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As of September 26, 2026, NIO Inc. (NIO) trades at $3.580. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $6.020, 68.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $6.020 across 24 analysts. RSI at 35 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $4.287.
NIO Inc. (NIO)
NIO Inc. NYSE
$3.58
-0.0500 (-1.38%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
71 / 100
NIO Inc. is currently trading at $3.58, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($4.29 and $5.09), with bearish RSI momentum. Despite current technical weakness, Wall Street maintains a 'Buy' consensus, with 24 analysts assigning a median price target of $6.02, representing a 68.2% upside from the current price. The company's forward estimates show significant revenue growth projections, with current year revenue expected to increase by 47.00% and next year by 19.00%. The next year's EPS estimate is a positive $0.85, a stark contrast to the current year's estimated EPS of $-0.24. However, the company's profitability remains a concern, with a negative net profit margin of -4.17% and a negative return on equity of -45.32%. The high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.03 also warrants attention. Insider activity is neutral, with no open-market buying or selling detected, only transactions with $0 market value, likely grants or awards. The primary risk remains the company's ability to achieve profitability and manage its debt load amidst intense competition in the EV market.
NIO Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$3.60
Day Range
$3.56 to $3.61
Prev Close
$3.63
Volume
25.38M
52-Week Range
$3.55 to $8.02
Market Cap
$8.97B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs VCR
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, NIO trades at 0.0797x, far below the sector average of 1.90x.
NIO Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Earnings data unavailable. The earnings data appears to be incomplete or contains invalid values.
NIO Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+68.16% Upside
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$6.020
AI Technical Analysis
NIO Inc. is trading below its 50-day SMA of $4.29 and its 200-day SMA of $5.09, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.72, signaling bearish momentum, and the MACD is also negative at -0.21. Volume has been below its average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from buyers at current levels. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the downward trend, while resistance will likely be encountered at the recent moving average levels.
ProTips
- NIO Inc.'s recent earnings beats, while positive, have not translated into immediate stock price gains, suggesting that investors are closely watching for a clear path to profitability and sustainable positive EPS.
- The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($4.29 and $5.09), indicating bearish short-to-medium term momentum. Investors should monitor for a decisive break above these levels to signal a potential trend reversal.
- Given the current unprofitability and high debt-to-equity ratio, investors should consider position sizing carefully and potentially utilize stop-losses to manage downside risk, especially given the stock's volatility.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast substantial revenue growth for NIO Inc., with current year revenue expected to increase by 47.00% and next year by 19.00%, indicating strong market demand for its products.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Forward EPS Estimates
Forward-looking EPS estimates for NIO Inc. turn positive next year, projecting $0.85, which could signal a turnaround in profitability and support a higher stock valuation.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Persistent Unprofitability
NIO Inc. continues to report negative net profit margins and return on equity, raising concerns about its long-term financial sustainability despite revenue growth.
Source: Company FundamentalsBearish
High Debt-to-Equity Ratio
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.03 indicates a significant reliance on debt financing, which could pose a risk in a rising interest rate environment or if cash flow generation falters.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
NIO Inc. is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with current year revenue projected to increase by 47.00% and next year by 19.00%. The company's forward EPS estimates turn positive next year, reaching $0.85, which could support a recovery in its stock price. However, achieving profitability remains a critical hurdle, and the company's ability to manage its debt and work through the competitive EV landscape will be key. A sustained improvement in profit margins and a reduction in the debt-to-equity ratio would be necessary to validate the optimistic revenue and EPS forecasts and drive the stock towards its median analyst target price of $6.02.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 8.97B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.2700 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 8.02 |
| 52 Week Low | 3.55 |
NIO Inc. exhibits a low price-to-sales ratio of 0.08, significantly below the sector median of 1.9, suggesting it may be undervalued on a sales basis. However, the company's profitability metrics are concerning, with a negative net profit margin of -4.17% and a negative return on equity of -45.32%. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 2.03, which is considerably higher than the sector median of 12.4% ROE. The company's substantial revenue growth of 69.1% is a positive sign, but it has not yet translated into profitability.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
NIO Inc. recently reported a surprise EPS beat for the quarter to September 2026, with actual EPS of $0.01 against an estimate of $-0.14, a 107.14% surprise, though the stock reacted negatively with a -4.93% price change. Prior to this, the company also posted a significant EPS beat in the quarter to March 2026. Despite these beats, the company's overall profitability remains negative, with a current year EPS estimate of $-0.24.
