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As of September 10, 2026, Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) trades at $216.61. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $210.00, 3.1% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $210.00 across 10 analysts. RSI at 50 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $210.31.
Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG)
Penske Automotive Group Inc. NYSE
$216.61
-1.700 (-0.78%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
58 / 100
Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) is currently trading at $216.65, slightly above its median analyst target price of $210. The stock's technicals show it is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($210.31 and $174.91), but below its 20-day EMA, indicating mixed short-term momentum. The consensus among 10 Wall Street analysts is predominantly 'Hold', with a Wall Street score of 58 out of 100. Recent analyst rating changes show a trend towards downgrades, with several firms moving to 'Equal-Weight' or 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' or 'Buy' ratings. Fundamental analysis is challenging due to the 'N/A' for P/E ratio and EPS. However, revenue growth is projected at approximately 7.00% for the current quarter and year, with a slowdown to 2.00% expected next year. The company's insider activity shows a 'Moderate Sell Signal', with total insider sales amounting to $20.9 million versus no reported purchases, suggesting a degree of caution from management.
PAG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$218.20
Day Range
$216.09 to $218.20
Prev Close
$218.31
Volume
325.9K
52-Week Range
$140.12 to $227.00
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs RCD
Sector Position Analysis
PAG Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, PAG beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
PAG Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-3.05% Downside
Median of 10 analysts (12-month)
$210.00
AI Technical Analysis
Penske Automotive Group Inc. is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($210.31 and $174.91), indicating a generally positive longer-term trend. However, the price is below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average, suggesting some near-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50.3, which is in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold. Volume has been significantly below average recently, which could imply a lack of conviction behind current price movements. Key support levels are indicated by the 50-day SMA around $210.31 and the 200-day SMA around $174.91. Resistance may be found near recent highs. The mixed signals from moving averages and neutral RSI suggest a period of consolidation or indecision.
ProTips
- Given the 'Moderate Sell Signal' from insider transactions, investors should closely monitor any further selling activity and consider the implications for management's confidence in future performance.
- The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($210.31 and $174.91), suggesting a generally positive long-term trend, but the price is below its 20-day EMA, indicating potential short-term headwinds.
- With a predominantly 'Hold' rating from Wall Street and a median price target below the current stock price, consider waiting for a more compelling entry point or clearer positive catalysts before initiating a new position.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Insider Selling Exceeds $20 Million
Insiders have sold approximately $20.9 million worth of PAG stock, with no significant purchases reported, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' and potential caution from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Analyst Downgrades Trend
Several recent analyst rating changes show a trend towards downgrades, with firms moving to 'Equal-Weight' or 'Neutral' from higher ratings, suggesting a reassessment of the stock's upside potential.
Source: Wall Street Analyst RatingsNeutral
Mixed Earnings Performance
PAG has demonstrated mixed earnings results, with a recent EPS beat on July 29, 2026, followed by a price decline, and a significant EPS miss on July 9, 2026. This inconsistency may lead to increased stock volatility.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Projected Revenue Growth Above Sector Average
Penske Automotive Group Inc. is projected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 7.00% for the current year, which is above the sector average of 5.00%, indicating potential for top-line expansion.
