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As of September 11, 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) trades at $116.41. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $116.41, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $146.00 across 16 analysts. RSI at 26 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $127.64.
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)
PulteGroup, Inc. NYSE
$116.41
-2.520 (-2.12%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is currently trading at $116.41, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($127.64 and $125.29), signaling a bearish trend. The company has experienced negative revenue growth of -9.6% year-over-year for the current year, indicating a challenging market environment for homebuilders. Despite a consensus rating of 'Buy' from Wall Street analysts, the stock's technical indicators and insider activity suggest caution. Recent earnings reports show mixed results, with a slight miss in the most recent quarter and a larger miss in the quarter prior, although the company did beat estimates in January 2026. The current price action, coupled with moderate insider selling totaling $29.3 million, points towards potential headwinds. The stock's oversold RSI of 26.42 suggests a potential for a short-term bounce, but the broader trend remains negative.
PHM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$116.42
Day Range
$114.78 to $117.58
Prev Close
$118.93
Volume
2.18M
52-Week Range
$108.49 to $144.50
Market Cap
$22.17B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XHB
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (0.0372% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
PHM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, PHM beat estimates 1 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
PHM Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $127.64 and its 200-day SMA of $125.29, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.42, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term reversal or bounce. The MACD is also negative at -2.47, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price of $116.41, with resistance found at the 50-day SMA of $127.64. Volume has been above average recently, with 2,181,236 shares traded, which is 54% above the average volume, suggesting increased investor interest but currently in a downtrend. The overall technical picture points to significant downside risk from current levels.
ProTips
- Given the bearish technicals and negative revenue growth, consider implementing a tighter stop-loss strategy, potentially 1.5x the daily volatility of 7.9%, which would place it around $104.50.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($127.64 and $125.29), indicating a bearish trend. Monitor for any sustained break above the 50-day SMA ($127.64) as a potential early sign of trend reversal.
- Moderate insider selling totaling $29.3 million warrants attention. While not a definitive sell signal, it suggests management's current assessment of the company's prospects may be cautious.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Persistent Negative Revenue Growth
PulteGroup's current year revenue is projected to decline by 5.00%, following a recent -9.6% year-over-year decrease. This sustained top-line contraction poses a significant risk to future profitability and valuation.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Insiders have sold a total of $29.3 million in stock, with no reported purchases. This moderate insider selling indicates a lack of confidence from management and could signal further downside pressure.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Bearish Technical Indicators
The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($127.64) and 200-day SMA ($125.29), with an oversold RSI of 26.42. This suggests a strong bearish trend and potential for further price depreciation.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Oversold RSI Suggests Potential Bounce
The RSI reading of 26.42 indicates the stock is oversold, which could lead to a short-term technical bounce or reversal as buyers step in.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) faces a challenging outlook, with current price action below key moving averages and negative revenue growth suggesting potential for further downside. The median analyst price target of $146.00 implies an upside of 25.4% from the current price of $116.41, but this is tempered by the bearish technicals and moderate insider selling. The company's current year revenue is projected to decline by 5.00%, although a modest recovery is expected in the following year. The primary catalyst for a potential turnaround would be a significant improvement in the housing market, a reduction in interest rates, or a strong beat on upcoming earnings reports. Conversely, persistent negative revenue trends, rising interest rates, or increased competition could push the stock towards its lower support levels. The oversold RSI presents a short-term opportunity for a bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish without fundamental improvements.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 22.17B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.26 |
| EPS (TTM) | 9.79 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8590% |
| 52 Week High | 144.50 |
| 52 Week Low | 108.49 |
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) exhibits a P/E ratio of 12.26, which appears reasonable when compared to the sector average P/E of 12.26, suggesting fair valuation on this metric. However, the company's revenue growth has turned negative, declining by 9.6% year-over-year for the current year, which contrasts with the sector average revenue growth of 5.0%. This decline in top-line performance, coupled with an oversold technical condition, raises concerns about future earnings potential. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $9.79, and the market capitalization is $22.17 billion. While the P/E ratio is in line with sector averages, the negative revenue growth is a key concern. The stock is trading below its key moving averages, indicating that the market may be pricing in further challenges for the homebuilding sector.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) most recently reported an EPS of $1.21, slightly missing the estimate of $1.22 by 0.82% in July 2026, with the stock price reacting positively with a 2% gain. Prior to that, in April 2026, the company missed estimates by 1.1% with an EPS of $1.79 against an estimate of $1.81, leading to a 2.36% price decline. The company did, however, beat estimates by a significant 16.15% in January 2026, reporting an EPS of $1.87 versus an estimate of $1.61, though the stock saw a minor dip of 0.07%. Overall, the earnings trend shows inconsistency with recent performance indicating a slight downturn.
