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As of September 11, 2026, Diageo plc Sponsored (DEO) trades at $86.31. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $86.31, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $108.00 across 8 analysts. RSI at 27 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $88.38.
Diageo plc Sponsored (DEO)
Diageo plc Sponsored NYSE
$86.31
0.2100 (0.24%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Diageo plc (DEO) is currently trading at $86.31, below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $88.38. The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.96, indicating oversold conditions. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $108.00, suggesting a potential 25.1% upside. However, recent insider transactions show a net seller position, with $12.6M in total sales versus $425K in total purchases, signaling moderate insider selling pressure. The company's revenue growth has been negative at -1.7%, contrasting with the sector median of 5.3%. This combination of technical weakness, negative revenue trends, and insider selling warrants caution.
DEO Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$86.37
Day Range
$85.74 to $86.92
Prev Close
$86.10
Volume
891.6K
52-Week Range
$72.45 to $113.28
Market Cap
$47.98B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs VDC
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (14% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
DEO Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Diageo plc (DEO) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $88.38, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The stock is, however, above its 200-day SMA of $85.71. The RSI is significantly oversold at 26.96, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. MACD is negative at -0.60, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Volume on the latest day was 891,600, slightly above the average of 849,610, but not indicative of strong conviction. Key support is seen at the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA.
ProTips
- Given the oversold RSI and trading below the 50-day SMA, consider waiting for a technical bounce or a clearer fundamental catalyst before initiating a long position in DEO.
- The negative revenue growth trend for Diageo plc (DEO) is a key concern that warrants close monitoring against sector peers experiencing positive growth.
- With insider selling outweighing buying, it is prudent to be cautious and look for stronger conviction signals before considering an investment in DEO.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Continued Revenue Decline
Diageo's revenue growth has turned negative (-1.7%), significantly underperforming the sector median of 5.3%. Persistent declines could pressure the stock further.
Source: Internal AnalysisBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $170.3K worth of stock versus only $1.9K in purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management.
Source: Insider Transactions DataBullish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 26.96, indicating the stock is oversold and may be due for a short-term bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Analyst Price Target Upside
The median analyst price target of $108.00 suggests a potential 25.1% upside from the current price of $86.31.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
Diageo plc (DEO) faces a challenging outlook, with current technical indicators suggesting further downside pressure. The stock is trading below key moving averages and exhibits oversold conditions, compounded by negative revenue growth and a premium valuation relative to its peers. The median analyst target price of $108.00 suggests potential upside, but the current fundamental and technical backdrop points towards a bearish near-term trajectory. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in insider sentiment for potential catalysts.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 192.00B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.66 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.12 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.85% |
| 52 Week High | 113.28 |
| 52 Week Low | 72.45 |
Diageo plc (DEO) exhibits a P/E ratio of 27.66, which is above the sector median of 24.2, suggesting a premium valuation relative to peers. Earnings per share (EPS) stands at $3.12. The company's revenue growth is negative at -1.7%, significantly lagging the sector median of 5.3%. While the company pays a dividend yield of approximately 3.85%, the declining revenue and premium valuation raise concerns about its fundamental strength compared to the industry average. The current price of $86.31 is below the fair value estimate, but the negative revenue trend and higher P/E ratio temper bullish sentiment.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Diageo plc (DEO) recently reported an EPS of $2.13 for its January 2026 earnings, beating the estimate of $1.94 by 9.79% and resulting in a 2.15% price increase. The prior quarter showed a significant beat on EPS estimate (-0.32 actual vs -2.13 estimate), also leading to a price increase. However, an earlier quarter showed a substantial miss (-38.75% surprise), indicating some volatility in earnings performance. The forward revenue estimates suggest a slight contraction of -3.00% for the current year, followed by a modest 1.00% growth next year.
