Stock·NYSE·Consumer Cyclical
McDonald's Corp (MCD)
- Market cap
- $176.54B
- P/E
- 20.18
- Dividend yield
- 2.98%
- Street target
- $293.00median of 34 analysts
- 52-week range
- $229.20 $341.75
MCD stock forecast today
Where MCD stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
MCD at a glance
McDonald's Corp (MCD): Hold, 49/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 50-day but below its 200-day moving average ($249.03 and $283.98).
- Earnings MCD beat estimates in 3 of the 6 reports in our data, and the stock rose the next day every time.
- Insiders Insiders sold $46.8M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 20.2 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: broadly in line with peers (-3%).
Figures as of October 27, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates McDonald's Corp (MCD) Hold, with a model score of 49/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 19 of 34 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 17.4% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 12.15% below its 200-day average, and the 50-day average is 12.31% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $249.03 and the 200-day at $283.98. Over the past year the price fell 19.53%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MCD's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
MCD stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
1/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $249.47 is 0.2% above the 50-day simple moving average of $249.03.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 12.2% below the 200-day simple moving average of $283.98.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($249.03) is 12.3% below the 200-day average ($283.98), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 18% of its 52-week range, between $229.20 and $341.75.
MCD share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far MCD has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where MCD sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
MCD fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
3/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 20.18 is 3.0% below the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 6.35 is 234.0% above the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $8.8B on revenue of $27.7B, a net margin of 31.7%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
MCD beat the EPS estimate in 3 of the 6 reports in our data.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 2.98%, or $7.44 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for MCD.
As of October 27, 2026, MCD trades at $249.47, with a market value of $176.54B, a P/E ratio of 20.18 and a dividend yield of 2.98%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of MCD's valuation, growth and risks.
On earnings, McDonald's Corp (MCD) is valued at 20.18 times, against a median of 20.8 for Consumer Cyclical: broadly in line with peers, with the P/E 3.0% below that median. MCD has a market capitalisation of $176.5B.
Revenue grew 3.70%, which leaves MCD 3.5 percentage points slower than the sector median of 7.2%. Still, the company turns a large share of its sales into profit: the net margin is 31.72% and the operating margin is 46.49%. Shareholders also receive income, with a trailing dividend yield of 2.98%, or $7.44 a share each year.
McDonald's Corp (MCD) beat the estimate in its August 4, 2026 report, posting EPS of $3.38 against the $3.32 forecast, a beat of 1.81%. The shares moved up 2.11% in the next session.
The earnings record shows 3 beats in 6 reports, and every one of those beats was followed by a gain the next day. Analysts' average EPS estimate for this fiscal year is $12.89, which would be growth of 5.6%, and $13.74 for next year (growth of 6.6%).
MCD's daily returns have a 30-day standard deviation of 1.36%, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 0.45. The stock sits 27.00% under its 52-week high of $341.75. Insiders sold $46.8M over the last 18 months and bought nothing on the open market. Insider sales are often planned ahead, so they carry less weight than purchases would.
MCD against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How MCD compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-3% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
Return vs SPY: Since May 15, 2025, MCD has lost 20.7% against a gain of 30.4% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
MCD and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much MCD sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 3.7% in FY2025 to $26.9B, from $25.9B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 31.9% in FY2025, up from 31.7% the year before.
Profitable: MCD earned $8.6B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did MCD beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: MCD beat the analyst estimate in 3 of the 6 reports in our data.
