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As of September 27, 2026, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) trades at $158.61. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $158.61, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $200.00 across 16 analysts. RSI at 59 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $117.66.
Strategy Inc. (MSTR)
Strategy Inc. NASDAQ
$158.61
-3.000 (-1.86%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
77 / 100
Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is trading at $158.61, with its stock performance largely mirroring its substantial Bitcoin treasury. The company's software business is secondary to its role as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $200, suggesting a 26.1% upside. However, recent earnings reports have shown significant negative EPS, with the latest quarter to June 2026 reporting a surprise of -896.42% and a subsequent stock price drop of 4.56%. This highlights the volatility inherent in MSTR's business model, which is heavily tied to the price fluctuations of Bitcoin. Despite the negative EPS and a substantial amount of insider selling totaling $150.3 million against $779.4 thousand in purchases, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($117.66 and $136.54). The company's profit margin is reported at 68.69%, but this is overshadowed by a negative operating margin of -6,808.11% and a highly negative EPS of -99.16. The price-to-sales ratio stands at a high 126.44, significantly above the sector median of 7.5, indicating a substantial premium. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.15, which is in line with the sector median.
MSTR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$162.84
Day Range
$156.78 to $162.86
Prev Close
$161.61
Volume
18.46M
52-Week Range
$81.81 to $365.21
Market Cap
$63.01B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-84%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
MSTR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Earnings data unavailable. The earnings data appears to be incomplete or contains invalid values.
MSTR Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+26.10% Upside
Median of 16 analysts (12-month)
$200.00
AI Technical Analysis
Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($117.66 and $136.54), indicating a generally positive short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is at 59.24, suggesting neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD is positive at 12.29, further supporting the current upward trend. Key support levels are indicated by the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, while the current price action suggests potential resistance near previous highs. Volume on the latest trading day was 18.46 million, below the average of 25.97 million, suggesting a slight decrease in trading conviction. The stock's technicals are mixed, with moving averages pointing upwards but RSI in neutral territory, indicating a need for further confirmation of sustained upward momentum.
ProTips
- Monitor Bitcoin's price action closely, as MSTR's stock performance is highly correlated with its Bitcoin treasury value.
- The significant insider selling totaling over $150 million warrants close attention as a potential indicator of management's short-term outlook.
- Given the high valuation and volatility, consider employing risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders at least 1.5x the daily volatility away from your entry price.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Bitcoin Price Momentum
A sustained upward trend in Bitcoin's price would likely drive MSTR's stock higher, given its significant corporate holdings.
Source: Market TrendBearish
Significant Insider Selling
Over $150 million in insider sales have been reported, indicating potential concerns among management regarding the stock's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Negative EPS and Earnings Misses
Consistent negative EPS surprises, including a -896.42% miss in the latest quarter, highlight ongoing profitability challenges.
Source: Earnings ReportsNeutral
Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Ongoing analyst ratings and price target adjustments will influence investor sentiment and stock movement.
Source: Analyst RatingsMarket Outlook
Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is expected to continue trading as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, with its price heavily influenced by cryptocurrency market dynamics. The current consensus 'Buy' rating and a median analyst target price of $200 suggest potential upside, driven by the expectation of Bitcoin's appreciation and continued adoption of its corporate Bitcoin strategy. The company's forward revenue growth estimates are modest, with current year revenue projected at $501.2 million, a 5.00% increase year-over-year. Key upside catalysts would include a significant rise in Bitcoin's price and positive developments in MSTR's software division. Conversely, a sharp decline in Bitcoin's value, increased regulatory scrutiny on crypto assets, or continued substantial insider selling could pressure the stock. The company's negative EPS and high valuation multiples remain significant risks that could be exacerbated by any downturn in the cryptocurrency market.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 63.01B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -99.16 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 365.21 |
| 52 Week Low | 81.81 |