Key Risks
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) faces significant risks stemming from its negative revenue growth of -9.6% year-over-year for the current year, which is a stark contrast to the sector average of 5.0%. Also, the stock is trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling bearish momentum and potential for further price declines. Moderate insider selling, with $29.3 million in total sales, also indicates a lack of confidence from management in the near-term outlook.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 26.42 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -2.47 |
| SMA 50 | 127.64 |
| SMA 200 | 125.29 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($127.64) above the 200-day SMA ($125.29), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 26.4 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
PHM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$118.74
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$116.41
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$123.51
MAX LOSS
-4.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (26.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$112.80
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$106.86
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$100.93
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PHM is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PHM in September 2016 would be worth about $57,600 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PHM today could grow to about $32,566 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $144,293 and a bear case around $7,350. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PHM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $187 for PHM by 2030 in the base case, from $116 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $72.82. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PHM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $81.82 | $131 | $210 |
| 2028 | $75.76 | $147 | $287 |
| 2029 | $73.41 | $166 | $375 |
| 2030 | $72.82 | $187 | $479 |
| 2031 | $73.32 | $210 | $602 |
| 2032 | $74.63 | $236 | $749 |
| 2033 | $76.57 | $266 | $924 |
| 2034 | $79.06 | $299 | $1,134 |
| 2035 | $82.07 | $337 | $1,383 |
| 2036 | $85.56 | $379 | $1,680 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PHM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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PHM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$29.3M
10 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.9M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | MARSHALL RYAN R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 111.3K | $14.9M |
| Aug 23, 2024 | O SHAUGHNESSY ROBERT T
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 71.0K | $9.6M |
| Apr 28, 2023 | O SHAUGHNESSY ROBERT T
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 115.1K | $7.7M |
| Jan 26, 2017 | DUGAS RICHARD J JR
Director
|
Sell | 341.2K | $7.1M |
| Apr 27, 2023 | MARSHALL RYAN R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 98.0K | $6.4M |
| Jul 25, 2016 | DUGAS RICHARD J JR
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 243.1K | $5.3M |
| Feb 5, 2026 | FOLLIARD THOMAS J
Director
|
Sell | 37.0K | $5.0M |
| Oct 27, 2017 | ELLINGHAUSEN JAMES R
Officer
|
Sell | 136.9K | $4.1M |
| Aug 5, 2020 | O SHAUGHNESSY ROBERT T
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 90.5K | $4.0M |
| Apr 17, 2017 | DUGAS RICHARD J JR
Director
|
Sell | 162.0K | $3.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is PulteGroup's stock price forecast for 2030?
PulteGroup's long-range projection for 2030 estimates a base price of $186.68, with a downside scenario of $72.82 and an upside scenario of $478.59. These figures are derived from Monte Carlo simulations and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is PulteGroup stock a buy right now?
Currently, PulteGroup (PHM) is rated a 'Sell' with a consensus score of 20, trading below key moving averages and exhibiting negative revenue growth. While Wall Street has a 'Buy' consensus, the technicals and insider selling suggest a bearish outlook.
What are the biggest risks for PulteGroup?
The primary risks for PulteGroup include negative revenue growth, bearish technical indicators with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($127.64 and $125.29), and moderate insider selling totaling $29.3 million, suggesting potential headwinds in the housing market.
How does PulteGroup's valuation compare to its sector?
PulteGroup's P/E ratio of 12.26 is in line with the sector average of 12.26. However, its revenue growth is negative at -9.6%, contrasting with the sector average of 5.0%, indicating potential fundamental weakness despite a seemingly fair P/E ratio.
What is the RSI status for PulteGroup?
PulteGroup's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently 26.42, which is considered 'Oversold'. This suggests that the stock may be due for a short-term bounce, but it does not negate the broader bearish trend indicated by other technical indicators.
What is the recent earnings trend for PulteGroup?
PulteGroup has shown an inconsistent earnings trend, recently missing estimates slightly in July 2026 and April 2026, although it achieved a significant beat in January 2026. This mixed performance suggests variability in its ability to meet analyst expectations.
What is the outlook for PulteGroup's revenue growth?
Revenue estimates indicate a continued decline for the current quarter and year, with a -5.00% growth rate projected for both. A slight recovery is anticipated for the next quarter and next year, with projected growth rates of +5.00% and +4.00% respectively.