Stock·NASDAQ·Consumer Cyclical
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
- Market cap
- $26.74B
- P/E
- 22.76
- Dividend yield
- None
- Street target
- $635.00median of 28 analysts
- 52-week range
- $443.60 $714.97
ULTA stock forecast today
Where ULTA stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
ULTA at a glance
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA): Buy, 76/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($555.21 and $553.50).
- Earnings ULTA beat estimates in 7 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after 3 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $2.1M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 22.8 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: broadly in line with peers (+9%).
Figures as of October 26, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Buy, with a model score of 76/100.
The trend lifts the score most: the price is 12.98% above its 200-day average and 12.63% above its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 0.31% above the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $555.21 and the 200-day at $553.50. Over the past year the price rose 20.80%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from ULTA's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
ULTA stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
4/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $625.33 is 12.6% above the 50-day simple moving average of $555.21.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 13.0% above the 200-day simple moving average of $553.50.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($555.21) is 0.3% above the 200-day average ($553.50), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 67% of its 52-week range, between $443.60 and $714.97.
ULTA share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far ULTA has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where ULTA sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
ULTA fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
2/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 22.76 is 9.4% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 2.06 is 8.5% above the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $1.2B on revenue of $13.0B, a net margin of 9.3%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
ULTA beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.
Key statistics
The headline figures for ULTA.
As of October 26, 2026, ULTA trades at $625.33, with a market value of $26.74B and a P/E ratio of 22.76.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of ULTA's valuation, growth and risks.
At 22.76 times trailing earnings, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) has a P/E that is 9.4% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8. The peer comparison on this page rates that P/E as broadly in line with peers. On sales, ULTA trades at 2.06 times, which is 8.4% above the sector median of 1.9. To put the size in context, ULTA has a market capitalisation of $26.7B and trailing earnings of $27.44 per share.
Profitability shows a net margin of 9.34% and an operating margin of 12.51%, with a return on equity of 46.12%, above the sector median of 12.4%. The balance sheet rounds out the picture, with debt-to-equity of 0.95.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) reported $6.55 a share against a $6.20 estimate in its August 27, 2026 report, beating the estimate by 5.65%. The share price still fell 4.18% in the first session after the report.
ULTA has beaten the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, yet the stock fell in the first session after 3 of those 7 beats. The sharpest earlier drop followed the March 12, 2026 report, when EPS missed the estimate by 0.25% and the share price fell 14.24%. For the current fiscal year, analysts expect EPS of $28.95, a rise of 12.9%, and $32.00 next year, which is growth of 10.5%.
The 30-day standard deviation of ULTA's daily returns is 1.78%; measured against the S&P 500, its beta is 0.84.
ULTA against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How ULTA compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (9% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
Return vs SPY: Since May 14, 2025, ULTA has gained 52.0% against a gain of 30.2% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
ULTA and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much ULTA sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
The quarterly bars end with Q2 '26 (the quarter to April 30, 2026); ULTA reported again on August 27, 2026, and that quarter is not in our statement data yet. The 12-month figures come from the statistics feed and may include it.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 9.7% in FY2026 to $12.4B, from $11.3B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 9.3% in FY2026, down from 10.6% the year before.
Profitable: ULTA earned $1.2B in FY2026.
Earnings reality check
Did ULTA beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: ULTA beat the analyst estimate in 7 of the last 8 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 3 of those 7 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026after close | $6.20 | $6.55 | +5.65% | -4.18% | +3.15% |
| Jun 2, 2026after close | $6.89 | $7.74 | +12.34% | -4.78% | -3.43% |
| Mar 12, 2026after close | $8.03 | $8.01 | -0.25% | -14.24% | -14.50% |
| Dec 4, 2025after close | $4.61 | $5.14 | +11.50% | +12.65% | +11.14% |
| Aug 28, 2025after close | $5.10 | $5.78 | +13.33% | -7.14% | -2.97% |
| May 29, 2025after close | $5.80 | $6.70 | +15.52% | +11.78% | +10.73% |
| Mar 13, 2025after close | $7.14 | $8.46 | +18.49% | +13.68% | +8.40% |
| Dec 5, 2024after close | $4.52 | $5.14 | +13.72% | +8.99% | +7.90% |
As of October 26, 2026, ULTA has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 3 of those beats; its latest report, on August 27, 2026, came in 5.65% above the estimate and the stock moved -4.18% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
ULTA AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 69.4, showing bullish momentum without being overbought.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 69.4 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of ULTA
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) remains in an uptrend, trading at $625.33. The price is 12.63% above its 50-day average of $555.21 and 12.98% above its 200-day average of $553.50. That 50-day average is 0.31% above the 200-day, so the averages back up the move instead of working against it. Inside its 52-week range of $443.60 to $714.97, the price stands at 67%, and it is 12.54% below the high.
The 14-day RSI of 69.4 is in the bullish zone, below the overbought line, and the MACD line is positive. The recent returns are all positive: the price rose 30.14% over the past three months, rose 15.87% over the past six months and rose 20.80% over the past year.