Strategy Inc. (MSTR) exhibits a highly leveraged valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 126.44, significantly exceeding the sector median of 7.5. This premium is largely attributable to its substantial Bitcoin holdings rather than its software operations. While the company reports a strong net profit margin of 68.69%, this is juxtaposed with a significantly negative operating margin of -6,808.11% and a negative EPS of -99.16, indicating significant operational losses. The company's balance sheet appears relatively healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, below the sector median of 0.15. However, the negative earnings and high price-to-sales ratio suggest that the stock's valuation is primarily driven by speculation on Bitcoin's future performance rather than traditional software business fundamentals. The revenue growth of 6.9% is modest compared to the sector average of 24.1%.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Strategy Inc. (MSTR) has reported consistently negative EPS surprises in recent quarters. The most recent quarter to June 2026 saw an EPS actual of -24.45 against an estimate of 3.07, a surprise of -896.42%, leading to a 4.56% price drop. Prior quarters also showed significant misses, including -38.25 in the quarter to March 2026 and -42.93 in the quarter to December 2025. While the company's revenue growth has been positive, the persistent negative EPS and substantial misses indicate significant challenges in profitability.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is its heavy reliance on Bitcoin price movements, making it a leveraged act on cryptocurrency volatility. Significant insider selling, with total sales exceeding $150 million, raises concerns about management's short-term confidence despite a 'Buy' consensus from Wall Street. Also, the company's negative EPS and high valuation multiples, such as a price-to-sales ratio of 126.44, present a substantial risk if Bitcoin's price falters or if the market re-evaluates its premium valuation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 59.24 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 12.29 |
| SMA 50 | 117.66 |
| SMA 200 | 136.54 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.48
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.50
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.81
Strong correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.21
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MSTR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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MSTR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$155.44
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$158.61
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$140.05
MAX LOSS
-9.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (59.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$163.21
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$170.98
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$178.75
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
MSTR is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 6.60%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MSTR in September 2016 would be worth about $93,819 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MSTR today could grow to about $38,634 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $293,102 and a bear case around $5,092. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MSTR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $272 for MSTR by 2030 in the base case, from $159 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $75.60. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MSTR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $95.66 | $182 | $345 |
| 2028 | $83.98 | $208 | $514 |
| 2029 | $78.41 | $238 | $722 |
| 2030 | $75.60 | $272 | $981 |
| 2031 | $74.39 | $312 | $1,306 |
| 2032 | $74.27 | $357 | $1,715 |
| 2033 | $74.97 | $409 | $2,226 |
| 2034 | $76.34 | $468 | $2,864 |
| 2035 | $78.29 | $535 | $3,660 |
| 2036 | $80.77 | $613 | $4,649 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MSTR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. MSTR is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MSTR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$779.4K
1 Transactions
Sold
$150.3M
70 Transactions
Insiders
11
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.1M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2021 | RICKERTSEN CARL JOHN
Director
|
Sell | 40.0K | $31.9M |
| Jul 10, 2025 | SHAO WEI-MING
General Counsel
|
Sell | 52.5K | $21.4M |
| Jul 11, 2025 | MONTGOMERY JEANINE J.
Officer
|
Sell | 43.8K | $18.8M |
| Nov 24, 2020 | LE PHONG Q
President
|
Sell | 65.0K | $15.5M |
| Nov 6, 2024 | MONTGOMERY JEANINE J.
Officer
|
Sell | 56.3K | $14.5M |
| Nov 11, 2024 | RECHAN LESLIE JOSEPH
Director
|
Sell | 40.0K | $12.0M |
| Nov 13, 2024 | GRAHAM STEPHEN X
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $11.4M |
| Jun 5, 2026 | LE PHONG QUOC
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 93.7K | $11.1M |
| Nov 27, 2020 | LE PHONG Q
President
|
Sell | 40.0K | $10.8M |
| Oct 7, 2025 | SHAO WEI-MING
General Counsel
|
Sell | 30.0K | $10.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is MSTR's stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Strategy Inc.'s (MSTR) base case price projection for 2030 is $272.34, with a downside scenario of $75.60 and an upside scenario of $981.09. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guarantees.
Is MSTR stock a buy right now?
Wall Street analysts have a consensus 'Buy' rating on MSTR, with a median price target of $200, implying a 26.1% upside from the current price of $158.61. However, significant insider selling and negative EPS warrant caution.
What are the biggest risks facing Strategy Inc. (MSTR)?
The primary risks for MSTR include its high correlation to Bitcoin's price volatility, substantial insider selling totaling over $150 million, and a highly leveraged valuation with a price-to-sales ratio of 126.44.
How is MSTR's recent earnings performance?
MSTR has reported consistently negative EPS surprises, with the latest quarter to June 2026 missing estimates by -896.42%. This trend suggests ongoing profitability challenges despite positive revenue growth.
What is the technical outlook for MSTR stock?
MSTR is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($117.66 and $136.54), indicating a positive trend. The RSI is neutral at 59.24, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD is positive.
How does MSTR's valuation compare to its sector peers?
MSTR's price-to-sales ratio of 126.44 is significantly higher than the sector median of 7.5, reflecting a substantial premium likely driven by its Bitcoin holdings rather than its software business.
What is the significance of insider selling in MSTR stock?
Insiders have been net sellers, with total sales reaching $150.3 million against $779.4 thousand in purchases. This heavy selling pressure is a key factor to monitor, despite the overall 'Buy' consensus from Wall Street analysts.