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As of October 11, 2026, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trades at $570.37. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $635.00, 11.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $635.00 across 28 analysts. RSI at 58 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $540.31.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
Ulta Beauty, Inc. NASDAQ
$570.37
6.160 (1.09%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
71 / 100
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is trading at $570.37, positioning itself above key moving averages including its 50-day ($540.31) and 200-day ($554.62) SMAs. The stock's RSI is neutral at 58.22, indicating a balanced market sentiment without immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Analysts maintain a positive outlook, with a median price target of $635.00, suggesting an 11.3% upside from current levels. The company's financial health is strong, characterized by a high return on equity of 46.12% and a healthy profit margin of 9.34%, which aligns with its premium valuation metrics. Despite a moderate sell signal from insider transactions totaling $2.1 million in sales versus no reported purchases, the overall analyst consensus remains a 'Buy' with a score of 71 out of 100. This positive sentiment is underpinned by strong forward-looking estimates for both earnings and revenue growth, with analysts projecting 13.1% EPS growth and 7.00% revenue growth for the current year. The company's market capitalization stands at $24.39 billion, and its price-to-sales ratio of 1.88 is in line with its sector averages, suggesting that its premium valuation is supported by its performance and growth prospects.
ULTA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$568.14
Day Range
$559.09 to $571.00
Prev Close
$564.21
Volume
384.1K
52-Week Range
$443.60 to $714.97
Market Cap
$24.39B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (0% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
ULTA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ULTA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
ULTA Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+11.33% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$635.00
AI Technical Analysis
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($540.31 and $554.62), indicating a generally bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58.22, reflecting neutral momentum, suggesting neither an overbought nor oversold condition. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive at 5.46, further supporting the current upward trend. Key support levels are indicated by the 50-day SMA at $540.31 and the 200-day SMA at $554.62, while the current price of $570.37 suggests these averages are acting as support. Volume has been slightly above average, with the latest volume at 384,100 compared to an average of 374,860, indicating sustained investor interest. The stock's stochastic indicator is high at 98.29, suggesting it is nearing overbought territory, which could signal a potential short-term pause or pullback.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; while recent activity shows moderate selling, any shift towards net buying could signal increased management confidence.
- Given the stock's RSI nearing overbought territory, consider potential short-term volatility and position sizing accordingly.
- Ulta Beauty's strong revenue growth and healthy profit margins provide a solid foundation, but keep an eye on competitive pressures in the specialty retail sector.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Analyst Ratings and Price Target Increases
Multiple analysts have maintained 'Buy' ratings and reiterated price targets, with the median target at $635.00, indicating continued Wall Street confidence in Ulta Beauty's growth prospects.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBullish
Strong Forward-Looking Growth Estimates
Analysts project strong earnings and revenue growth for the current and next year, with current year EPS estimated at $28.95 and revenue growth at 7.00%, supporting the bullish outlook.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $2.1 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, resulting in a moderate insider selling, which could indicate a lack of immediate conviction from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Negative Price Reaction to Recent Earnings
Despite beating EPS estimates in the most recent quarters, Ulta Beauty's stock experienced price declines, suggesting that market expectations are high and any perceived shortfall can lead to negative sentiment.
Source: Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is expected to maintain its positive trajectory, with analysts projecting a median price target of $635.00, implying an 11.3% upside from its current trading price of $570.37. The company's strong fundamental performance, including a high return on equity and profit margins that significantly outperform sector averages, supports this optimistic outlook. Analysts forecast continued growth, with current year EPS estimated at $28.95 and revenue growth projected at 7.00%. Potential upside catalysts include continued market share gains in the beauty retail space and successful execution of its growth strategies, which could drive earnings beyond current estimates. However, risks such as increasing competition, potential shifts in consumer spending habits, and the recent pattern of price declines following earnings reports warrant close monitoring. Any significant deviation from projected growth or margin expansion could pressure the stock, especially given its current valuation which, while fair relative to peers, offers limited room for error.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 24.39B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.76 |
| EPS (TTM) | 27.44 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 714.97 |
| 52 Week Low | 443.60 |
