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As of October 10, 2026, Diageo plc Sponsored (DEO) trades at $86.73. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $86.73, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $110.00 across 8 analysts. RSI at 50 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $89.48.
Diageo plc Sponsored (DEO)
Diageo plc Sponsored NYSE
$86.73
-0.2500 (-0.29%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Diageo plc (DEO) is currently trading at $86.73, below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $89.48 but above its 200-day SMA of $85.36. The company operates in the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries industry within the Consumer Defensive sector, an industry where peers exhibit a median P/E of 24.2 and revenue growth of 5.3%. Diageo's own P/E ratio stands at 27.78, slightly above the sector average, with a price-to-sales ratio of 2.45 and a return on equity of 14.99%. Recent performance shows a slight revenue contraction of -1.7%, contrasting with the sector's positive growth. While analysts maintain a generally positive outlook with a median price target of $110, implying a 26.8% upside, recent insider activity indicates moderate selling pressure. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.71, which is higher than the sector average, suggesting a more leveraged financial structure. The consensus rating is Buy, supported by a Wall Street score of 66, but the moderate insider selling and negative revenue growth warrant careful consideration.
DEO Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$87.03
Day Range
$86.36 to $87.15
Prev Close
$86.98
Volume
490.5K
52-Week Range
$72.45 to $102.74
Market Cap
$48.23B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs PBJ
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (15% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
DEO Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, DEO beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
DEO Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+26.83% Upside
Median of 8 analysts (12-month)
$110.00
AI Technical Analysis
Diageo plc (DEO) is trading at $86.73, positioned below its 50-day SMA of $89.48 but above its 200-day SMA of $85.36, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49.6, falling into the neutral momentum category, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD is currently negative at -0.89, reinforcing the neutral to slightly bearish momentum. Key support is observed near the 200-day SMA at $85.36, while resistance lies around the 50-day SMA at $89.48. Trading volume has been significantly below average, down 51.4%, which may limit the conviction behind any immediate price movements. The current chart structure suggests a period of consolidation or a potential shift in momentum, with price action needing to decisively break above the 50-day SMA to signal a stronger bullish trend.
ProTips
- Consider the moderate insider selling trend, with $434.2K in sales versus $1.9K in purchases, as a signal of caution from management.
- Diageo plc (DEO) is trading near its 200-day SMA, indicating potential support around $85.36, but is below its 50-day SMA at $89.48, suggesting short-term weakness.
- With a dividend yield of 3.83%, investors should monitor the company's ability to sustain payouts given the recent revenue contraction and leverage.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Earnings Surprise in Recent Quarters
Diageo plc (DEO) has demonstrated positive EPS surprises in its two most recent reported quarters, indicating improving operational performance and potentially stronger future earnings.
Source: Earnings ReportsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold a net of $432,362 in shares recently, with total sales significantly outweighing total purchases, suggesting a degree of caution or divestment among management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Negative Revenue Growth
The company reported a -1.7% revenue growth, which contrasts with the positive growth seen in the broader Consumer Defensive sector, indicating potential market share challenges or demand weakness.
Source: Company FilingsNeutral
Analyst Consensus Remains Positive
Despite some recent downgrades, the overall Wall Street consensus remains 'Buy' with a median price target of $110, implying a 26.8% upside potential.
Source: Analyst RatingsMarket Outlook
The outlook for Diageo plc (DEO) is cautiously optimistic, with a median analyst price target of $110 suggesting a potential 26.8% upside from the current price of $86.73. Forward estimates anticipate EPS growth to $6.72 for the current year and $7.19 for next year, with projected revenue growth of 1.00% for the next fiscal year. The company's neutral RSI and trading above its 200-day SMA provide some technical support. However, potential headwinds include the current negative revenue growth of -1.7%, a P/E ratio above the sector average, and moderate insider selling. A decisive break above the 50-day SMA at $89.48 would be a key bullish signal, while a failure to improve revenue growth or increased selling pressure could lead to a retest of the 200-day SMA support level.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 192.94B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.78 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.12 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.83% |
| 52 Week High | 102.74 |
| 52 Week Low | 72.45 |
Diageo plc (DEO) presents a mixed fundamental picture with a P/E ratio of 27.78, which is higher than the sector median of 24.2, suggesting a potential valuation premium. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 2.45, also slightly above the sector's 2.2. The company's return on equity is 14.99%, below the sector average of 19.7%, indicating less efficient profit generation relative to shareholder equity. Profit margins are notable, with a net profit margin of 8.84% and an operating margin of 27.04%. However, revenue growth has recently turned negative at -1.7%, contrasting with the sector's 5.3% median growth. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.71 is higher than the sector average, indicating a more leveraged balance sheet. While forward estimates suggest modest revenue growth of 1.00% next year and EPS growth of 6.9%, the current negative revenue trend and higher valuation metrics warrant caution.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Diageo plc (DEO) has shown mixed earnings performance in recent quarters. The most recent reported quarter to December 2025 saw an EPS of $2.13, beating the estimate of $1.94 by 9.79% and resulting in a 2.15% price increase. Prior to that, the quarter to December 2025 reported an EPS of -0.32, significantly beating the estimate of -2.13 by 84.98% with a 1.48% price increase. However, the quarter to December 2022 showed a substantial miss, with actual EPS of $0.49 against an estimate of $0.80, a -38.75% surprise, and a 0.52% price change. This pattern suggests some volatility in earnings beats and misses, with a recent positive trend. Forward estimates indicate EPS growth to $6.72 for the current year and $7.19 for next year, suggesting an expectation of continued earnings improvement.