Key Risks
NIO Inc. faces significant risks including its current lack of profitability, evidenced by a negative net profit margin and return on equity. The company's high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.03 also presents a financial risk, particularly if market conditions tighten. Intense competition within the electric vehicle market poses a continuous threat to market share and pricing power.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 34.72 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.21 |
| SMA 50 | 4.29 |
| SMA 200 | 5.09 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $4.287, 200-day: $5.093), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with NIO? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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NIO Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$3.508
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$3.580
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$3.398
MAX LOSS
-3.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (34.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$3.684
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$3.859
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$4.035
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for NIO is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in NIO in September 2018 would be worth about $5,424 today, compared with about $26,679 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in NIO today could grow to about $8,857 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $67,192 and a bear case around $1,167. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
NIO Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $3.41 for NIO by 2030 in the base case, from $3.58 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $0.9467. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NIO's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1.86 | $3.54 | $6.71 |
| 2028 | $1.41 | $3.49 | $8.65 |
| 2029 | $1.14 | $3.45 | $10.47 |
| 2030 | $0.9467 | $3.41 | $12.29 |
| 2031 | $0.8039 | $3.37 | $14.12 |
| 2032 | $0.6927 | $3.33 | $15.99 |
| 2033 | $0.6035 | $3.29 | $17.92 |
| 2034 | $0.5303 | $3.25 | $19.90 |
| 2035 | $0.4694 | $3.21 | $21.94 |
| 2036 | $0.4179 | $3.17 | $24.05 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using NIO's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
NIO Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
None
No open-market sells
Insiders
3
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
N/A
Values not reported
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | QIN LIHONG
President
|
Grant | 300.0K | - |
| Sep 1, 2026 | QU YU
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 245.0K | - |
| Sep 1, 2026 | ZHOU XIN
Officer
|
Grant | 200.0K | - |
| Jun 1, 2026 | QIN LIHONG
President
|
Grant | 300.0K | - |
| Jun 1, 2026 | QU YU
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 200.0K | - |
| Jun 1, 2026 | ZHOU XIN
Officer
|
Grant | 200.0K | - |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is NIO Inc.'s stock price prediction for 2030?
NIO Inc.'s stock price prediction for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, shows a base case of $3.41, a downside case of $0.95, and an upside case of $12.29. These figures are statistical outcomes and not guaranteed price targets.
Is NIO Inc. stock a buy right now?
Wall Street analysts currently rate NIO Inc. as a 'Buy' with a median price target of $6.02, suggesting an upside of 68.2%. However, the stock is trading below key moving averages and shows bearish technical momentum.
What is NIO Inc.'s current financial health?
NIO Inc. exhibits a negative net profit margin of -4.17% and a negative return on equity of -45.32%. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 2.03, while the sector median ROE is 12.4%.
How has NIO Inc. performed in recent earnings reports?
NIO Inc. recently reported an EPS beat for the quarter to September 2026, exceeding estimates by 107.14%. However, the stock price declined following the announcement. The company's current year EPS estimate remains negative at $-0.24.
What are the key risks facing NIO Inc.?
Key risks for NIO Inc. include its current unprofitability, a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.03, and intense competition in the electric vehicle sector. The company must demonstrate a clear path to sustainable profitability.
What is the revenue growth outlook for NIO Inc.?
NIO Inc. is projected to experience strong revenue growth, with current year estimates at +47.00% and next year at +19.00%. Next year's EPS estimate is positive at $0.85, contrasting with the current year's estimated EPS of $-0.24.
What is the Wall Street consensus on NIO Inc. stock?
The Wall Street consensus for NIO Inc. is 'Buy', with 24 analysts covering the stock. The consensus score is 71 out of 100, with 5 Strong Buys, 12 Buys, and 6 Holds.