CleaRank Financial AI • AI-powered analysis using real-time market data from TwelveData
Analysis reviewed by Kate Leaman, Financial Journalist and Market Analyst. Data refreshed daily. Not financial advice.
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) is currently trading at $1831.17, below its 50-day SMA of $1861.05 and 200-day SMA of $1833.28. Despite this technical positioning, the company demonstrates strong financial health with a profit margin of 5.30% and a return on equity of 27.50%. Revenue growth has been strong at 49.8%, significantly outpacing the sector average of 7.2%. Wall Street analysts maintain a positive outlook, with a median price target of $2275.00, implying a 24.2% upside from the current price. The company's strong revenue growth and solid profitability metrics, coupled with a significant number of 'Buy' ratings from analysts, form the basis of a constructive outlook. While recent insider selling warrants monitoring, the overall analyst sentiment and forward-looking growth estimates suggest potential for continued expansion in its e-commerce and fintech operations across Latin America. The primary risk remains the current trading price relative to its short-term moving averages, which could indicate near-term consolidation.
MELI at a glance
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI): Buy, 75/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
TrendDown: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($1,861.05 and $1,833.28).
InsidersInsiders sold $2.3M and bought $1.3M over the last 18 months.
ValuationP/E of 51.0 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a premium to peers (+145%).
As of October 14, 2026, MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) trades at $1,831.17. Wall Street's consensus target is $2,275.00 across 26 analysts. The 14-day RSI (daily closes) is 50, in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day simple moving average of $1,861.05.
Figures as of October 14, 2026.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MELI's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+145%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
MELI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
In the last 2 quarters, MELI beat the analyst estimate 1 time; the stock fell in the first session after 1 of those beats.
MELI earnings surprises and the stock's reaction
Report
EPS estimate
EPS actual
Surprise
First session
5 sessions
Aug 5, 2026
$8.89
$9.19
+3.37%
-4.81%
-4.90%
May 7, 2026
$8.47
$8.23
-2.83%
-12.70%
-14.04%
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
As of October 14, 2026, MELI has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of its last 2 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after it; its latest report, on August 5, 2026, came in 3.37% above the estimate and the stock moved -4.81% in the first session.
MELI Analysis
Company's Health4/5
12-Month Analyst Target+24.24% above price
Median of 26 analysts (12-month)
$2,275.00
AI Analyst Consensus ScoreBuy
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) is currently trading below its 50-day simple moving average of $1861.05 and its 200-day simple moving average of $1833.28, indicating a near-term bearish trend. The 20-day exponential moving average at $1833.01 also sits below the current price, reinforcing this sentiment. The 14-day RSI is at 49.51, signaling neutral momentum, while the CCI is at 40.76. Key support levels are near the 200-day SMA, while resistance is observed around the 50-day SMA.
ProTips
Monitor MercadoLibre Inc.'s (MELI) ability to break above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as sustained trading above these levels would signal a shift in momentum.
Key Catalysts
BullishStrong Revenue Growth Continues
MercadoLibre Inc. reported 49.8% revenue growth, significantly exceeding the sector average, indicating strong demand and market penetration.
Source: Company Financials
BullishPositive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
26 analysts cover MELI, with a median price target of $2275.00, implying a 24.2% upside from the current price.
Source: Wall Street Summary
BearishModerate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $2.31 million worth of shares versus $1.30 million purchased, resulting in a moderate sell signal.
Source: Insider Transactions
BearishTrading Below Key Moving Averages
MELI is currently trading below its 50-day SMA ($1861.05) and 200-day SMA ($1833.28), indicating near-term technical weakness.
Source: Technical Analysis
NeutralMixed Earnings Reaction
Recent earnings reports have shown mixed reactions, with an EPS beat on August 5, 2026, followed by a price decline, and a prior miss leading to a significant drop.
