Stock·NYSE·Consumer Cyclical
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
- Market cap
- $35.95B
- P/E
- 26.55
- Dividend yield
- None
- Street target
- $40.00median of 35 analysts
- 52-week range
- $27.31 $41.42
CMG stock forecast today
Where CMG stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
CMG at a glance
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG): Sell, 38/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($33.42 and $34.26).
- Earnings CMG beat estimates in 4 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after 1 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $22.2M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 26.6 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a premium to peers (+28%).
Figures as of October 26, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Sell, with a model score of 38/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 23 of 35 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 40.8% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 17.07% below its 200-day average and 14.98% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 2.46% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $33.42 and the 200-day at $34.26. Over the past year the price fell 31.03%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from CMG's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
CMG stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $28.41 is 15.0% below the 50-day simple moving average of $33.42.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 17.1% below the 200-day simple moving average of $34.26.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($33.42) is 2.5% below the 200-day average ($34.26), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 8% of its 52-week range, between $27.31 and $41.42.
CMG share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far CMG has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where CMG sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
CMG fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
1/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 26.55 is 27.6% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 2.89 is 52.3% above the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $1.4B on revenue of $12.4B, a net margin of 11.4%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
CMG beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Key statistics
The headline figures for CMG.
As of October 26, 2026, CMG trades at $28.41, with a market value of $35.95B and a P/E ratio of 26.55.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of CMG's valuation, growth and risks.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) carries a P/E of 26.55, which is 23.7% above the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 20.8, so the P/E is a premium to peers. On sales, the P/S of 2.89 sits 52.3% above the sector median of 1.9. The company has a market capitalisation of $36.0B and trailing earnings of $1.07 per share.
Revenue grew 9.30% in the latest quarter year on year, which is 2.1 percentage points ahead of the 7.2% median for Consumer Cyclical. Profitability shows a net margin of 11.43% and an operating margin of 16.11%. Shareholders' capital earns 49.56%, above the sector median of 12.4%, measured as return on equity. It also reports debt-to-equity of 2.46.
CMG reported $0.33 per share in its latest quarterly report, released on July 29, 2026, against an analyst estimate of $0.32. That is a beat of 3.13% over the estimate. In the first session after the report, the share price climbed 12.50%.
The earnings record shows 4 beats in 8 reports, though the stock still fell in the first session after 1 of those 4 beats. Analysts' average EPS estimate for this fiscal year is $1.15, which would be a decline of 2.0%, and $1.37 for next year (growth of 19.0%).
Valuation leaves less margin for error: the P/E of 26.55 is 27.6% above the sector median, a premium to peers. CMG's average daily move is 2.26%, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 0.96. The downtrend is itself a risk for as long as the price stays under both moving averages. The price is 31.41% below its 52-week high of $41.42.
CMG against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How CMG compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: CMG trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+28%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
Return vs SPY: Since May 14, 2025, CMG has lost 45.6% against a gain of 30.3% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
CMG and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much CMG sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 5.4% in FY2025 to $11.9B, from $11.3B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 12.9% in FY2025, down from 13.6% the year before.
Profitable: CMG earned $1.5B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did CMG beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: CMG beat the analyst estimate in 4 of the last 8 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 1 of those 4 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026after close | $0.32 | $0.33 | +3.13% | +12.50% | +0.76% |
| Apr 29, 2026after close | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.00% | +3.03% | -0.76% |
| Feb 3, 2026after close | $0.24 | $0.25 | +4.17% | +1.94% | -1.86% |
| Oct 29, 2025after close | $0.29 | $0.29 | +0.00% | -18.18% | -19.59% |
| Jul 23, 2025after close | $0.33 | $0.33 | +0.00% | -13.34% | -17.09% |
| Apr 23, 2025after close | $0.28 | $0.29 | +3.57% | +1.60% | +3.61% |
| Feb 4, 2025after close | $0.25 | $0.25 | +0.00% | -2.56% | -4.81% |
| Oct 29, 2024after close | $0.25 | $0.27 | +8.00% | -7.87% | -7.13% |
As of October 26, 2026, CMG has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 1 of those beats; its latest report, on July 29, 2026, came in 3.13% above the estimate and the stock moved +12.50% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
CMG AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 33.3, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 33.3 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of CMG
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) trades at $28.41, below both of its main moving averages. The stock sits 14.98% under its 50-day average of $33.42 and 17.07% under the 200-day average of $34.26. Within its 52-week range it stands at 8%, 4.03% above the 52-week low of $27.31. The two averages point the same way, with the 50-day 2.46% below the 200-day.
On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 33.3, in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, with the MACD line negative. The recent returns all show a loss, with the price down 14.43% over the past three months, 15.55% over the past six months and 31.03% over the past year.
Earnings beat ›
The July 29, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 3.13%, and the share price rose 12.50% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, July 29, 2026Rating reaffirmed ›
Evercore ISI Group kept its Outperform rating on October 23, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Evercore ISI Group, October 23, 2026
Analyst downgrade ›
TD Cowen downgraded it to Hold from Buy on October 21, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, TD Cowen, October 21, 2026
- The two levels nearest the price are the 20-day EMA at $30.27, which sits above it, and the 52-week low at $27.31, which sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 33.3, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- CMG beat estimates in 4 of the last 8 reports. After the July 29, 2026 report, the share price gained 12.50% in the first session.
