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Chipotle Mexican Grill vs Cava Group
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CMG vs CAVA: the verdict
How CMG and CAVA compare today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
The verdict
CleaRank Financial AI
Level on score
CMG
CAVA
38/100
AI score
38/100
-31.0%
1-year change
-19.0%
40.8%
Volatility (30d, yearly)
43.6%
33.3
RSI (14-day)
39.8
26.6x
P/E ratio
93.7x
None
Dividend yield
None
The verdict
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) and Cava Group, Inc. (CAVA) land on the same CleaRank score, 38/100 for each, which places both in the Sell band.
Key difference
Size is the plainest contrast here: CMG carries a market value of $36.0B, while CAVA's is $6.0B.
Outlook
CMG would need to regain its 50-day average at $33.42 and its 200-day at $34.26 to turn its downtrend. CAVA would need to regain its 50-day average at $57.83 and its 200-day at $71.82 to turn its downtrend.
Price, side by side
Both prices start at 0% on the first day of the period you pick, so the moves compare directly.
Rebased price
-10%0%+10%-0.1%-9.3%
Oct '26
-20%-10%0%+10%-14%-20%
Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
-40%-20%0%-16%-45%
May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
-40%-20%0%+20%+40%+60%-19%-31%
Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
-50%0%+50%-46%-48%
Sep '24Feb '25Jul '25Dec '25May '26Oct '26
Over 1 year: CMG lost 31.0% and CAVA lost 19.0%, a gap of 12.0 points in CAVA's favour.
Valuation and profitability
What each costs relative to its earnings and sales, and how much of its revenue it keeps.
Side by side
Valuation
Lower multiples mean you pay less for each dollar of earnings or sales.
CMG
CAVA
$36.0B
Market cap
$6.0B
26.6x
P/E ratio
93.7x
2.9x
Price / sales
4.4x
15.9x
Price / book
7.4x
17.4x
EV / EBITDA
39.4x
Profitability
How much of each dollar of revenue becomes profit, and how hard the capital works.
CMG
CAVA
+9.3%
Revenue growth (quarter, y/y)
+32.1%
11.4%
Net margin
4.8%
49.6%
Return on equity
8.3%
13.1%
Return on assets
3.5%
2.46
Debt / equity
0.62
On valuation
The higher trailing P/E belongs to CAVA, at 93.69 compared with 26.55 for CMG. Both P/Es sit at a premium to peers when set against the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8. CAVA also carries the richer price-to-sales multiple, 4.38 times against 2.89. Measured by market value, CMG is the bigger company at $36.0B, while CAVA is worth $6.0B.
On profitability
CMG keeps more of its sales as profit, with a net margin of 11.43% against 4.82%. CMG also earns the higher return on equity, 49.56% against 8.32%. In the latest quarter, year on year, revenue grew 9.31% at CMG and grew 32.08% at CAVA. No dividend is reported in our data for CMG. No dividend is reported in our data for CAVA.
Earnings reality check
CMG
CMG beat the estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports (latest Jul '26); the shares fell the next session after 1 of those beats.
Surprise
Next session
Feb '25Jul '25Feb '26Jul '26
CAVA
CAVA beat the estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports (latest Aug '26); the shares fell the next session after 2 of those beats.
Surprise
Next session
Feb '25Aug '25Feb '26Aug '26
Momentum and sentiment
The indicators behind each AI score, side by side.
Indicators side by side
CMG
CAVA
38/100
AI score
38/100
33.3
RSI (14-day)
39.8
-15.0%
Price against 50-day average
-10.9%
-17.1%
Price against 200-day average
-28.2%
Technicals
CMG is in a downtrend, trading 14.98% below its 50-day average and 17.07% below its 200-day average. Its 14-day RSI is 33.3, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative. CAVA is in a downtrend, trading 10.89% below its 50-day average and 28.25% below its 200-day average. Its 14-day RSI is 39.8, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative. CAVA sits higher in its 52-week range, at 15% against 8% for CMG.