Source: Earnings Reports
Market Outlook
The base case scenario for MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) anticipates a recovery towards its median analyst price target of $2275.00 within the next 6-12 months, driven by its strong revenue growth and strong market position in Latin America. The company's projected revenue growth of 45.00% for the current year and an average annual growth rate of 46.2% over the next five years support this optimistic outlook. Potential catalysts for upside include continued market share gains in e-commerce and fintech, successful expansion into new markets, and positive earnings surprises that could reignite investor confidence. Conversely, downside risks include increased competition, regulatory changes in Latin America, and a failure to break above its current resistance levels around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which could lead to further price consolidation or decline.
Key Statistics
Market Cap
95.11B
P/E Ratio
51.02
EPS (TTM)
36.77
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52 Week High
2,428.00
52 Week Low
1,495.00
As of October 14, 2026, MELI trades at $1,831.17, with a market value of $95.11B, a P/E ratio of 51.02 and a dividend yield of 0.03%.
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) trades at a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 51.02, which is considerably higher than the sector average of 20.8, but its Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.70 is above the sector average of 1.9. The company's return on equity stands at a strong 27.50%, significantly outperforming the sector average of 12.4%. With a profit margin of 5.30% and an operating margin of 6.72%, MELI demonstrates effective operational efficiency. Its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.69 is higher than the sector average, but given its strong profitability and growth, it appears manageable. The company's impressive revenue growth of 49.8% suggests strong market positioning and demand for its services.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) reported earnings on August 5, 2026, with actual EPS of $9.19 beating the estimate of $8.89 by 3.37%, though the stock price reacted negatively, falling 4.81%. Prior to this, on May 7, 2026, the company missed estimates with actual EPS of $8.23 against an estimate of $8.47, resulting in a significant price drop of 12.7%. This recent earnings performance indicates a mixed pattern of EPS beats and misses, with negative price reactions following both.
Key Risks
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) faces risks related to its elevated P/E ratio of 51.02 compared to the sector average, suggesting potential valuation concerns. Recent insider selling, with total sales of $2.31 million against $1.30 million in purchases, indicates a moderate sell signal from management. Also, the stock is currently trading below its key short-term moving averages, signaling potential for continued price weakness.
Technical Indicators i
RSI (14-day)
49.51
MACD (12, 26)
2.77
SMA (50-day)
1,861.05
SMA (200-day)
1,833.28
Technical RatingNeutral
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($1,861.05) above the 200-day SMA ($1,833.28), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
As of October 14, 2026, with MELI at $1,831.17, its 14-day RSI is 49.5 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $1,861.05 and its 200-day is $1,833.28.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 14, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)+0.36
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)+0.32
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)+0.21
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)+0.07
Weak correlation
As of October 14, 2026, MELI's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.36 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.32 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.21 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.07 with gold (XAU).
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MELI? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
As of October 14, 2026, 26 Wall Street analysts cover MELI: 21 rate it a buy or strong buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $1,750.00 to $2,800.00, with a median of $2,275.00, 24.2% above the price of $1,831.17.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
MELI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative2%Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$1,794.55
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$1,831.17
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$1,712.72
MAX LOSS
-4.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (49.5) and current market volatility
These levels come from MELI's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MELI in October 2016 would be worth about $112,311 today, compared with about $36,506 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark. This is price change only; dividends paid along the way would add to it.
Compare with Another Ticker
MELI Drawdowns & Recovery
Worst fall, last 10 years
-68.3%
September 2021 to June 2022
Recovery
26 months
back at the old peak by August 2024
From the 10-year high
-29.9%
highest close, June 2025
1-year holds that gained
77%
of every 1-year window
As of October 14, 2026, MELI's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -68.3% (September 2021 to June 2022); it regained that peak by August 2024, 26 months after the low, and 77% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MELI today could grow to about $28,726 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $207,047 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $3,986. The simulation models price only; at today's 0.03% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MELI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $2,793 for MELI by 2030 in the base case, from $1,831 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $801. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MELI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
MELI simulated price paths by year
Year
10th percentile
Base case
90th percentile
2027
$1,090
$2,035
$3,800
2028
$935
$2,261
$5,470
2029
$852
$2,513
$7,414
2030
$801
$2,793
$9,740
2031
$768
$3,104
$12,543
Method: a lognormal simulation of MELI's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. MELI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation.
