Stock·NYSE·Consumer Cyclical
Toyota Motor Corporation Sponsored (TM)
- Market cap
- $226.07B
- P/E
- 8.44
- Dividend yield
- 3.12%
- Street target
- $233.50median of 4 analysts
- 52-week range
- $166.10 $248.90
The short version
Where TM stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
TM at a glance
Toyota Motor Corporation Sponsored (TM): Buy, 75/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 50-day but below its 200-day moving average ($190.76 and $199.91).
- Earnings TM beat estimates in 1 of its last 3 quarters, yet fell the next day after every one of them.
- Valuation P/E of 8.4 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a discount to peers (-59%).
Figures as of October 16, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is currently trading at $193.95, below its 200-day simple moving average of $199.91 but above its 50-day SMA of $190.76.
The company recently reported strong earnings, with EPS of $7.66 significantly beating an estimate of $3.94 in its latest quarter, though this did not prevent a 1.73% price drop. Despite recent analyst downgrades from Hold to Hold and Equal-Weight, the overall Wall Street consensus remains a Strong Buy with a median price target of $233.5, implying a 20.4% upside. The company's fundamentals appear solid, with a profit margin of 8.63% and a return on equity of 12.40%, aligning with the sector median ROE. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.69 is well below the sector average of 1.9, suggesting potential undervaluation. However, its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15 is slightly above the sector average, warranting monitoring.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from TM's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
1/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $193.95 is 1.7% above the 50-day simple moving average of $190.76.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 3.0% below the 200-day simple moving average of $199.91.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($190.76) is 4.6% below the 200-day average ($199.91), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 34% of its 52-week range, between $166.10 and $248.90.
TM share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far TM has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where TM sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
4/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 8.44 is 59.4% below the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.69 is 63.7% below the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $28.3B on revenue of $327.9B, a net margin of 8.6%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
TM beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 3 reports.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 3.12%, or $6.06 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for TM.
As of October 16, 2026, TM trades at $193.95, with a market value of $226.07B, a P/E ratio of 8.44 and a dividend yield of 3.12%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of TM's valuation, growth and risks.
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) presents a compelling valuation, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.44, significantly lower than the sector average of 20.8.
Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.69 is also substantially below the sector average of 1.9, indicating that the market is valuing its revenue less than its peers. The company's profit margin stands at 8.63%, and its return on equity is 12.40%, which matches the sector median. While the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15 is slightly higher than the sector average, its strong profitability and revenue growth of 10.4% suggest it can manage this leverage. The forward revenue growth estimate for the next year is a modest 3.00%, but the current year's estimate shows a substantial 195.00% growth, which warrants further investigation into its drivers. The company's consistent earnings performance, despite recent estimate misses, supports its current valuation.
TM against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How TM compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: TM trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-59%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs VCR: Since May 6, 2025, TM has gained 0.8% against a gain of 14.7% for VCR.
Performance against VCR
TM and the Consumer Cyclical sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much TM sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Profitable: TM earned $3.99T in FY2026.
Earnings reality check
Did TM beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: TM beat the analyst estimate in 1 of the last 3 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 1 of those 1 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026after close | $3.94 | $7.66 | +94.42% | -1.73% | +0.34% |
| Nov 5, 2025after close | $5.36 | $4.66 | -13.06% | +1.90% | +4.09% |
| Aug 7, 2025after close | $5.48 | $4.38 | -20.07% | +3.94% | +6.06% |
As of October 16, 2026, TM has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 3 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after it; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 94.42% above the estimate and the stock moved -1.73% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
2/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 59.8, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 59.8 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of TM
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Toyota Motor Corporation is currently trading at $193.95, finding support near its 50-day simple moving average of $190.76 while facing resistance at its 200-day SMA of $199.91.
The 14-day RSI is at 59.78, indicating neutral momentum, and the MACD is slightly negative at -0.218. The chart structure indicates a consolidation phase, with the price oscillating between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Key support lies at the 50-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA presents a significant resistance level. Investors should watch for a decisive break above $200 to signal a potential trend reversal, while a fall below $190 could indicate further downside.
Strong EPS Beat in Latest Quarter ›
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) reported EPS of $7.66, significantly exceeding estimates of $3.94 by 94.42%, indicating strong operational performance.
Source: Company Earnings ReportUndervalued Valuation Metrics ›
TM's P/E ratio of 8.44 and P/S ratio of 0.69 are substantially lower than sector averages, suggesting potential for multiple expansion.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisPositive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target ›
A Strong Buy consensus from 4 analysts with a median price target of $233.5 implies a 20.4% upside potential.
Source: Wall Street Summary
Recent Analyst Downgrades ›
Despite overall positive sentiment, recent analyst rating changes include downgrades to 'Hold' from 'Buy' or 'Outperform', indicating some caution among analysts.
Source: Wall Street Analyst RatingsTrading Below 200-Day SMA ›
The current price of $193.95 is below the 200-day simple moving average of $199.91, indicating a potential short-to-medium term downtrend.
Source: Technical Analysis
- Monitor Toyota's ability to sustain its recent strong earnings performance and manage its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15 amidst competitive pressures.
- The stock is currently trading below its 200-day SMA, suggesting caution. A decisive move above $200 would be a bullish technical signal.
- Consider the dividend yield of approximately 3.12% for income-focused investors, but be aware of the potential for price volatility.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for TM, from its daily closes.
As of October 16, 2026, with TM at $193.95, its 14-day RSI is 59.8 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $190.76 and its 200-day is $199.91.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What TM moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 16, 2026, TM's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.50 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.41 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.25 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.14 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
4 of 4 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $233.50 is 20.4% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
4 of 4 rate it a buy now, against 4 of 4 three months ago.
TM Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $193.95, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
As of October 16, 2026, 4 Wall Street analysts cover TM: 4 rate it a buy or strong buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $230.00 to $239.31, with a median of $233.50, 20.4% above the price of $193.95.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
TM trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from TM's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much TM tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
TM's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.39% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 35.1%, from January 2022 to September 2022, regained by January 2024.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
67% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $20,988, against $42,525 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
TM Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 16, 2026, TM's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -35.1% (January 2022 to September 2022); it regained that peak by January 2024, 16 months after the low, and 67% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into TM in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: TM trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $20,988 against $42,525.
A $10,000 investment in TM in October 2016 would be worth about $20,988 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,525 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to TM, and which have not.
Strongest month, January: an average of +4.55%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -1.67%, up in 4 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -0.09%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, TM's strongest calendar month has been January (average +4.55%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -1.67%, up in 4 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in TM, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TM today could grow to about $17,588 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $45,887 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $6,741. The simulation models price only; at today's 3.12% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $243 for TM by 2030 in the base case, from $194 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $133. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $152 | $205 | $278 | |
| 2028 | $141 | $217 | $333 | |
| 2029 | $136 | $230 | $388 | |
| 2030 | $133 | $243 | $446 | |
| 2031 | $131 | $257 | $507 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of TM's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
TM insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Insider buying: No insider bought TM shares on the open market in the last 18 months. Sales are often planned in advance or cover tax on vesting shares, so they say less than purchases would.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Shigeki Tomoyama
Officer
|
Grant | 17 | $3.6K |
Source: TwelveData, from reported insider filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.