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As of September 16, 2026, Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA) trades at $49.99. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $49.99, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $90.00 across 28 analysts. RSI at 11 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $65.35.
Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA)
Cava Group, Inc. NYSE
$49.99
-4.900 (-8.93%)
At close: Sep 15, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Cava Group (CAVA) is currently trading at $49.99, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($65.35 and $72.30), signaling a bearish trend. The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at an oversold 10.81, indicating potential for a short-term bounce but overall weakness. Despite a median analyst target price of $90, suggesting an 80% upside, the overwhelming insider selling activity, with $291.8 million in dispositions versus $1.1 million in purchases, presents a major bearish signal. This heavy selling pressure, coupled with a consensus score of 21, warrants caution. The company operates in the restaurant sector, facing competition from established players like Chipotle (CMG) and Panera Bread. While Cava has demonstrated revenue growth of 31.3% and positive profit margins, the current valuation metrics and insider sentiment are concerning. The stock's health score of 2 reflects these headwinds, and investors should closely monitor insider activity and technical levels for further direction.
CAVA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$54.20
Day Range
$49.72 to $54.30
Prev Close
$54.89
Volume
7.39M
52-Week Range
$43.41 to $98.79
Market Cap
$5.84B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+380%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
CAVA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CAVA beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
CAVA Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Cava Group (CAVA) is currently trading below its key moving averages, with its price below the 50-day SMA of $65.35 and the 200-day SMA of $72.30, indicating a bearish trend. The 20-day EMA also sits above the current price at $61.01, reinforcing the downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is significantly oversold at 10.81, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound, but this is occurring within a strong downtrend. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the recent price action, but resistance can be observed at the 20-day EMA ($61.01) and the 50-day SMA ($65.35). Volume has been elevated, with the latest volume at 7.39 million, significantly above the average of 3.49 million, indicating strong selling pressure.
ProTips
- Monitor insider trading activity closely; the current heavy net selling by insiders is a strong bearish signal for Cava Group (CAVA).
- Given the oversold RSI and price below key moving averages, consider waiting for a confirmed technical reversal or a more attractive entry point before considering a position in CAVA.
- The stock's high valuation relative to sector peers and its own profitability metrics presents a significant risk; ensure any investment aligns with a high-risk tolerance.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $291.8 million worth of Cava Group (CAVA) stock versus only $1.1 million in purchases, indicating a strong lack of confidence and potentially signaling further price declines.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The stock's RSI is at an extremely oversold level of 10.81, and it is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($65.35 and $72.30), suggesting strong bearish momentum.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Positive Earnings Surprises
Cava Group (CAVA) has a history of beating EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 5.56% surprise in the latest report, which could provide short-term support if repeated.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Analyst Price Targets
The median analyst price target for Cava Group (CAVA) is $90, representing a significant potential upside of 80% from the current price, though this contrasts sharply with insider sentiment and current technicals.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsMarket Outlook
The outlook for Cava Group (CAVA) is bearish in the near to medium term, primarily due to extreme insider selling and a highly stretched valuation. Despite a median analyst target price of $90, the current price action and sentiment suggest a high probability of further declines before any sustained recovery. The stock's oversold technical condition might lead to a short-term bounce, but the underlying bearish signals are strong. Upside potential hinges on a significant shift in insider sentiment or a substantial re-rating of the stock to align with sector valuations. Conversely, continued insider selling, failure to meet growth expectations, or a broader market downturn could push the stock towards its downside projection of $18.77. Investors should be wary of the current premium valuation in light of these risks.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 5.84B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 99.79 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.5600 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 98.79 |
| 52 Week Low | 43.41 |
Cava Group (CAVA) exhibits a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 99.79, which is substantially higher than the sector average of 20.8, suggesting a significant valuation premium. Its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 4.75, also above the sector average of 1.9. The company's Return on Equity (ROE) is 8.32%, below the sector average of 12.4, while its Profit Margin of 4.82% and Operating Margin of 7.62% are respectable but do not fully justify the high valuation. While the company has achieved a revenue growth of 31.3%, its current valuation appears stretched when compared to sector averages and its own profitability metrics. The Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.62 is in line with the sector average, indicating a manageable debt load. However, the combination of high valuation multiples and insider selling pressure raises concerns about the sustainability of its current stock price.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Cava Group (CAVA) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $0.19, beating the estimate of $0.18 by 5.56%. This positive surprise was accompanied by a significant price increase of 14.24% on the earnings date. Prior quarters also showed positive EPS surprises, including a 17.65% beat in the quarter ending June 2026 (reported May 19) and a 33.33% beat in the quarter ending March 2026. However, the most recent earnings report for the quarter ending September 2025 showed a 0% surprise with a slight price decrease.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Cava Group (CAVA) is the overwhelming insider selling, with over $291 million in dispositions against only $1.1 million in purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the stock's current valuation is exceptionally high relative to its sector peers and profitability, with a P/E ratio nearing 100 and trading significantly below its moving averages. The significantly oversold RSI suggests a potential for short-term volatility, but the overall technical picture remains bearish, with the price well below key support levels.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 10.81 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -3.93 |
