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As of October 11, 2026, Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) trades at $196.16. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $210.00, 7.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $210.00 across 10 analysts. RSI at 27 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $213.08.
Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG)
Penske Automotive Group Inc. NYSE
$196.16
-1.890 (-0.95%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
58 / 100
Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) is currently trading at $196.16, below its 50-day SMA of $213.08 but above its 200-day SMA of $179.34, indicating a mixed technical picture. The company's fundamentals show a profit margin of 2.81% and a return on equity of 15.84%, which are solid within the auto dealership sector. However, recent analyst rating changes show a shift towards 'Hold' ratings, with 8 out of 10 analysts currently recommending the stock as such, despite a median price target of $210.00 suggesting a modest upside. insiders are net buyers, with $20.7 million in sales versus no reported purchases, contributing to a 'Moderate Sell Signal' verdict. This, combined with a consensus rating leaning towards 'Hold', suggests caution is warranted despite the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 13.90, which is below the sector median of 20.8. The company's revenue growth of 6% is slightly below the sector average of 7.2%, and its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.61 is in line with the sector median.
PAG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$197.99
Day Range
$196.00 to $198.70
Prev Close
$198.05
Volume
404.4K
52-Week Range
$140.12 to $227.00
Market Cap
$12.88B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs VCR
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-33%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
PAG Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, PAG beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
PAG Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+7.06% Upside
Median of 10 analysts (12-month)
$210.00
AI Technical Analysis
Penske Automotive Group Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day and 20-day SMAs, signaling short-term weakness, but remains above its 200-day SMA, indicating a longer-term uptrend is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.7, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a near-term bounce. MACD is also negative, indicating bearish momentum. Key support is identified around the 200-day SMA at $179.34, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA of $213.08 and the 20-day EMA of $204.72. Volume has been below average recently, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the current price action. The oversold RSI coupled with the price still holding above the 200-day SMA presents a mixed technical outlook, with potential for a rebound but caution advised until key moving averages are reclaimed.
ProTips
- Insider selling totaling over $20.7 million warrants close monitoring, as it suggests a lack of immediate conviction from management.
- The stock's oversold RSI (26.7) indicates potential for a near-term bounce, but confirmation requires reclaiming key moving averages like the 50-day SMA.
- Consider position sizing carefully given the mixed analyst ratings and insider selling trends.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold over $20.7 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating potential concerns or a need for liquidity among management.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Analyst Sentiment Shift Towards Hold
A significant portion of analysts have downgraded or maintained 'Hold' ratings, reflecting a cautious view on the stock's near-term prospects.
Source: Analyst RatingsBullish
Oversold RSI Suggests Potential Rebound
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.7, indicating the stock is in oversold territory and may be due for a technical bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Trading Above 200-Day SMA
Despite short-term weakness, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average, suggesting the longer-term uptrend may still be intact.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Penske Automotive Group Inc. suggests a potential for modest appreciation, supported by its current trading price below its fair value and sector averages, alongside an oversold RSI indicating a possible short-term rebound. The median analyst price target of $210.00 implies a 7.1% upside from the current price of $196.16. However, the outlook is tempered by significant insider buying and a prevailing 'Hold' consensus among analysts. A shift in analyst sentiment or a continuation of insider divestitures could pressure the stock. Conversely, a strong earnings beat coupled with positive forward guidance, or a reversal in insider transaction trends, could drive the stock towards its 50-day SMA resistance at $213.08 and potentially higher.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 12.88B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.90 |
| EPS (TTM) | 14.22 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.87% |
| 52 Week High | 227.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 140.12 |
Penske Automotive Group Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture, trading at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.90, which is a discount to the sector median of 20.8. Its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 0.40 is also below the sector average of 1.9, suggesting potential undervaluation on a revenue basis. The company boasts a healthy return on equity of 15.84% and a profit margin of 2.81%. However, the company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.61, which is in line with the sector median, indicating a comparable level of leverage. While revenue growth of 6% is respectable, it slightly trails the sector average of 7.2%. The forward revenue growth estimate for the next year is projected at 3.00%, indicating a slowdown in expansion compared to current levels. The current analyst consensus leans towards 'Hold', with a median price target of $210.00, implying limited upside from the current price.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Penske Automotive Group Inc. reported mixed recent earnings results. In the quarter to June 2026, the company beat EPS estimates by 6.78% with actual EPS of $3.62 versus an estimate of $3.39, though the stock reacted negatively with a -1.27% price change. Prior to that, the quarter to March 2026 saw an EPS beat of 18.18% ($0.13 actual vs $0.11 estimate), but again, the stock declined by -0.32%. The company has shown a pattern of beating estimates but experiencing price declines, suggesting that market expectations or other factors are weighing on the stock post-earnings. Forward earnings estimates show modest growth, with current year EPS projected at $13.31 and next year at $14.12. Revenue growth is estimated at 7.00% for the current year, slowing to 3.00% for the next year.
