CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Roger Wohlner, Financial Journalist. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is currently trading at $12.975, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($15.39 and $15.90), indicating near-term weakness. However, the company's fundamentals are marked by significant revenue growth, projected at 38.00% for the current year and 57.00% for the next, with next quarter revenue expected to surge by 94.00%. This growth is occurring despite current net losses, reflected in a negative profit margin of -54.96% and a negative EPS of -2.58. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.33, which is above the sector median of 1.9, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its sales. The most compelling aspect of RIVN's current profile is the extreme insider accumulation, with $1 billion in total purchases versus only $11.8 million in sales, primarily driven by a massive $999.9 million investment from VOLKSWAGEN AG. This signals exceptional institutional conviction and provides a substantial support level for the stock. Despite the ongoing losses and below-average technical positioning, the sheer scale of insider buying suggests a strong belief in the company's long-term prospects and potential for a turnaround.
RIVN at a glance
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A (RIVN): Hold, 59/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($15.39 and $15.90).
EarningsRIVN beat estimates in 4 of its last 7 quarters, yet fell the next day after 3 of those beats.
InsidersInsiders sold $11.8M and bought $1.0B over the last 18 months.
As of October 15, 2026, Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A (RIVN) trades at $12.98. Wall Street's consensus target is $18.00 across 25 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 26, in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $15.39.
Figures as of October 15, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from RIVN's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, RIVN trades at 3.33x, +75% versus the sector average of 1.90x.
RIVN Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 7 quarters, RIVN beat the analyst estimate 4 times; the stock fell in the first session after 3 of those beats.
RIVN earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Jul 30, 2026 (after close)
-$0.78
-$0.63
+19.23%
-9.57%
-8.62%
Feb 12, 2026 (after close)
-$0.79
-$0.66
+16.46%
+26.64%
+9.07%
Nov 4, 2025 (after close)
-$0.86
-$0.96
-11.63%
+23.36%
+44.16%
Aug 5, 2025 (after close)
-$0.64
-$0.80
-25.00%
-4.20%
-1.48%
May 6, 2025 (after close)
-$0.92
-$0.48
+47.83%
-5.78%
+10.15%
Feb 20, 2025 (after close)
-$0.63
-$0.47
+25.40%
-4.70%
-14.77%
Nov 7, 2024 (after close)
-$0.90
-$0.99
-10.00%
+5.37%
+2.59%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 15, 2026, RIVN has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 4 of its last 7 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 3 of those beats; its latest report, on July 30, 2026, came in 19.23% above the estimate and the stock moved -9.57% in the first session.
RIVN Analysis
Company's Health2/5
12-Month Analyst Target+38.73% above price
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$18.00
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreHold
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is currently exhibiting bearish momentum, trading below its 50-day SMA of $15.39 and its 200-day SMA of $15.90. The 14-day RSI is at 25.72, indicating an oversold condition, which historically can precede a bounce but also signals persistent selling pressure. The stock's recent trading history shows a downward trend, with the price falling below key moving averages. Key support levels are being tested, and a sustained break below these could signal further downside, while a move back above the 50-day SMA would be the first indication of a potential trend reversal.
ProTips
The extreme insider accumulation, with over $1 billion in purchases led by Volkswagen AG, signals exceptional conviction and provides a strong potential floor for RIVN stock, warranting close monitoring for any signs of a technical reversal.
With RIVN trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($15.39 and $15.90) and exhibiting oversold RSI conditions, investors should watch for a sustained move back above these key technical levels as an early indicator of a potential trend shift.
Key Catalysts
BullishStrong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts project strong revenue growth of 38.00% for the current year and 57.00% for the next, with next quarter revenue expected to surge by 94.00%, indicating strong market demand for Rivian's vehicles.
Source: Wall Street Estimates
BullishPositive EPS Surprise Trend
Rivian has recently beaten analyst EPS estimates, such as the 19.23% surprise in the latest reported quarter, suggesting operational improvements or better-than-expected cost management.
Source: Earnings Reports
BearishContinued Net Losses and Negative Margins
Rivian continues to report substantial net losses, with a profit margin of -54.96% and negative EPS, posing a risk to its long-term financial sustainability if profitability is not achieved.
