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As of September 27, 2026, AXT Inc. (AXTI) trades at $78.94. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $45.00, 43.0% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $93.00 across 5 analysts. RSI at 65 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $65.44.
AXT Inc. (AXTI)
AXT Inc. NASDAQ
$78.94
3.040 (4.01%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
AXT Inc. is trading at $78.94, showing strong upward momentum with its RSI at 65.35 and trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($65.44 and $58.73). The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates at +147.00% year-over-year, reaching $218 million. This growth is supported by positive earnings surprises in recent quarters, with the latest quarter to June 2026 showing a 171.43% EPS beat. However, the company's valuation is exceptionally high, with a P/E ratio of 2530 and a price-to-sales ratio of 39.65, significantly above sector medians. Also, insider activity reveals heavy net selling, with over $78.7 million in sales and no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management. This combination of extreme valuation and insider selling presents a substantial risk to the current stock price.
AXTI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$77.50
Day Range
$75.00 to $80.44
Prev Close
$75.90
Volume
7.41M
52-Week Range
$3.70 to $143.16
Market Cap
$5.18B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+7,341%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
AXTI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, AXTI beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
AXTI Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Volume has decreased 19.7% below its average, suggesting a potential cooling of recent trading interest despite the bullish momentum. AXT Inc. is trading above its 50-day SMA of $65.44 and its 200-day SMA of $58.73, indicating a positive short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is at 65.35, signaling bullish momentum without being overbought. Key resistance levels are not clearly defined due to the limited trading history and rapid price appreciation. Support can be found at the 50-day SMA ($65.44) and the 200-day SMA ($58.73). The current price action suggests continued strength, but the lack of volume confirmation and the high valuation could limit further upside potential.
ProTips
- Given the heavy insider selling and stretched valuation, consider waiting for a significant pullback or a clearer signal of sustained insider buying before initiating a position in AXT Inc.
- The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($65.44 and $58.73), indicating bullish short-to-medium term momentum, but this is occurring on lower than average volume, suggesting caution.
- With a P/E ratio of 2530, AXT Inc. is trading at a substantial premium. Investors should closely monitor future earnings reports and management commentary for any signs of slowing growth, which could lead to a significant valuation reset.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $78.7 Million
Insiders have sold over $78.7 million worth of AXT Inc. stock with no reported purchases, signaling a lack of confidence and potentially indicating that management believes the stock is overvalued.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Exceeding 147% Year-over-Year
AXT Inc. is experiencing exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates at +147.00% year-over-year. This rapid expansion is a key driver of the current stock price.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Earnings Surprises
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a significant 171.43% surprise in the quarter to June 2026, demonstrating operational execution.
Source: Earnings ReportsBearish
Extremely Stretched Valuation
AXT Inc.'s P/E ratio of 2530 and P/S ratio of 39.65 are significantly higher than sector averages, creating substantial risk for a valuation correction.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for AXT Inc. anticipates continued strong revenue growth, but the current valuation presents a significant risk of a sharp correction. While analysts have a median price target of $93, implying an 17.8% upside, the extreme P/E and P/S ratios suggest this target may be overly optimistic given the insider selling. Upside catalysts would need to involve sustained hyper-growth exceeding current aggressive estimates and a significant shift in insider sentiment. Conversely, any failure to meet growth expectations, or continued insider divestitures, could trigger a rapid decline towards its fair value of $45.00, representing a potential downside of nearly 43% from current levels.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 5.18B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2,530.00 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.0300 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 143.16 |
| 52 Week Low | 3.70 |
AXT Inc.'s valuation metrics are extremely stretched, with a P/E ratio of 2530 and a price-to-sales ratio of 39.65, far exceeding the sector median P/E of 34 and P/S of 7.5. While the company boasts impressive revenue growth of 164.8% and forward estimates of +147.00% for the current year, its net profit margin of 3.23% and return on equity of 1.01% do not justify such a premium valuation. The company's balance sheet appears healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, and its operating margin of 21.90% is strong. However, the current market capitalization of $5.18 billion for a company with current year revenue estimates of $218 million suggests significant future growth is already priced in, leaving little room for error.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
AXT Inc. has shown strong performance in recent earnings reports, with the quarter to June 2026 exceeding analyst expectations by 171.43% with an EPS of $0.19 against an estimate of $0.07, leading to a significant 28.74% price increase. Prior quarters also showed positive surprises, indicating a trend of beating analyst estimates. Forward-looking estimates are strong, with current year EPS projected at $0.868 and next year at $2.25, alongside substantial revenue growth forecasts. This positive earnings trajectory supports the bullish sentiment, but the extreme valuation remains a significant concern.
