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As of September 26, 2026, Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) trades at $15.47. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $15.47, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $18.50 across 25 analysts. RSI at 46 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $15.97.
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN)
Rivian Automotive Inc. NASDAQ
$15.47
0.1800 (1.18%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) is currently trading at $15.47, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($15.97 and $16.24), indicating near-term bearish momentum. The company's valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.81, is higher than the sector median of 1.9, while its revenue growth of 27.2% outpaces the sector average of 7.2%. A significant catalyst is the extreme insider accumulation, with Volkswagen AG injecting nearly $1 billion into the company, signaling strong conviction. However, Rivian faces substantial headwinds from persistent operational losses, reflected in its negative profit and operating margins, and a below-sector return on equity of -57.52%. The company's ability to scale production profitably and manage its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04 will be critical for future performance.
RIVN Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$15.45
Day Range
$15.18 to $15.65
Prev Close
$15.29
Volume
16.67M
52-Week Range
$12.39 to $22.69
Market Cap
$22.40B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, RIVN trades at 3.81x, +100% versus the sector average of 1.90x.
RIVN Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, RIVN beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
RIVN Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+19.59% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$18.50
AI Technical Analysis
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($15.97 and $16.24), suggesting a bearish trend over the medium to long term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.78, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD is slightly negative, reinforcing the current lack of strong directional conviction. Volume has been below average recently, with a 28.9% decrease compared to the average, suggesting cautious market participation. Key support levels are not clearly defined due to the recent price action, but the current price of $15.47 is approaching the 52-week low, while resistance is seen around the $15.97 (50-day SMA) and $16.24 (200-day SMA) levels.
ProTips
- The extreme insider accumulation, led by Volkswagen AG's near $1 billion investment, suggests strong conviction in Rivian's long-term prospects, potentially acting as a floor for the stock price.
- Rivian's current price is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($15.97 and $16.24), indicating bearish momentum; consider waiting for a confirmed break above these levels before initiating new long positions.
- Given Rivian's current unprofitability, investors should closely monitor cash burn rates and future capital raises, as sustained losses could pressure the stock price despite strong revenue growth.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Extreme Insider Accumulation by Volkswagen AG
Volkswagen AG has invested nearly $1 billion in Rivian, representing extreme insider accumulation and a strong signal of conviction in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider Trading FilingsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Exceeding Sector Average
Rivian's reported revenue growth of 27.2% significantly surpasses the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 7.2%, indicating strong demand and market penetration.
Source: Company FinancialsBearish
Persistent Operational Losses
Rivian continues to report significant negative profit and operating margins, raising concerns about its path to profitability and long-term financial sustainability.
Source: Company FinancialsNeutral
Mixed Wall Street Analyst Ratings
While the overall consensus is 'Hold', the distribution of ratings shows a significant number of 'Buy' and 'Strong Buy' recommendations alongside 'Sell' ratings, indicating divided analyst sentiment.
Source: Analyst ReportsMarket Outlook
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) faces a challenging outlook as it navigates a path to profitability amidst strong revenue growth. The median analyst price target of $18.50 suggests an upside of 19.6% from the current price of $15.47, reflecting cautious optimism from Wall Street. The company's ability to execute on its production targets and achieve positive margins will be paramount. Significant insider buying, particularly from Volkswagen AG, provides a strong signal of underlying confidence, which could support the stock price. However, the current technical setup, with the price below key moving averages, indicates potential for near-term weakness.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 22.40B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -2.59 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 22.69 |
| 52 Week Low | 12.39 |
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) exhibits a mixed fundamental picture, with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.81 that is above the sector median of 1.9, indicating a premium valuation relative to its revenue. The company's revenue growth of 27.2% significantly exceeds the sector average of 7.2%, showcasing strong top-line expansion. However, profitability remains a significant concern, with a negative EPS of -2.59, a net profit margin of -54.96%, and an operating margin of -50.42%. The return on equity stands at a concerning -57.52%, well below the sector average of 12.4%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04 is in line with the sector average, but the persistent losses raise questions about long-term financial sustainability.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) recently reported a narrower-than-expected loss for the quarter ending June 2026, with an EPS of -0.63 against an estimate of -0.78, a positive surprise of 19.23%. Despite this beat, the stock experienced a 9.57% decline, suggesting market concerns extend beyond immediate earnings. The prior quarter also saw a beat, but the stock reacted negatively, indicating a pattern where earnings beats are not translating into sustained positive price action. Revenue for the June 2026 quarter grew by 26.00% year-over-year, reaching $1.96 billion, with expectations for continued strong revenue growth in the coming quarters.