| SMA 50 | 65.35 |
| SMA 200 | 72.30 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $65.35, 200-day: $72.30), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 10.8 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.46
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.43
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with CAVA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
CAVA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$50.99
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$49.99
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$58.74
MAX LOSS
-15.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (10.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$48.44
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$45.89
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$43.34
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
CAVA is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 4.38%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 16, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CAVA in June 2023 would be worth about $13,104 today, compared with about $17,235 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CAVA today could grow to about $21,270 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $161,366 and a bear case around $2,804. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CAVA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $67.61 for CAVA by 2030 in the base case, from $49.99 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $18.77. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CAVA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $28.40 | $53.91 | $102 |
| 2028 | $23.49 | $58.13 | $144 |
| 2029 | $20.66 | $62.69 | $190 |
| 2030 | $18.77 | $67.61 | $244 |
| 2031 | $17.40 | $72.91 | $306 |
| 2032 | $16.36 | $78.62 | $378 |
| 2033 | $15.56 | $84.78 | $462 |
| 2034 | $14.93 | $91.43 | $560 |
| 2035 | $14.42 | $98.60 | $674 |
| 2036 | $14.02 | $106 | $807 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CAVA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
CAVA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.1M
6 Transactions
Sold
$291.8M
36 Transactions
Insiders
18
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$7.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | ARTAL INTERNATIONAL S.C.A.
Unknown
|
Sell | 8.0M | $1.1B |
| Aug 26, 2024 | ARTAL INTERNATIONAL S.C.A.
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 6.0M | $698.2M |
| Jun 15, 2026 | ARTAL PARTICIPATIONS S.A.R.L.
Unknown
|
Sell | 3.0M | $270.9M |
| Jun 5, 2024 | ARTAL INTERNATIONAL S.C.A.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 3.0M | $261.8M |
| Jun 5, 2024 | SHAICH RONALD M
Director
|
Sell | 2.6M | $222.5M |
| Dec 9, 2024 | SHAICH RONALD M
Director
|
Sell | 1.4M | $204.3M |
| Feb 27, 2024 | ARTAL INTERNATIONAL S.C.A.
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 3.5M | $187.6M |
| Mar 21, 2024 | ARTAL INTERNATIONAL S.C.A.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.0M | $132.5M |
| Sep 9, 2024 | SHAICH RONALD M
Director
|
Sell | 945.6K | $111.5M |
| Mar 4, 2024 | SHAICH RONALD M
Former
|
Sell | 1.5M | $85.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Cava Group (CAVA) stock a buy right now?
Cava Group (CAVA) is currently rated as a Sell with a consensus score of 21. Despite a median analyst target price of $90, indicating an 80% upside, heavy insider selling and oversold technicals suggest significant downside risk. The stock is trading well below its key moving averages, and its valuation is substantially higher than sector averages.
What is Cava Group's (CAVA) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Cava Group's (CAVA) stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $67.61, a downside projection of $18.77, and an upside projection of $243.55. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
What are the main risks facing Cava Group (CAVA)?
The primary risks for Cava Group (CAVA) include substantial insider selling totaling over $291 million, a highly stretched valuation with a P/E ratio near 100, and bearish technical indicators showing the stock trading below key moving averages. These factors suggest potential for further price declines.
How does Cava Group (CAVA) compare to its sector peers?
Cava Group (CAVA) trades at a significant premium compared to its Consumer Cyclical peers. Its P/E ratio is nearly 100 versus a sector average of 20.8, and its P/S ratio is 4.75 compared to the sector average of 1.9. While its revenue growth is strong at 31.3%, its ROE of 8.32% is below the sector average of 12.4.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Cava Group (CAVA)?
The Wall Street consensus for Cava Group (CAVA) is predominantly positive, with 28 analysts covering the stock. The consensus rating is Buy, with a median price target of $90, suggesting an 80% upside from the current price. However, the AI consensus rating is Sell, indicating a divergence in outlook.
What was Cava Group's (CAVA) most recent earnings performance?
In its most recent report for the quarter ending June 2026, Cava Group (CAVA) reported an EPS of $0.19, beating estimates by 5.56%, and the stock price increased by 14.24%. Previous quarters also showed positive EPS surprises, contributing to a generally positive earnings trend.
What are the key catalysts or events to watch for Cava Group (CAVA)?
Key events to watch for Cava Group (CAVA) include upcoming earnings reports for further insight into revenue growth and profitability, and any changes in insider trading activity, which has recently shown significant selling pressure. Analyst rating changes and broader market sentiment towards growth stocks will also be important factors.