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As of September 10, 2026, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) trades at $367.81. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $367.81, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $410.00 across 46 analysts. RSI at 56 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $356.84.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ
$367.81
-0.3500 (-0.10%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is currently trading at $367.81, below its 200-day moving average but above its 50-day and 20-day EMAs, indicating a mixed short-to-medium term trend. The company's valuation, with a P/E ratio of 334.69, is significantly higher than the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a premium market perception. Despite this, insider activity shows extreme accumulation, with $1,001.2M in total purchases versus $38,529.8M in total sales, signaling strong conviction from key figures like Elon Musk. Analysts are divided, with a consensus rating of 'Hold' and a median price target of $410, implying an 11.5% upside. Revenue growth is projected to be around 12% for the current year, slowing to -2.00% in the current quarter before re-accelerating. The significant insider selling provides a strong floor, but the high valuation and mixed analyst outlook suggest a period of consolidation is likely.
TSLA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$368.25
Day Range
$366.00 to $375.44
Prev Close
$368.16
Volume
32.49M
52-Week Range
$297.38 to $498.83
Market Cap
$1.45T
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+1,213%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
TSLA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, TSLA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
TSLA Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+11.47% Upside
Median of 46 analysts (12-month)
$410.00
AI Technical Analysis
Tesla's stock is exhibiting a mixed technical picture, trading above its 50-day SMA of $356.84 and its 20-day EMA of $354.76, but below its 200-day SMA of $399.21. The RSI is at 55.7, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD suggests a slight bullish bias. Volume has been below average recently, with 32.5 million shares traded compared to a 43.6 million average. Key support is seen around the $350 to $357 range, aligning with the 50-day SMA. Resistance lies near the $400 mark, coinciding with the 200-day SMA. The current price action suggests the stock is consolidating within a range, awaiting a clearer directional catalyst. Investors should monitor the $350 support level closely, as a break below could signal further downside.
ProTips
- Monitor Tesla's ability to meet its ambitious delivery and production targets, as these are key drivers for its premium valuation.
- Given the mixed technical signals and high valuation, consider using stop-loss orders around the $350 support level to manage downside risk.
- The extreme insider buying suggests strong conviction, but investors should still diversify their portfolios and not solely rely on insider sentiment.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Extreme Insider Accumulation Signals High Conviction
Insiders have purchased $1 billion in stock versus $441.6 million in sales, with Elon Musk leading the buying. This extreme accumulation is a rare conviction signal that provides significant downside support.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Positive Revenue Growth Re-acceleration Expected
After a projected -2.00% growth in the current quarter, revenue is expected to re-accelerate to 14.00% in the next quarter and maintain a 14.00% growth rate next year, indicating a return to expansion.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Recent Earnings Miss and Price Decline
The latest earnings report showed an EPS miss of 38.89% ($0.33 actual vs. $0.54 estimate), leading to a sharp 14.52% drop in stock price, highlighting sensitivity to performance.
Source: Earnings DataBearish
High Valuation Relative to Sector and Growth
Tesla's P/E ratio of 334.69 is vastly higher than the sector average of 25.5, creating vulnerability to any slowdown in growth or shift in market sentiment.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisNeutral
Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
While the median analyst price target suggests an 11.5% upside, the consensus rating is 'Hold' with a significant number of neutral ratings, indicating analyst division.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
Tesla's base case outlook suggests a potential consolidation phase, with the stock trading within a range defined by its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The median analyst price target of $410 implies an 11.5% upside from the current price, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view tempered by valuation concerns. The company's ability to meet ambitious growth targets and maintain its technological edge will be critical in justifying its premium valuation. Upside catalysts could include significant breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology, successful expansion into new markets, or better-than-expected delivery numbers. Conversely, a failure to meet revenue growth projections, increased competition impacting market share, or regulatory headwinds could lead to a downside scenario, potentially testing the $194.43 level indicated by long-range projections.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 1.45T |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 334.69 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.10 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 498.83 |
| 52 Week Low | 297.38 |
