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As of September 27, 2026, The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) trades at $293.20. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $379.00, 29.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $379.00 across 36 analysts. RSI at 25 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $327.22.
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
The Home Depot, Inc. NYSE
$293.20
1.020 (0.35%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is currently trading at $293.20, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($327.22 and $340.77), signaling a bearish technical trend. The company's recent earnings have shown mixed results, with a notable beat in the quarter to March 2026 but a more modest performance in subsequent quarters. Despite this, the overall consensus from 36 analysts is 'Hold', with a median price target of $379.00, implying a 29.3% upside potential. Fundamental analysis reveals a P/E ratio of 20.5, which is in line with the sector average of 20.8, suggesting fair valuation. However, insider activity shows net selling, with $33.2 million in sales in recent filings, indicating a lack of immediate conviction from management. The company's profit margin stands at 8.41%, and its debt-to-equity ratio is 3.80, which is higher than the sector average of 3.8, but its return on equity is exceptionally strong at 104.30%.
HD Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$292.69
Day Range
$291.40 to $297.14
Prev Close
$292.18
Volume
5.97M
52-Week Range
$289.10 to $426.75
Market Cap
$292.52B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-1% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
HD Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, HD beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
HD Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+29.26% Upside
Median of 36 analysts (12-month)
$379.00
AI Technical Analysis
The Home Depot (HD) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($327.22 and $340.77), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 25.41, signaling oversold conditions and a potential for a short-term bounce. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative at -9.87, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. The current price of $293.20 is below the 50-day SMA of $327.22 and the 200-day SMA of $340.77. Volume has been slightly above average, with 5.97 million shares traded recently compared to an average of 5.33 million. The oversold RSI suggests that the stock may be due for a reversal, but the sustained downward trend indicated by moving averages warrants caution.
ProTips
- Consider the moderate insider selling trend as a signal of caution, despite the oversold technical conditions.
- Monitor the stock's ability to reclaim its 50-day and 200-day moving averages as a key indicator of a potential trend reversal.
- Given the current 'Hold' consensus and fair valuation, position sizing should reflect a balanced risk-reward profile.
Key Catalysts
Neutral
Insider Selling Continues
Insiders have sold $33.2 million in stock across 58 transactions, indicating a moderate sell signal and potentially signaling a lack of immediate conviction from management.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 25.41, indicating oversold conditions that could precede a short-term price bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Analyst Consensus Remains 'Hold'
The majority of analysts maintain a 'Hold' rating, reflecting a balanced view on the stock's near-term prospects.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusBullish
Strong Return on Equity
The Home Depot's return on equity stands at an exceptional 104.30%, significantly outperforming the sector average and highlighting operational efficiency.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
The Home Depot (HD) is projected to reach a base case price of $398.74 by 2030, with a downside scenario of $208.04, based on Monte Carlo simulations. The current 'Hold' consensus from analysts and a median price target of $379.00 suggest a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of $293.20. Key factors that could influence this outlook include continued execution on strategic initiatives and consumer spending trends in the home improvement sector. Conversely, a significant economic downturn, increased competition, or persistent insider selling could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing the downside projection.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 292.52B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.50 |
| EPS (TTM) | 14.30 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.17% |
| 52 Week High | 426.75 |
| 52 Week Low | 289.10 |
The Home Depot (HD) exhibits a P/E ratio of 20.50, which is closely aligned with the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 20.80, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued relative to its peers. Its price-to-sales ratio is 1.73, and its revenue growth stands at 5.7%, slightly below the sector average of 7.2%. The company boasts an impressive return on equity of 104.30%, significantly outperforming the sector average of 12.4%. Profitability metrics show an operating margin of 12.86% and a net profit margin of 8.41%. The debt-to-equity ratio is 3.80, which is slightly higher than the sector median of 3.8. While the company demonstrates strong profitability and efficiency, the higher debt-to-equity ratio warrants monitoring. The forward revenue growth estimates for the current year are around 4.00%, indicating moderate expansion ahead.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
The Home Depot (HD) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending September 2026, with an EPS of $4.92, beating the estimate of $4.73 by 4.02% and resulting in a 2.02% price increase. Prior to this, the quarter ending June 2026 also saw an EPS beat of 0.59%. However, the quarter ending March 2026 showed a significant EPS surprise of 85.19% but resulted in a price decrease, and the quarter ending March 2026 (reported earlier) had a smaller beat with a price drop. Overall, the company has demonstrated a pattern of meeting or exceeding earnings expectations, though the market reaction has been mixed.
