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As of September 10, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) trades at $36.08. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $36.03, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $43.50 across 34 analysts. RSI at 58 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $35.00.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. NYSE
$36.08
0.0500 (0.14%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is currently trading at $36.03, aligning with its fair value. The stock is positioned above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($35.00 and $34.91), indicating a generally positive technical trend. Analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $43.50, suggesting an upside potential of 20.7%. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with current quarter estimates showing a 9.00% year-over-year increase. However, recent insider activity shows moderate selling pressure, with $23.2 million in sales versus no reported purchases, which warrants careful consideration. Despite the insider selling, Chipotle's fundamental outlook remains solid, supported by strong revenue growth estimates and a neutral RSI indicating balanced momentum. The company's ability to consistently meet or slightly exceed earnings expectations, as seen in recent quarters, provides a degree of confidence. The key risk remains the valuation, which, while supported by growth, is also influenced by insider sentiment. Investors should monitor future earnings reports and insider transaction trends closely.
CMG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$36.16
Day Range
$35.69 to $36.20
Prev Close
$36.03
Volume
68.4K
52-Week Range
$28.04 to $42.94
Market Cap
$45.59B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+32%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
CMG Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, CMG beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
CMG Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+20.57% Upside
Median of 34 analysts (12-month)
$43.50
AI Technical Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill's trading volume has decreased by 19.8% compared to its average, suggesting a potential cooling of recent momentum. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $35.00 and its 200-day SMA of $34.91, indicating a bullish trend in the medium to long term. However, it is currently trading below its 20-day EMA of $36.38, which could signal short-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.62, which is in the neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD is positive at 0.80, indicating bullish momentum, though its magnitude should be monitored. Key support levels are around the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, while resistance may be found near recent highs. The current price action suggests a consolidation phase after a recent upward move.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely, as recent moderate selling pressure could indicate caution among management.
- Given the stock is trading above key moving averages but below its 20-day EMA, consider waiting for clearer short-term directional signals before initiating new positions.
- With a P/E ratio above the sector average, ensure that Chipotle's future growth adequately justifies its premium valuation to mitigate downside risk.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Q3 Earnings Beat
Chipotle's recent Q3 earnings report showed an EPS beat of 3.13%, leading to a significant 12.5% stock price increase, reinforcing positive investor sentiment.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Positive Analyst Ratings
A significant number of Wall Street analysts maintain 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings, with a median price target of $43.50, indicating confidence in future stock performance.
Source: Analyst ReportsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Recent insider transactions show $23.2 million in sales with no reported purchases, signaling a degree of caution from management regarding the stock's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Revenue Growth Alignment
Projected revenue growth of 9.00% for the current quarter and 11.00% for the next quarter aligns with sector averages, suggesting stable business operations.
Source: Revenue EstimatesMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) over the next 6-12 months suggests a potential move towards its analyst median target price of $43.50, representing a 20.7% upside from the current price. This outlook is supported by consistent revenue growth and positive analyst sentiment. The company's ability to continue meeting or exceeding earnings expectations will be critical in driving this appreciation. Factors that could alter this trajectory include stronger-than-anticipated earnings beats or new strategic initiatives that could push the stock towards the higher end of analyst targets. Conversely, a failure to meet growth expectations, increased competitive pressures, or a continuation of insider selling could pressure the stock downwards, potentially testing support levels around its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 45.59B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.67 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.08 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 42.94 |
| 52 Week Low | 28.04 |
