PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)

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Last updated: October 15, 2026 • Price at analysis: $112.74

CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData

Analysis reviewed by Anthony Beachey, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is currently trading at $112.74, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($121.74 and $124.33). The company's recent earnings reports have shown slight misses on EPS estimates, contributing to a neutral 14-day RSI of 41.78. Despite a recent revenue contraction of -9.6% year-over-year, the company maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19 and a profit margin of 11.62%. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $145.00, implying an upside of 28.6%. However, insider activity shows a moderate sell signal, with total sales of $29.3 million versus no reported purchases. The residential construction sector faces cyclical headwinds, and PulteGroup's recent performance reflects this. While long-term growth estimates remain positive at 12.1% annually over the next five years, the current price action and insider selling warrant a cautious approach. The company's dividend yield is 0.92%, with a rate of $1.04. The current valuation, with a P/E ratio of 11.39, appears attractive compared to the sector average P/E of 20.80, but this must be weighed against the recent revenue decline and insider selling.

PHM at a glance

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM): Hold, 55/100 on CleaRank's AI score.

Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($121.74 and $124.33).
Earnings PHM beat estimates in 5 of its last 7 quarters, yet fell the next day after 4 of those beats.
Insiders Insiders sold $29.3M and made no open-market purchases over the last 18 months.
Valuation P/E of 11.4 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a discount to peers (-45%).

As of October 15, 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) trades at $112.74. Wall Street's consensus target is $145.00 across 17 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 42, in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $121.74.

Figures as of October 15, 2026.

Only on CleaRank

Figures we compute ourselves from PHM's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.

Earnings reaction

Beat 5 of 7

fell next day 4 times

Insiders, 18 months

Net sold $29.3M

10 sales, 0 purchases

Seasonality

Nov +8.2% · Mar -3.5%

average best and worst month; Nov rose in 10 of 10 years

Moves with

SPY +0.37 · BTC +0.03 · Gold +0.12

1-year correlation of daily returns

Worst fall, 10 years

-58.0%

recovered in 5 months

Analyst targets

$100.00 to $166.00

median $145.00; 10 of 17 say buy

2030 simulation

$165.39 base

10th-90th percentile $64.46 to $424.31

PHM Price Analysis

Market Metrics

Open

$112.61

Day Range

$111.53 to $113.93

Prev Close

$109.35

Volume

68.5K

52-Week Range

$107.16 to $144.50

Market Cap

$20.83B

Peer Benchmarking

Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)

Performance vs XHB

Sector Position Analysis

Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-45%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.

PHM Financial Performance

Revenue vs. Earnings

Annual

Quarterly

Earnings Reality Check

In the last 7 quarters, PHM beat the analyst estimate 5 times; the stock fell in the first session after 4 of those beats.

PHM earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report	EPS estimate	EPS actual	Surprise	First session	5 sessions
Jul 21, 2026 (after close)	$1.22	$1.21	-0.82%	+2.00%	+8.44%
Apr 23, 2026 (after close)	$1.81	$1.79	-1.10%	-2.36%	-6.34%
Oct 21, 2025 (after close)	$2.90	$2.96	+2.07%	-2.48%	-2.05%
Jul 22, 2025 (after close)	$2.97	$3.03	+2.02%	-1.56%	-3.39%
Apr 22, 2025 (after close)	$2.42	$2.57	+6.20%	+0.17%	+0.84%
Jan 30, 2025 (after close)	$3.27	$4.43	+35.47%	-3.99%	-7.17%
Oct 22, 2024 (after close)	$3.13	$3.35	+7.03%	-0.49%	-3.16%

The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.

As of October 15, 2026, PHM has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 5 of its last 7 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 4 of those beats; its latest report, on July 21, 2026, came in 0.82% below the estimate and the stock moved +2.00% in the first session.

PHM Analysis

Company's Health 3/5

12-Month Analyst Target +28.61% above price

Median of 17 analysts (12-month)

$145.00

AI Analyst Consensus Score Hold

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $121.74 and its 200-day SMA of $124.33, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The 14-day RSI is at 41.78, signaling neutral momentum, while the MACD is negative at -2.90, suggesting downward pressure. The nearest resistance is observed at the 50-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA. The current price of $112.74 is testing recent lows. The chart structure indicates a potential for further downside if key moving averages continue to act as resistance. Investors should monitor the price action around the current levels for signs of a potential reversal or continuation of the downtrend.

