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As of September 26, 2026, Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) trades at $19.55. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $19.55, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $27.00 across 14 analysts. RSI at 28 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $24.89.
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
Papa John's International, Inc. NASDAQ
$19.55
-0.6700 (-3.31%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Papa John's International (PZZA) is currently trading at $19.55, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($24.89 and $32.61). The company's revenue growth has been negative, contracting by 8.8%, and its net profit margin is a slim 1.40%. Despite these fundamental challenges, the stock offers a dividend yield of 9.41%, with a rate of $1.84. Recent analyst ratings show a shift towards Hold, with 11 out of 14 analysts maintaining this stance, contributing to a Wall Street consensus score of 50. The median analyst price target of $27.00 suggests an upside of 38.1% from the current price, but the stock's oversold technical condition and negative revenue trajectory present considerable risks. Insiders have not engaged in any open-market transactions, with all recorded activities being stock grants, indicating no current management conviction in buying or selling the stock. The company's balance sheet shows a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.02, suggesting minimal leverage. However, the negative revenue growth and declining profitability metrics, coupled with a bearish technical setup, cast doubt on the sustainability of its current valuation and dividend payout.
PZZA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$20.23
Day Range
$19.31 to $20.46
Prev Close
$20.22
Volume
1.98M
52-Week Range
$19.31 to $55.74
Market Cap
$643.62M
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+21%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
PZZA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, PZZA beat estimates 1 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
PZZA Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
At $19.55, Papa John's International (PZZA) exhibits bearish momentum, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28.23, indicating an oversold condition. The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($24.89 and $32.61), reinforcing a downtrend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also negative at -1.42, further signaling downward pressure. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 1.98 million shares, 21.2% above the average. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current trend, but the stock is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average of $21.37. The combination of oversold RSI and a firmly established downtrend suggests that while a short-term bounce is possible, the broader trend remains bearish without a clear catalyst for reversal.
ProTips
- Given the oversold RSI and negative revenue growth, consider waiting for a confirmed technical breakout or a significant improvement in fundamental performance before initiating a position in PZZA.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($24.89 and $32.61), indicating a bearish trend. Monitor for a sustained move above these levels as a potential signal of trend reversal.
- With a dividend yield of 9.41%, investors should assess the company's ability to maintain this payout given its current profitability and revenue trends.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Continued Revenue Decline
Papa John's International (PZZA) reported an 8.8% decrease in revenue growth, signaling ongoing challenges in sales performance that could pressure the stock further.
Source: Company FilingsBearish
Bearish Technical Setup
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($24.89 and $32.61), with an oversold RSI of 28.23, indicating strong downward momentum and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus
With 11 out of 14 analysts rating PZZA as 'Hold', the market sentiment is neutral, reflecting uncertainty about the company's future performance and valuation.
Source: Analyst RatingsNeutral
Dividend Payout
Papa John's International (PZZA) offers a dividend yield of 9.41%, providing some income to shareholders, though its sustainability is questionable given the company's financial performance.
Source: Dividend DataMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Papa John's International (PZZA) suggests continued pressure on the stock price, potentially testing lower support levels around its current fair value of $19.55. The oversold technical conditions might lead to a short-term bounce, but the persistent negative revenue growth and inconsistent earnings present significant headwinds for any sustained recovery. Wall Street's median price target of $27.00 implies a 38.1% upside, but this appears optimistic given the current fundamental and technical backdrop. Upside potential could materialize if the company demonstrates a clear turnaround in revenue growth and profitability, potentially driven by successful new product launches or market share gains. Conversely, further deterioration in sales, increased competition, or a failure to manage costs effectively could push the stock towards its downside projection of $5.47. The current 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street, with a score of 50, reflects this uncertainty.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 643.62M |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.19 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.8000 |
| Dividend Yield | 9.41% |
| 52 Week High | 55.74 |
| 52 Week Low | 19.31 |
Papa John's International (PZZA) trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.19, which is above the sector median of 20.8, indicating a potential valuation premium. Its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 0.34, below the sector median of 1.9, suggesting the market is valuing its revenue less than its peers. The company's return on equity is negative at -6.83%, and its net profit margin is a thin 1.40%, contrasting with the sector median ROE of 12.4%. The company's balance sheet appears healthy with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.02, implying minimal financial leverage. However, the negative revenue growth of -8.8% and the weak profitability metrics raise concerns about the company's ability to generate value for shareholders. The current valuation does not appear justified by its fundamental performance, especially when compared to sector averages.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Papa John's International (PZZA) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $0.46, beating the estimated $0.45 by 2.22%, though the stock price declined by 0.69%. Prior to this, the company missed earnings estimates for the quarter ending March 2026, reporting an EPS of -1.00 against an estimate of -0.40, leading to a 4.22% price drop. The company has shown inconsistency in earnings performance, with significant misses in previous quarters, suggesting ongoing operational challenges.