Analyst upgrade ›
Wells Fargo upgraded it to Equal-Weight from Underweight on September 15, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Wells Fargo, September 15, 2026
Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›
The August 27, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 5.65%, and the share price fell 4.18% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, August 27, 2026New analyst coverage ›
BMO Capital started coverage at Market Perform on September 9, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, BMO Capital, September 9, 2026
- Two levels matter most right now: the 52-week high at $714.97 above the price, and the 20-day EMA at $588.05 below it.
- The 14-day RSI is 69.4, which falls in the bullish zone, and the MACD line is positive. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
- ULTA's share price fell 4.18% in the first session after the August 27, 2026 report, even though the company has beaten estimates in 7 of its last 8 reports.
The uptrend rests on ULTA staying above its 50-day average at $555.21 and its 200-day average at $553.50; a close below the 50-day would be the first crack in it. On a pullback, the first level the price would meet is the 20-day EMA at $588.05.
The next level overhead for ULTA is its 52-week high of $714.97. With the RSI in the bullish zone, momentum still supports the current move.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for ULTA, from its daily closes.
As of October 26, 2026, with ULTA at $625.33, its 14-day RSI is 69.4 (showing bullish momentum without being overbought), its 50-day simple moving average is $555.21 and its 200-day is $553.50.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 26, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What ULTA moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 26, 2026, ULTA's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.33 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.27 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.06 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.04 with gold (XAU).
ULTA price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
19 of 28 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 1 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $635.00 is 1.5% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
19 of 28 rate it a buy now, against 19 of 27 three months ago.
ULTA Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Jefferies | Maintains | Buy |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Equal-Weight |
| Sep 14, 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy |
| Sep 9, 2026 | BMO Capital | Initiates | Market Perform |
| Aug 28, 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral |
As of October 26, 2026, 28 Wall Street analysts cover ULTA: 19 rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $500.00 to $731.00. The median ULTA price target is $635.00, 1.5% above the price of $625.33.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
ULTA trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
ULTA trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from ULTA's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much ULTA tends to move, against the market and on its own.
ULTA price history and drawdowns
ULTA's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.78% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 56.5%, from June 2019 to March 2020, regained by August 2021.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
61% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $26,071, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
ULTA Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 26, 2026, ULTA's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -56.5% (June 2019 to March 2020); it regained that peak by August 2021, 17 months after the low, and 61% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into ULTA in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: ULTA trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $26,071 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in ULTA in October 2016 would be worth about $26,071 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to ULTA, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +8.99%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -5.03%, up in 5 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -4.51%, up in 1 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, ULTA's strongest calendar month has been November (average +8.99%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -5.03%, up in 5 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
ULTA stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in ULTA, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in ULTA today could grow to about $13,490 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $36,605 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $4,971. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ULTA Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $844 for ULTA by 2030 in the base case, from $625 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $311. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ULTA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $409 | $674 | $1,110 | |
| 2028 | $359 | $726 | $1,471 | |
| 2029 | $330 | $783 | $1,858 | |
| 2030 | $311 | $844 | $2,289 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of ULTA's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
ULTA insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
ULTA insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: No insider bought ULTA shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 26, 2026, ULTA insiders reported 5 open-market sales worth $2.1M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Kecia Steelman
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 2.0K | $1.1M |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Lorna E Nagler
Director
|
Sell | 600 | $322.4K |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Kelly E Garcia
Chief Technology Officer
|
Grant | 2.9K | - |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Brieane Lee Olson
Director
|
Grant | 271 | - |
| Jun 15, 2026 | George R Mrkonic Jr
Director
|
Sell | 383 | $182.2K |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Martin Brok
Director
|
Grant | 404 | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Kelly E Garcia
Director
|
Grant | 404 | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Catherine Ann Halligan
Director
|
Grant | 404 | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Stephenie Lee Landry
Director
|
Grant | 404 | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | George R Mrkonic Jr
Director
|
Grant | 404 | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Lorna E Nagler
Director
|
Grant | 404 | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Michael C Smith
Director
|
Grant | 404 | - |
| Apr 7, 2026 | George R Mrkonic Jr
Director
|
Sell | 452 | $243.8K |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Rene Gabriel Casares
Officer
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Christopher Delorefice
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 4.2K | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Christopher Lialios
Officer
|
Grant | 519 | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Anita Jane Ryan
Officer
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Kecia Steelman
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 10.9K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Anita Jane Ryan
Officer
|
Grant | 644 | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Kecia Steelman
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 3.4K | - |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Catherine Ann Halligan
Director
|
Grant | 340 | - |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Christopher Delorefice
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 5.5K | - |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Michael C Smith
Director
|
Sell | 500 | $264.2K |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Martin Brok
Director
|
Grant | 277 | - |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Stephenie Lee Landry
Director
|
Grant | 277 | - |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Kelly E Garcia
Director
|
Grant | 383 | - |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Catherine Ann Halligan
Director
|
Grant | 383 | - |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Patricia A. Little
Director
|
Grant | 383 | - |
| Jun 11, 2025 | George R Mrkonic Jr
Director
|
Grant | 383 | - |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Lorna E Nagler
Director
|
Grant | 383 | - |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Heidi G Petz
Director
|
Grant | 383 | - |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Michael C Smith
Director
|
Grant | 383 | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
ULTA stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 26, 2026.