ProTips

Given the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($121.74 and $124.33), consider waiting for a confirmed technical breakout above resistance levels before initiating new positions.

Key Catalysts

Bullish Positive Shift in Housing Market Sentiment

A sustained improvement in consumer confidence and a decrease in mortgage rates could significantly boost demand for new homes, driving revenue and earnings growth for PulteGroup.

Source: Macroeconomic Trends

Bearish Continued Revenue Contraction

If PulteGroup fails to reverse its recent -9.6% revenue growth trend, it could signal deeper issues within the residential construction market or company-specific challenges, negatively impacting investor sentiment.

Source: Company Financials

Bullish Return to EPS Beats

A consistent return to beating EPS estimates in upcoming earnings reports could signal operational improvements and a stronger financial position, potentially driving a positive stock price reaction.

Source: Company Earnings Reports

Market Outlook

The base case scenario for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) anticipates a period of consolidation around its current price levels, with potential upside towards the median analyst target of $145.00 over the next 6-12 months. The company's strong balance sheet and positive long-term growth estimates provide a foundation for recovery, especially if the housing market stabilizes and revenue trends turn positive. Factors that could alter this outlook include a significant improvement in the broader housing market, a reversal of the recent revenue contraction, or a change in insider sentiment.

Key Statistics

Market Cap	20.83B
P/E Ratio	11.39
EPS (TTM)	9.80
Dividend Yield	0.92%
52 Week High	144.50
52 Week Low	107.16

As of October 15, 2026, PHM trades at $112.74, with a market value of $20.83B, a P/E ratio of 11.39 and a dividend yield of 0.92%.

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) presents a mixed fundamental picture, trading at a P/E ratio of 11.39, which is significantly below the sector average of 20.80. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.30, also below the sector average of 1.90. The company boasts a strong return on equity of 14.90% and a healthy profit margin of 11.62%, outperforming the sector average ROE of 12.40%. The company has experienced a recent revenue contraction of -9.6%, contrasting with the sector's positive revenue growth of 7.20%. While forward-looking estimates suggest a return to growth, with next year's revenue growth projected at +4.00% and a 5-year average annual growth rate of 12.11%, the current revenue trend is a concern. The current P/E ratio, while low, may reflect market concerns about the recent revenue decline and the cyclical nature of the housing market.

Earnings & Growth Analysis

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) has recently reported earnings that have slightly missed analyst expectations. In the quarter reported July 21, 2026, EPS came in at $1.21 against an estimate of $1.22, a surprise of -0.82%, with the stock reacting positively with a 2% gain. The prior quarter also saw a slight miss with EPS of $1.79 versus an estimate of $1.81, resulting in a 2.36% price drop. Prior to these, the company had beaten estimates in the preceding two reported quarters. Overall, the recent earnings trend shows a pattern of minor misses after a period of beats, suggesting a potential shift in performance.

Key Risks

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) faces risks including a moderate sell signal from insider transactions, with $29.3 million in sales versus no reported purchases, indicating potential caution among management. The stock is currently trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish technical trend. Also, the company has experienced a recent revenue contraction of -9.6%, which could signal broader headwinds in the residential construction market.

Technical Indicators i

RSI (14-day)	41.78
MACD (12, 26)	-2.90
SMA (50-day)	121.74
SMA (200-day)	124.33

Technical Rating Bearish

RSI

Neutral

SMA Cross

Bearish

Price vs SMA

Bearish

MACD

Bearish

Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $121.74, 200-day: $124.33), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.

As of October 15, 2026, with PHM at $112.74, its 14-day RSI is 41.8 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $121.74 and its 200-day is $124.33.

Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).

Market Correlations

How this stock moves relative to other assets

Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.

S&P 500 (SPY) +0.37

Weak correlation

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +0.26

Weak correlation

Bitcoin (BTC) +0.03

Weak correlation

Gold (XAU) +0.12

Weak correlation

As of October 15, 2026, PHM's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.37 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.26 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.03 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.12 with gold (XAU).

Check Custom Correlation

How does any other asset move with PHM? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.