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Popular Comparisons
MELI Insider Trading Analysis
Source: TwelveData, from reported insider filings
▲Bought
$1.3M
3 Transactions
▼Sold
$2.3M
3 Transactions
●Insiders
7
Active Traders
$Avg Transaction
$600.4K
Moderate size
As of October 14, 2026, MELI insiders reported 3 open-market sales worth $2.3M and 3 open-market purchases worth $1.3M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
Recent insider transactions in MELI
Date
Insider
Type
Shares
Value
Jun 12, 2026
AGUZIN ALEJANDRO NICOLAS
Director
Grant
94
-
Jun 12, 2026
LAWSON MARTIN R
Director
Grant
94
-
Jun 12, 2026
SANDERS RICHARD A
Director
Grant
94
-
Jun 11, 2026
MELAMUD MARCELO
Officer
Buy
124
$200.0K
Jun 10, 2026
TOLDA STELLEO PASSOS
Director
Grant
250
-
May 22, 2026
AGUZIN ALEJANDRO NICOLAS
Director
Buy
600
$993.6K
Feb 27, 2026
MELAMUD MARCELO
Officer
Buy
57
$100.1K
Dec 12, 2025
DUBUGRAS HENRIQUE VASONCELOS
Director
Sell
845
$1.7M
Dec 11, 2025
CALEMZUK EMILIANO
Director
Sell
45
$91.2K
Dec 9, 2025
TOLDA STELLEO PASSOS
Director
Sell
246
$503.8K
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the biggest risks for MercadoLibre Inc.?
Key risks for MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) include its high P/E ratio of 51.02 relative to the sector, recent insider selling totaling $2.31 million, and its current trading position below key moving averages, which may indicate near-term price pressure.
How is MercadoLibre Inc. performing financially?
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) shows strong revenue growth of 49.8% and a healthy return on equity of 27.50%. Its profit margin is 5.30%, and operating margin is 6.72%, indicating effective operational management.
What is the analyst consensus for MELI stock?
The Wall Street consensus for MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) is predominantly 'Buy', with 16 out of 26 analysts recommending a Buy rating.
How has MELI performed in recent earnings reports?
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) recently beat EPS estimates by 3.37% on August 5, 2026, but the stock price declined by 4.81%. Previously, on May 7, 2026, it missed estimates, leading to a 12.7% price drop, indicating a volatile reaction to earnings.
What is the outlook for MercadoLibre Inc. based on growth estimates?
Growth estimates for MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) are positive, with projected revenue growth of 45.00% for the current year and 29.00% for next year. The next five years show an average annual growth rate of 46.2%, suggesting strong future expansion potential.
Does MercadoLibre Inc. pay a dividend?
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) pays a small dividend with a yield of 0.03% and a rate of $0.60. However, its primary focus is on reinvesting earnings for growth rather than substantial dividend payouts.
Is MELI in an uptrend?
No. MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) trades at $1,831.17, below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($1,861.05 and $1,833.28). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 49.5, in neutral territory.
Are insiders buying or selling MELI?
Selling, on balance. In the last 18 months, MELI's officers, directors and large holders reported 3 sales worth $2.3M and 3 open-market purchases worth $1.3M. Grants and option exercises are not counted as buying.
What is the analyst price target for MELI?
As of October 14, 2026, the 26 Wall Street analysts covering MELI have 12-month targets from $1,750.00 to $2,800.00, with a median of $2,275.00, 24.2% above the current price of $1,831.17. 21 rate it a buy or strong buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Three months ago 20 of 24 rated it a buy.
What is MELI's biggest drop in the last 10 years?
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -68.3%, from September 2021 to June 2022. It regained that peak by August 2024, 26 months after the low. Over the same period, 77% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
