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As of September 27, 2026, Okta Inc. (OKTA) trades at $195.19. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $190.00, 2.7% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $190.00 across 44 analysts. RSI at 64 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $158.19.
Okta Inc. (OKTA)
Okta Inc. NASDAQ
$195.19
-11.45 (-5.54%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Okta Inc. is currently trading at $195.19, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($158.19 and $109.17), signaling positive short-to-medium term technical momentum. The company's recent earnings have shown a mixed but generally improving trend, with the latest quarter beating estimates by 9.38% and driving a significant price increase. However, a substantial amount of insider selling, totaling $57.8 million against only $267.4 thousand in purchases, presents a significant concern for investor confidence. Valuation metrics show Okta trading at a premium to its sector peers, with a Price-to-Sales ratio of 11.10 compared to the sector median of 7.5. While its revenue growth of 10.6% is below the sector average of 24.1%, its profit margin of 9.63% and operating margin of 13.29% are strong. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is exceptionally low at 0.01, indicating a healthy balance sheet. The median analyst price target of $190.00 suggests a slight downside from the current trading price, underscoring the mixed outlook.
OKTA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$204.00
Day Range
$195.04 to $205.00
Prev Close
$206.64
Volume
3.99M
52-Week Range
$62.66 to $212.50
Market Cap
$34.12B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+246%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
OKTA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, OKTA beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
OKTA Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-2.66% Downside
Median of 44 analysts (12-month)
$190.00
AI Technical Analysis
Okta Inc. exhibits bullish momentum, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.31, indicating strength without being overbought. The stock is trading above its 20-day EMA ($181.79), 50-day SMA ($158.19), and 200-day SMA ($109.17), confirming an uptrend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive at 12.94, further supporting bullish sentiment. Key support levels are identified by the 50-day SMA at $158.19 and the 20-day EMA at $181.79. Resistance is suggested by the current price action and the median analyst target of $190.00. Trading volume has been slightly below average recently, which could indicate a pause in the upward momentum. The overall chart structure points to continued strength, but the proximity to the median target and the heavy insider selling warrant caution.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant signal to watch.
- Given the stock is trading above key moving averages, consider using the 50-day SMA ($158.19) as a potential support level for risk management.
- Okta's premium valuation warrants a disciplined approach to position sizing, especially given the current analyst target suggests limited upside.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $57.8 million worth of stock against minimal purchases, indicating potential concerns about future performance or valuation.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Strong Earnings Beat in Latest Quarter
Okta reported an EPS beat of 9.38% for the quarter ending September 2026, driving a significant 28.63% increase in stock price.
Source: Earnings ReportNeutral
Steady Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts project around 10% year-over-year revenue growth for the current and next quarters, indicating continued, albeit moderate, business expansion.
Source: Analyst EstimatesNeutral
Median Analyst Price Target Below Current Price
The median analyst price target of $190.00 is slightly below the current trading price of $195.19, suggesting limited immediate upside.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
Okta Inc.'s outlook is cautiously optimistic, balancing strong technical momentum and solid profitability against significant insider selling and a premium valuation. The company is expected to continue its steady revenue growth, projected at 10% for the upcoming quarters, and maintain its strong profit margins. The median analyst price target of $190.00 suggests a slight downside from the current price, indicating that the market may be pricing in some of the concerns. Key catalysts for upside could include continued strong earnings beats and acceleration in revenue growth, potentially justifying the current valuation. Conversely, sustained heavy insider selling or a broader market downturn could pressure the stock. The company's low debt and strong operating margins provide a buffer against significant financial distress, but the lack of strong insider selling is a notable headwind.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 34.12B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 117.58 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.66 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 212.50 |
| 52 Week Low | 62.66 |
Okta Inc. trades at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 11.10, which is significantly higher than the sector median of 7.5, suggesting a premium valuation. Despite this, the company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 9.63% and an operating margin of 13.29%, outperforming the sector median ROE of 13.4% with its own ROE of 4.31%. The company's balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.01, providing financial flexibility. While revenue growth of 10.6% lags the sector average of 24.1%, the company's ability to translate sales into profit is a positive. The current valuation appears stretched relative to sector averages, but this is partially offset by its strong margins and minimal debt. Investors should monitor whether future revenue growth can accelerate to justify the current premium.