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As of September 26, 2026, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) trades at $142.25. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $142.25, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $175.50 across 54 analysts. RSI at 48 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $137.95.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP)
Shopify Inc. NASDAQ
$142.25
-2.910 (-2.00%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
74 / 100
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is trading at $142.25, currently above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($137.95 and $129.93), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company's fundamentals are strong, with a profit margin of 14.53% and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, suggesting efficient operations and a healthy balance sheet. Analyst consensus is predominantly positive, with a median price target of $175.50, implying a 23.4% upside from the current price. The most compelling aspect of Shopify's profile is the extreme insider selling activity, with $1.4 billion in net purchases, signaling exceptional conviction from management and major shareholders like Tobias Albin Lutke. This level of buying activity provides a strong floor for the stock and suggests confidence in future growth. The company is also projected to continue its strong revenue growth, with current year estimates at 32.00% year-over-year.
SHOP Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$144.47
Day Range
$140.93 to $144.97
Prev Close
$145.16
Volume
5.99M
52-Week Range
$94.00 to $182.19
Market Cap
$184.59B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+183%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
SHOP Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, SHOP beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
SHOP Analysis
Company's Health
5/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+23.37% Upside
Median of 54 analysts (12-month)
$175.50
AI Technical Analysis
Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 5.99 million compared to the 50-day average of 11.68 million, a decrease of 48.7%. Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($137.95 and $129.93), as well as its 20-day exponential moving average, indicating an overall bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.7, which is in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The chart structure shows Shopify trading above key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $137.95 and the 200-day SMA at $129.93 acting as potential support levels. The RSI being neutral suggests room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a pullback. The MACD indicator is slightly positive, reinforcing the current bullish momentum.
ProTips
- The extreme insider accumulation of $1.4 billion in net purchases for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is a rare and powerful signal of management's conviction, providing significant downside support.
- Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is trading above its key moving averages (50-day, 200-day, and 20-day EMA), indicating positive short-to-medium term technical momentum.
- Given Shopify's premium valuation (P/E of 96.11 vs. sector median of 34.0), investors should monitor revenue growth closely to ensure it continues to justify the current stock price.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Extreme Insider Accumulation
Insiders have purchased $1.4 billion more than they sold, with Tobias Albin Lutke leading the buying. This signals exceptional conviction and provides strong support for the stock.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast 33.6% revenue growth for the current year and 28.3% for the next, indicating continued expansion in Shopify's e-commerce platform services.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Earnings Surprise
The most recent quarter (June 2026) showed an EPS beat of 5%, with actual EPS of $0.42 against an estimate of $0.40, accompanied by a 2.22% stock price increase.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Analyst Price Target Upside
The median analyst price target for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is $175.50, representing a 23.4% upside from the current price of $142.25.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
High Valuation Metrics
Shopify's P/E ratio of 96.11 and P/S ratio of 13.91 are significantly higher than sector medians, posing a risk if growth expectations are not met.
Source: Financial AnalysisMarket Outlook
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with analysts projecting a median price target of $175.50, representing a 23.4% upside from the current price. The company's strong revenue growth, projected at 33.6% for the current year and 28.3% for the next, combined with its strong profitability and minimal debt, provides a solid foundation for continued appreciation. Potential upside catalysts include continued market share gains in the e-commerce sector and successful expansion into new services. Conversely, a significant slowdown in revenue growth, increased competitive pressure, or a broader market downturn could challenge these optimistic projections. The extreme insider buying, however, suggests a strong conviction among those closest to the company regarding its future performance.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 184.59B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 96.11 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.48 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 182.19 |
| 52 Week Low | 94.00 |
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 96.11, which is significantly higher than the sector median of 34.0, indicating a premium valuation. However, its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 13.91 is also above the sector median of 7.5, but its strong revenue growth of 33.7% and a healthy profit margin of 14.53% help justify this premium. The company's Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 15.54%, exceeding the sector average of 13.4%. With a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, Shopify demonstrates exceptional financial health and minimal leverage risk. The company's ability to maintain strong profit margins and impressive revenue growth, coupled with its solid balance sheet, supports its current valuation despite the high P/E ratio. This suggests that investors are pricing in significant future growth potential.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $0.42 against an estimate of $0.40, resulting in a 5% positive surprise and a 2.22% stock price increase. This follows a mixed performance in prior quarters, including a significant miss in the quarter to March 2026 where EPS was -$0.02 against an estimate of $0.04. The company's earnings trajectory shows some volatility, but the latest quarter indicates a return to positive surprises and growth.
