Stock·NYSE·Consumer Cyclical
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
- Market cap
- $37.82B
- P/E
- 27.42
- Dividend yield
- 0.00%
- Street target
- $44.00median of 35 analysts
- 52-week range
- $28.04 $42.74
The short version
Where CMG stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
CMG at a glance
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG): Sell, 36/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($33.90 and $34.55).
- Earnings CMG beat estimates in 4 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after 1 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $22.2M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 27.4 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a premium to peers (+32%).
Figures as of October 17, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Sell, with a model score of 36/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 24 of 35 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 47.2% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 13.48% below its 200-day average and 11.82% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 1.89% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $33.90 and the 200-day at $34.55. Over the past year the price fell 28.42%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from CMG's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $29.89 is 11.8% below the 50-day simple moving average of $33.90.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 13.5% below the 200-day simple moving average of $34.55.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($33.90) is 1.9% below the 200-day average ($34.55), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 13% of its 52-week range, between $28.04 and $42.74.
CMG share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far CMG has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where CMG sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
1/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 27.42 is 31.8% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 3.04 is 60.2% above the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $1.4B on revenue of $12.4B, a net margin of 11.4%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
CMG beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Key statistics
The headline figures for CMG.
As of October 17, 2026, CMG trades at $29.89, with a market value of $37.82B and a P/E ratio of 27.42.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of CMG's valuation, growth and risks.
CMG's P/E of 27.42 sits 31.8% above the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 20.8, so the P/E is a premium to peers. On sales, the P/S of 3.04 is 60.0% above the sector median of 1.9. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) carries a market value of $37.8B and trailing earnings of $1.09 per share.
Revenue grew 9.30% over the latest year, which is 2.1 percentage points ahead of the 7.2% median for Consumer Cyclical. Profitability shows a net margin of 11.43% and an operating margin of 16.11%. Shareholders' capital earns 49.56%, above the sector median of 12.4%, measured as return on equity. It also reports debt-to-equity of 2.46.
CMG reported $0.33 a share in its most recent quarterly report, dated July 29, 2026, against an estimate of $0.32. That beat the estimate by 3.13%. In the first session after the report, the share price went up 12.50%.
The earnings record shows 4 beats in 8 reports, though the stock still fell in the first session after 1 of those 4 beats. Analysts' average EPS estimate for this fiscal year is $1.15, which would be a decline of 1.7%, and $1.37 for next year (growth of 19.1%).
Valuation leaves less room for error. The P/E of 27.42 is 31.8% above the sector median, which is a premium to peers. CMG's average daily move is 2.29%. For as long as the price stays under both moving averages, the downtrend remains a risk in itself. The price is 30.07% below the 52-week high of $42.74.
CMG against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How CMG compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: CMG trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+32%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
Return vs SPY: Since May 6, 2025, CMG has lost 40.7% against a gain of 36.6% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
CMG and the Consumer Cyclical sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much CMG sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 5.4% in FY2025 to $11.9B, from $11.3B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 12.9% in FY2025, down from 13.6% the year before.
Profitable: CMG earned $1.5B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did CMG beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: CMG beat the analyst estimate in 4 of the last 8 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 1 of those 4 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026after close | $0.32 | $0.33 | +3.13% | +12.50% | +0.76% |
| Apr 29, 2026after close | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.00% | +3.03% | -0.76% |
| Feb 3, 2026after close | $0.24 | $0.25 | +4.17% | +1.94% | -1.86% |
| Oct 29, 2025after close | $0.29 | $0.29 | +0.00% | -18.18% | -19.59% |
| Jul 23, 2025after close | $0.33 | $0.33 | +0.00% | -13.34% | -17.09% |
| Apr 23, 2025after close | $0.28 | $0.29 | +3.57% | +1.60% | +3.61% |
| Feb 4, 2025after close | $0.25 | $0.25 | +0.00% | -2.56% | -4.81% |
| Oct 29, 2024after close | $0.25 | $0.27 | +8.00% | -7.87% | -7.13% |
As of October 17, 2026, CMG has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 1 of those beats; its latest report, on July 29, 2026, came in 3.13% above the estimate and the stock moved +12.50% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 34.3, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 34.3 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of CMG
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
CMG, also known as Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc, trades at $29.89 and sits below both of its main moving averages. The price is 11.82% below the 50-day average of $33.90 and 13.48% below the 200-day average of $34.55. Sitting at 13% of its 52-week range, the price is 6.60% above the 52-week low of $28.04. The two averages point the same way, since the 50-day is 1.89% below the 200-day.
On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 34.3, in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, with the MACD line negative. Every period on the chart shows a loss, with the price down 13.21% over the past three months, 16.58% over the past six months and 28.42% over the past year. The price fell 2.26% in the last session on volume 29.4% below its average.
Earnings beat ›
The July 29, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 3.13%, and the share price rose 12.50% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, July 29, 2026New analyst coverage ›
Seaport Global started coverage at Neutral on September 16, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Seaport Global, September 16, 2026
Analyst downgrade ›
Baird downgraded it to Neutral from Outperform on August 24, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Baird, August 24, 2026
- The two nearest levels matter most: the 20-day EMA at $31.72 sits above the price, and the 52-week low at $28.04 sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 34.3, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- The share price went up 12.50% in the first session after the July 29, 2026 report. Over the last 8 reports, CMG beat estimates in 4 of them.
