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As of September 11, 2026, McDonald's Corp. (MCD) trades at $253.05. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $305.00, 20.5% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $305.00 across 34 analysts. RSI at 26 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $268.57.
McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
McDonald's Corp. NYSE
$253.05
-0.4300 (-0.17%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) is currently trading at $253.05, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($268.57 and $295.20), signaling a bearish technical trend. The company's revenue growth has been modest at 3.7%, and while Wall Street maintains a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $305, indicating potential upside, recent insider activity presents a notable risk. Insiders have been net sellers, with $47.4 million in sales in recent filings, suggesting a lack of recent confidence from management. Despite these concerns, McDonald's operates in the stable Restaurants industry within the Consumer Cyclical sector, with an ETF of XLY. The company's forward revenue growth is estimated at 5.00% for the current year. While the stock's current price action is weak, the established brand and consistent, albeit slow, revenue growth provide a degree of resilience. However, the combination of technical weakness and insider selling warrants a cautious approach.
MCD Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$255.04
Day Range
$252.54 to $255.56
Prev Close
$253.48
Volume
4.35M
52-Week Range
$252.54 to $341.75
Market Cap
$179.07B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-19% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
MCD Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, MCD beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
MCD Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+20.53% Upside
Median of 34 analysts (12-month)
$305.00
AI Technical Analysis
McDonald's (MCD) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $268.57 and its 200-day SMA of $295.20, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 25.65, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but the MACD at -4.32 also points to bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price around $253.05, with resistance seen at the 50-day SMA. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with 4.35 million shares traded compared to a 4.57 million average. This lack of strong conviction on either side of the price action, coupled with the oversold RSI, suggests that while a bounce is possible, the broader trend remains downward until key moving averages are reclaimed. The current technical setup indicates caution for near-term price appreciation.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; significant selling pressure could indicate management's concerns about future performance.
- Given the oversold RSI, consider waiting for confirmation of a technical trend reversal before initiating new positions.
- The stock's current P/E ratio is below the sector average, but ensure this is not solely due to slower growth prospects compared to peers.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Significant Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $47.4 million worth of McDonald's (MCD) stock across 61 transactions, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term performance.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Bearish Technical Trend
McDonald's (MCD) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($268.57 and $295.20), with bearish momentum indicated by the MACD, suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Oversold RSI Conditions
The RSI for McDonald's (MCD) is at 25.65, indicating an oversold condition that could precede a short-term price bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Earnings Beat
McDonald's (MCD) recently beat EPS estimates for the August 4, 2026 quarter, leading to a 2.11% stock price increase, demonstrating operational resilience.
Source: Earnings AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for McDonald's (MCD) over the next 6-12 months anticipates a period of consolidation or a potential bounce from oversold technical levels, aiming towards the median analyst target price of $305. The company's established brand and consistent earnings performance provide a foundation for stability, and forward revenue growth is projected at 5.00% for the current year. However, the bearish technical trend, with the stock trading below key moving averages, and significant insider selling totaling $47.4 million, pose considerable downside risks. A failure to regain upward momentum could see the stock retest lower support levels, potentially challenging the $305.00 target, especially if broader market sentiment turns negative or competitive pressures intensify.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 179.07B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.54 |
| EPS (TTM) | 12.32 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.94% |
| 52 Week High | 341.75 |
| 52 Week Low | 252.54 |
McDonald's (MCD) exhibits a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.54, which is below the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation relative to its peers. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) stands at $12.32. While the P/E is lower than the sector average, the revenue growth of 3.7% is also below the sector's 10.0% average, indicating slower expansion. Profitability metrics are generally solid, with a positive net profit margin implied by the EPS and P/E. However, the company's growth rate is not as strong as some competitors, which is reflected in its valuation. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the current valuation suggests that the market is pricing in moderate growth and stability rather than aggressive expansion.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
McDonald's (MCD) most recently reported an EPS of $3.38 for the August 4, 2026 quarter, beating the estimate of $3.32 by 1.81%, which corresponded with a 2.11% increase in stock price. Prior to this, the company beat estimates in the May 6, 2026 quarter by 6.67% ($2.72 actual vs. $2.55 estimate), though the stock saw a slight decrease of 0.14%. The company has demonstrated a pattern of meeting or slightly exceeding earnings expectations over the last few reported quarters.