Sentiment
Of the 35 analysts covering CMG, 23 rate it buy, 12 hold and 0 sell; their median target is $40.00, 40.8% above the price. Of the 28 analysts covering CAVA, 19 rate it buy, 8 hold and 1 sell; their median target is $84.50, 64.0% above the price.
Risk and practical tips
How much each moves, how much return each has paid for that risk, and what to watch if you hold either.
Risk measures
CMG
CAVA
40.8%
Volatility (30d, yearly)
43.6%
0.96
Beta against the S&P 500
1.81
-0.67
Sharpe ratio
-0.31
Risk
They move about the same on an average day, 2.26% for CMG and 2.51% for CAVA. Against the S&P 500, CMG has a beta of 0.96 and CAVA 1.81. Their worst falls in the price history were 59.1% for CMG (June 2024 to October 2026) and 71.1% for CAVA (December 2024 to November 2025). On these measures together, CAVA is the riskier of the two.
ProTips
- For CMG, watch the 20-day EMA at $30.27 above the price and the 52-week low at $27.31 below it.
- For CAVA, watch the 20-day EMA at $54.48 above the price and the 52-week low at $43.41 below it.
CMG vs CAVA: long-term scenarios
Simulated paths from each price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Simulated growth of $10,000
$10K$20K$30K$37.5K$28.9K$13K$12.4K
202620282029
CMG
CAVA
$5,827
Downside, 2029 (10th)
$4,078
$12,984
Base case, 2029 (median)
$12,373
$28,934
Upside, 2029 (90th)
$37,540
In the median simulated path, $10,000 in CMG grows to about $13,000 and $10,000 in CAVA to about $12,400 by 2029. The paths come from each asset's own historical volatility and trend; they are statistical outcomes, not forecasts.
Trade plans for both
Entry, stop and target levels from each moving average and its volatility. Educational, not advice.
Actionable Trade Plans
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
3%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
✎
Position Size: $200 - $300 per asset
CMG
Current: $28.41
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$28.98
Aggressive
$28.41
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$29.85
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
-5% from current
$26.99
-10% from current
$25.57
-15% from current
$24.15
CAVA
Current: $51.53
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$52.56
Aggressive
$51.53
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$54.14
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
-5% from current
$48.95
-10% from current
$46.38
-15% from current
$43.80
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
The content is for educational purposes only. The verdict weighs trend, valuation and risk together. Trading involves risk of loss. Note: The AI favored CMG based on growth trajectory, on today's data.
CMG vs CAVA: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which is better, CMG or CAVA?+
They score the same on CleaRank's model, 38/100. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation.
Which has performed better over the past year, CMG or CAVA?+
CAVA has done better: its price fell 18.98% over the past year, while CMG fell 31.03%.
Which is cheaper on earnings, CMG or CAVA?+
CMG's trailing P/E is the lower of the two, at 26.55 against 93.69 for CAVA.
Which is riskier, CMG or CAVA?+
CAVA is the riskier of the two on the measures we track. Average daily move: 2.26% for CMG, 2.51% for CAVA. Beta against the S&P 500: 0.96 for CMG, 1.81 for CAVA. Worst fall in the price history: 59.1% for CMG, 71.1% for CAVA.
Which has stronger momentum right now, CMG or CAVA?+
CAVA has the higher 14-day RSI, 39.8 (bearish) against 33.3 (bearish) for CMG. Both MACD lines are negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
Which is the bigger company, CMG or CAVA?+
CMG is the bigger company, valued at $36.0B compared with $6.0B for CAVA.
What do analysts say about CMG and CAVA?+
CMG counts 23 buy ratings out of 35 analysts, and its median target sits 40.8% above the price. CAVA counts 19 buy ratings out of 28, with a median target 64.0% above the price.
How would $10,000 have grown in CMG or CAVA?+
An investment of $10,000 in CMG from October 2016 would now be worth $38,539, while the same sum put into CAVA from June 2023 would be worth $13,507. Because the starting dates differ, these end values do not compare directly.
Which is closer to its 52-week high, CMG or CAVA?+
CMG is closer: it trades 31.41% below its 52-week high of $41.42, against 47.84% below $98.79 for CAVA.