Key Risks
Diageo plc (DEO) faces several key risks, including a higher-than-sector-average P/E ratio of 27.78 and a recent negative revenue growth of -1.7%, which contrasts with sector peers' positive performance. Moderate insider selling, with total sales of $434.2K versus $1.9K in purchases, signals potential caution from management. Also, the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.71 is elevated compared to the sector median, increasing financial leverage risk.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 49.60 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.89 |
| SMA 50 | 89.48 |
| SMA 200 | 85.36 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($89.48) above the 200-day SMA ($85.36), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.07
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.14
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with DEO? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
DEO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$85.86
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$86.73
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$83.29
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (49.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$88.44
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$90.16
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$92.73
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for DEO is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in DEO in October 2016 would be worth about $7,711 today, compared with about $36,018 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in DEO today could grow to about $11,782 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $30,916 and a bear case around $4,490. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DEO Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $92.61 for DEO by 2030 in the base case, from $86.73 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $50.31. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DEO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $64.98 | $88.16 | $120 |
| 2028 | $58.22 | $89.62 | $138 |
| 2029 | $53.71 | $91.10 | $155 |
| 2030 | $50.31 | $92.61 | $170 |
| 2031 | $47.59 | $94.14 | $186 |
| 2032 | $45.33 | $95.70 | $202 |
| 2033 | $43.40 | $97.28 | $218 |
| 2034 | $41.73 | $98.89 | $234 |
| 2035 | $40.25 | $101 | $251 |
| 2036 | $38.94 | $102 | $268 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using DEO's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
DEO Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.9K
3 Transactions
Sold
$434.2K
10 Transactions
Insiders
3
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$33.5K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 14.5K | $2.2M |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Crew (Debra Ann)
|
Sell | 13.3K | $2.1M |
| Apr 24, 2023 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 8.7K | $1.7M |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Crew (Debra Ann)
|
Sell | 8.6K | $1.4M |
| Apr 3, 2023 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 6.1K | $1.1M |
| Apr 3, 2023 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 4.0K | $728.4K |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 4.7K | $712.8K |
| Apr 4, 2023 | Schubert (Claudia)
|
Sell | 2.6K | $468.9K |
| Sep 6, 2023 | Chandrashekar (Lavanya)
|
Sell | 2.6K | $422.1K |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Kennedy (John)
|
Sell | 2.3K | $347.6K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Diageo plc (DEO) stock a buy right now?
Diageo plc (DEO) is currently rated as a Hold by our AI, with a consensus score of 55. Wall Street analysts have a more positive 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $110, suggesting a 26.8% upside from the current price of $86.73. However, recent negative revenue growth and moderate insider selling present headwinds.
What is Diageo plc's (DEO) fair value and upside potential?
Diageo plc's (DEO) current fair value is assessed at $86.73, indicating no immediate upside based on this metric. However, the median analyst price target is $110, suggesting a potential upside of 26.8% from the current stock price.
How does Diageo plc (DEO) compare to its sector peers?
Diageo plc (DEO) operates in the Consumer Defensive sector. Its P/E ratio of 27.78 is higher than the sector median of 24.2, and its return on equity of 14.99% is below the sector average of 19.7%. While its revenue growth is currently negative at -1.7%, the sector median is 5.3%.
What are the key risks facing Diageo plc (DEO)?
Key risks for Diageo plc (DEO) include its elevated P/E ratio, recent negative revenue growth, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.71 which is higher than the sector average. Moderate insider selling also suggests potential caution among management.
What is the outlook for Diageo plc (DEO) earnings?
Diageo plc (DEO) has shown a mixed but recently positive trend in earnings surprises. Forward estimates project EPS growth to $6.72 for the current year and $7.19 for next year, indicating an expectation of continued earnings improvement.
What are the recent analyst ratings for Diageo plc (DEO)?
Recent analyst ratings for Diageo plc (DEO) show a mix, with upgrades to 'Buy' from TD Cowen and Jefferies, while UBS downgraded to 'Neutral'. The overall Wall Street consensus is 'Buy', with 8 analysts covering the stock, resulting in a Wall Street score of 66.
What is Diageo plc's (DEO) dividend yield and payout?
Diageo plc (DEO) offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.83%, with a dividend rate of $3.32. The company has a history of mixed earnings performance, but recent quarters have shown positive surprises.