Key Risks
The primary risk for AXT Inc. is its exceptionally high valuation, with P/E and P/S ratios significantly above sector averages, suggesting the stock is overvalued. Heavy insider selling, with over $78.7 million in sales and no reported purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management and poses a significant downside risk. Additionally, while revenue growth is strong, the company's profitability metrics do not fully support the current market capitalization. Any slowdown in the projected hyper-growth could lead to a sharp correction.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 65.35 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 2.62 |
| SMA 50 | 65.44 |
| SMA 200 | 58.73 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($65.44) above the 200-day SMA ($58.73), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.33
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.39
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with AXTI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
AXTI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$80.52
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$78.94
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$90.12
MAX LOSS
-11.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (65.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$76.49
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$72.47
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$68.44
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AXTI is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 7.95%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AXTI in September 2016 would be worth about $162,094 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AXTI today could grow to about $44,874 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $340,439 and a bear case around $5,915. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AXTI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $144 for AXTI by 2030 in the base case, from $78.94 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $39.95. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AXTI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $48.33 | $91.73 | $174 |
| 2028 | $43.07 | $107 | $264 |
| 2029 | $40.82 | $124 | $376 |
| 2030 | $39.95 | $144 | $518 |
| 2031 | $39.90 | $167 | $701 |
| 2032 | $40.44 | $194 | $934 |
| 2033 | $41.44 | $226 | $1,230 |
| 2034 | $42.83 | $262 | $1,607 |
| 2035 | $44.59 | $305 | $2,084 |
| 2036 | $46.69 | $354 | $2,687 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AXTI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. AXTI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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AXTI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$78.7M
33 Transactions
Insiders
6
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.4M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | YOUNG MORRIS S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 197.5K | $22.3M |
| Mar 2, 2026 | FISCHER GARY L
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 405.2K | $16.8M |
| Mar 2, 2026 | YOUNG MORRIS S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 159.5K | $6.9M |
| Mar 9, 2026 | YOUNG MORRIS S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 134.2K | $4.9M |
| Mar 13, 2026 | FISCHER GARY L
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 89.0K | $4.5M |
| Jun 12, 2026 | CHEN JESSE
Director
|
Sell | 22.0K | $2.0M |
| Mar 13, 2026 | YOUNG MORRIS S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 37.9K | $1.9M |
| Mar 5, 2026 | CHANG DAVID C
Director
|
Sell | 40.0K | $1.5M |
| Jun 10, 2026 | CHEN JESSE
Director
|
Sell | 16.5K | $1.5M |
| Mar 10, 2026 | YOUNG MORRIS S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.8K | $1.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXT Inc. stock a buy right now?
AXT Inc. is currently trading at $78.94 with a consensus rating of Sell. While technicals are bullish and revenue growth is strong, the extremely high valuation and heavy insider selling present significant risks, making it a less attractive buy at current levels.
What is AXT Inc.'s price target for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, AXT Inc.'s base case price projection for 2030 is $143.91, with a downside projection of $39.95. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees, and reflect potential future scenarios.
What are the biggest risks facing AXT Inc.?
The most significant risks for AXT Inc. include its extremely stretched valuation, characterized by a P/E ratio of 2530, and substantial insider selling totaling over $78.7 million. Any deceleration in its projected hyper-growth could trigger a sharp price correction.
How does AXT Inc. compare to its sector averages?
AXT Inc. significantly outperforms its sector peers in revenue growth (+164.8% vs. sector median +24.1%) and operating margin (+21.90% vs. sector median N/A). However, its valuation metrics, such as P/E (2530 vs. sector median 34) and P/S (39.65 vs. sector median 7.5), are astronomically higher than the sector averages.
What is the Wall Street consensus on AXT Inc. stock?
Wall Street analysts currently rate AXT Inc. as a Buy, with a median price target of $93.00, suggesting an upside of 17.8% from the current price of $78.94. The consensus includes 1 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 1 Hold rating.
What is the recent insider activity for AXT Inc.?
Insider activity for AXT Inc. shows a heavy insider selling with $41K in total purchases versus $78.7M in total sales in recent filings. This indicates significant selling pressure from insiders.
What is AXT Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next year?
AXT Inc. is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimates for the next year (ending December 2027) showing an average of $460.7 million, representing a +111.00% year-over-year increase. The current year's revenue is estimated at $218 million, a +147.00% increase.