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As of September 10, 2026, Lundin Gold Inc (LUGDF) trades at $69.84. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $69.84, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $160.00 across 10 analysts. RSI at 49 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $62.67.
Lundin Gold Inc (LUGDF)
Lundin Gold Inc OTC
$69.84
-0.9300 (-1.31%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
45 / 100
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) is currently trading at $69.84, with its fair value estimated at the same price, indicating no immediate upside based on this metric. The stock's consensus rating is Hold, supported by a consensus score of 45, reflecting a mixed outlook. While the company has demonstrated positive year-over-year revenue growth of 5.5% and analysts project significant revenue increases for the current and next year, insider transactions show a moderate sell signal. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($62.67 and $69.67) but has recently dipped below its 20-day EMA, suggesting a shift in short-term momentum. Key risks include the moderate insider selling and the stock's current trading position relative to its short-term moving averages. Despite these concerns, the company's strong revenue growth projections and the fact that it is trading above longer-term support levels provide some stability. The consensus among analysts remains cautiously optimistic, with a median price target of $160.00, implying substantial upside potential from current levels.
LUGDF Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$71.55
Day Range
$68.57 to $71.55
Prev Close
$70.77
Volume
9.3K
52-Week Range
$51.68 to $90.49
Market Cap
$16.85B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Basic Materials)
Performance vs XLB
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-38%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
LUGDF Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
Volume on Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) has been significantly lower than average, down 84.8% compared to its typical daily volume, indicating reduced trading interest. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($62.67 and $69.67), suggesting a generally positive long-term trend. However, it has recently moved below its 20-day EMA, which, combined with a neutral RSI of 48.83, points to a potential short-term weakening of momentum. Key support levels are indicated by the 50-day SMA at $62.67 and the 200-day SMA at $69.67. Resistance is suggested by the recent price action and the 20-day EMA at $69.72. The current price of $69.84 is hovering just above the 200-day SMA, highlighting a critical juncture for the stock's near-term direction. The MACD indicator at 2.4168 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, but the recent price action below the 20-day EMA warrants caution.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling activity closely; a continuation could signal further downside pressure.
- The stock's ability to reclaim and hold above the 20-day EMA at $69.72 will be a key short-term indicator.
- Given the moderate sell signal from insiders, consider position sizing carefully and ensure stop-loss orders are appropriately placed, at least 1.5x the daily volatility (currently ~7.9%) away from your entry price.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold approximately $21.8 million in stock versus purchases of $13.4 million, indicating a net seller position and potentially signaling a lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast significant revenue increases, with current year estimates at $3.1 billion (+29.00% YoY) and next year at $3.4 billion (+7.00% YoY), suggesting strong business expansion.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBullish
High Analyst Price Target
The median analyst price target for Lundin Gold Inc. is $160.00, implying a potential upside of 129.09% from the current price, suggesting strong conviction from the analyst community.
Source: Wall Street SummaryNeutral
Trading Near 200-Day SMA
The stock is currently trading just above its 200-day SMA at $69.67, indicating that longer-term support is holding, but the proximity suggests this level is critical for maintaining the current trend.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) over the next 6-12 months is cautiously neutral, with the stock trading near its fair value of $69.84. The stock's ability to hold above the 200-day SMA at $69.67 will be critical for maintaining a positive trend. Potential upside catalysts include the significant revenue growth projections and the substantial upside implied by the median analyst target price of $160.00. Conversely, continued insider selling or a failure to reclaim the 20-day EMA could lead to a retest of the 200-day SMA and potentially lower levels. The company's performance against its projected revenue growth and its ability to manage insider selling sentiment will be key factors to monitor. Insiders are net sellers with $49.8M in total sales versus $13.0M in total purchases in recent filings.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 16.85B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.80 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.85 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.44% |
| 52 Week High | 90.49 |
| 52 Week Low | 51.68 |
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) presents a mixed valuation picture, with a P/E ratio of 18.80, which is below the sector median of 30.2. This suggests the stock may be trading at a discount relative to its peers in the Basic Materials sector. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $3.85, and its revenue growth for the past period was 5.5%, which is below the sector average of 19.7%. Despite the lower revenue growth compared to the sector, analysts project strong revenue increases, with current year estimates at $3.1 billion (up 29.00% YoY) and next year at $3.4 billion (up 7.00% YoY). The company's Return on Equity (ROE) is 17.6%, aligning with the sector median. The fair value is currently assessed at $69.84, with no upside indicated from this valuation metric, while the analyst median target price of $160.00 suggests significant potential upside.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) most recently reported earnings on June 17, 2026, with an actual EPS of $3.16, slightly beating the estimate of $3.12 by 1.28%. This beat was accompanied by a minor price decrease of -0.42%. Prior to this, the company missed estimates in April 2026 and January 2026, though it reported a significant EPS beat in February 2026. The overall trend shows some inconsistency in earnings performance relative to analyst expectations.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) is the moderate sell signal indicated by insider transactions, with total sales exceeding total purchases by approximately $8.4 million. Additionally, the stock's recent move below its 20-day EMA, despite trading above longer-term moving averages, suggests potential short-term weakness. The company's revenue growth of 5.5% also lags behind the sector average, although future growth projections are strong.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 48.83 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 2.42 |
| SMA 50 | 62.67 |
| SMA 200 | 69.67 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $62.67, 200-day: $69.67), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.23
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.14
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.68
Moderate correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
LUGDF Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$69.14
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$69.84
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$64.30
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (48.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$71.22
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$72.60
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$74.67
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
LUGDF is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.85%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in LUGDF in September 2016 would be worth about $167,457 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in LUGDF today could grow to about $45,227 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $303,495 and a bear case around $6,740. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
LUGDF Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $128 for LUGDF by 2030 in the base case, from $69.84 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $38.32. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on LUGDF's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $44.48 | $81.22 | $148 |
| 2028 | $40.31 | $94.45 | $221 |
| 2029 | $38.72 | $110 | $312 |
| 2030 | $38.32 | $128 | $426 |
| 2031 | $38.65 | $149 | $571 |
| 2032 | $39.53 | $173 | $755 |
| 2033 | $40.85 | $201 | $988 |
| 2034 | $42.56 | $234 | $1,282 |
| 2035 | $44.63 | $272 | $1,653 |
| 2036 | $47.07 | $316 | $2,120 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using LUGDF's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. LUGDF is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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LUGDF Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$13.0M
6 Transactions
Sold
$22.1M
17 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lundin Gold Inc
Issuer
|
Grant | 21.1K | - |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lundin Gold Inc
Issuer
|
Buy | 9.9K | $612.8K |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Lundin Gold Inc
Issuer
|
Buy | 10.0K | $630.1K |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Lundin Gold Inc
Issuer
|
Buy | 1.2K | $75.8K |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Lundin Gold Inc
Issuer
|
Other | 0 | - |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Beck (James Andrew)
Director of Issuer
|
Buy | 6.2K | $333.6K |
| May 13, 2026 | Davidson (Gillian)
Director of Issuer
|
Option | 16.3K | $124.9K |
| May 12, 2026 | Daniele (Carmela)
Director of Issuer
|
Grant | 2.2K | - |
| May 12, 2026 | Heppenstall (C Ashley)
Director of Issuer
|
Grant | 2.3K | - |
| May 12, 2026 | Mir (Pablo J)
Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary of Issuer (other than in 4,5,6)
|
Option | 2.2K | $152.3K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) stock a buy right now?
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) is currently rated Hold, with a consensus score of 45. While analysts have a median price target of $160.00, implying significant upside, the stock's fair value is assessed at its current price of $69.84. Moderate insider selling and a neutral RSI suggest caution is warranted.
What is Lundin Gold Inc.'s (LUGDF) fair value and upside potential?
The fair value for Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) is estimated at $69.84, which is its current trading price, indicating no immediate upside based on this metric. However, the median analyst target price stands at $160.00, suggesting a substantial potential upside of 129.09%.
How has Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) performed in recent earnings reports?
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) recently beat its EPS estimate by 1.28% on June 17, 2026, reporting $3.16 actual EPS versus an estimate of $3.12. However, this beat was followed by a slight price decrease. The company has shown mixed performance against estimates in prior quarters.
What do insider transactions indicate for Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF)?
Insider transactions for Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) indicate a moderate sell signal. Insiders have sold approximately $21.8 million worth of stock compared to purchases totaling $13.4 million, resulting in a net seller position.
What is the technical outlook for Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF)?
Technically, Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($62.67 and $69.67) but has recently fallen below its 20-day EMA. Volume is significantly below average, and the RSI is neutral at 48.83, suggesting a pause or potential shift in short-term momentum.
How does Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) compare to its sector averages?
Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) has a P/E ratio of 18.80, which is lower than the Basic Materials sector median of 30.2. Its revenue growth of 5.5% is below the sector average of 19.7%, but its ROE of 17.6% is in line with the sector median of 17.6%.
What are the long-term projections for Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) stock?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations for 2030, Lundin Gold Inc. (LUGDF) has a base case projection of $127.72, with a downside scenario of $38.32 and an upside scenario of $425.74. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.