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As of October 11, 2026, Paychex Inc. (PAYX) trades at $103.98. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $103.98, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $111.00 across 19 analysts. RSI at 29 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $115.54.
Paychex Inc. (PAYX)
Paychex Inc. NASDAQ
$103.98
-0.4800 (-0.46%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
50 / 100
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is currently trading at $103.98, precisely at its 200-day moving average, indicating a neutral trend. The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29.4, signaling oversold conditions that could precede a bounce. Despite these technicals, moderate insider selling, with total sales of $20.9 million against $197.3 thousand in purchases, suggests a cautious outlook from management. Fundamentally, Paychex's valuation appears stretched relative to its sector peers. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 20.75, while the sector median is 34. However, its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 5.64 is below the sector average of 7.5. The company exhibits strong profitability with a net profit margin of 27.35% and a return on equity of 47.06%, though its revenue growth of 5.9% is significantly lower than the sector median of 24.1%.
PAYX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$104.84
Day Range
$103.89 to $105.66
Prev Close
$104.46
Volume
1.98M
52-Week Range
$85.45 to $130.32
Market Cap
$37.01B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-39%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
PAYX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, PAYX beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
PAYX Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+6.75% Upside
Median of 19 analysts (12-month)
$111.00
AI Technical Analysis
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is exhibiting bearish momentum with its RSI at 29.4, indicating oversold conditions. The stock is trading below its 50-day ($115.54) and 20-day ($106.03) moving averages, suggesting short-term weakness. The MACD is also negative at -4.23, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Currently trading at $103.98, the stock is positioned at its 200-day moving average, which may act as support. However, the proximity to the 50-day SMA resistance at $115.54 and the oversold RSI suggest a potential for a near-term bounce. Volume has been below average recently, with 1.98 million shares traded compared to a 30-day average of 3.01 million, indicating a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers at this level.
ProTips
- Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is trading at its 200-day moving average, a critical technical level that warrants close observation for potential support or resistance.
- The company's revenue growth of 5.9% is substantially lower than the sector median of 24.1%, suggesting a need to monitor competitive positioning and market share dynamics.
- Given the moderate insider selling, investors should remain cautious and ensure any investment aligns with a long-term strategy rather than short-term speculation.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The stock's RSI is at 29.4, indicating oversold territory, which historically can precede a price rebound.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $20.9 million worth of stock against only $197.3 thousand in purchases, signaling a lack of strong internal conviction.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Below-Sector Revenue Growth
Paychex's revenue growth of 5.9% significantly trails the sector median of 24.1%, indicating potential market share challenges or slower expansion.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisNeutral
Trading at 200-Day Moving Average
The stock is currently priced at its 200-day moving average ($103.50), a key technical level that could act as support or resistance.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is expected to maintain a 'Hold' rating in the near term, with its price hovering around the 200-day moving average of $103.50. Analysts have a median price target of $111.00, implying a modest upside of 6.75% from the current price. The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 5.00% for the current year, with forward-looking estimates suggesting continued single-digit growth. Potential upside catalysts include a rebound from oversold technical conditions, as indicated by the RSI of 29.4. However, significant headwinds exist, including slower revenue growth compared to sector peers and moderate insider selling. A breach below the 200-day moving average could signal further downside, while a strong earnings report exceeding expectations might provide a catalyst for upward movement.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 37.01B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.75 |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.04 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.37% |
| 52 Week High | 130.32 |
| 52 Week Low | 85.45 |
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) presents a mixed fundamental picture, trading at a P/E ratio of 20.75, which is below the sector median of 34, suggesting a potential valuation discount. However, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 5.64 is higher than the sector median of 7.5, indicating that the market values its revenue stream more highly than the average peer. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 27.35% and an impressive return on equity of 47.06%. Its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.25 is in line with the sector average. Despite strong profitability, revenue growth at 5.9% lags significantly behind the sector median of 24.1%, raising questions about its future expansion potential.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending September 2026, with an EPS of $1.34, slightly beating the estimate of $1.32 by 1.52%. This beat was accompanied by a 2.78% decrease in stock price, suggesting the market reaction was negative. Prior quarters also showed a pattern of modest EPS beats, but the stock price reaction has been inconsistent.
