Stock·NYSE·Consumer Defensive
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
- Market cap
- $37.69B
- P/E
- 21.43
- Dividend yield
- 2.65%
- Street target
- $82.50median of 11 analysts
- 52-week range
- $55.58 $88.75
ADM stock forecast today
Where ADM stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
ADM at a glance
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM): Hold, 52/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($76.31 and $82.16).
- Earnings ADM beat estimates in 6 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after every one of them.
- Insiders Insiders sold $10.1M and bought $487K over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 21.4 against 24.2 for the Consumer Defensive sector: broadly in line with peers (-11%).
Figures as of October 27, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Hold, with a model score of 52/100.
The earnings record lifts the score most: it beat estimates in 6 of its last 8 reports and the latest report beat the estimate by 27.78%. Momentum holds it back most: the 14-day RSI of 38.2 is in the bearish zone and the MACD line is negative. The trend is mixed: ADM trades 4.81% below its 50-day average of $82.16 and 2.49% above its 200-day average of $76.31. Over the past year the price rose 26.27%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from ADM's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
ADM stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
3/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $78.21 is 4.8% below the 50-day simple moving average of $82.16.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 2.5% above the 200-day simple moving average of $76.31.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($82.16) is 7.7% above the 200-day average ($76.31), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 68% of its 52-week range, between $55.58 and $88.75.
ADM share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far ADM has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where ADM sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
ADM fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
5/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 21.43 is 11.4% below the Consumer Defensive median of 24.2.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.46 is 79.1% below the sector median of 2.2.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $1.8B on revenue of $82.1B, a net margin of 2.2%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
ADM beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 2.65%, or $2.07 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for ADM.
As of October 27, 2026, ADM trades at $78.21, with a market value of $37.69B, a P/E ratio of 21.43 and a dividend yield of 2.65%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of ADM's valuation, growth and risks.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) trades on a trailing P/E of 21.43, which is 11.4% below the Consumer Defensive median of 24.2. The peer comparison on this page calls that broadly in line with peers. On sales, ADM changes hands at 0.46 times, 79.1% below the sector median of 2.2. The company's market capitalisation is $37.7B, and its trailing earnings stand at $3.65 a share.
With revenue growth of 7.20%, ADM is 1.9 percentage points faster than the sector median of 5.3%. The business converts sales into profit at a net margin of 2.16% and an operating margin of 4.01%. It generates a return on equity of 7.64%, below the sector median of 19.7%. The balance sheet and payout round out the picture, with debt-to-equity of 0.39 and a trailing dividend yield of 2.65% ($2.07 a share a year).
ADM reported EPS of $1.84 for the August 4, 2026 report, against an estimate of $1.44, a beat of 27.78%. The share price nonetheless dropped 2.87% in the first session after the report.
Over its last 8 reports, ADM topped the estimate 6 times, yet the stock fell in the first session after every one of those 6 beats. Looking ahead, analysts expect EPS of $5.53 this fiscal year (growth of 61.2%) and $5.67 the year after (growth of 2.6%).
Normal swings for ADM run at about 1.63% a day; measured against the S&P 500, its beta is 0.63. Insiders sold $10.1M over the last 18 months and bought $487K, though sales of this kind are often planned in advance and say less than purchases would.
ADM against the Consumer Defensive sector
How ADM compares with the median Consumer Defensive stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-11% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
Return vs SPY: Since May 15, 2025, ADM has gained 60.1% against a gain of 30.4% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
ADM and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much ADM sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue fell 6.2% in FY2025 to $80.3B, from $85.5B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 1.3% in FY2025, down from 2.1% the year before.
Profitable: ADM earned $1.1B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did ADM beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: ADM beat the analyst estimate in 6 of the last 8 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 6 of those 6 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026after close | $1.44 | $1.84 | +27.78% | -2.87% | +0.74% |
| May 5, 2026after close | $0.66 | $0.71 | +7.58% | -1.48% | +1.94% |
| Feb 3, 2026after close | $0.80 | $0.87 | +8.75% | -0.07% | +1.83% |
| Nov 4, 2025after close | $0.85 | $0.92 | +8.24% | -6.37% | -4.14% |
| Aug 5, 2025after close | $0.80 | $0.93 | +16.25% | -1.54% | +1.63% |
| May 6, 2025after close | $0.67 | $0.70 | +4.48% | -0.91% | +4.90% |
| Feb 4, 2025after close | $1.15 | $1.14 | -0.87% | -2.19% | -2.21% |
| Nov 4, 2024after close | $1.25 | $1.09 | -12.80% | -5.97% | -5.32% |
As of October 27, 2026, ADM has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 6 of those beats; its latest report, on August 4, 2026, came in 27.78% above the estimate and the stock moved -2.87% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
ADM AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 38.2, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 38.2 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of ADM
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
ADM shows a mixed trend. At $78.21, the stock sits 4.81% below its 50-day average of $82.16 yet 2.49% above its 200-day average of $76.31. The 50-day average is 7.67% above the 200-day, but the price has slipped beneath the shorter average. Inside its 52-week range of $55.58 to $88.75, the price stands at 68%, and it is 11.88% below the high.
A recent pullback sits inside a stronger longer record: the price fell 3.59% over the past month, fell 5.97% over the past three months and rose 26.27% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 38.2 is in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, and the MACD line is negative.