Key Risks
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) faces significant risks including its persistent unprofitability, with substantial negative margins and EPS, which could strain its financial resources. The company's valuation, trading at a premium price-to-sales ratio compared to the sector, is vulnerable to any slowdown in its ambitious growth targets. Also, the stock's current trading price below key moving averages suggests potential for further downside pressure if market sentiment shifts or operational challenges re-emerge.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 45.78 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.23 |
| SMA 50 | 15.97 |
| SMA 200 | 16.24 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $15.97, 200-day: $16.24), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.38
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.40
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with RIVN? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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RIVN Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$15.32
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$15.47
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$14.60
MAX LOSS
-4.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (45.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$15.77
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$16.08
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$16.54
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for RIVN is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in RIVN in November 2021 would be worth about $1,536 today, compared with about $16,638 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in RIVN today could grow to about $2,517 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $19,095 and a bear case around $332. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
RIVN Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $8.91 for RIVN by 2030 in the base case, from $15.47 today (0.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $2.47. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on RIVN's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $7.10 | $13.48 | $25.58 |
| 2028 | $4.74 | $11.74 | $29.06 |
| 2029 | $3.37 | $10.23 | $31.03 |
| 2030 | $2.47 | $8.91 | $32.09 |
| 2031 | $1.85 | $7.76 | $32.52 |
| 2032 | $1.41 | $6.76 | $32.49 |
| 2033 | $1.08 | $5.89 | $32.09 |
| 2034 | $0.8376 | $5.13 | $31.43 |
| 2035 | $0.6537 | $4.47 | $30.56 |
| 2036 | $0.5132 | $3.89 | $29.54 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using RIVN's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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RIVN Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.0B
2 Transactions
Sold
$12.6M
33 Transactions
Insiders
12
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$28.9M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2022 | FORD MOTOR CO.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.0M | $214.4M |
| May 13, 2022 | FORD MOTOR CO.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 7.0M | $188.2M |
| Jul 12, 2024 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 200.0K | $3.6M |
| May 19, 2025 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 178.6K | $2.7M |
| Jul 22, 2024 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.4K | $1.2M |
| Jan 6, 2025 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.4K | $1.2M |
| Sep 12, 2024 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 83.3K | $1.1M |
| Jul 8, 2024 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.4K | $1.1M |
| Dec 23, 2024 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.4K | $991.3K |
| Dec 12, 2024 | SCARINGE ROBERT J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 71.4K | $975.2K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Rivian's stock price prediction for 2030?
Rivian's long-range projection for 2030 indicates a base case price of $8.91, with a downside scenario at $2.47 and an upside scenario at $32.09. These figures are derived from Monte Carlo simulations and do not represent guaranteed price targets.
Is Rivian Automotive Inc. a buy right now?
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) currently holds a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, supported by a consensus score of 59. While extreme insider buying signals strong conviction, the stock's current price is below key moving averages, and ongoing losses present significant risks.
What are the key risks for Rivian Automotive Inc.?
The primary risks for Rivian include its persistent unprofitability, a valuation that appears stretched relative to sector peers based on price-to-sales, and the potential for further price declines given its current technical positioning below key moving averages.
How does Rivian's revenue growth compare to its sector?
Rivian's revenue growth of 27.2% significantly outpaces the Consumer Cyclical sector average of 7.2%, indicating strong expansion in its top line.
What is the sentiment from Wall Street analysts regarding Rivian?
Wall Street analysts maintain a mixed 'Hold' consensus for Rivian, with 25 analysts providing ratings. While there are more 'Buy' and 'Strong Buy' ratings combined (12) than 'Sell' and 'Strong Sell' (5), the 'Hold' category is the largest with 8 ratings.
What is the significance of the insider buying in Rivian?
The insider activity in Rivian shows extreme accumulation, with Volkswagen AG leading purchases totaling nearly $1 billion. This represents a rare conviction signal from insiders, potentially providing significant downside support for the stock.
How are Rivian's profitability metrics compared to the sector?
Rivian's profitability metrics are significantly weaker than the sector averages. Its net profit margin is -54.96% and return on equity is -57.52%, compared to sector averages of N/A (negative EPS) and 12.4% respectively.