Stock·NYSE·Consumer Cyclical
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
- Market cap
- $231.51B
- P/E
- 8.65
- Dividend yield
- 3.08%
- Street target
- $233.50median of 4 analysts
- 52-week range
- $166.10 $248.90
TM stock forecast today
Where TM stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
TM at a glance
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM): Buy, 67/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 50-day but below its 200-day moving average ($191.75 and $199.21).
- Earnings TM beat estimates in 1 of its last 3 quarters, yet fell the next day after every one of them.
- Valuation P/E of 8.6 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a discount to peers (-58%).
Figures as of October 27, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Buy, with a model score of 67/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 4 of 4 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 18.8% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 1.33% below its 200-day average, and the 50-day average is 3.74% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $191.75 and the 200-day at $199.21. Over the past year the price fell 6.05%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from TM's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
TM stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
1/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $196.56 is 2.5% above the 50-day simple moving average of $191.75.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 1.3% below the 200-day simple moving average of $199.21.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($191.75) is 3.7% below the 200-day average ($199.21), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 37% of its 52-week range, between $166.10 and $248.90.
TM share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far TM has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where TM sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
TM fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
4/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 8.65 is 58.4% below the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.70 is 63.2% below the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $28.6B on revenue of $331.3B, a net margin of 8.6%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
TM beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 3 reports.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 3.08%, or $6.06 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for TM.
As of October 27, 2026, TM trades at $196.56, with a market value of $231.51B, a P/E ratio of 8.65 and a dividend yield of 3.08%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of TM's valuation, growth and risks.
TM's P/E of 8.65 is 58.4% below the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8, a gap the peer comparison on this page labels a discount to peers. On sales, the P/S of 0.70 sits 63.2% under the sector median of 1.9. To put the size in context, the company's market value is $231.5B, and its trailing earnings come to $22.76 per share.
Toyota Motor Corporation's revenue grew 10.40% year on year in the latest quarter, running 3.2 percentage points ahead of the 7.2% sector median for Consumer Cyclical. Its net margin stands at 8.63% and its operating margin at 7.86%. Return on equity is 12.40%, level with the sector median of 12.4%. Debt-to-equity is 1.15, and the trailing dividend yield is 3.08%, which works out to $6.06 a share a year.
TM's latest report, dated August 4, 2026, showed EPS of $7.66. Analysts had expected $3.94, so the company cleared the estimate by 94.42%. Despite the beat, the share price slipped 1.73% in the next session.
The earnings record shows 1 beat in 3 reports, yet the stock fell in the first session after that beat. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $18.33 this fiscal year (a decline of 2.8%) and $20.51 the year after (growth of 11.9%).
On a typical day the price of TM shifts by 1.19%, the 30-day standard deviation of its daily returns, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 0.38. The price is 21.03% below its 52-week high of $248.90.
TM against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How TM compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: TM trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-58%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs SPY: Since May 15, 2025, TM has gained 7.2% against a gain of 30.4% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
TM and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much TM sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 5.5% in FY2026 to ¥50.68T, from ¥48.04T a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 7.9% in FY2026, down from 10.0% the year before.
Profitable: TM earned ¥3.99T in FY2026.
Earnings reality check
Did TM beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: TM beat the analyst estimate in 1 of the last 3 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after that beat, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026after close | $3.94 | $7.66 | +94.42% | -1.73% | +0.34% |
| Nov 5, 2025after close | $5.36 | $4.66 | -13.06% | +1.90% | +4.09% |
| Aug 7, 2025after close | $5.48 | $4.38 | -20.07% | +3.94% | +6.06% |
As of October 27, 2026, TM has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 3 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after it; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 94.42% above the estimate and the stock moved -1.73% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
TM AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 59.4, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 59.4 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of TM
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) trades between its two moving averages. At $196.56, the stock sits 1.33% below its 200-day average of $199.21 but 2.51% above its 50-day average of $191.75. The shorter average is still under the longer one, with the 50-day 3.74% below the 200-day, so the averages have not yet caught up with the recent rise. Within its 52-week range, running from $166.10 to $248.90, the price stands at 37%.
Recent gains sit against a weaker longer record: the price rose 3.27% over the past month, rose 5.51% over the past three months and fell 6.05% over the past year. The price fell 0.55% in the last session on volume 38.7% below its average. On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 59.4, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line positive.
Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›
The August 4, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 94.42%, and the share price fell 1.73% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, August 4, 2026
- Two levels deserve attention. The 200-day SMA at $199.21 is the first hurdle above the price, while the 20-day EMA at $192.55 is the first support below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 59.4, in the neutral zone, with the MACD line positive; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- Following the August 4, 2026 report, the share price dropped 1.73% in the first session. Over the last 3 reports, TM beat estimates only once.
The trend is mixed: TM is above its 50-day average at $191.75 but below its 200-day average at $199.21. A close above the 200-day would turn both signals up, and a close below the 50-day would turn both down. In the meantime the price sits between the 20-day EMA ($192.55) underneath and the 200-day SMA ($199.21) overhead.
TM's 14-day RSI reads 59.4, which places the stock in the neutral zone between 40 and 60.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for TM, from its daily closes.
As of October 27, 2026, with TM at $196.56, its 14-day RSI is 59.4 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $191.75 and its 200-day is $199.21.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 27, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What TM moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 27, 2026, TM's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.49 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.40 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.24 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.13 with gold (XAU).
TM price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
4 of 4 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $233.50 is 18.8% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
4 of 4 rate it a buy now, against 4 of 4 three months ago.
TM Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $196.56, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
As of October 27, 2026, 4 Wall Street analysts cover TM: 4 rate it a buy or strong buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $230.00 to $239.31. The median TM price target is $233.50, 18.8% above the price of $196.56.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
TM trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
TM trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from TM's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much TM tends to move, against the market and on its own.
TM price history and drawdowns
TM's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.19% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 35.4%, from January 2022 to September 2022, regained by January 2024.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
65% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $21,609, against $42,376 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
TM Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 27, 2026, TM's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -35.4% (January 2022 to September 2022); it regained that peak by January 2024, 16 months after the low, and 65% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into TM in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: TM trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $21,609 against $42,376.
A $10,000 investment in TM in October 2016 would be worth about $21,609 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,376 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to TM, and which have not.
Strongest month, July: an average of +4.18%, up in 9 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -1.65%, up in 4 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -0.14%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, TM's strongest calendar month has been July (average +4.18%, up in 9 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -1.65%, up in 4 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
TM stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in TM, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in TM today could grow to about $12,601 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $23,121 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $6,868. The simulation models price only; at today's 3.08% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TM Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $248 for TM by 2030 in the base case, from $197 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $135. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $154 | $208 | $282 | |
| 2028 | $144 | $221 | $339 | |
| 2029 | $138 | $234 | $395 | |
| 2030 | $135 | $248 | $454 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of TM's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
TM insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
TM insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Insider trading: No insider bought TM shares on the open market in the last 18 months.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Shigeki Tomoyama
Officer
|
Grant | 17 | $3.6K |
Source: TwelveData, from reported insider filings
TM stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 27, 2026.