As of September 11, 2026, MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) trades at $1,901.19. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $2,275.00, 19.7% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $2,275.00 across 24 analysts. RSI at 48 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $1,873.91.
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
MercadoLibre Inc. NASDAQ
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) is currently trading at $1901.19, a level that positions it above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($1,873.91 and $1,858.28), indicating a generally positive short-to-medium term trend. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 44.00% increase year-over-year, significantly outpacing its sector peers. This growth is underpinned by a strong market position in Latin American e-commerce and fintech.
The consensus among 24 Wall Street analysts is largely positive, with a median price target of $2275.00, suggesting an upside potential of 19.7% from the current price. While the stock trades at a higher P/E ratio (51.83) compared to the sector average (25.5), its superior revenue growth and expanding market share justify this premium. Key risks include potential regulatory changes in its operating regions and increasing competition, though its established network effects provide a significant competitive moat.
MELI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
MELI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
MELI Analysis
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $1873.91 and its 200-day SMA of $1858.28, signaling a bullish trend. The RSI is at 47.56, indicating neutral momentum, while the price is below its 20-day EMA of $1919.12, suggesting some near-term selling pressure. Key support is found at the 50-day SMA, with resistance near the 20-day EMA.
Volume has been significantly below average recently, with the latest volume at 9547 compared to an average of 343615, indicating a lack of strong conviction from traders. The MACD at 18.52 suggests a bullish bias, though its proximity to the signal line warrants monitoring. The overall chart structure suggests a consolidation phase after recent gains, with potential for further upside if key resistance levels are broken with increased volume.
- MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) has a dividend yield of 0.03% and a dividend rate of $0.60, which is very low and suggests a focus on reinvesting profits for growth rather than returning capital to shareholders.
- Monitor the 20-day EMA at $1919.12 as a key short-term resistance level; a sustained break above this could signal renewed upward momentum.
- Given the premium valuation, consider position sizing carefully and maintaining a stop-loss order below the 50-day SMA ($1873.91) to manage downside risk.
Analysts project Q3 2026 revenue to reach $10.57B, representing a 43.00% year-over-year increase, indicating continued strong demand for MELI's services.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesMercadoLibre Inc. has demonstrated a pattern of beating EPS estimates, including a 54.76% surprise in its most recent report, signaling effective operational management and growth.
Source: Earnings ReportsThe majority of Wall Street analysts maintain Buy or Overweight ratings, with a median price target of $2275.00, suggesting confidence in future performance.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsInsiders have sold $2.31 million in stock versus $1.29 million purchased, indicating a net selling position that could signal caution regarding short-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider TransactionsMELI's P/E ratio of 51.83 is significantly higher than the sector average of 25.5, making the stock vulnerable to pullbacks if growth expectations falter.
Source: Financial DataThe outlook for MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) remains positive, driven by its dominant position in Latin American e-commerce and fintech, coupled with strong revenue growth projections. The company is expected to continue its expansion, leveraging its established platform to capture market share and introduce new services. The median analyst price target of $2275.00 suggests continued appreciation from the current price of $1901.19.
Potential upside catalysts include successful expansion into new markets or product categories, favorable regulatory developments, and continued strong execution on earnings, which has consistently beaten analyst estimates. Conversely, a significant slowdown in revenue growth, increased competitive pressure, or adverse macroeconomic conditions in Latin America could challenge this outlook and lead to a reassessment of the stock's premium valuation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 96.64B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.83 |
| EPS (TTM) | 36.78 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0316% |
| 52 Week High | 2,548.50 |
| 52 Week Low | 1,495.00 |
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) exhibits a P/E ratio of 51.83, which is considerably higher than the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation. However, this premium is supported by an exceptional revenue growth rate of 49.8% and projected current year growth of 44.00%, far exceeding the sector average of 10.0%. The company's ability to consistently grow its top line at such a pace suggests strong market demand and effective execution.
Profitability, as indicated by EPS of $36.78, remains solid, though the P/E ratio suggests investors are pricing in significant future growth. The balance sheet appears healthy, with a substantial market capitalization of $96.64 billion. While valuation metrics suggest a high growth stock, the company's market leadership and continued expansion in e-commerce and fintech in Latin America provide a strong fundamental basis for its current valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) recently reported an EPS of $0.65 for the quarter ending March 17, 2026, significantly beating the estimate of $0.42 by 54.76%. This positive surprise followed an even larger beat in the prior quarter, where actual EPS of $0.15 surpassed estimates of $0.06 by 150%. Despite these strong earnings beats, the stock experienced a -2.19% price change following the most recent report, while the prior quarter saw a 0.64% gain.
The pattern of consistent EPS beats suggests strong operational performance and effective cost management. The recent price reaction to the latest earnings beat warrants attention, potentially indicating that market expectations are already priced in or that other macro factors are influencing short-term price movements.
Key Risks
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) faces several key risks, including its premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 51.83, significantly higher than the sector average, which could lead to increased volatility if growth expectations are not met. Moderate insider selling, with total sales of $2.31 million versus $1.29 million in purchases, suggests some caution among management regarding short-term price appreciation.
Also, increasing competition in the Latin American e-commerce and fintech space, along with potential regulatory shifts in its key operating markets, pose ongoing challenges. The company's reliance on these specific regions makes it susceptible to localized economic downturns or policy changes.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 47.56 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 18.52 |
| SMA 50 | 1,873.91 |
| SMA 200 | 1,858.28 |
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
MELI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MELI in September 2016 would be worth about $106,174 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MELI today could grow to about $40,116 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $288,985 and a bear case around $5,569. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MELI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $3,314 for MELI by 2030 in the base case, from $1,901 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $951. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MELI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $1,170 | $2,185 | $4,079 |
| 2028 | $1,038 | $2,510 | $6,070 |
| 2029 | $978 | $2,884 | $8,506 |
| 2030 | $951 | $3,314 | $11,554 |
| 2031 | $943 | $3,808 | $15,384 |
| 2032 | $948 | $4,375 | $20,197 |
| 2033 | $964 | $5,027 | $26,232 |
| 2034 | $988 | $5,777 | $33,783 |
| 2035 | $1,020 | $6,638 | $43,208 |
| 2036 | $1,059 | $7,627 | $54,941 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MELI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. MELI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MELI Insider Trading Analysis
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | DUBUGRAS HENRIQUE VASONCELOS
Director
|
Sell | 845 | $1.7M |
| Dec 9, 2025 | TOLDA STELLEO PASSOS
Director
|
Sell | 246 | $503.8K |
| Nov 29, 2024 | CALEMZUK EMILIANO
Director
|
Sell | 50 | $99.2K |
| Dec 11, 2025 | CALEMZUK EMILIANO
Director
|
Sell | 45 | $91.2K |
| Jun 12, 2026 | AGUZIN ALEJANDRO NICOLAS
Director
|
Grant | 94 | - |
| Jun 12, 2026 | LAWSON MARTIN R
Director
|
Grant | 94 | - |
| Jun 12, 2026 | SANDERS RICHARD A
Director
|
Grant | 94 | - |
| Jun 11, 2026 | MELAMUD MARCELO
Officer
|
Buy | 124 | $200.0K |
| Jun 10, 2026 | TOLDA STELLEO PASSOS
Director
|
Grant | 250 | - |
| May 22, 2026 | AGUZIN ALEJANDRO NICOLAS
Director
|
Buy | 600 | $993.6K |