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As of September 11, 2026, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trades at $546.65. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $635.00, 16.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $635.00 across 28 analysts. RSI at 59 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $512.07.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
Ulta Beauty, Inc. NASDAQ
$546.65
11.02 (2.06%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
70 / 100
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is currently trading at $546.65, below its 200-day moving average of $557.08, indicating a short-term bearish technical trend. However, the company's fundamentals remain strong, with consistent revenue growth projected for the coming quarters. Wall Street analysts collectively rate the stock a 'Buy', with a median price target of $635.00, suggesting a 16.2% upside potential from current levels. Recent insider activity shows a 'Moderate Sell Signal', with total sales of $1.02 million against $499,528 in purchases. While this warrants attention, the overall analyst sentiment and projected revenue growth provide a counterbalancing bullish perspective. The company's ability to consistently beat EPS estimates, as seen in recent quarters, further supports a positive outlook, despite a recent miss in Q1 2026.
ULTA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$542.91
Day Range
$531.77 to $546.65
Prev Close
$535.63
Volume
11.6K
52-Week Range
$443.60 to $714.97
Market Cap
$22.90B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XRT
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-0.006533% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
ULTA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ULTA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
ULTA Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+16.16% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$635.00
AI Technical Analysis
At $546.65, Ulta Beauty, Inc. exhibits neutral momentum, as indicated by an RSI of 59.22. The stock is trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $512.07 and its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $537.66, suggesting some underlying support. However, it remains below its 200-day SMA of $557.08, which is currently acting as resistance. Volume has been significantly below average recently, with the latest volume at 1,162 compared to a 707,492 average, indicating a lack of strong conviction from traders. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 200-day SMA and potentially higher psychological levels. The current technical setup suggests a neutral to cautiously optimistic near-term outlook, awaiting a decisive move above the 200-day SMA.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely, as recent selling activity has triggered a 'Moderate Sell Signal'.
- Consider the stock's position relative to its 200-day moving average; a sustained move above $557.08 would be a positive technical confirmation.
- Given the competitive retail landscape, focus on Ulta's ability to maintain market share and adapt to evolving consumer trends.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Revenue Growth Estimates
Projected revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year and 5.00% for the next year provides a solid fundamental backdrop for potential stock appreciation.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Strong Analyst Buy Consensus
A significant majority of Wall Street analysts maintain 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings, with a median price target of $635.00, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Recent insider transactions show net selling activity, with over $1 million in sales compared to approximately $500,000 in purchases, signaling potential caution among management.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Trading Below 200-Day Moving Average
The stock is currently trading below its 200-day SMA of $557.08, which is acting as resistance, suggesting a need for further positive momentum to confirm a bullish technical trend.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates projecting a 7.00% increase year-over-year, reaching approximately $13.3 billion. The median analyst price target of $635.00 suggests a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of $546.65, indicating a base case scenario for continued appreciation over the next 6-12 months. Upside potential could be further enhanced by stronger-than-expected consumer spending in the beauty sector or successful expansion initiatives. Conversely, a significant slowdown in consumer discretionary spending, increased competition, or a shift in consumer preferences could pressure revenue and profitability, potentially leading to a downside scenario. The 'Moderate Sell Signal' from insider transactions warrants monitoring for any further negative developments.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 22.90B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.50 |
| EPS (TTM) | 27.47 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 714.97 |
| 52 Week Low | 443.60 |
Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.50, which appears reasonable given its projected revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year. This P/E is in line with the sector average of 19.5, suggesting fair valuation relative to its peers. The company's consistent revenue growth, with an 8.9% increase reported previously and projected 4.00% for the current quarter, indicates sustained demand for its products. The company's ability to consistently meet or exceed earnings estimates, with a few exceptions, points to operational efficiency. The current valuation does not appear excessively stretched, especially when considering the projected growth trajectory and the positive analyst sentiment.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Ulta Beauty, Inc. most recently reported Q1 2026 earnings on August 27, 2026, with an EPS of $6.55, beating the estimate of $6.20 by 5.65%, though the stock saw a -4.18% price reaction. Prior to this, the company delivered a strong Q4 2026 EPS of $7.74, exceeding estimates by 12.34%, but also experienced a -4.78% stock decline. The company missed estimates in Q1 2026 and Q4 2025, but beat in Q3 2025 and Q2 2026, indicating a somewhat mixed but generally positive earnings performance trend.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Ulta Beauty, Inc. stems from recent insider selling activity, which has resulted in a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with over $1 million in sales versus less than $500,000 in purchases. Additionally, the stock is currently trading below its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential near-term headwinds and a need for confirmation of a sustained upward trend. Competitive pressures within the specialty retail sector also present an ongoing challenge.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 59.22 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 9.06 |
| SMA 50 | 512.07 |
| SMA 200 | 557.08 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $512.07, 200-day: $557.08), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.31
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
ULTA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$535.72
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$546.65
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$513.22
MAX LOSS
-4.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (59.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$562.50
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$589.29
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$616.07
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ULTA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ULTA in September 2016 would be worth about $22,098 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ULTA today could grow to about $21,075 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $102,506 and a bear case around $4,333. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ULTA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $737 for ULTA by 2030 in the base case, from $547 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $271. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ULTA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $357 | $589 | $971 |
| 2028 | $313 | $635 | $1,287 |
| 2029 | $287 | $684 | $1,626 |
| 2030 | $271 | $737 | $2,003 |
| 2031 | $259 | $794 | $2,429 |
| 2032 | $251 | $855 | $2,911 |
| 2033 | $245 | $921 | $3,460 |
| 2034 | $241 | $992 | $4,085 |
| 2035 | $238 | $1,069 | $4,795 |
| 2036 | $237 | $1,152 | $5,604 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ULTA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
ULTA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$499.5K
1 Transactions
Sold
$1.0M
4 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$304.5K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 427.0K | $130.4M |
| Mar 29, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 402.7K | $122.9M |
| Apr 9, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 280.8K | $90.1M |
| Mar 20, 2019 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 242.4K | $81.2M |
| Mar 22, 2019 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 162.5K | $54.4M |
| Apr 7, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 155.1K | $49.2M |
| Apr 13, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 140.5K | $46.1M |
| Mar 19, 2019 | DILLON MARY N
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 120.9K | $40.4M |
| Mar 30, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 120.9K | $37.4M |
| Jun 4, 2021 | DILLON MARY N
Director
|
Sell | 81.7K | $26.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. stock a buy right now?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $635.00, suggesting a 16.2% upside from its current price of $546.65. While recent insider selling is a point of caution, the company's consistent revenue growth and analyst consensus support a bullish stance.
What is Ulta Beauty's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $736.58 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $270.85, and the upside projection is $2,003.09. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Ulta Beauty, Inc.?
The primary risks for Ulta Beauty include recent insider selling activity indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal', and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, which acts as resistance. Competitive pressures within the specialty retail sector also pose a continuous challenge.
How has Ulta Beauty performed in recent earnings reports?
Ulta Beauty recently reported Q1 2026 EPS of $6.55, beating estimates by 5.65%, although the stock reacted negatively. The company has shown a mixed but generally positive earnings trend, with several recent quarters exceeding analyst expectations.
What is Ulta Beauty's valuation compared to its sector?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a P/E ratio of 19.50, which is in line with the sector average of 19.5. This suggests that the stock is fairly valued relative to its industry peers, especially considering its projected revenue growth.
What is the analyst consensus for Ulta Beauty stock?
The Wall Street consensus for Ulta Beauty, Inc. is 'Buy', with 28 analysts covering the stock. This includes 4 'Strong Buy' ratings, 15 'Buy' ratings, and 8 'Hold' ratings, contributing to a Wall Street score of 70 out of 100.
What is the technical outlook for Ulta Beauty stock?
Ulta Beauty's technical indicators show neutral momentum with an RSI at 59.2. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 20-day moving averages but below its 200-day moving average, which is currently acting as resistance. Low recent trading volume suggests a lack of strong conviction.