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) exhibits a strong financial profile, with a current P/E ratio of 20.76, which is closely aligned with the sector median of 20.8, indicating a fair valuation relative to its peers. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.88, also in line with the sector average of 1.9. The company boasts an exceptional return on equity of 46.12% and a healthy profit margin of 9.34%, significantly outperforming the sector's average ROE of 12.4%. This strong profitability and growth efficiency, evidenced by a revenue growth rate of 8.9% which surpasses the sector average of 7.2%, supports its current valuation. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.95, which is slightly above the sector average, but its strong profitability and cash flow generation appear sufficient to manage this leverage. Forward estimates suggest continued growth, with analysts projecting 13.1% EPS growth and 7.00% revenue growth for the current year.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) has demonstrated a mixed but generally positive earnings performance in its recent quarters. The company most recently reported an EPS of $6.55 for the quarter ending September 2026, beating the estimate of $6.20 by 5.65%, although this was accompanied by a price drop of 4.18%. Prior to that, the quarter ending June 2026 saw an EPS of $7.74, exceeding estimates by 12.01%, but also resulted in a price decline of 4.78%. The company missed estimates in the quarter ending December 2025 and March 2026, indicating some variability in its ability to meet analyst expectations consistently.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stems from insider selling, with $2.1 million in sales reported against no purchases, signaling a moderate sell signal from management. While the stock's valuation is in line with sector averages, its premium metrics, such as a high ROE, could be vulnerable to any slowdown in growth or margin compression. Also, the recent earnings reports, while showing some beats, have been met with price declines, suggesting that market expectations may be very high and any perceived miss can lead to significant pullbacks.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 58.22 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 5.46 |
| SMA 50 | 540.31 |
| SMA 200 | 554.62 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $540.31, 200-day: $554.62), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.30
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.19
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with ULTA? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
ULTA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$558.96
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$570.37
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$541.08
MAX LOSS
-3.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (58.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$586.91
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$614.86
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$642.81
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ULTA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ULTA in October 2016 would be worth about $24,101 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ULTA today could grow to about $22,028 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $107,196 and a bear case around $4,526. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ULTA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $782 for ULTA by 2030 in the base case, from $570 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $288. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ULTA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $374 | $617 | $1,018 |
| 2028 | $329 | $668 | $1,355 |
| 2029 | $304 | $723 | $1,720 |
| 2030 | $288 | $782 | $2,128 |
| 2031 | $277 | $847 | $2,592 |
| 2032 | $269 | $916 | $3,121 |
| 2033 | $264 | $991 | $3,726 |
| 2034 | $261 | $1,073 | $4,418 |
| 2035 | $259 | $1,161 | $5,209 |
| 2036 | $258 | $1,256 | $6,114 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ULTA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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ULTA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$2.1M
5 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$420.9K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 427.0K | $130.4M |
| Mar 29, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 402.7K | $122.9M |
| Apr 9, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 280.8K | $90.1M |
| Mar 20, 2019 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 242.4K | $81.2M |
| Mar 22, 2019 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 162.5K | $54.4M |
| Apr 7, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 155.1K | $49.2M |
| Apr 13, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 140.5K | $46.1M |
| Mar 19, 2019 | DILLON MARY N
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 120.9K | $40.4M |
| Mar 30, 2021 | HEILBRONN CHARLES
Director
|
Sell | 120.9K | $37.4M |
| Jun 4, 2021 | DILLON MARY N
Director
|
Sell | 81.7K | $26.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock a buy right now?
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) currently holds a 'Buy' consensus rating from analysts with a consensus score of 71. The median analyst price target is $635.00, suggesting an 11.3% upside from the current price of $570.37. Strong fundamentals and positive growth estimates support this outlook.
What is Ulta Beauty's (ULTA) stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Ulta Beauty's (ULTA) stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $782.25 and a downside projection of $287.55. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How are Ulta Beauty's (ULTA) recent earnings performing?
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) recently reported an EPS of $6.55 for the quarter ending September 2026, beating estimates by 5.65%. However, the stock experienced a price decline following this report, indicating that market sentiment can be sensitive to earnings outcomes.
What is Ulta Beauty's (ULTA) P/E ratio compared to its sector?
Ulta Beauty's (ULTA) P/E ratio of 20.76, which is closely aligned with the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 20.8. This suggests that the stock is trading at a fair valuation relative to its industry peers.
What are the key risks facing Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock?
Key risks include moderate insider selling activity, with $2.1 million in sales and no reported purchases. Additionally, the stock's premium valuation could be challenged by any deceleration in growth or margin pressures, and recent earnings reports have shown that the market can react negatively even to positive EPS surprises.
How does Ulta Beauty's (ULTA) revenue growth compare to its sector?
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) has a reported revenue growth of 8.9%, which is higher than the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 7.2%. This indicates strong performance in expanding its top line relative to its peers.
What is the current analyst consensus for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)?
The current Wall Street consensus for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is 'Buy', with 4 Strong Buys, 15 Buys, and 9 Holds among 28 analysts. The overall consensus score is 71 out of 100.