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As of October 11, 2026, Coherent Corp. (COHR) trades at $312.62. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $420.00, 34.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $420.00 across 24 analysts. RSI at 47 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $304.10.
Coherent Corp. (COHR)
Coherent Corp. NYSE
$312.62
10.27 (3.40%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
74 / 100
Coherent Corp. (COHR) is trading at $312.62, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($304.10 and $292.64), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company operates in the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry within the Technology sector, a space characterized by a median P/E of 34 and revenue growth of 24.1%. Coherent Corp. itself exhibits strong revenue growth at 33.7% and a profit margin of 11.31%, though its P/E of 75.27 is significantly higher than the sector median. Analysts have a median price target of $420.00, suggesting a 34.3% upside from current levels, with a consensus rating of 'Buy'. The company's financial health appears solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32 and a return on equity of 7.98%, which is below the sector average of 13.4%. However, the substantial revenue growth and strong forward estimates from Wall Street, projecting 49.00% revenue growth for the current year and 39.00% for the next, suggest that the higher valuation is being driven by anticipated future expansion. The primary risk lies in sustaining this high growth rate and justifying the premium valuation against sector peers.
COHR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$318.50
Day Range
$302.35 to $332.09
Prev Close
$302.35
Volume
8.10M
52-Week Range
$105.02 to $440.00
Market Cap
$61.22B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+121%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
COHR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, COHR beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 4 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
COHR Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+34.35% Upside
Median of 24 analysts (12-month)
$420.00
AI Technical Analysis
Coherent Corp. is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($304.10 and $292.64), signaling an upward trend. The RSI is at 47.34, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD at 6.56 suggests positive underlying strength. Volume has been slightly above its average, with the latest volume at 8.1 million compared to an average of 7.27 million, supporting the current price action. The stock's chart structure indicates that the moving averages are acting as support levels. With the RSI in neutral territory, there is room for further upward movement before becoming overbought. Key resistance levels will be determined by the stock's ability to break through previous highs, while support is expected around the $304 to $292 range. The current technical setup suggests a continuation of the upward trend, provided broader market conditions remain favorable.
ProTips
- Monitor the impact of parent company divestitures on Coherent Corp.'s stock, as these large-scale transactions can influence short-term price action despite not reflecting management's confidence.
- With the RSI currently neutral, Coherent Corp. may have room for further upward price movement before reaching overbought territory, suggesting potential for continued gains if momentum persists.
- Given the premium valuation, investors should consider position sizing carefully and maintain a clear stop-loss strategy, potentially set at 1.5x the daily volatility (currently not provided) below the entry price.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Wall Street forecasts for Coherent Corp. indicate revenue growth of 49.00% for the current year and 39.00% for the next, suggesting significant market expansion and demand for its products.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Consensus and Price Target
A median analyst price target of $420.00 implies a 34.3% upside from the current price, supported by a 'Buy' consensus rating from 24 analysts.
Source: Wall Street SummaryNeutral
Parent Company Stake Reduction
Insiders are net sellers with $0 in total purchases vs $1.1B in total sales across 95 transactions. However, 96% of total selling ($1.1B) comes from parent/institutional stake reductions by BAIN CAPITAL INVESTORS, L.L.C., which represents a corporate restructuring or divestiture, NOT a bearish signal from company management. Actual officer/director selling totals $47.5M.
Source: Insider SummaryBullish
Above Moving Average Trading
Coherent Corp. is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($304.10 and $292.64), indicating positive short-to-medium term technical momentum.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Coherent Corp. anticipates continued strong performance, driven by strong revenue growth estimates and positive analyst sentiment. With a median price target of $420.00, the stock has potential for a 34.3% upside from its current trading price of $312.62. The company's position above key moving averages and strong forward revenue growth projections of 49.00% for the current year and 39.00% for the next support this optimistic view. Potential catalysts for upside include continued execution on its growth strategy and further positive earnings surprises, which could push the stock towards its higher analyst targets. Conversely, risks include the company's premium valuation, which could lead to sharp corrections if growth falters, and potential underperformance relative to sector peers in profitability metrics. The significant insider selling, though attributed to parent divestitures, also warrants close observation for any shifts in underlying sentiment.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 61.22B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 75.27 |
| EPS (TTM) | 4.12 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 440.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 105.02 |