Analyst upgrade ›
Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Equal-Weight from Underweight on August 5, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Morgan Stanley, August 5, 2026
Rating reaffirmed ›
JP Morgan kept its Underweight rating on October 12, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, JP Morgan, October 12, 2026
Earnings beat, but the stock fell ›
The August 4, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 27.78%, and the share price fell 2.87% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, August 4, 2026
- Keep an eye on the two nearest levels: the 20-day EMA at $80.83 sits above the price, and the 200-day SMA at $76.31 sits below it.
- The 14-day RSI reads 38.2, in the bearish zone, with the MACD line negative; readings above 70 or below 30 mark stretched momentum.
- After the August 4, 2026 report the share price fell 2.87% in the first session; ADM beat estimates in 6 of the last 8 reports.
The trend is mixed: ADM is above its 200-day average at $76.31 but below its 50-day average at $82.16. A close above the 50-day would turn both signals up, and a close below the 200-day would turn both down. The nearest levels are the 200-day SMA at $76.31 below and the 20-day EMA at $80.83 above.
Momentum, with the RSI in the bearish zone, still points lower.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for ADM, from its daily closes.
As of October 27, 2026, with ADM at $78.21, its 14-day RSI is 38.2 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $82.16 and its 200-day is $76.31.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 27, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What ADM moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 27, 2026, ADM's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.14 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.06 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), -0.05 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.04 with gold (XAU).
ADM price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
1/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
1 of 11 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 2 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $82.50 is 5.5% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
1 of 11 rate it a buy now, against 1 of 11 three months ago.
ADM Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Underweight |
| Aug 17, 2026 | UBS | Reiterates | Buy |
| Aug 5, 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight |
As of October 27, 2026, 11 Wall Street analysts cover ADM: 1 rate it a buy or strong buy, 8 a hold and 2 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $60.00 to $95.00. The median ADM price target is $82.50, 5.5% above the price of $78.21.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
ADM trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
ADM trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from ADM's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much ADM tends to move, against the market and on its own.
ADM price history and drawdowns
ADM's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
3/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.63% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 52.4%, from November 2022 to April 2025, regained by July 2026.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
59% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $24,397, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
ADM Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 27, 2026, ADM's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -52.4% (November 2022 to April 2025); it regained that peak by July 2026, 15 months after the low, and 59% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into ADM in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: ADM trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $24,397 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in ADM in October 2016 would be worth about $24,397 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to ADM, and which have not.
Strongest month, July: an average of +4.74%, up in 9 of 10 years.
Weakest month, June: an average of -0.94%, up in 6 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +2.59%, up in 5 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, ADM's strongest calendar month has been July (average +4.74%, up in 9 of 10 years) and its weakest June (average -0.94%, up in 6 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
ADM stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in ADM, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in ADM today could grow to about $12,756 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $25,874 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $6,289. The simulation models price only; at today's 2.65% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ADM Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $99.77 for ADM by 2030 in the base case, from $78.21 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $49.19. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ADM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $58.36 | $83.12 | $118 | |
| 2028 | $53.57 | $88.33 | $146 | |
| 2029 | $50.88 | $93.88 | $173 | |
| 2030 | $49.19 | $99.77 | $202 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of ADM's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
ADM insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
ADM insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: Insiders bought $487K on the open market and sold $10.1M.
As of October 27, 2026, ADM insiders reported 4 open-market sales worth $10.1M and 1 open-market purchase worth $487K over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jeffrey D Rowe
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 259.9K | - |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Christopher M Cuddy
Officer
|
Sell | 35.0K | $2.6M |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Ian R Pinner
Officer
|
Sell | 34.1K | $2.4M |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Gregory A Morris
Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $3.4M |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Jennifer L Weber
Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $1.7M |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Christopher M Cuddy
Officer
|
Grant | 23.0K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Regina Bynote Jones
Officer
|
Grant | 16.1K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Juan R Luciano
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 106.5K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Gregory A Morris
Officer
|
Grant | 19.0K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Carrie Ann Nichol
Officer
|
Grant | 7.6K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Monish D Patolawala
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 40.0K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Ian R Pinner
Officer
|
Grant | 17.8K | - |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Jennifer L Weber
Officer
|
Grant | 13.1K | - |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Juan R Luciano
Chief Executive Officer
|
Option | 581.1K | $19.3M |
| Feb 5, 2026 | David R. Mcatee II
Director
|
Buy | 7.5K | $486.7K |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Christopher M Cuddy
Officer
|
Grant | 14.3K | - |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Regina Bynote Jones
Officer
|
Grant | 10.9K | - |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Juan R Luciano
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 81.8K | - |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Gregory A Morris
Officer
|
Grant | 14.8K | - |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Ian R Pinner
Officer
|
Grant | 10.2K | - |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Jennifer L Weber
Officer
|
Grant | 9.2K | - |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Michael S Burke
Director
|
Grant | 4.8K | - |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Suzan F Harrison
Director
|
Grant | 4.8K | - |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Debra A Sandler
Director
|
Grant | 4.8K | - |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Lei Zhang Schlitz
Director
|
Grant | 4.8K | - |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Kelvin R Westbrook
Director
|
Grant | 7.6K | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
ADM stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 27, 2026.