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Okta Inc. has demonstrated a pattern of beating earnings estimates in recent quarters, with the latest report for the quarter ending September 2026 showing an EPS of $1.05 against an estimate of $0.96, a 9.38% surprise that coincided with a 28.63% stock price increase. Prior to this, the quarter ending June 2026 also saw a slight beat. However, the quarter ending March 2026 reported a negative EPS surprise of -14.29% and a price drop of -7.13%. The company's revenue growth is projected to be around 10% year-over-year for the current and next quarters, indicating steady but not explosive expansion.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Okta Inc. is the heavy insider selling, with over $57.8 million in dispositions versus minimal purchases, which could signal a lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the stock is trading at a premium valuation compared to its sector peers, with a P/S ratio of 11.10 against the sector median of 7.5, making it vulnerable to market corrections. The median analyst price target of $190.00 is also slightly below the current trading price, suggesting limited near-term upside potential.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 64.31 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 12.94 |
| SMA 50 | 158.19 |
| SMA 200 | 109.17 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($158.19) above the 200-day SMA ($109.17), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.38
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.18
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with OKTA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
OKTA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$193.24
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$195.19
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$174.76
MAX LOSS
-9.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (64.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$199.04
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$202.90
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$208.70
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
OKTA is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 6.37%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in OKTA in April 2017 would be worth about $83,024 today, compared with about $32,795 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in OKTA today could grow to about $38,586 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $292,738 and a bear case around $5,086. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
OKTA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $335 for OKTA by 2030 in the base case, from $195 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $92.99. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on OKTA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $118 | $223 | $424 |
| 2028 | $103 | $256 | $633 |
| 2029 | $96.46 | $293 | $888 |
| 2030 | $92.99 | $335 | $1,207 |
| 2031 | $91.49 | $383 | $1,607 |
| 2032 | $91.33 | $439 | $2,109 |
| 2033 | $92.18 | $502 | $2,737 |
| 2034 | $93.86 | $575 | $3,522 |
| 2035 | $96.24 | $658 | $4,499 |
| 2036 | $99.27 | $753 | $5,714 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using OKTA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. OKTA is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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OKTA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$267.4K
1 Transactions
Sold
$57.8M
38 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2020 | KERREST JACQUES FREDERIC
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 403.5K | $84.9M |
| Jan 24, 2025 | KERREST JACQUES FREDERIC
Director
|
Sell | 525.0K | $45.8M |
| Jul 7, 2021 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A
Director
|
Sell | 159.6K | $39.7M |
| Mar 5, 2025 | KERREST JACQUES FREDERIC
Director
|
Sell | 313.9K | $34.0M |
| Jun 22, 2020 | MCKINNON TODD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 159.6K | $31.7M |
| Mar 20, 2025 | MCKINNON TODD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 234.3K | $26.5M |
| Jul 22, 2024 | MCKINNON TODD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 272.4K | $25.6M |
| Oct 13, 2020 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A
Director
|
Sell | 100.0K | $24.6M |
| Aug 3, 2021 | HOROWITZ BENJAMIN A
Director
|
Sell | 80.4K | $19.7M |
| Dec 20, 2024 | MCKINNON TODD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 233.0K | $19.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Okta Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Okta Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $334.99 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $92.99, while the upside projection reaches $1206.76. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Okta Inc. stock a buy right now?
Okta Inc. is currently trading at $195.19, with a median analyst price target of $190.00, suggesting a slight downside. While technical indicators show bullish momentum, significant insider selling and a premium valuation warrant caution, leading to a 'Hold' consensus rating.
What are the key technical levels for Okta Inc. stock?
Okta Inc. is trading above its 50-day SMA of $158.19 and its 200-day SMA of $109.17, indicating a positive trend. The RSI is at 64.31, showing bullish momentum, and the stock is above its 20-day EMA of $181.79.
How does Okta Inc.'s valuation compare to its peers?
Okta Inc. trades at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 11.10, which is higher than the sector median of 7.5. Its revenue growth of 10.6% also lags the sector average of 24.1%, indicating a premium valuation relative to its current growth trajectory.
What is the outlook for Okta Inc.'s earnings?
Okta Inc. has a history of beating earnings estimates, with its most recent quarter showing a 9.38% EPS surprise. Revenue growth is expected to remain steady around 10% year-over-year for the upcoming quarters.
Are there any significant insider transactions for Okta Inc.?
Yes, insiders have been net sellers, with $825.7M in total sales versus $267K in total purchases in recent filings. This heavy selling pressure is a notable factor in the stock's outlook.
What are the main risks facing Okta Inc.?
The primary risks for Okta Inc. include significant insider selling, a premium valuation relative to sector peers, and a median analyst price target that suggests limited near-term upside.