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PHM Wall Street View

12-month price targets

Low $100.00 Median $145.00 (+28.6%) High $166.00

Ratings

Buy 10 Hold 6 Sell 1 3 months ago: 8 of 15 buy

Recent rating actions

Recent analyst rating actions on PHM
Date	Firm	Action	Rating
Oct 6, 2026	Barclays	Maintains	Equal-Weight
Oct 1, 2026	Morgan Stanley	Initiates	Equal-Weight
Sep 25, 2026	Evercore ISI Group	Maintains	Outperform
Sep 16, 2026	Truist Securities	Maintains	Buy
Sep 11, 2026	Wells Fargo	Maintains	Overweight
Sep 4, 2026	StoneX	Initiates	Buy

As of October 15, 2026, 17 Wall Street analysts cover PHM: 10 rate it a buy or strong buy, 6 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $100.00 to $166.00, with a median of $145.00, 28.6% above the price of $112.74.

Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.

PHM Trade Plans

Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels

Select Your Trade Bias

Risk Tolerance

Conservative 2% Aggressive

Portfolio Value

Position Size: Enter portfolio size →

Entry Strategies pick an entry style

Conservative

$111.61

Slight discount to current

Wait for small dip

Aggressive

$112.74

At current price

Enter now if confident

Risk Management

STOP LOSS

$108.01

MAX LOSS

-3.2%

Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss

Calculated based on RSI (41.8) and current market volatility

Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

TARGET 1

$114.96

+3% (Conservative)

+2.0% (Aggressive)

TARGET 2

$117.19

+5% (Conservative)

+4.0% (Aggressive)

TARGET 3

$120.54

+8% (Conservative)

+6.9% (Aggressive)

Calculate Your Trade

Position Size Stop Loss Risk/Reward P&L Calculator Trailing Stop Fibonacci Pivot Points Win Rate Expectancy

These levels come from PHM's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.

Seasonal Patterns

Historical monthly performance trends

Jan

+7.42%

up 9 of 10 yrs

Feb

-1.82%

up 5 of 10 yrs

Mar

-3.50%

up 5 of 10 yrs

Apr

+3.51%

up 5 of 10 yrs

May

+2.37%

up 6 of 10 yrs

Jun

+3.14%

up 5 of 10 yrs

Jul

+7.43%

up 7 of 10 yrs

Aug

+1.61%

up 6 of 10 yrs

Sep

-1.90%

up 4 of 10 yrs

Oct

-0.80%

up 4 of 9 yrs

Nov

+8.18%

up 10 of 10 yrs

Dec

-0.38%

up 5 of 10 yrs

Over the last 10 years, PHM's strongest calendar month has been November (average +8.18%, up in 10 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -3.50%, up in 5 of 10 years).

Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.

Risk & Volatility i

Risk Level Moderate

Daily Volatility

1.69%

30-day std. deviation

52-Week Range

$107.16 5% from low $144.50

Growth of $10,000

A $10,000 investment in PHM in October 2016 would be worth about $63,138 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,405 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).

Compare with Another Ticker

PHM Drawdowns & Recovery

Worst fall, last 10 years

-58.0%

February 2020 to March 2020

Recovery

5 months

back at the old peak by August 2020

From the 10-year high

-24.4%

highest close, October 2024

1-year holds that gained

72%

of every 1-year window

As of October 15, 2026, PHM's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -58.0% (February 2020 to March 2020); it regained that peak by August 2020, 5 months after the low, and 72% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.

From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.

Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)

CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PHM today could grow to about $26,065 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $115,620 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $5,876. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.92% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.

PHM Stock Price Prediction: 2030

CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $165 for PHM by 2030 in the base case, from $113 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $64.46. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PHM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.

PHM simulated price paths by year
Year	10th percentile	Base case	90th percentile
2027	$77.46	$124	$199
2028	$70.14	$137	$266
2029	$66.46	$150	$340
2030	$64.46	$165	$424
2031	$63.48	$182	$522

Method: a lognormal simulation of PHM's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.

People Also Watch

PHM Insider Trading Analysis

Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings

▲ Bought

None

No open-market buys

▼ Sold

$29.3M

10 Transactions

● Insiders

Active Traders

$ Avg Transaction

$2.9M

Large trades

As of October 15, 2026, PHM insiders reported 10 open-market sales worth $29.3M and no open-market purchases over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.