Key Risks
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) faces moderate selling pressure from insiders, with total sales exceeding purchases by over $20 million, signaling potential management caution. The company's revenue growth of 5.9% is substantially lower than the sector average of 24.1%, indicating potential challenges in expanding its market share or adapting to evolving industry demands. Also, the stock is trading at its 200-day moving average, a critical technical level that, if breached, could signal a more significant downtrend.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 29.40 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.23 |
| SMA 50 | 115.54 |
| SMA 200 | 103.50 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($115.54) above the 200-day SMA ($103.50), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 29.4 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.27
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with PAYX? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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PAYX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$102.94
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$103.98
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$99.25
MAX LOSS
-3.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (29.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$106.03
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$108.09
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$111.18
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PAYX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PAYX in October 2016 would be worth about $18,558 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PAYX today could grow to about $19,237 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $55,019 and a bear case around $6,726. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PAYX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $135 for PAYX by 2030 in the base case, from $104 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $69.50. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PAYX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $79.62 | $111 | $155 |
| 2028 | $74.08 | $119 | $190 |
| 2029 | $71.16 | $127 | $225 |
| 2030 | $69.50 | $135 | $263 |
| 2031 | $68.60 | $144 | $303 |
| 2032 | $68.22 | $154 | $347 |
| 2033 | $68.24 | $164 | $396 |
| 2034 | $68.56 | $175 | $449 |
| 2035 | $69.14 | $187 | $508 |
| 2036 | $69.94 | $200 | $572 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PAYX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
PAYX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$197.3K
2 Transactions
Sold
$20.9M
10 Transactions
Insiders
21
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2020 | RIVERA EFRAIN
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 396.4K | $29.1M |
| Oct 18, 2019 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 315.0K | $26.6M |
| Jul 2, 2024 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 187.3K | $21.9M |
| Dec 27, 2021 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 150.0K | $20.1M |
| Oct 16, 2020 | RIVERA EFRAIN
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 216.8K | $18.2M |
| Jul 16, 2021 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 147.2K | $16.6M |
| Jul 14, 2023 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 132.9K | $16.0M |
| Jul 10, 2025 | MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 97.5K | $14.2M |
| Dec 27, 2021 | SCHAEFFER STEPHANIE L
Officer
|
Sell | 103.0K | $13.8M |
| Nov 12, 2020 | GIBSON JOHN B JR
Officer
|
Sell | 130.8K | $11.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Paychex Inc. stock a buy right now?
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is currently rated as a 'Hold' with a consensus score of 50. The stock is trading at $103.98, precisely at its 200-day moving average, and exhibits oversold technical conditions. However, moderate insider selling and below-average revenue growth present headwinds.
What is Paychex Inc.'s analyst target price?
The median analyst target price for Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is $111.00, suggesting an upside potential of 6.75% from its current price of $103.98. The average target price from 19 analysts is $113.93.
How is Paychex Inc. performing financially?
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 27.35% and a return on equity of 47.06%. However, its revenue growth of 5.9% is considerably lower than the sector median of 24.1%.
What are the key technical indicators for Paychex Inc. stock?
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) shows oversold conditions with an RSI at 29.4. It is trading below its 50-day ($115.54) and 20-day ($106.03) moving averages, but currently holds at its 200-day moving average ($103.50).
What is the outlook for Paychex Inc. revenue growth?
Wall Street analysts project revenue growth of 4.00% for the current quarter and 5.00% for the current year. For the next year, revenue growth is estimated at 5.00%. This is significantly below the sector median revenue growth of 24.1%.
Are insiders buying or selling Paychex Inc. stock?
Insiders at Paychex Inc. (PAYX) are net sellers, with total sales of $20.9 million compared to total purchases of $197.3 thousand. This indicates a moderate sell signal from management.
How does Paychex Inc. compare to its sector peers?
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) has a P/E ratio of 20.75, which is lower than the sector median of 34, but its P/S ratio of 5.64 is higher than the sector median of 7.5. Its revenue growth of 5.9% lags the sector's 24.1% median.
What is Paychex Inc.'s long-range projection for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Paychex Inc. (PAYX) has a base case projection of $135.08 for 2030, with a downside projection of $69.50 and an upside projection of $262.57. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.