Source: Company Fundamentals
BearishValuation Above Sector Averages
Rivian's price-to-sales ratio of 3.33 is significantly higher than the sector median of 1.9, indicating that the stock may be overvalued relative to its current sales and faces pressure if growth expectations are not met.
Source: Company Fundamentals & Sector Averages
Market Outlook
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) faces a challenging near-term outlook, with the stock trading below key technical levels and continuing to incur significant losses. However, the company's aggressive revenue growth trajectory, projected at 38.00% for the current year and 57.00% for the next, combined with extreme insider buying led by Volkswagen AG's substantial investment, provides a strong foundation for a potential recovery. Upside catalysts could include successful scaling of production, improved cost efficiencies leading to profitability, and further strategic partnerships. Conversely, risks such as increased competition, production challenges, or a failure to achieve profitability targets could push the stock towards its downside scenario.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
18.75B
P/E Ratio
N/A (Negative EPS)
EPS (TTM)
-2.58
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52 Week High
22.69
52 Week Low
12.39
As of October 15, 2026, RIVN trades at $12.98, with a market value of $18.75B and no P/E ratio (its trailing earnings are negative).
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is currently loss-making, with a negative profit margin of -54.96% and a negative EPS of -2.58, which makes traditional P/E ratio analysis impossible. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.33 is considerably higher than the sector median of 1.9, indicating that investors are paying a premium for its sales. The company's return on equity is a significantly negative -57.52%, and its debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.04, which is in line with the sector average. Despite the current profitability challenges, RIVN is experiencing substantial revenue growth, with current year projections at 38.00% and next year at 57.00%. This growth is a key factor supporting the company's valuation, as investors anticipate future profitability. The company's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, which is manageable within the context of its growth phase, but the negative margins and ROE highlight the significant hurdles it faces in achieving sustainable profitability.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) has shown a pattern of beating analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters, though the magnitude of these beats has varied. Most recently, results reported July 30, 2026, showed an actual EPS of -0.63 against an estimate of -0.78, a 19.23% surprise, but the stock price declined 9.57%. Prior to that, results reported February 12, 2026, saw an EPS of -0.66 versus an estimate of -0.79, a 16.46% surprise, with a positive price reaction of 26.64%. The company's revenue growth remains strong, with next quarter's estimates showing a significant year-over-year increase of 94.00%.
Key Risks
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) faces significant risks including its ongoing substantial losses, reflected in a -54.96% profit margin and negative EPS, which could strain its financial resources. The company's valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.33 significantly above the sector median, suggests a high degree of future growth expectations are already priced in, creating vulnerability to any growth disappointments. Also, the stock is trading below key technical support levels, indicating potential for further price declines if momentum does not shift.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
25.72
MACD (12, 26)
-0.592
SMA (50-day)
15.39
SMA (200-day)
15.90
Technical RatingBearish
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $15.39, 200-day: $15.90), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 25.7 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
As of October 15, 2026, with RIVN at $12.98, its 14-day RSI is 25.7 (oversold territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $15.39 and its 200-day is $15.90.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 15, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.38
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.39
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.26
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.19
Weak correlation
As of October 15, 2026, RIVN's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.38 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.39 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.26 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.19 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with RIVN? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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RIVN Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Low $13.00Median $18.00 (+38.7%)High $25.00
The price, $12.98, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Buy 12Hold 8Sell 53 months ago: 13 of 26 buy
Recent rating actions
Recent analyst rating actions on RIVN
Date
Firm
Action
Rating
Sep 14, 2026
Citigroup
Initiates
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
RBC Capital
Maintains
Sector Perform
Jul 31, 2026
Morgan Stanley
Maintains
Underweight
Jul 31, 2026
TD Cowen
Maintains
Buy
Jul 31, 2026
Wells Fargo
Maintains
Equal-Weight
Jul 31, 2026
Needham
Reiterates
Buy
As of October 15, 2026, 25 Wall Street analysts cover RIVN: 12 rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 5 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $13.00 to $25.00, with a median of $18.00, 38.7% above the price of $12.98.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
RIVN Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$12.85
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$12.98