Key Risks
The primary risk for The Home Depot (HD) is the moderate insider selling, with $33.2 million in sales, indicating a potential lack of immediate conviction from management. Additionally, the stock is trading below key technical indicators like the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a bearish trend that could persist. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 3.80 is also slightly elevated compared to sector averages, posing a potential financial risk.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 25.41 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -9.87 |
| SMA 50 | 327.22 |
| SMA 200 | 340.77 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $327.22, 200-day: $340.77), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 25.4 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.46
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with HD? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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HD Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$290.27
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$293.20
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$280.69
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (25.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$298.98
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$304.78
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$313.49
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for HD is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in HD in September 2016 would be worth about $23,119 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in HD today could grow to about $21,568 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $60,331 and a bear case around $7,711. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
HD Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $399 for HD by 2030 in the base case, from $293 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $208. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on HD's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $229 | $317 | $438 |
| 2028 | $216 | $342 | $542 |
| 2029 | $210 | $369 | $649 |
| 2030 | $208 | $399 | $764 |
| 2031 | $208 | $431 | $891 |
| 2032 | $210 | $465 | $1,032 |
| 2033 | $212 | $502 | $1,187 |
| 2034 | $216 | $542 | $1,361 |
| 2035 | $221 | $586 | $1,554 |
| 2036 | $226 | $632 | $1,769 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using HD's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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HD Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$33.2M
19 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2021 | CAREY MATTHEW A
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 113.1K | $35.8M |
| Aug 21, 2019 | TOME CAROL B
Officer
|
Sell | 145.4K | $31.8M |
| Nov 18, 2020 | MENEAR CRAIG A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 95.3K | $26.1M |
| Dec 13, 2019 | MENEAR CRAIG A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 113.5K | $24.0M |
| Aug 20, 2021 | MENEAR CRAIG A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 68.5K | $22.3M |
| May 16, 2024 | CAREY MATTHEW A
Officer
|
Sell | 56.0K | $19.3M |
| Sep 10, 2020 | CAREY MATTHEW A
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 50.5K | $14.0M |
| Nov 16, 2022 | DECKER EDWARD P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 44.1K | $13.9M |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DECKER EDWARD P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 36.0K | $13.3M |
| Aug 21, 2025 | DECKER EDWARD P.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 32.9K | $13.1M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is The Home Depot's current stock price?
The Home Depot's stock is currently trading at $293.20 as of September 27, 2026.
Is The Home Depot stock a buy right now?
The Home Depot holds a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. While the stock is oversold on technical indicators, insider selling and a bearish trend below key moving averages suggest caution is warranted.
What is The Home Depot's price target for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, The Home Depot's stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $398.74 and a downside projection of $208.04. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How are The Home Depot's recent earnings?
The Home Depot recently reported an EPS of $4.92 for the quarter ending September 2026, beating estimates by 4.02%. While the company has a history of meeting or exceeding earnings expectations, market reactions have been mixed.
What are the key technical indicators for The Home Depot stock?
The Home Depot's stock is showing bearish momentum with its price below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($327.22 and $340.77). The RSI is in oversold territory at 25.41, suggesting a potential for a bounce, while the MACD is negative.
What is the insider sentiment for The Home Depot?
Insider sentiment for The Home Depot is currently bearish, with net sellers dominating transactions. Insiders have sold $33.2 million worth of stock in recent filings, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal'.
How does The Home Depot compare to its sector averages?
The Home Depot's P/E ratio is in line with the sector average, but its revenue growth is slightly below. However, its return on equity significantly outperforms the sector average, while its debt-to-equity ratio is slightly higher.