Key Risks
The primary risks for Penske Automotive Group Inc. include moderate insider selling, with over $20.7 million in sales reported by insiders against no purchases, signaling a potential lack of confidence. Also, the analyst consensus is predominantly 'Hold', with only two out of ten analysts recommending a buy, indicating a cautious Wall Street outlook. The stock's current technical position below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages also suggests short-term headwinds.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 26.70 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.65 |
| SMA 50 | 213.08 |
| SMA 200 | 179.34 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($213.08) above the 200-day SMA ($179.34), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 26.7 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.43
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.33
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with PAG? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
PAG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$194.20
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$196.16
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$187.79
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (26.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$200.02
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$203.91
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$209.73
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PAG is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PAG in October 2016 would be worth about $42,523 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PAG today could grow to about $28,760 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $122,049 and a bear case around $6,777. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PAG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $299 for PAG by 2030 in the base case, from $196 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $120. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PAG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $138 | $218 | $344 |
| 2028 | $127 | $242 | $462 |
| 2029 | $122 | $269 | $594 |
| 2030 | $120 | $299 | $747 |
| 2031 | $120 | $333 | $924 |
| 2032 | $121 | $370 | $1,133 |
| 2033 | $123 | $411 | $1,377 |
| 2034 | $125 | $457 | $1,664 |
| 2035 | $129 | $508 | $2,000 |
| 2036 | $133 | $564 | $2,394 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PAG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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PAG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$20.7M
12 Transactions
Insiders
11
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2018 | MITSUI & CO LTD
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.1M | $50.0M |
| Oct 20, 2017 | MITSUI & CO LTD
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.1M | $50.0M |
| Jun 3, 2025 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 97.5K | $15.7M |
| Jun 1, 2022 | PENSKE ROGER S JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 49.0K | $5.7M |
| Jun 1, 2015 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.9K | $3.6M |
| Aug 16, 2021 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $2.2M |
| Sep 1, 2023 | KURNICK ROBERT H JR
President
|
Sell | 11.0K | $1.8M |
| Jun 2, 2025 | KURNICK ROBERT H JR
President
|
Sell | 11.4K | $1.8M |
| Jun 3, 2021 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 20.8K | $1.8M |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DENKER CLAUDE H III
Officer
|
Sell | 8.7K | $1.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Penske Automotive Group Inc. stock a buy right now?
Penske Automotive Group Inc. stock is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $210.00, suggesting limited upside from the current price of $196.16. insiders are net buyers, and the stock is trading below key short-term moving averages, indicating caution is warranted.
What is PAG stock's fair value and upside potential?
The calculated fair value for Penske Automotive Group Inc. is $210.00, offering an upside potential of 7.1% based on the current price of $196.16. This aligns with the median analyst price target.
How are Penske Automotive Group Inc.'s recent earnings?
Penske Automotive Group Inc. has recently beaten EPS estimates in its last two reported quarters, including a 6.78% beat in the quarter to June 2026. However, the stock experienced price declines following these earnings announcements, suggesting other market factors are influencing performance.
What is the outlook for Penske Automotive Group Inc. revenue growth?
Revenue growth for Penske Automotive Group Inc. is projected at 7.00% for the current year, with an estimated slowdown to 3.00% for the next year. This growth rate is slightly below the current sector average of 7.2%.
What are the main risks facing Penske Automotive Group Inc.?
Key risks include significant insider buying totaling over $20.7 million, a predominantly 'Hold' analyst consensus, and the stock trading below its short-term moving averages. These factors suggest potential headwinds for the stock.
How does Penske Automotive Group Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Penske Automotive Group Inc. trades at a lower P/E ratio (13.90) and P/S ratio (0.40) compared to sector medians (20.8 and 1.9, respectively). However, its revenue growth (6%) is slightly below the sector average (7.2%), and its debt-to-equity ratio (1.61) is in line with the sector.
What is PAG stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case forecast for PAG stock in 2030 is $299.31, with a downside projection of $119.98 and an upside projection of $746.7. These figures represent statistical outcomes and not guaranteed price targets.