Coherent Corp. presents a mixed valuation picture, with a P/E ratio of 75.27 significantly exceeding the technology sector median of 34. Its price-to-sales ratio of 8.53 also appears elevated compared to the sector median of 7.5. However, the company's strong revenue growth of 33.7% and projected growth rates of 49.00% for the current year and 39.00% for the next year, as estimated by Wall Street, may justify this premium valuation. Profitability metrics show a net profit margin of 11.31% and an operating margin of 11.83%, with a return on equity of 7.98%, which lags the sector average of 13.4%. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at a manageable 0.32. While current profitability metrics are not exceptional relative to the sector, the aggressive growth trajectory and positive analyst sentiment, reflected in a median price target of $420, suggest that investors are pricing in significant future earnings expansion.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Coherent Corp. has demonstrated a pattern of mixed earnings performance in recent quarters. The most recent reported quarter to June 2026 saw an EPS of $1.74, beating the estimate of $1.62 by 7.41%, although the stock experienced a price decline of -7.99%. Prior to this, the quarter to March 2026 reported an EPS of $1.41 against an estimate of $1.39, a slight beat, but the stock fell 7.39%. The company's forward earnings estimates are strong, with current year EPS projected at $9.42 and next year at $14.05, indicating significant anticipated profit growth.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Coherent Corp. is its high valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly above the sector average, which could lead to increased volatility if growth expectations are not met. The company's return on equity also trails its peers, suggesting potential inefficiencies in capital deployment. Also, the substantial insider selling, primarily from parent company divestitures totaling $1.1 billion, warrants monitoring, even if not indicative of management's lack of confidence.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 47.34 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 6.56 |
| SMA 50 | 304.10 |
| SMA 200 | 292.64 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($304.10) above the 200-day SMA ($292.64), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.57
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.65
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with COHR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
COHR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$306.37
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$312.62
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$261.18
MAX LOSS
-14.8%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (47.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$321.69
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$337.00
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$352.32
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
COHR is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 5.00%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in COHR in October 2016 would be worth about $122,356 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in COHR today could grow to about $41,770 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $316,893 and a bear case around $5,506. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
COHR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $554 for COHR by 2030 in the base case, from $313 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $154. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on COHR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $190 | $361 | $685 |
| 2028 | $168 | $416 | $1,030 |
| 2029 | $158 | $480 | $1,456 |
| 2030 | $154 | $554 | $1,995 |
| 2031 | $152 | $639 | $2,678 |
| 2032 | $153 | $737 | $3,542 |
| 2033 | $156 | $850 | $4,634 |
| 2034 | $160 | $981 | $6,010 |
| 2035 | $166 | $1,132 | $7,739 |
| 2036 | $172 | $1,306 | $9,907 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using COHR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. COHR is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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COHR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$1.1B
41 Transactions
Insiders
24
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$27.4M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2025 | BAIN CAPITAL INVESTORS, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 7.5M | $1.1B |
| Nov 6, 2025 | BARBAROSSA GIOVANNI
Officer
|
Sell | 60.7K | $9.7M |
| Oct 29, 2025 | BARBAROSSA GIOVANNI
Officer
|
Sell | 59.5K | $8.4M |
| Sep 12, 2017 | AMBROSEO JOHN R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $6.3M |
| May 22, 2017 | AMBROSEO JOHN R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $6.2M |
| Sep 1, 2026 | ENG JULIE SHERIDAN
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 13.1K | $3.6M |
| May 12, 2017 | VIJ SANDEEP S
Director
|
Sell | 14.0K | $3.4M |
| Dec 10, 2025 | CORASANTI JOSEPH J
Director
|
Sell | 15.0K | $3.0M |
| Aug 14, 2018 | SOBEY MARK STEWART
Officer
|
Sell | 13.0K | $2.4M |
| Jun 3, 2025 | SADASIVAM SHAKER
Director
|
Sell | 29.3K | $2.3M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Coherent Corp.'s stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Coherent Corp.'s stock is projected to reach a base case price of $553.81 by 2030, with a downside scenario of $153.73 and an upside scenario of $1995.05. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Coherent Corp. stock a buy right now?
Coherent Corp. currently holds a 'Buy' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, supported by a median price target of $420.00, indicating a potential 34.3% upside from its current price of $312.62.
How did Coherent Corp. perform in its latest earnings report?
In the quarter ending June 2026, Coherent Corp. reported an EPS of $1.74, exceeding the analyst estimate of $1.62 by 7.41%, though the stock saw a price decline of 7.99% following the announcement.
What are the key growth drivers for Coherent Corp.?
Wall Street analysts project substantial revenue growth for Coherent Corp., with an estimated 49.00% increase for the current year and 39.00% for the next, driven by strong demand in its technology segment.
What is Coherent Corp.'s debt situation?
Coherent Corp. maintains a manageable debt level, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32, which is below the sector average and suggests a healthy balance sheet.
How does Coherent Corp. compare to its sector peers?
While Coherent Corp. exhibits strong revenue growth, its P/E ratio of 75.27 and ROE of 7.98% are higher and lower, respectively, than the technology sector medians of 34 and 13.4%.
What is the outlook for Coherent Corp.'s earnings?
Forward earnings estimates for Coherent Corp. are strong, with current year EPS projected at $9.42 and next year's at $14.05, signaling significant profit growth potential.