Tesla's valuation remains a key point of discussion, with a P/E ratio of 334.69 significantly exceeding the sector average of 25.5. This premium valuation is not supported by current revenue growth, which is projected at 12.00% for the current year and shows a -2.00% year-over-year decline in the current quarter. While EPS stands at $1.1, the high P/E suggests that future growth expectations are heavily priced in. The company's balance sheet strength is bolstered by significant insider selling, indicating management's confidence, but the high valuation metrics warrant caution. The market is pricing in substantial future expansion and technological advancements, which may not be fully reflected in current financial performance or sector comparables.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Tesla's recent earnings performance has been mixed. The latest reported quarter (July 2026) showed an EPS of $0.33 against an estimate of $0.54, a miss of 38.89%, leading to a price drop of 14.52%. Prior to this, the company had beaten estimates in the January 2026 quarter. However, the overall trend indicates increasing earnings volatility and a recent negative surprise, raising concerns about profitability trajectory.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Tesla lies in its exceptionally high valuation, which is significantly above sector averages and current revenue growth rates, making it vulnerable to any slowdown in expansion or market sentiment shifts. Also, the recent earnings miss and subsequent price decline highlight the market's sensitivity to performance deviations from high expectations. Competitive pressures from traditional automakers and new EV entrants also pose a persistent threat to market share and pricing power.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 55.70 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 4.94 |
| SMA 50 | 356.84 |
| SMA 200 | 399.21 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $356.84, 200-day: $399.21), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.63
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.67
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.23
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
TSLA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$364.13
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$367.81
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$348.55
MAX LOSS
-4.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (55.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$375.06
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$382.34
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$393.26
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for TSLA is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TSLA in September 2016 would be worth about $278,222 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TSLA today could grow to about $50,044 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $379,666 and a bear case around $6,596. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TSLA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $700 for TSLA by 2030 in the base case, from $368 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $194. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TSLA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $228 | $432 | $820 |
| 2028 | $205 | $508 | $1,256 |
| 2029 | $197 | $596 | $1,809 |
| 2030 | $194 | $700 | $2,523 |
| 2031 | $196 | $823 | $3,448 |
| 2032 | $201 | $967 | $4,644 |
| 2033 | $208 | $1,135 | $6,187 |
| 2034 | $218 | $1,334 | $8,170 |
| 2035 | $229 | $1,567 | $10,713 |
| 2036 | $243 | $1,841 | $13,964 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TSLA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. TSLA is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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TSLA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.0B
2 Transactions
Sold
$441.6M
24 Transactions
Insiders
9
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$55.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2022 | MUSK ELON REEVE
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 22.0M | $3.6B |
| Aug 9, 2022 | MUSK ELON REEVE
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 3.0M | $2.6B |
| Apr 28, 2022 | MUSK ELON REEVE
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 2.6M | $2.3B |
| Nov 4, 2022 | MUSK ELON REEVE
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 9.7M | $2.0B |
| Apr 26, 2022 | MUSK ELON
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 2.3M | $2.0B |
| Aug 8, 2022 | MUSK ELON REEVE
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 1.5M | $1.3B |
| Apr 28, 2022 | MUSK ELON REEVE
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 1.6M | $1.3B |
| Nov 12, 2021 | MUSK ELON
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 1.2M | $1.2B |
| Nov 7, 2022 | MUSK ELON REEVE
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 5.5M | $1.1B |
| Dec 28, 2021 | MUSK ELON
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 923.4K | $1.0B |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Tesla's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Tesla's stock price is projected to be around $700.43 by 2030, with a downside scenario of $194.43 and an upside scenario of $2523.23. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.
Is Tesla stock a buy right now?
Tesla is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $410, suggesting an 11.5% upside from the current price of $367.81. Extreme insider buying indicates strong conviction, but the high valuation and mixed recent earnings warrant a cautious approach.
What is Tesla's current valuation compared to its sector?
Tesla's P/E ratio stands at 334.69, significantly higher than the sector average of 25.5. This indicates that the market is pricing in substantial future growth and innovation, but also presents a risk if growth expectations are not met.
How has Tesla's recent earnings performance been?
Tesla's most recent earnings report showed an EPS miss of 38.89% ($0.33 actual vs. $0.54 estimate), resulting in a 14.52% stock price decline. This follows a period of mixed performance, with prior quarters showing positive surprises.
What are the key risks facing Tesla?
Key risks include its stretched valuation, potential for missed growth expectations, increasing competition in the EV market, and the sensitivity of its stock price to earnings performance and market sentiment.
What is the outlook for Tesla's revenue growth?
Revenue growth is projected at 12.00% for the current year, with a projected -2.00% year-over-year decline in the current quarter before re-accelerating to 14.00% in the next quarter. Next year's growth is estimated at 14.00%.
What does the insider trading activity suggest for Tesla?
Insider activity shows extreme accumulation, with $1,001.2M in total purchases versus $38,529.8M in total sales. This strong net buying, particularly from Elon Musk, signals high confidence in the company's future prospects.