Stock·NASDAQ·Consumer Cyclical
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
- Market cap
- $84.60B
- P/E
- 45.38
- Dividend yield
- None
- Street target
- $2,250.00median of 26 analysts
- 52-week range
- $1,495.00 $2,428.00
MELI stock forecast today
Where MELI stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
MELI at a glance
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI): Hold, 47/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($1,855.81 and $1,822.65).
- Earnings MELI beat estimates in 1 of the 4 reports in our data, yet fell the next day after every one of them.
- Insiders Insiders sold $2.3M and bought $1.3M over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 45.4 against 20.8 for the Consumer Cyclical sector: a premium to peers (+118%).
Figures as of October 26, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
MELI, known formally as MercadoLibre Inc., receives a Hold rating from CleaRank with a model score of 47/100.
The analysts' outlook adds the most to that score: 20 of 26 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 34.8% above the price. The trend subtracts the most, with the price 8.45% below its 200-day average and 10.08% below its 50-day average. The 50-day average is $1,855.81 and the 200-day average is $1,822.65. The price has fallen 22.78% over the past year.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from MELI's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
MELI stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
1/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $1,668.72 is 10.1% below the 50-day simple moving average of $1,855.81.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 8.4% below the 200-day simple moving average of $1,822.65.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($1,855.81) is 1.8% above the 200-day average ($1,822.65), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 19% of its 52-week range, between $1,495.00 and $2,428.00.
MELI share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far MELI has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where MELI sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
MELI fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
1/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 45.38 is 118.2% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 2.40 is 26.6% above the sector median of 1.9.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $1.9B on revenue of $35.2B, a net margin of 5.3%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
MELI beat the EPS estimate in 1 of the 4 reports in our data.
Key statistics
The headline figures for MELI.
As of October 26, 2026, MELI trades at $1,668.72, with a market value of $84.60B and a P/E ratio of 45.38.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of MELI's valuation, growth and risks.
MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) trades at 45.38 times trailing earnings, which is 118.2% above the Consumer Cyclical median of 20.8. The peer comparison on this page places that multiple as a premium to peers. Measured against sales, the P/S of 2.40 is 26.3% above the sector median of 1.9. To put the size in context, the company has a market value of $84.6B and trailing earnings of $36.77 per share.
MELI grew revenue 49.80% in the latest quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier, which is 42.6 percentage points faster than the sector median growth of 7.2%. The company converts sales into profit at a net margin of 5.30% and an operating margin of 6.72%. Its return on equity of 27.50% is above the sector median of 12.4%, and debt-to-equity of 1.69 completes the picture.
The August 5, 2026 report beat expectations by 3.37%: EPS of $9.19 against an estimate of $8.89. The market reacted the other way, with the stock falling 4.81% the following session.
MELI beat the EPS estimate in 1 of the 4 reports in our data, yet the stock fell in the first session after that beat. The May 7, 2026 report stands out among the few before the latest: a miss of 2.83%, after which the stock fell 12.70%. The consensus EPS estimate stands at $38.35 for this fiscal year and $55.70 for next, a decline of 2.7% for the current year.
MELI's daily returns have a 30-day standard deviation of 2.65%, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 1.31. The P/E of 45.38 sits 118.2% above the sector median, which is a premium to peers, so there is less room for disappointment. The downtrend adds risk for as long as the price remains beneath both moving averages. The price is also 31.27% under its 52-week high of $2,428.00.
MELI against the Consumer Cyclical sector
How MELI compares with the median Consumer Cyclical stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: MELI trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+118%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
Return vs SPY: Since May 14, 2025, MELI has lost 34.9% against a gain of 30.3% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
MELI and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much MELI sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 39.1% in FY2025 to $28.9B, from $20.8B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 6.9% in FY2025, down from 9.2% the year before.
Profitable: MELI earned $2.0B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did MELI beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: MELI beat the analyst estimate in 1 of the 4 reports in our data.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after that beat, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026after close | $8.89 | $9.19 | +3.37% | -4.81% | -4.90% |
| May 7, 2026after close | $8.47 | $8.23 | -2.83% | -12.70% | -14.04% |
| Oct 29, 2025after close | $9.37 | $8.32 | -11.21% | +2.82% | +0.26% |
| Aug 4, 2025after close | $11.75 | $10.31 | -12.26% | +0.51% | -4.33% |
As of October 26, 2026, MELI has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 1 of the 4 reports in our data and fell in the first trading session after it; its latest report, on August 5, 2026, came in 3.37% above the estimate and the stock moved -4.81% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
MELI AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 32.5, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 32.5 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of MELI
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
MELI is in a downtrend, with the price below both of its main averages. At $1,668.72, the stock trades 10.08% below its 50-day average of $1,855.81 and 8.45% below its 200-day average of $1,822.65, so both averages lie overhead. The price sits at 19% of its 52-week range and is 11.62% above the 52-week low of $1,495.00. The 50-day average is still 1.82% above the 200-day average.