Recent insider transactions in PHM
Date	Insider	Type	Shares	Value
Jul 30, 2026	BLAIR BRYCE Director	Grant	7.6K	-
May 27, 2026	KOART MATTHEW WILLIAM Chief Operating Officer	Sell	7.5K	$894.8K
May 8, 2026	SNYDER LILA Director	Sell	3.3K	$391.3K
Apr 29, 2026	ACTIS-GRANDE KRISTEN Director	Grant	1.5K	-
Apr 29, 2026	BLAIR BRYCE Director	Grant	1.5K	-
Apr 29, 2026	GANNON KRISTIN F Director	Grant	1.5K	-
Apr 29, 2026	GRISE CHERYL W Director	Grant	1.5K	-
Apr 29, 2026	HAWAUX ANDRE J Director	Grant	1.5K	-
Apr 29, 2026	SCHALL BENJAMIN Director	Grant	1.5K	-
Apr 29, 2026	SNYDER LILA Director	Grant	1.5K	-

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key risks for PulteGroup investors?

Key risks for PulteGroup (PHM) include moderate insider selling totaling $29.3 million, a bearish technical trend indicated by prices below moving averages, and a recent revenue contraction of -9.6%.

How does PulteGroup's valuation compare to its sector?

PulteGroup (PHM) trades at a P/E ratio of 11.39 and a P/S ratio of 1.30, both significantly lower than the sector averages of 20.80 and 1.90, respectively. This suggests a potentially attractive valuation, though it is tempered by recent revenue declines.

What is the long-term outlook for PulteGroup?

The long-term outlook for PulteGroup (PHM) is positive, with estimated annual growth of 12.11% over the next five years. However, current technicals and recent revenue trends suggest a period of consolidation before potential sustained upward momentum.

What is PulteGroup's recent earnings performance?

PulteGroup (PHM) has recently shown a pattern of slight EPS misses after a period of beats. The latest reported quarter saw an EPS of $1.21 versus an estimate of $1.22, with a minor negative price reaction.

Does PHM pay a dividend?

Yes. As of October 15, 2026, PHM's dividend yield is 0.92%, or about $1.04 per share a year at the current price of $112.74. Yields move with the share price and with changes to the payout.

Is PHM in an uptrend?

No. PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) trades at $112.74, below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($121.74 and $124.33). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 41.8, in neutral territory.

Are insiders buying or selling PHM?

Selling, on balance. In the last 18 months, PHM's officers, directors and large holders reported 10 sales worth $29.3M and no open-market purchases. Grants and option exercises are not counted as buying.

What is the analyst price target for PHM?

As of October 15, 2026, the 17 Wall Street analysts covering PHM have 12-month targets from $100.00 to $166.00, with a median of $145.00, 28.6% above the current price of $112.74. 10 rate it a buy or strong buy, 6 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 8 of 15 rated it a buy.

What is PHM's biggest drop in the last 10 years?

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -58.0%, from February 2020 to March 2020 (with dividends reinvested). It regained that peak by August 2020, 5 months after the low. Over the same period, 72% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.

What are PHM's best and worst months?

Over the last 10 years, November has been PHM's strongest month on average (+8.18%, rising in 10 of 10 years) and March its weakest (-3.50%, rising in 5 of 10 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.

Browse all Consumer Cyclical →

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PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

PHM at a glance

Only on CleaRank

PHM Price Analysis

Market Metrics

Peer Benchmarking

Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)

Performance vs XHB

Sector Position Analysis

PHM Financial Performance

Revenue vs. Earnings

Annual

Quarterly

Earnings Reality Check

PHM Analysis

Key Statistics

Earnings & Growth Analysis

Key Risks

Technical Indicators i

Market Correlations

PHM Wall Street View

12-month price targets

Ratings

Recent rating actions

PHM Trade Plans

Entry Strategies pick an entry style

Risk Management

Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

Growth of $10,000

Compare with Another Ticker

PHM Drawdowns & Recovery

Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)

PHM Stock Price Prediction: 2030

People Also Watch

PHM Insider Trading Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions

PHM at a glance

Only on CleaRank

PHM Price Analysis

Market Metrics

Peer Benchmarking

Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)

Performance vs XHB

Sector Position Analysis

PHM Financial Performance

Revenue vs. Earnings

Annual

Quarterly

Earnings Reality Check

PHM Analysis

Key Statistics

Earnings & Growth Analysis

Key Risks

Technical Indicators i

Market Correlations

PHM Wall Street View

12-month price targets

Ratings

Recent rating actions

PHM Trade Plans

Entry Strategies pick an entry style

Risk Management

Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)

Growth of $10,000

Compare with Another Ticker

PHM Drawdowns & Recovery

Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)

PHM Stock Price Prediction: 2030

People Also Watch

Popular Comparisons

PHM Insider Trading Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions