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As of September 12, 2026, Paychex Inc. (PAYX) trades at $115.80. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $115.80, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $112.00 across 19 analysts. RSI at 29 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $117.61.
Paychex Inc. (PAYX)
Paychex Inc. NASDAQ
$115.80
0.6200 (0.54%)
At close: Sep 11, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
43 / 100
At $115.80, Paychex Inc. is trading below its 50-day moving average of $117.61, signaling a short-term bearish trend. The stock's RSI is currently 29.25, indicating oversold conditions, which may present a buying opportunity if momentum shifts. Despite this, recent insider transactions show a net seller position, with total sales of $25.8 million against purchases of $197.3 thousand, suggesting caution among management. Paychex operates in the Software - Application industry within the Technology sector, a space that has seen median revenue growth of 24.1%. However, Paychex's own revenue growth is projected at 5.00% for the next quarter and 6.00% for the current year, indicating a potential slowdown relative to sector peers. The company's P/E ratio of 23.55 is below the sector median of 34, which could suggest it is undervalued or facing growth concerns.
PAYX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$115.03
Day Range
$114.80 to $115.97
Prev Close
$115.18
Volume
1.76M
52-Week Range
$85.45 to $139.53
Market Cap
$41.22B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-31%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
PAYX Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-3.28% Downside
Median of 19 analysts (12-month)
$112.00
AI Technical Analysis
Paychex Inc. is currently trading at $115.80, below its 50-day moving average of $117.61 and its 20-day exponential moving average of $120.56, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29.25, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a bounce. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -0.17, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. Key support levels are critical given the current technical setup. While the stock is trading above its 200-day SMA of $104.14, the proximity to the 50-day SMA at $117.61 presents immediate resistance. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume of 1.76 million compared to an average of 2.36 million, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the current price action. Investors should watch for a potential reversal signal from the oversold RSI, but the current trend and insider selling warrant caution.
ProTips
- Paychex Inc. is trading in oversold territory according to its RSI, which could signal a potential short-term bounce, but this should be confirmed by a shift in insider sentiment and improving technical momentum.
- Given the moderate insider selling and below-sector revenue growth, consider a conservative position sizing until a clear bullish catalyst emerges.
- The stock's current price action is below its 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish short-term trend that investors should monitor closely for any signs of reversal.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $25.8 million worth of stock against minimal purchases of $197.3 thousand, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term stock performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Below Sector Revenue Growth
Projected revenue growth of 5.00% to 6.00% significantly trails the technology sector median of 24.1%, raising concerns about competitive positioning and future expansion.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBullish
Oversold RSI Conditions
The stock's RSI is at 29.25, indicating oversold conditions that historically can precede a price reversal or bounce.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Consistent Earnings Beats
Paychex Inc. has a track record of beating EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 4.38% surprise, demonstrating operational reliability.
Source: Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Paychex Inc. suggests a period of consolidation or modest decline, given the current technical indicators and Wall Street's neutral stance. With a median analyst price target of $112.00, below the current price, and moderate insider selling, the near-term upside appears limited. The company's lower projected revenue growth compared to its sector peers also weighs on future expansion expectations. Potential catalysts for a bullish reversal would likely stem from a significant shift in insider sentiment, a strong earnings beat coupled with positive forward guidance, or a broader market rally that lifts oversold technology stocks. Conversely, a failure to break out of its current bearish technical trend, continued sluggish revenue growth, or any negative news regarding client retention could push the stock towards its 200-day moving average support at $104.14, or even lower if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 41.22B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.55 |
| EPS (TTM) | 4.89 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.92% |
| 52 Week High | 139.53 |
| 52 Week Low | 85.45 |
Paychex Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture with a P/E ratio of 23.55, which is below the sector median of 34, implying a potential valuation discount. However, its projected revenue growth of 5.00% for the next quarter and 6.00% for the current year lags behind the sector's median revenue growth of 24.1%. This suggests that the lower P/E might be justified by more modest growth prospects compared to industry peers. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $4.89, and it has consistently beaten analyst estimates in recent quarters, with the latest quarter showing a 4.38% surprise. Despite these earnings beats, the stock's current price action and Wall Street's neutral consensus suggest that the market may be looking past recent performance towards future growth expectations. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the lack of significant debt-to-equity ratio compared to the sector average (estimated at 0.0) is a positive.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Paychex Inc. has demonstrated a pattern of beating analyst expectations in its recent earnings reports. The most recent quarter ending July 30, 2026, saw actual EPS of $2.62 against an estimate of $2.51, a 4.38% surprise, with the stock reacting positively with a 0.44% price increase. Prior quarters also show consistent beats, indicating operational efficiency and reliable forecasting from management.