Source: Revenue EstimatesMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) over the next 6-12 months suggests a neutral to slightly cautious outlook, given the current trading price is above the median analyst target price and the prevailing 'Hold' consensus. While the stock is trading above key long-term moving averages, the below-average volume and recent analyst downgrades point to a lack of strong upward momentum. Potential catalysts for upside could include stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings or positive developments in the automotive retail sector. Conversely, a significant economic downturn impacting vehicle sales, increased competition, or continued insider selling could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing the support around the 50-day SMA of $210.31.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | N/A |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A |
| EPS (TTM) | N/A |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| 52 Week High | 227.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 140.12 |
(PAG), making a direct comparison to sector averages difficult. However, projected revenue growth for the current year stands at 7.00%, which is slightly above the sector average of 5.00%. This indicates a moderate expansion in the company's top line. Given the lack of detailed financial health data, a comprehensive assessment of profit margins and balance sheet strength is not possible. The 'N/A' for key valuation metrics suggests that investors should exercise caution and seek further information regarding the company's profitability and financial stability before making investment decisions. The analyst revenue estimates for next year show a significant deceleration to 2.00% growth, which warrants close monitoring.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) has shown mixed earnings performance in recent quarters. The latest reported quarter on July 29, 2026, showed an EPS of $3.62, beating the estimate of $3.39 by 6.78%, though the stock price declined by 1.27%. Prior to that, an EPS miss of 150% was recorded on July 9, 2026, with an actual EPS of -$0.02 against an estimate of $0.04, accompanied by a 1.45% price increase. The company has a history of both beating and missing estimates, indicating some volatility in its earnings trajectory.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) is the current analyst sentiment, which leans heavily towards 'Hold' with recent downgrades from several firms, suggesting a lack of strong conviction in near-term upside. Also, insider activity indicates a 'Moderate Sell Signal', with significant sales by insiders totaling $20.9 million against no reported purchases, signaling potential caution from management. The projected slowdown in revenue growth to 2.00% for next year also poses a risk to future expansion.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 50.30 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 1.87 |
| SMA 50 | 210.31 |
| SMA 200 | 174.91 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($210.31) above the 200-day SMA ($174.91), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.43
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.33
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
PAG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$214.44
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$216.61
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$208.01
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (50.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$220.88
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$225.17
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$231.60
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PAG is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PAG in September 2016 would be worth about $45,171 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PAG today could grow to about $29,520 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $125,490 and a bear case around $6,944. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PAG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $334 for PAG by 2030 in the base case, from $217 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $134. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PAG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $153 | $241 | $381 |
| 2028 | $141 | $269 | $514 |
| 2029 | $136 | $300 | $662 |
| 2030 | $134 | $334 | $834 |
| 2031 | $134 | $372 | $1,035 |
| 2032 | $135 | $415 | $1,272 |
| 2033 | $138 | $462 | $1,551 |
| 2034 | $141 | $515 | $1,879 |
| 2035 | $145 | $574 | $2,265 |
| 2036 | $150 | $639 | $2,718 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PAG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
PAG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$20.9M
13 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.6M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2018 | MITSUI & CO LTD
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.1M | $50.0M |
| Oct 20, 2017 | MITSUI & CO LTD
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.1M | $50.0M |
| Jun 3, 2025 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 97.5K | $15.7M |
| Jun 1, 2022 | PENSKE ROGER S JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 49.0K | $5.7M |
| Jun 1, 2015 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.9K | $3.6M |
| Aug 16, 2021 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $2.2M |
| Sep 1, 2023 | KURNICK ROBERT H JR
President
|
Sell | 11.0K | $1.8M |
| Jun 2, 2025 | KURNICK ROBERT H JR
President
|
Sell | 11.4K | $1.8M |
| Jun 3, 2021 | PENSKE ROGER S
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 20.8K | $1.8M |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DENKER CLAUDE H III
Officer
|
Sell | 8.7K | $1.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Penske Automotive Group Inc.'s stock forecast for 2030?
Penske Automotive Group Inc.'s stock forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case price of $334.04, with a downside price of $133.75 and an upside price of $834.26. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guarantees.
Is Penske Automotive Group Inc. a buy right now?
Penske Automotive Group Inc. is currently trading at $216.65, which is above its median analyst target price of $210. With a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street and insider selling activity, it is not currently recommended as a strong buy.
What is the current analyst consensus for PAG stock?
The current Wall Street consensus for Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) is predominantly 'Hold', with 8 out of 10 analysts rating it as such. There is one 'Strong Buy' and one 'Buy' rating, with no 'Sell' or 'Strong Sell' ratings.
How does PAG's revenue growth compare to its sector?
Penske Automotive Group Inc. is projected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 7.00% for the current year, which is above the sector average of 5.00%. However, growth is expected to decelerate significantly to 2.00% for next year.
What are the key risks facing Penske Automotive Group Inc.?
Key risks include the predominantly 'Hold' analyst consensus with recent downgrades, significant insider buying totaling $20.9 million, and a projected slowdown in revenue growth to 2.00% for the upcoming year.
What is the RSI status for Penske Automotive Group Inc. stock?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Penske Automotive Group Inc. is currently 50.3, which is considered neutral, indicating neither an overbought nor oversold condition.
Are there any recent earnings surprises for PAG?
Yes, on July 29, 2026, Penske Automotive Group Inc. reported an EPS of $3.62, beating the estimate of $3.39 by 6.78%. However, the stock price declined following this announcement.