The downtrend stays in place while CMG is below both its 50-day average at $33.90 and its 200-day average at $34.55; a close back above the 50-day would be the first step of a repair. The 20-day EMA at $31.72 is the first hurdle overhead.
The next level below the price is the 52-week low at $28.04. The RSI is in the bearish zone, which argues against a quick recovery.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for CMG, from its daily closes.
As of October 17, 2026, with CMG at $29.89, its 14-day RSI is 34.3 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $33.90 and its 200-day is $34.55.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 17, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What CMG moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 17, 2026, CMG's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.32 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.25 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.15 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.02 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
24 of 35 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 11 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $44.00 is 47.2% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
24 of 35 rate it a buy now, against 25 of 35 three months ago.
CMG Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $29.89, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Seaport Global | Initiates | Neutral |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Mizuho | Reiterates | Outperform |
| Sep 1, 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Baird | Downgrade | Neutral |
| Aug 5, 2026 | BTIG | Reiterates | Buy |
As of October 17, 2026, 35 Wall Street analysts cover CMG: 24 rate it a buy or strong buy, 11 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $35.00 to $53.00, with a median of $44.00, 47.2% above the price of $29.89.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
CMG trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from CMG's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much CMG tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
CMG's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
1/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.29% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 57.4%, from December 2024 to June 2026; the price is still 54.8% below that peak.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
65% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $37,898, against $42,055 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
CMG Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 17, 2026, CMG's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -57.4% (December 2024 to June 2026); it is still 54.8% below that peak, and 65% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into CMG in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: CMG trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $37,898 against $42,055.
A $10,000 investment in CMG in October 2016 would be worth about $37,898 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,055 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to CMG, and which have not.
Strongest month, April: an average of +9.17%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, September: an average of -4.46%, up in 1 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -2.20%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, CMG's strongest calendar month has been April (average +9.17%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest September (average -4.46%, up in 1 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in CMG, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CMG today could grow to about $23,766 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $102,959 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,486. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CMG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $42.26 for CMG by 2030 in the base case, from $29.89 today (1.4x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $16.72. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CMG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $20.50 | $32.59 | $51.82 | |
| 2028 | $18.45 | $35.54 | $68.46 | |
| 2029 | $17.36 | $38.75 | $86.51 | |
| 2030 | $16.72 | $42.26 | $107 | |
| 2031 | $16.34 | $46.08 | $130 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of CMG's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
CMG insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Insider buying: No insider bought CMG shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 17, 2026, CMG insiders reported 15 open-market sales worth $22.2M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sabir Sami
Director
|
Grant | 4.7K | $159.1K |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Sell | 2.7K | $95.6K |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Fernando De Araujo Machado
Officer
|
Grant | 76.2K | - |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Matthew A Carey
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Laura Fuentes
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mauricio Gutierrez
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Robin S. Hickenlooper
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Scott Harlan Maw
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Joshua Ian Weinstein
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mary Ann Winston
Director
|
Grant | 6.9K | $215.0K |
| May 20, 2026 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 6.7K | - |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Sell | 3.4K | $122.5K |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Henry Scott Boatwright
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 229.5K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Grant | 6.4K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Grant | 254.8K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Adam T Rymer
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 25.5K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Laurie Schalow
Officer
|
Grant | 76.6K | - |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 61.1K | $2.4M |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Grant | 3.2K | $125.0K |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Ilene Eskenazi
Officer
|
Grant | 20.3K | $800.0K |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Option | 86.1K | $1.0M |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Jason Allan Kidd
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 16.5K | $650.0K |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Laurie Schalow
Officer
|
Grant | 8.9K | $350.0K |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 67.6K | $2.4M |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Option | 100.0K | $1.2M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 61.9K | $2.1M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Option | 93.0K | $1.1M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Joshua Ian Weinstein
Director
|
Grant | 3.4K | - |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Matthew R Bush
Officer
|
Grant | 12.6K | $400.0K |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Ilene Eskenazi
Officer
|
Sell | 26.6K | $1.1M |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 5.3K | - |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Jason Allan Kidd
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 16.0K | $750.0K |
| Jul 24, 2025 | Christopher W Brandt
President
|
Grant | 28.5K | - |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Officer
|
Sell | 15.8K | $887.1K |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
President
|
Sell | 63.0K | $3.5M |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Robin S. Hickenlooper
Director
|
Sell | 2.3K | $115.2K |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Sell | 2.1K | $106.1K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Albert Steven Baldocchi
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Matthew A Carey
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Patricia D Fili-Krushel
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Laura Fuentes
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Mauricio Gutierrez
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Robin S. Hickenlooper
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Scott Harlan Maw
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Mary Ann Winston
Director
|
Grant | 4.2K | $215.0K |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Henry Scott Boatwright
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 19.0K | $997.1K |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Officer
|
Sell | 23.3K | $1.2M |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Officer
|
Option | 30.0K | $349.7K |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Roger E. Theodoredis
General Counsel
|
Sell | 113.9K | $5.7M |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Roger E. Theodoredis
General Counsel
|
Option | 128.5K | $4.1M |
| May 21, 2025 | Curtis Evander Garner III
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 23.1K | $1.2M |
| May 14, 2025 | Jamie Mcconnell
Officer
|
Sell | 3.1K | $161.8K |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 17, 2026.