Key Risks
Despite strong insider buying and positive growth outlooks, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) faces valuation risk due to its high P/E ratio of 96.11 compared to the sector median of 34.0. Competition within the e-commerce platform space remains intense, with players like BigCommerce (BIGC) and Adobe Commerce (ADBE) continually innovating. Also, any slowdown in its projected revenue growth rate could lead to a significant re-rating of the stock.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 47.70 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.25 |
| SMA 50 | 137.95 |
| SMA 200 | 129.93 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($137.95) above the 200-day SMA ($129.93), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.58
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.55
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with SHOP? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
SHOP Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$139.41
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$142.25
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$132.37
MAX LOSS
-5.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (47.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$146.38
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$153.35
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$160.32
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
SHOP is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.37%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in SHOP in September 2016 would be worth about $329,282 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SHOP today could grow to about $51,393 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $389,897 and a bear case around $6,774. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
SHOP Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $274 for SHOP by 2030 in the base case, from $142 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $76.00. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SHOP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $88.28 | $168 | $318 |
| 2028 | $79.74 | $197 | $488 |
| 2029 | $76.61 | $232 | $705 |
| 2030 | $76.00 | $274 | $986 |
| 2031 | $76.95 | $322 | $1,351 |
| 2032 | $79.05 | $380 | $1,825 |
| 2033 | $82.11 | $447 | $2,438 |
| 2034 | $86.03 | $527 | $3,228 |
| 2035 | $90.78 | $621 | $4,244 |
| 2036 | $96.36 | $731 | $5,546 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SHOP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. SHOP is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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SHOP Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.0B
58 Transactions
Sold
$375.7M
320 Transactions
Insiders
18
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lutke (Tobias Albin)
Director of Issuer
|
Sell | 15.0K | $2.0M |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lutke (Tobias Albin)
Director of Issuer
|
Sell | 3.0K | $391.8K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Finkelstein (Harley Michael)
Senior Officer of Issuer
|
Sell | 3.0K | $396.5K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Finkelstein (Harley Michael)
Senior Officer of Issuer
|
Option | 3.0K | $139.7K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Finkelstein (Harley Michael)
Senior Officer of Issuer
|
Sell | 3.0K | $396.5K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Finkelstein (Harley Michael)
Senior Officer of Issuer
|
Option | 3.0K | $139.7K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Cheng Meservey (Lulu)
Director of Issuer
|
Sell | 5 | $647 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Cheng Meservey (Lulu)
Director of Issuer
|
Grant | 533 | - |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Hoffmeister (Jeff)
Senior Officer of Issuer
|
Sell | 11.6K | $1.5M |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Natale (Joe)
Director of Issuer
|
Sell | 452 | $58.6K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Shopify Inc. stock a buy right now?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is currently rated a Buy with a consensus score of 74 out of 100. The median analyst price target is $175.50, suggesting a 23.4% upside from the current price of $142.25. Extreme insider selling activity further supports a bullish outlook.
What is Shopify's projected revenue growth for the next year?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is projected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 28.3% for the next fiscal year, according to Wall Street estimates. This follows an expected 33.6% growth for the current year.
What are the key risks for Shopify Inc. stock?
Key risks for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) include its high valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly above the sector average, and intense competition in the e-commerce platform market. A deceleration in its strong revenue growth could also negatively impact the stock price.
How does Shopify's financial health compare to its peers?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) exhibits strong financial health with a profit margin of 14.53% and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, which is substantially lower than the sector median. Its Return on Equity (ROE) of 15.54% also surpasses the sector average of 13.4%.
What is the sentiment from Wall Street analysts regarding Shopify Inc.?
Wall Street sentiment for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is largely positive, with 54 analysts covering the stock. The consensus is 'Buy', supported by 11 'Strong Buy' ratings and 31 'Buy' ratings, against only 1 'Sell' rating.
What does the insider trading activity suggest for Shopify Inc.?
Insider trading activity for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) indicates extreme accumulation, with insiders purchasing $1.4 billion more than they sold. This significant net buying, led by Tobias Albin Lutke, is a strong signal of confidence in the company's future prospects.
What is Shopify's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) has a base case price projection of $273.79 for 2030, with a downside projection of $76 and an upside projection of $986.29. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.