Key Risks
Moderate insider selling, with total sales exceeding $25.8 million against minimal purchases, presents a key risk, signaling potential concerns among management regarding future stock performance. The stock's current oversold RSI of 29.25, while potentially indicating a bounce, also reflects significant selling pressure and bearish momentum. Also, Paychex's projected revenue growth of 5.00% to 6.00% is considerably lower than the sector median of 24.1%, raising concerns about its ability to maintain competitive growth in the Technology sector.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 29.25 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.17 |
| SMA 50 | 117.61 |
| SMA 200 | 104.14 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($117.61) above the 200-day SMA ($104.14), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 29.3 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.28
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.14
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.10
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
PAYX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$114.64
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$115.80
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$110.86
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (29.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$118.08
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$120.37
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$123.81
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PAYX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 12, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PAYX in September 2016 would be worth about $19,348 today, compared with about $35,328 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PAYX today could grow to about $19,663 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $55,850 and a bear case around $6,923. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PAYX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $152 for PAYX by 2030 in the base case, from $116 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $78.42. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PAYX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $89.07 | $124 | $172 |
| 2028 | $83.12 | $133 | $211 |
| 2029 | $80.07 | $142 | $251 |
| 2030 | $78.42 | $152 | $294 |
| 2031 | $77.62 | $162 | $340 |
| 2032 | $77.40 | $174 | $390 |
| 2033 | $77.62 | $186 | $445 |
| 2034 | $78.19 | $199 | $506 |
| 2035 | $79.05 | $213 | $573 |
| 2036 | $80.17 | $228 | $647 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PAYX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
PAYX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$197.3K
2 Transactions
Sold
$25.8M
11 Transactions
Insiders
22
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2020 | RIVERA EFRAIN
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 396.4K | $29.1M |
| Oct 18, 2019 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 315.0K | $26.6M |
| Jul 2, 2024 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 187.3K | $21.9M |
| Dec 27, 2021 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 150.0K | $20.1M |
| Oct 16, 2020 | RIVERA EFRAIN
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 216.8K | $18.2M |
| Jul 16, 2021 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 147.2K | $16.6M |
| Jul 14, 2023 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 132.9K | $16.0M |
| Jul 10, 2025 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 97.5K | $14.2M |
| Dec 27, 2021 | SCHAEFFER STEPHANIE L
Officer
|
Sell | 103.0K | $13.8M |
| Nov 12, 2020 | GIBSON JOHN B JR
Officer
|
Sell | 130.8K | $11.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Paychex Inc. stock a buy right now?
Paychex Inc. is currently rated as a Hold with a consensus score of 43. While the stock is trading at $115.80, below its 50-day moving average and showing oversold conditions on its RSI, moderate insider selling and slower-than-sector revenue growth temper the bullish case. Wall Street's median price target of $112.00 also suggests limited upside from current levels.
What is Paychex Inc.'s price target?
The median analyst price target for Paychex Inc. is $112.00, which is 3.3% below its current trading price of $115.80. This suggests that Wall Street analysts, on average, do not anticipate significant price appreciation in the near term.
What are the biggest risks for Paychex Inc. stock?
Key risks for Paychex Inc. include significant insider selling totaling over $25.8 million, which may indicate management's lack of confidence in future stock performance. Additionally, the company's projected revenue growth is substantially lower than its technology sector peers, raising concerns about its competitive positioning and future expansion.
How is Paychex Inc. performing technically?
Technically, Paychex Inc. is showing bearish signals, trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages, with an RSI at 29.3 indicating oversold conditions. The MACD is also negative, reinforcing the current downward momentum. However, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average, which could act as a longer-term support level.
What is Paychex Inc.'s revenue growth outlook?
Paychex Inc. is projected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 5.00% for the next quarter and 6.00% for the current year. This growth rate is notably lower than the median revenue growth of 24.1% observed among its technology sector peers.
How does Paychex Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Paychex Inc. has a P/E ratio of 23.55, which is below the technology sector median of 34, suggesting it may be undervalued relative to peers. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is 13.4%, slightly above the sector median of 13.4%. However, its revenue growth is significantly lower than the sector's median of 24.1%.
What is Paychex Inc.'s dividend yield?
Paychex Inc. offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.92%, with a dividend rate of $4.54. This yield is relatively attractive for income-focused investors.
What is Paychex Inc.'s stock price prediction for 2030?
According to Monte Carlo simulations, Paychex Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $151.77 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $78.42, and the upside projection is $293.70. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.