Key Risks
Papa John's International (PZZA) faces significant risks stemming from its negative revenue growth of -8.8% and a contracting profit margin. The stock is trading below key technical indicators, including its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a bearish trend. Also, the company's earnings have been inconsistent, with notable misses in recent quarters, indicating potential operational difficulties that could further pressure its stock price.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 28.23 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.42 |
| SMA 50 | 24.89 |
| SMA 200 | 32.61 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $24.89, 200-day: $32.61), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 28.2 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with PZZA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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PZZA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$19.94
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$19.55
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$21.90
MAX LOSS
-9.8%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (28.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$18.94
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$17.95
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$16.95
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PZZA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PZZA in September 2016 would be worth about $2,395 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PZZA today could grow to about $6,168 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $34,064 and a bear case around $1,117. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PZZA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $16.11 for PZZA by 2030 in the base case, from $19.55 today (0.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $5.47. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PZZA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $10.85 | $18.63 | $31.98 |
| 2028 | $8.27 | $17.75 | $38.11 |
| 2029 | $6.63 | $16.91 | $43.12 |
| 2030 | $5.47 | $16.11 | $47.49 |
| 2031 | $4.59 | $15.35 | $51.41 |
| 2032 | $3.89 | $14.63 | $54.97 |
| 2033 | $3.34 | $13.94 | $58.23 |
| 2034 | $2.88 | $13.28 | $61.24 |
| 2035 | $2.50 | $12.65 | $64.02 |
| 2036 | $2.18 | $12.06 | $66.60 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PZZA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
PZZA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
None
No open-market sells
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
N/A
Values not reported
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2021 | SMITH JEFFREY CHAD
Director
|
Sell | 700.0K | $85.4M |
| Aug 19, 2021 | SMITH JEFFREY CHAD
Director
|
Sell | 700.0K | $78.4M |
| Feb 10, 2020 | SCHNATTER JOHN H
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.0M | $63.2M |
| Dec 4, 2019 | SCHNATTER JOHN H
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 194.2K | $11.7M |
| Dec 6, 2019 | SCHNATTER JOHN H
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 104.6K | $6.3M |
| Aug 13, 2020 | SWAYSLAND JACK H
Officer
|
Sell | 19.8K | $1.9M |
| Nov 24, 2021 | LYNCH ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 12.5K | $1.7M |
| Nov 30, 2020 | KIRTLEY OLIVIA F
Director
|
Sell | 14.1K | $1.1M |
| Aug 11, 2021 | OYLER CAROLINE MILLER
Officer
|
Sell | 6.9K | $830.8K |
| Jul 6, 2021 | SWAYSLAND JACK H
Officer
|
Sell | 7.2K | $754.7K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Papa John's International (PZZA) stock a buy right now?
Papa John's International (PZZA) is currently trading at $19.55 and is rated as a Sell. The stock is below its key moving averages and exhibits bearish momentum, with an oversold RSI. While the median analyst target price is $27.00, the negative revenue growth and inconsistent earnings suggest caution.
What is Papa John's International's (PZZA) fair value?
The current fair value estimate for Papa John's International (PZZA) is $19.55, which is its current trading price, indicating no immediate upside based on this metric. The stock's upside to the median analyst target price is 38.1%.
What are the biggest risks facing Papa John's International (PZZA)?
The primary risks for Papa John's International (PZZA) include negative revenue growth of -8.8%, a bearish technical setup with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($24.89 and $32.61), and inconsistent earnings performance. These factors suggest potential for further stock price declines.
How does Papa John's International (PZZA) compare to its sector averages?
Papa John's International (PZZA) trades at a higher P/E ratio (25.19) than the sector median (20.8) but has a lower P/S ratio (0.34) compared to the sector median (1.9). Its ROE is negative (-6.83%) against a sector median of 12.4%, and its revenue growth is negative (-8.8%) compared to a sector median of 7.2%.
What is the outlook for Papa John's International (PZZA) earnings?
Wall Street analysts project mixed earnings for Papa John's International (PZZA). The current quarter's average EPS estimate is $0.1561, with next year's estimate at $1.33. However, revenue growth is expected to remain negative in the near term, with current year revenue growth estimated at -8.00%.
What is PZZA stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price for PZZA stock in 2030 is $16.11, with a downside projection of $5.47 and an upside projection of $47.49. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Does Papa John's International (PZZA) pay a dividend?
Yes, Papa John's International (PZZA) pays a dividend with a current yield of 9.41% and a rate of $1.84 per share. However, given the company's negative revenue growth and profitability concerns, the sustainability of this dividend should be monitored.