On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 32.5, in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, with the MACD line negative. The recent returns all show a loss, with the price down 8.30% over the past three months, 9.27% over the past six months and 22.78% over the past year. The price fell 7.81% in the last session on volume 311.2% above its average.
Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›
The August 5, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 3.37%, and the share price fell 4.81% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, August 5, 2026Rating reaffirmed ›
Citigroup kept its Neutral rating on October 13, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Citigroup, October 13, 2026
- The two closest levels deserve attention: the 20-day EMA at $1,821.19 sits above the price, while the 52-week low at $1,495.00 sits below it.
- With the 14-day RSI at 32.5, the momentum reading is bearish and the MACD line is negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
- MELI beat estimates in 1 of the 4 reports in our data, and after the August 5, 2026 report the share price dropped 4.81% in the first session.
The downtrend stays in place while MELI is below both its 50-day average at $1,855.81 and its 200-day average at $1,822.65; a close back above the 200-day would be the first step of a repair. The 20-day EMA at $1,821.19 is the first hurdle overhead.
The next level below the price is the 52-week low at $1,495.00. With the RSI in the bearish band, momentum does not favour a fast rebound.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for MELI, from its daily closes.
As of October 26, 2026, with MELI at $1,668.72, its 14-day RSI is 32.5 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $1,855.81 and its 200-day is $1,822.65.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 26, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What MELI moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 26, 2026, MELI's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.35 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.31 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.20 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.06 with gold (XAU).
MELI price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
20 of 26 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $2,250.00 is 34.8% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
20 of 26 rate it a buy now, against 20 of 24 three months ago.
MELI Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $1,668.72, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive |
| Sep 3, 2026 | BTIG | Reiterates | Buy |
| Aug 11, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight |
As of October 26, 2026, 26 Wall Street analysts cover MELI: 20 rate it a buy or strong buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $1,750.00 to $2,800.00. The median MELI price target is $2,250.00, 34.8% above the price of $1,668.72.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
MELI trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
MELI trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from MELI's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much MELI tends to move, against the market and on its own.
MELI price history and drawdowns
MELI's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.65% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 68.1%, from January 2021 to June 2022, regained by August 2024.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
76% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $98,807, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
MELI Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 26, 2026, MELI's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -68.1% (January 2021 to June 2022); it regained that peak by August 2024, 26 months after the low, and 76% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into MELI in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: MELI beat the S&P 500 over this period: $98,807 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in MELI in October 2016 would be worth about $98,807 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to MELI, and which have not.
Strongest month, January: an average of +10.70%, up in 9 of 10 years.
Weakest month, October: an average of -4.26%, up in 3 of 9 years.
This month, October: has averaged -4.26%, up in 3 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, MELI's strongest calendar month has been January (average +10.70%, up in 9 of 10 years) and its weakest October (average -4.26%, up in 3 of 9 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
MELI stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in MELI, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in MELI today could grow to about $15,169 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $53,008 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $4,341. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MELI Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $2,531 for MELI by 2030 in the base case, from $1,669 today (1.5x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $724. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MELI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $991 | $1,852 | $3,462 | |
| 2028 | $848 | $2,055 | $4,978 | |
| 2029 | $772 | $2,281 | $6,740 | |
| 2030 | $724 | $2,531 | $8,846 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of MELI's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. MELI is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. How the simulation works
MELI insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
MELI insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: Insiders bought $1.3M on the open market and sold $2.3M.
As of October 26, 2026, MELI insiders reported 3 open-market sales worth $2.3M and 3 open-market purchases worth $1.3M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Alejandro Nicolas Aguzin
Director
|
Grant | 94 | - |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Martin R Lawson
Director
|
Grant | 94 | - |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Richard A Sanders
Director
|
Grant | 94 | - |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Marcelo Melamud
Officer
|
Buy | 124 | $200.0K |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Stelleo Passos Tolda
Director
|
Grant | 250 | - |
| May 22, 2026 | Alejandro Nicolas Aguzin
Director
|
Buy | 600 | $993.6K |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Marcelo Melamud
Officer
|
Buy | 57 | $100.1K |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Henrique Vasoncelos Dubugras
Director
|
Sell | 845 | $1.7M |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Emiliano Calemzuk
Director
|
Sell | 45 | $91.2K |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Stelleo Passos Tolda
Director
|
Sell | 246 | $503.8K |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Alejandro Nicolas Aguzin
Director
|
Grant | 64 | - |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Emiliano Calemzuk
Director
|
Grant | 64 | - |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Martin R Lawson
Director
|
Grant | 64 | - |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Richard A Sanders
Director
|
Grant | 64 | - |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Stelleo Passos Tolda
Director
|
Grant | 8 | - |
Source: TwelveData, from reported insider filings
MELI stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 26, 2026.