McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation NYSE
MCD at a glance
McDonald's Corporation (MCD): Hold, 50/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($253.73 and $286.60).
- Insiders Insiders sold $47.1M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 19.2 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: broadly in line with peers (-8%).
As of October 14, 2026, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) trades at $236.68. Wall Street's consensus target is $293.00 across 34 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 40, showing bearish momentum without being oversold, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $253.73.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MCD's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
MCD Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
MCD Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
| Report | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $3.32 | $3.38 | +1.81% | +2.11% | +2.17% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $3.05 | $3.12 | +2.30% | +2.74% | +1.21% |
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 14, 2026, MCD has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 2 of its last 2 reported quarters and rose in the first trading session after every one of those beats; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 1.81% above the estimate and the stock moved +2.11% in the first session.
MCD Analysis
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current 'Moderate Sell Signal' with over $47 million in sales warrants attention.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($253.73 and $286.60), suggesting potential for further downside or a period of consolidation before a sustained upward move.
Insiders have sold approximately $47.1 million worth of stock across recent filings, with no reported purchases, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal'.
Source: Insider Trading DataThe stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($253.73) and 200-day SMA ($286.60), with a 14-day RSI of 39.95 indicating bearish momentum.
Source: Technical Analysis DataMcDonald's has recently exceeded EPS estimates, with a 1.81% surprise in August 2026 and a 2.3% surprise in February 2026, driving positive price reactions.
Source: Earnings ReportsThe median analyst price target is $293.00, suggesting a 23.8% upside potential from the current price, supported by a 'Buy' consensus rating.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsKey Statistics
| Market Cap | 166.87B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.16 |
| EPS (TTM) | 12.31 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.14% |
| 52 Week High | 341.75 |
| 52 Week Low | 229.20 |
As of October 14, 2026, MCD trades at $236.68, with a market value of $166.87B, a P/E ratio of 19.16 and a dividend yield of 3.14%.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Key Risks
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14-day) | 39.95 |
|---|---|
| MACD (12, 26) | -5.26 |
| SMA (50-day) | 253.73 |
| SMA (200-day) | 286.60 |
As of October 14, 2026, with MCD at $236.68, its 14-day RSI is 40.0 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $253.73 and its 200-day is $286.60.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
As of October 14, 2026, MCD's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.15 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.03 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), -0.03 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.08 with gold (XAU).
How does any other asset move with MCD? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
MCD Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Market Perform |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Keybanc | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Neutral |
| Sep 29, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Melius Research | Maintains | Sell |
As of October 14, 2026, 34 Wall Street analysts cover MCD: 19 rate it a buy or strong buy, 14 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $230.00 to $390.00, with a median of $293.00, 23.8% above the price of $236.68.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
MCD Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from MCD's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MCD in October 2016 would be worth about $20,669 today, compared with about $36,506 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
Compare with Another Ticker
MCD Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 14, 2026, MCD's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -37.5% (August 2019 to March 2020); it regained that peak by September 2020, 6 months after the low, and 80% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MCD today could grow to about $19,334 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $44,700 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $8,362. The simulation models price only; at today's 3.14% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MCD Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $308 for MCD by 2030 in the base case, from $237 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $181. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MCD's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $194 | $253 | $330 |
| 2028 | $186 | $270 | $393 |
| 2029 | $182 | $288 | $456 |
| 2030 | $181 | $308 | $523 |
| 2031 | $182 | $329 | $595 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of MCD's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
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MCD Insider Trading Analysis
As of October 14, 2026, MCD insiders reported 31 open-market sales worth $47.1M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | ELTING LAUREN B.
Officer
|
Grant | 1.0K | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M
Officer
|
Sell | 5.3K | $1.5M |
| Jun 10, 2026 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M
Officer
|
Option | 5.3K | $828.7K |
| May 28, 2026 | RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN
Officer
|
Sell | 2.8K | $769.1K |
| May 26, 2026 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M
Officer
|
Sell | 333 | $93.3K |
| Apr 23, 2026 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M
Officer
|
Sell | 333 | $100.8K |
| Apr 10, 2026 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M
Officer
|
Sell | 2.6K | $806.2K |
| Apr 10, 2026 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M
Officer
|
Option | 2.6K | $414.4K |
| Mar 23, 2026 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M
Officer
|
Sell | 333 | $104.4K |
| Mar 18, 2026 | BARONI DARIO
Officer
|
Sell | 600 | $194.3K |