The downtrend stays in place while CMG is below both its 50-day average at $33.42 and its 200-day average at $34.26; a close back above the 50-day would be the first step of a repair. The 20-day EMA at $30.27 is the first hurdle overhead.
The next level below the price is the 52-week low at $27.31. With the RSI in the bearish zone, momentum does not favour a fast rebound.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for CMG, from its daily closes.
As of October 26, 2026, with CMG at $28.41, its 14-day RSI is 33.3 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $33.42 and its 200-day is $34.26.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 26, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What CMG moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 26, 2026, CMG's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.33 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.26 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.14 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.01 with gold (XAU).
CMG price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
23 of 35 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 12 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $40.00 is 40.8% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
23 of 35 rate it a buy now, against 25 of 35 three months ago.
CMG Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $28.41, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 21, 2026 | TD Cowen | Downgrade | Hold |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform |
As of October 26, 2026, 35 Wall Street analysts cover CMG: 23 rate it a buy or strong buy, 12 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $32.00 to $53.00. The median CMG price target is $40.00, 40.8% above the price of $28.41.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
CMG trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
CMG trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from CMG's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much CMG tends to move, against the market and on its own.
CMG price history and drawdowns
CMG's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
1/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.26% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 59.1%, from June 2024 to October 2026; the price is still 57.8% below that peak.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
65% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $38,539, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
CMG Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 26, 2026, CMG's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -59.1% (June 2024 to October 2026); it is still 57.8% below that peak, and 65% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into CMG in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: CMG trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $38,539 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in CMG in October 2016 would be worth about $38,539 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to CMG, and which have not.
Strongest month, April: an average of +11.05%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, October: an average of -6.20%, up in 1 of 9 years.
This month, October: has averaged -6.20%, up in 1 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, CMG's strongest calendar month has been April (average +11.05%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest October (average -6.20%, up in 1 of 9 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
CMG stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in CMG, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in CMG today could grow to about $14,165 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $35,732 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,615. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CMG Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $40.24 for CMG by 2030 in the base case, from $28.41 today (1.4x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $15.95. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CMG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $19.51 | $30.99 | $49.23 | |
| 2028 | $17.58 | $33.81 | $65.05 | |
| 2029 | $16.55 | $36.89 | $82.20 | |
| 2030 | $15.95 | $40.24 | $102 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of CMG's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
CMG insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
CMG insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: No insider bought CMG shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 26, 2026, CMG insiders reported 15 open-market sales worth $22.2M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sabir Sami
Director
|
Grant | 4.7K | $159.1K |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Sell | 2.7K | $95.6K |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Fernando De Araujo Machado
Officer
|
Grant | 76.2K | - |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Matthew A Carey
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Laura Fuentes
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mauricio Gutierrez
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Robin S. Hickenlooper
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Scott Harlan Maw
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Joshua Ian Weinstein
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mary Ann Winston
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| May 20, 2026 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 6.7K | - |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Sell | 3.4K | $122.5K |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Henry Scott Boatwright
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 229.5K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Grant | 6.4K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Grant | 254.8K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Adam T Rymer
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 25.5K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Laurie Schalow
Officer
|
Grant | 76.6K | - |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 61.1K | $2.4M |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Grant | 3.2K | $125.0K |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Ilene Eskenazi
Officer
|
Grant | 20.3K | $800.0K |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Option | 86.1K | $1.0M |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Jason Allan Kidd
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 16.5K | $650.0K |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Laurie Schalow
Officer
|
Grant | 8.9K | $350.0K |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 67.6K | $2.4M |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Option | 100.0K | $1.2M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 61.9K | $2.1M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Option | 93.0K | $1.1M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Joshua Ian Weinstein
Director
|
Grant | 3.4K | - |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Grant | 12.6K | $400.0K |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Ilene Eskenazi
Officer
|
Sell | 26.6K | $1.1M |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 5.3K | - |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Jason Allan Kidd
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 16.0K | $750.0K |
| Jul 24, 2025 | Christopher W Brandt
President
|
Grant | 28.5K | - |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Officer
|
Sell | 15.8K | $887.1K |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 63.0K | $3.5M |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Robin S. Hickenlooper
Director
|
Sell | 2.3K | $115.2K |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Sell | 2.1K | $106.1K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Matthew A Carey
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Laura Fuentes
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Mauricio Gutierrez
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Robin S. Hickenlooper
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Scott Harlan Maw
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Mary Ann Winston
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Henry Scott Boatwright
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 19.0K | $997.1K |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Officer
|
Sell | 23.3K | $1.2M |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Officer
|
Option | 30.0K | $349.7K |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Roger E. Theodoredis
General Counsel
|
Sell | 113.9K | $5.7M |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Roger E. Theodoredis
General Counsel
|
Option | 128.5K | $4.1M |
| May 21, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 23.1K | $1.2M |
| May 14, 2025 | Jamie Mcconnell
Officer
|
Sell | 3.1K | $161.8K |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
CMG stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 26, 2026.