Chipotle Mexican Grill's current P/E ratio of 33.67 is above the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation relative to its peers. The company's revenue growth of 9.3% is in line with the sector average of 10.0%, suggesting steady expansion. While the stock trades at a premium, its consistent earnings performance and strong revenue estimates provide some justification for this valuation. The balance sheet strength and profitability metrics are not detailed, but the consistent revenue growth and analyst revenue estimates for upcoming quarters suggest operational efficiency. Investors should consider the premium valuation in light of the moderate insider selling and ensure that future growth adequately supports the current stock price.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill recently reported an EPS of $0.33 for the quarter ending July 29, 2026, beating the estimate of $0.32 by 3.13%, which coincided with a 12.5% price increase. Prior to this, the company had a mixed earnings performance, with a 0% surprise in April 2026 and a 4.17% beat in February 2026, followed by a 0% surprise in October 2025. This pattern indicates a tendency to meet or slightly exceed analyst expectations.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Chipotle Mexican Grill is its premium valuation, with a P/E ratio higher than the sector average, which could lead to increased volatility if growth expectations are not met. Moderate insider selling, totaling $23.2 million in recent transactions, also presents a cautionary signal regarding management's short-term outlook. Also, the stock's current trading below its 20-day EMA suggests potential short-term headwinds that warrant monitoring.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 57.62 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.80 |
| SMA 50 | 35.00 |
| SMA 200 | 34.91 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.28
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.01
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
CMG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$35.72
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$36.08
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$33.79
MAX LOSS
-5.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (57.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$36.79
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$37.51
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$38.58
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
CMG is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.60%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CMG in September 2016 would be worth about $42,003 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CMG today could grow to about $28,615 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $123,284 and a bear case around $6,642. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CMG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $54.94 for CMG by 2030 in the base case, from $36.08 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $21.81. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CMG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $25.25 | $40.08 | $63.61 |
| 2028 | $23.17 | $44.52 | $85.56 |
| 2029 | $22.22 | $49.46 | $110 |
| 2030 | $21.81 | $54.94 | $138 |
| 2031 | $21.73 | $61.03 | $171 |
| 2032 | $21.87 | $67.80 | $210 |
| 2033 | $22.19 | $75.31 | $256 |
| 2034 | $22.66 | $83.66 | $309 |
| 2035 | $23.25 | $92.94 | $372 |
| 2036 | $23.96 | $103 | $445 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CMG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
CMG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$23.2M
16 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2020 | PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.
Director
|
Sell | 347.7K | $306.4M |
| Feb 7, 2020 | PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.
Director
|
Sell | 215.4K | $185.3M |
| Jan 5, 2021 | PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.
Unknown
|
Sell | 75.1K | $100.6M |
| Sep 27, 2019 | PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.
Unknown
|
Sell | 58.4K | $47.6M |
| Jul 23, 2021 | NICCOL BRIAN R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 20.8K | $36.5M |
| Feb 5, 2021 | GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 19.6K | $29.1M |
| Apr 23, 2020 | NICCOL BRIAN R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 32.4K | $28.1M |
| Aug 27, 2021 | HARTUNG JOHN R
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 12.0K | $23.1M |
| Aug 1, 2019 | ELLS MATTHEW STEVEN
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 28.2K | $22.4M |
| Aug 5, 2021 | NICCOL BRIAN R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 11.5K | $21.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock a buy right now?
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is currently trading at $36.03, which aligns with its fair value. Analysts have a median price target of $43.50, suggesting a 20.7% upside. However, moderate insider selling and a P/E ratio above the sector average warrant a cautious approach, leading to a 'Hold' consensus rating.
What is CMG's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) stock price is projected to be $54.87 by 2030 under base case assumptions, with a downside projection of $21.78 and an upside projection of $138.19. These are statistical outcomes, not definitive price targets.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)?
Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), with 4 Strong Buys, 20 Buys, and 10 Holds among 34 analysts. The consensus score is 71 out of 100, and the median price target is $43.50.
How has Chipotle Mexican Grill performed in recent earnings reports?
Chipotle Mexican Grill recently reported an EPS of $0.33, beating estimates by 3.13% and leading to a 12.5% stock price increase. The company has generally met or slightly exceeded earnings expectations in recent quarters.
What are the key risks facing Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)?
Key risks for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) include its premium valuation relative to the sector average, moderate insider selling totaling $23.2 million, and potential short-term weakness indicated by trading below its 20-day EMA.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth outlook?
Chipotle Mexican Grill is expected to achieve approximately 9.00% revenue growth for the current quarter and 11.00% for the next quarter, with full-year 2026 revenue growth projected at 9.00%.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) pay a dividend?
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) does not currently pay a dividend, with a reported dividend yield and rate of 0%.