Key Risks
The primary risk for McDonald's (MCD) is the ongoing insider selling, with $47.4 million in sales, indicating a potential lack of confidence from management in the near-term outlook. Technically, the stock is trading below key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMAs) and exhibits bearish momentum, suggesting further downside potential. Additionally, the company's revenue growth of 3.7% is below the sector average, indicating a slower pace of expansion compared to peers.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 25.65 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.32 |
| SMA 50 | 268.57 |
| SMA 200 | 295.20 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $268.57, 200-day: $295.20), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 25.7 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.12
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
MCD Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$250.52
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$253.05
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$242.25
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (25.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$258.04
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$263.05
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$270.56
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MCD is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MCD in September 2016 would be worth about $21,824 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MCD today could grow to about $20,940 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $48,243 and a bear case around $9,089. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MCD Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $340 for MCD by 2030 in the base case, from $253 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $201. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MCD's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $209 | $272 | $355 |
| 2028 | $202 | $293 | $426 |
| 2029 | $200 | $316 | $499 |
| 2030 | $201 | $340 | $577 |
| 2031 | $203 | $366 | $661 |
| 2032 | $207 | $394 | $753 |
| 2033 | $211 | $425 | $853 |
| 2034 | $217 | $457 | $964 |
| 2035 | $223 | $492 | $1,086 |
| 2036 | $230 | $530 | $1,221 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MCD's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MCD Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$47.4M
32 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2018 | EASTERBROOK STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 201.1K | $35.3M |
| Nov 21, 2017 | EASTERBROOK STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 171.6K | $28.9M |
| Feb 13, 2026 | KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 52.6K | $17.5M |
| Feb 5, 2019 | FAIRHURST DAVID OGDEN
Officer
|
Sell | 76.4K | $13.6M |
| Jul 29, 2021 | OZAN KEVIN M
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 47.6K | $11.6M |
| Aug 4, 2016 | MCKENNA ANDREW J
Retired
|
Sell | 70.0K | $8.3M |
| May 1, 2019 | OZAN KEVIN M
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 40.9K | $8.0M |
| May 3, 2019 | KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
Officer
|
Sell | 38.7K | $7.6M |
| Jan 31, 2018 | GOARE DOUGLAS M
Officer
|
Sell | 34.6K | $6.0M |
| Aug 1, 2019 | LAGNADO SILVIA
Officer
|
Sell | 26.6K | $5.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is McDonald's stock a buy right now?
McDonald's (MCD) is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street with a median price target of $305, suggesting approximately 20.5% upside from its current price of $253.05. However, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and has seen significant insider selling, which warrants caution.
What is McDonald's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, McDonald's (MCD) stock is projected to reach a base price of $340.10 by 2030, with a downside projection of $200.62 and an upside projection of $576.55. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing McDonald's?
The primary risks for McDonald's (MCD) include significant insider selling totaling $47.4 million, a bearish technical setup with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($268.57 and $295.20), and slower revenue growth compared to its sector peers.
How is McDonald's performing financially?
McDonald's (MCD) reported an EPS of $3.38 in its latest quarter, beating estimates, and has shown consistent earnings performance. Revenue growth was 3.7%, and forward revenue growth is projected at 5.00% for the current year.
What is McDonald's valuation compared to its sector?
McDonald's (MCD) has a P/E ratio of 20.54, which is below the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation. However, its revenue growth of 3.7% is also below the sector average of 10.0%.
What is the RSI status for McDonald's stock?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for McDonald's (MCD) is currently 25.65, which is considered 'Oversold'. This suggests the stock may be due for a short-term bounce, but it does not negate the broader bearish trend indicated by its moving averages.
What is the outlook for McDonald's stock?
The outlook for McDonald's (MCD) is mixed, with a 'Hold' consensus and upside to the median analyst target price of $305. However, bearish technicals and significant insider selling present near-term challenges that could limit immediate gains.