Key Risks
Diageo plc (DEO) faces risks from its declining revenue growth, which is currently at -1.7% compared to the sector median of 5.3%. Moderate insider selling, with sales significantly outweighing purchases, suggests a lack of strong conviction from management. The stock's current valuation appears stretched relative to its negative top-line performance and the broader sector averages.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 26.96 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.60 |
| SMA 50 | 88.38 |
| SMA 200 | 85.71 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($88.38) above the 200-day SMA ($85.71), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 27.0 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.07
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
DEO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$88.04
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$86.31
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$90.94
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (27.0) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$83.63
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$79.23
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$74.83
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for DEO is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in DEO in September 2016 would be worth about $7,667 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in DEO today could grow to about $11,743 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $30,787 and a bear case around $4,479. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DEO Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $92.04 for DEO by 2030 in the base case, from $86.31 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $50.03. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DEO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $64.66 | $87.71 | $119 |
| 2028 | $57.92 | $89.13 | $137 |
| 2029 | $53.42 | $90.57 | $154 |
| 2030 | $50.03 | $92.04 | $169 |
| 2031 | $47.31 | $93.53 | $185 |
| 2032 | $45.05 | $95.04 | $201 |
| 2033 | $43.12 | $96.58 | $216 |
| 2034 | $41.44 | $98.15 | $232 |
| 2035 | $39.97 | $99.74 | $249 |
| 2036 | $38.66 | $101 | $266 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using DEO's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
DEO Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.9K
3 Transactions
Sold
$170.3K
5 Transactions
Insiders
3
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$21.5K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 14.5K | $2.2M |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Crew (Debra Ann)
|
Sell | 13.3K | $2.1M |
| Apr 24, 2023 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 8.7K | $1.7M |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Crew (Debra Ann)
|
Sell | 8.6K | $1.4M |
| Apr 3, 2023 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 6.1K | $1.1M |
| Apr 3, 2023 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 4.0K | $728.4K |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 4.7K | $712.8K |
| Apr 4, 2023 | Schubert (Claudia)
|
Sell | 2.6K | $468.9K |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Chandrashekar (Lavanya)
|
Sell | 2.6K | $422.1K |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 2.3K | $347.6K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Diageo plc (DEO) stock a buy right now?
Diageo plc (DEO) is currently rated 'Sell' by our AI consensus, with a score of 20 out of 100. While Wall Street analysts have a 'Hold' consensus and a median price target of $108.00 suggesting potential upside, the stock exhibits technical weakness and negative revenue growth.
What is Diageo plc's (DEO) fair value?
Diageo plc (DEO) is currently trading at $86.31, which is below our fair value estimate. However, this is influenced by current market conditions and the stock's recent performance.
What are the biggest risks for Diageo plc (DEO)?
The primary risks for Diageo plc (DEO) include declining revenue growth, moderate insider selling, and a valuation that appears premium relative to its current performance and sector peers. The stock's oversold technical indicators also suggest potential for further price declines.
How does Diageo plc (DEO) compare to its sector averages?
Diageo plc (DEO) has a higher P/E ratio (27.66) than the sector median (24.2) and negative revenue growth (-1.7%) compared to the sector median of 5.3%. Its Return on Equity (ROE) of 19.7% is in line with the sector median.
What is the analyst consensus for Diageo plc (DEO)?
The Wall Street consensus for Diageo plc (DEO) is 'Hold', with 8 analysts providing ratings. There are 0 Strong Buys, 4 Buys, 3 Holds, and 1 Sell. The consensus score is 59 out of 100.
What is Diageo plc's (DEO) projected revenue growth for the next year?
Analysts project Diageo plc (DEO) to achieve revenue growth of approximately 1.00% for the next fiscal year, following an estimated contraction of -3.00% for the current year.
Are insiders buying or selling Diageo plc (DEO) stock?
Insiders at Diageo plc (DEO) are net sellers, with total sales of $170.3K and total purchases of only $1.9K in recent filings. This indicates moderate selling pressure from management.