Market reaction: The stock rose in the first session after every beat.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026after close | $3.32 | $3.38 | +1.81% | +2.11% | +2.17% |
| Feb 11, 2026after close | $3.05 | $3.12 | +2.30% | +2.74% | +1.21% |
| Nov 5, 2025after close | $3.33 | $3.22 | -3.30% | -2.38% | +0.42% |
| Aug 6, 2025after close | $3.15 | $3.19 | +1.27% | +0.08% | -0.84% |
| May 1, 2025after close | $2.67 | $2.67 | +0.00% | -0.54% | -0.05% |
| Feb 10, 2025after close | $2.86 | $2.83 | -1.05% | +0.58% | -1.16% |
As of October 27, 2026, MCD has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 3 of the 6 reports in our data and rose in the first trading session after every one of those beats; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 1.81% above the estimate and the stock moved +2.11% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
MCD AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 58.2, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 58.2 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of MCD
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
MCD shows a mixed trend. The stock is trading at $249.47, which is 0.18% above its 50-day average of $249.03, yet 12.15% below its 200-day average of $283.98. Near the bottom of its 52-week range, the price is 8.84% above the low of $229.20 and 27.00% below the high of $341.75. With the 50-day average 12.31% below the 200-day, the recovery has not yet climbed to the longer-run averages.
Recent gains sit against a weaker longer record: the price rose 5.48% over the past month, fell 8.63% over the past three months and fell 19.53% over the past year. Volume in the last session ran 27.5% below its average, on a day the price fell 0.54%. The 14-day RSI of 58.2 is in the neutral zone, and the MACD line is positive.
Earnings beat ›
The August 4, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 1.81%, and the share price rose 2.11% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, August 4, 2026Rating reaffirmed ›
Citigroup kept its Buy rating on October 20, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Citigroup, October 20, 2026
- Keep an eye on the two nearest levels: the 200-day SMA at $283.98 sits above the price, while the 50-day SMA at $249.03 sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 58.2, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line positive; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- After the August 4, 2026 report the share price rose 2.11% in the first session; MCD beat estimates in 3 of the 6 reports in our data.
The trend is mixed: MCD is above its 50-day average at $249.03 but below its 200-day average at $283.98. A close above the 200-day would turn both signals up, and a close below the 50-day would turn both down. The nearest levels are the 50-day SMA at $249.03 below and the 200-day SMA at $283.98 above.
MCD's 14-day RSI reads 58.2, which is neutral, sitting between 40 and 60.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for MCD, from its daily closes.
As of October 27, 2026, with MCD at $249.47, its 14-day RSI is 58.2 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $249.03 and its 200-day is $283.98.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 27, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What MCD moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 27, 2026, MCD's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.14 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.01 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), -0.04 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.05 with gold (XAU).
MCD price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
3/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
19 of 34 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 14 a hold and 1 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $293.00 is 17.4% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
19 of 34 rate it a buy now, against 18 of 34 three months ago.
MCD Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Market Perform |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Keybanc | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Neutral |
| Sep 29, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
As of October 27, 2026, 34 Wall Street analysts cover MCD: 19 rate it a buy or strong buy, 14 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $230.00 to $390.00. The median MCD price target is $293.00, 17.4% above the price of $249.47.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
MCD trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
MCD trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from MCD's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much MCD tends to move, against the market and on its own.