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$12.09
MAX LOSS
-5.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (25.7) and current market volatility
These levels come from RIVN's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in RIVN in November 2021 would be worth about $1,286 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $17,744 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Compare with Another Ticker
RIVN Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 5 years
-94.0%
November 2021 to April 2024
Recovery
Not yet
still 91.1% below the November 2021 peak
From the 5-year high
-91.1%
highest close, November 2021
1-year holds that gained
37%
of every 1-year window
As of October 15, 2026, RIVN's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 5 years with dividends reinvested was -94.0% (November 2021 to April 2024); it is still 91.1% below that peak, and 37% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in RIVN today could grow to about $3,250 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $24,659 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $428. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
RIVN Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $8.28 for RIVN by 2030 in the base case, from $12.98 today (0.6x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $2.30. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on RIVN's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
RIVN simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$6.11
$11.60
$22.01
2028
$4.19
$10.36
$25.65
2029
$3.05
$9.26
$28.10
2030
$2.30
$8.28
$29.82
2031
$1.77
$7.40
$31.00
Method: a lognormal simulation of RIVN's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
As of October 15, 2026, RIVN insiders reported 32 open-market sales worth $11.8M and 2 open-market purchases worth $1.0B over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in RIVN
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Sep 11, 2026
CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN
Officer
Sell
15.0K
$244.4K
Aug 20, 2026
MCDONOUGH CLAIRE
Chief Financial Officer
Sell
8.0K
$128.4K
Aug 18, 2026
MCDONOUGH CLAIRE
Chief Financial Officer
Sell
13.1K
$190.7K
Jul 20, 2026
GOMEZ AIDAN N.
Director
Grant
769
-
Jul 20, 2026
KRAFCIK JOHN
Director
Grant
1.2K
-
Jul 20, 2026
KRAWIEC PETER
Director
Grant
884
-
Jul 20, 2026
SCHWARTZ SANFORD HAROLD
Director
Grant
1.2K
-
Jul 6, 2026
BOONE KAREN
Director
Sell
20.0K
$400.0K
Jun 22, 2026
BOONE KAREN
Director
Grant
17.4K
-
Jun 22, 2026
FLATLEY JAY T
Director
Grant
17.4K
-
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the consensus rating for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)?
The consensus rating for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is Hold, with 25 analysts covering the stock.
How has Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) performed in recent earnings reports?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) has recently beaten analyst EPS estimates, such as the -0.63 actual EPS versus an estimate of -0.78 reported on July 30, 2026. Despite these beats, the stock experienced a price decline following the latest earnings release, indicating that market sentiment may be influenced by factors beyond immediate earnings performance.
What is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s (RIVN) revenue growth forecast?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with estimates indicating an 8.5% increase for the current year and a significant 20.4% increase for next year. Revenue for the next quarter is expected to surge by 94.00% year-over-year, reaching approximately $2.5 billion.
What does the insider trading activity suggest for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)?
Insider activity for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) shows extreme accumulation, with over $1 billion in purchases led by VOLKSWAGEN AG, far outweighing insider sales. This strong net buying trend is a rare conviction signal that provides significant support and suggests a positive long-term outlook from those closest to the company.
Is RIVN in an uptrend?
No. Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A (RIVN) trades at $12.98, below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($15.39 and $15.90). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 25.7, in oversold territory.
What is the analyst price target for RIVN?
As of October 15, 2026, the 25 Wall Street analysts covering RIVN have 12-month targets from $13.00 to $25.00, with a median of $18.00, 38.7% above the current price of $12.98. 12 rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 5 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 13 of 26 rated it a buy.
What is RIVN's biggest drop in the last 5 years?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A (RIVN)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 5 years was -94.0%, from November 2021 to April 2024 (with dividends reinvested). It has not regained that peak yet and is still 91.1% below it. Over the same period, 37% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
What are RIVN's best and worst months?
Over the last 5 years, July has been RIVN's strongest month on average (+18.15%, rising in 3 of 5 years) and January its weakest (-21.64%, rising in 0 of 5 years). Seasonal averages describe the past and do not predict a given year.
How closely does RIVN move with the stock market?
Over the past year RIVN's daily returns were weakly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) (+0.38). Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): +0.39; Bitcoin (BTC): +0.26; Gold (XAU): +0.19. A figure near +1 means the two usually move together; near 0 means little relationship.
What would $10,000 invested in RIVN be worth today?
$10,000 put into RIVN in November 2021 would be worth about $1,286 today with dividends reinvested, against about $17,744 for the same amount in the S&P 500 on the same basis.