MCD price history and drawdowns
MCD's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.36% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 31.3%, from August 2019 to March 2020, regained by August 2020.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
83% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $28,417, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
MCD Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 27, 2026, MCD's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -31.3% (August 2019 to March 2020); it regained that peak by August 2020, 5 months after the low, and 83% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into MCD in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: MCD trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $28,417 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in MCD in October 2016 would be worth about $28,417 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to MCD, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +3.72%, up in 9 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -1.58%, up in 7 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +1.02%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, MCD's strongest calendar month has been November (average +3.72%, up in 9 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -1.58%, up in 7 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
MCD stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in MCD, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in MCD today could grow to about $13,185 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $22,406 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $7,759. The simulation models price only; at today's 2.98% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MCD Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $329 for MCD by 2030 in the base case, from $249 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $194. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MCD's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $205 | $267 | $348 | |
| 2028 | $197 | $286 | $417 | |
| 2029 | $194 | $307 | $486 | |
| 2030 | $194 | $329 | $559 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of MCD's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
MCD insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
MCD insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: No insider bought MCD shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
As of October 27, 2026, MCD insiders reported 30 open-market sales worth $46.8M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Lauren B. Elting
Officer
|
Grant | 1.0K | - |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 5.3K | $1.5M |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Option | 5.3K | $828.7K |
| May 28, 2026 | Desiree Ann Ralls-Morrison
Officer
|
Sell | 2.8K | $769.1K |
| May 26, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 333 | $93.3K |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 333 | $100.8K |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 2.6K | $806.2K |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Option | 2.6K | $414.4K |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 333 | $104.4K |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Dario Baroni
Officer
|
Sell | 600 | $194.3K |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 2.6K | $862.2K |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Option | 2.6K | $414.4K |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Jonathan Banner
Officer
|
Sell | 6.2K | $2.1M |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 333 | $110.0K |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Jonathan Banner
Officer
|
Option | 4.6K | $1.2M |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Christopher J Kempczinski
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 52.6K | $17.5M |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Jonathan Banner
Officer
|
Grant | 7.5K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Dario Baroni
Officer
|
Grant | 3.0K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Ian Frederick Borden
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 6.4K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tiffanie L Boyd
Officer
|
Grant | 2.3K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Grant | 6.0K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Option | 6.7K | $740.4K |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Christopher J Kempczinski
Chief Executive Officer
|
Option | 73.3K | $6.7M |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Gillian Clare Mc-Donald
Officer
|
Grant | 6.8K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Desiree Ann Ralls-Morrison
Officer
|
Grant | 4.1K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Brian S Rice
Officer
|
Grant | 2.8K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Manuel Jm Steijaert
Officer
|
Grant | 3.5K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Sell | 4.7K | $1.6M |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 2.6K | $854.1K |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Option | 2.6K | $414.4K |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 2.6K | $805.1K |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Option | 2.6K | $414.4K |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Desiree Ann Ralls-Morrison
Officer
|
Sell | 2.5K | $795.5K |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Sell | 658 | $207.3K |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Manuel Jm Steijaert
Officer
|
Sell | 6.6K | $2.0M |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Manuel Jm Steijaert
Officer
|
Option | 6.6K | $1.7M |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Ian Frederick Borden
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 17.1K | $5.3M |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Ian Frederick Borden
Chief Financial Officer
|
Option | 17.1K | $2.0M |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Grant | 690 | - |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 3.2K | $977.1K |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Manuel Jm Steijaert
Officer
|
Sell | 13.1K | $3.9M |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Manuel Jm Steijaert
Officer
|
Option | 13.1K | $3.4M |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Brian S Rice
Chief Technology Officer
|
Grant | 8.8K | - |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Sell | 1.0K | $315.0K |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Brian S Rice
Officer
|
Grant | 5.9K | - |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Sell | 4.7K | $1.5M |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Option | 4.7K | $740.4K |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Jonathan Banner
Officer
|
Sell | 1.0K | $310.0K |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Tiffanie L Boyd
Officer
|
Grant | 3.1K | - |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Lauren B. Elting
Officer
|
Grant | 1.0K | - |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Desiree Ann Ralls-Morrison
Officer
|
Sell | 2.5K | $771.0K |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Sell | 976 | $296.2K |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 939 | $281.2K |
| Jul 10, 2025 | Edith Morgan Flatley
Officer
|
Sell | 1.0K | $300.0K |
| Jun 23, 2025 | Joseph M Erlinger
Officer
|
Sell | 939 | $270.9K |
| May 23, 2025 | Joseph M Erlinger
President
|
Sell | 939 | $295.9K |
| May 20, 2025 | Manuel Jm Steijaert
Officer
|
Sell | 6.0K | $1.9M |
| May 20, 2025 | Manuel Jm Steijaert
Officer
|
Option | 6.0K | $1.5M |
| May 7, 2025 | Christopher J Kempczinski
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 31.8K | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
MCD stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 27, 2026.