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As of September 27, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) trades at $941.65. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $1,168.00, 24.0% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $1,168.00 across 26 analysts. RSI at 56 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $859.07.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)
Lumentum Holdings Inc. NASDAQ
$941.65
12.61 (1.36%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
76 / 100
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is trading at $941.65, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($859.07 and $729.23), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company's revenue growth has been exceptional, exceeding 100% year-over-year, far surpassing sector averages. Analysts are largely optimistic, with a consensus rating of Buy and a median price target of $1168, suggesting a 24% upside potential. Despite the positive technical and fundamental outlook, significant insider selling totaling $155.2 million warrants attention. However, the company's strong revenue growth and the positive analyst sentiment, coupled with a healthy profit margin of 27.95%, suggest that the market may be looking past the insider activity. The current price-to-sales ratio of 28.02 is high relative to the sector, but this is supported by the company's aggressive growth trajectory.
LITE Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$936.03
Day Range
$913.29 to $962.88
Prev Close
$929.04
Volume
3.85M
52-Week Range
$144.52 to $1,085.68
Market Cap
$84.47B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+385%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
LITE Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, LITE beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
LITE Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+24.04% Upside
Median of 26 analysts (12-month)
$1,168.00
AI Technical Analysis
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($859.07 and $729.23), signaling an uptrend. The RSI is at 56.41, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD at 18.91 suggests positive underlying strength. The stock is also trading above its 20-day EMA at $912.82. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA, while resistance is less defined given the stock's upward trajectory. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 3.85 million compared to an average of 4.83 million, suggesting a slight cooling in trading activity. The overall chart structure points to continued upward potential, provided key support levels hold.
ProTips
- Monitor insider selling closely; while the current trend is heavily bearish, a change in direction could signal renewed confidence.
- Given the stock is trading above key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMA), consider using these levels as potential support for entry points or stop-loss placements.
- The company's aggressive growth strategy and high valuation mean that any deceleration in revenue growth could lead to a sharp correction; maintain a vigilant watch on forward guidance.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Continued EPS Beats Driving Positive Price Action
Lumentum Holdings Inc. has consistently exceeded analyst EPS estimates, most recently reporting $3.23 vs $2.97 for the quarter ending June 2026, which drove a 13.63% stock price increase.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Strong Analyst Conviction and Price Targets
With a consensus rating of Buy and a median price target of $1168 from 26 analysts, Lumentum Holdings Inc. has significant analyst support suggesting a 24% upside potential.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold approximately $155.2 million in shares with no reported purchases, indicating a strong net selling signal that could signal concerns about future valuation or performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Negative Profitability Metrics
Despite strong revenue growth, Lumentum Holdings Inc. reports a negative net profit margin of -230.10% and a return on equity of -240.03%, posing a risk if growth falters.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory over the next 6-12 months, driven by its exceptional revenue expansion and positive analyst sentiment. The median analyst price target of $1168 suggests a potential upside of 24% from the current price of $941.65. The company's ability to maintain its high revenue growth rates, coupled with improving profitability, will be key to realizing this target. Potential upside catalysts include continued strong earnings beats and further market share gains in the communication equipment sector. Conversely, a slowdown in revenue growth, persistent negative profitability, or a shift in analyst sentiment due to ongoing insider selling could pressure the stock. The high valuation multiples also mean the stock is vulnerable to market corrections or sector-wide downturns.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 84.47B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -92.94 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 1,085.68 |
| 52 Week Low | 144.52 |
Lumentum Holdings Inc. exhibits exceptional revenue growth of 109.3%, significantly outpacing the sector median of 24.1%. While its price-to-sales ratio of 28.02 is elevated compared to the sector average of 7.5, this is justifiable given the company's rapid expansion. The company's operating margin stands at a healthy 27.95%, though its net profit margin is negative at -230.10% due to significant expenses, and its return on equity is -240.03%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36 is well within sector averages, indicating a manageable debt load. Despite the negative profitability metrics, the strong revenue growth and positive outlook from analysts suggest that investors are prioritizing top-line expansion and future potential over current profitability. The company's ability to sustain this growth will be critical for its valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Lumentum Holdings Inc. has demonstrated a consistent pattern of beating analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters. For the quarter ending June 2026, the company reported an EPS of $3.23, surpassing the estimate of $2.97 by 8.75%, leading to a significant price increase of 13.63%. This follows a similar beat in the prior quarter. While the quarter ending March 2026 saw a slight miss on price reaction, the overall trend indicates strong operational performance relative to expectations.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Lumentum Holdings Inc. is the substantial insider selling, with over $155 million in shares disposed of recently, indicating potential concerns among management regarding future performance or valuation. Additionally, the company's negative net profit margin and return on equity, despite strong revenue growth, highlight profitability challenges that could pressure the stock if growth decelerates. The elevated price-to-sales ratio of 28.02 also presents a valuation risk if the company fails to meet its aggressive growth targets.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 56.41 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 18.91 |
| SMA 50 | 859.07 |
| SMA 200 | 729.23 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($859.07) above the 200-day SMA ($729.23), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.51
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.58
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.14
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with LITE? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
LITE Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$922.82
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$941.65
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$847.70
MAX LOSS
-8.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (56.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$968.96
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$1,015.10
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$1,061.24
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
LITE is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 5.12%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 27, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in LITE in September 2016 would be worth about $225,060 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in LITE today could grow to about $48,144 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $365,249 and a bear case around $6,346. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
LITE Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,766 for LITE by 2030 in the base case, from $942 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $490. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on LITE's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $581 | $1,102 | $2,091 |
| 2028 | $521 | $1,289 | $3,191 |
| 2029 | $497 | $1,509 | $4,578 |
| 2030 | $490 | $1,766 | $6,361 |
| 2031 | $493 | $2,066 | $8,659 |
| 2032 | $503 | $2,418 | $11,617 |
| 2033 | $519 | $2,829 | $15,416 |
| 2034 | $540 | $3,311 | $20,280 |
| 2035 | $567 | $3,874 | $26,489 |
| 2036 | $598 | $4,533 | $34,394 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using LITE's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. LITE is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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LITE Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$155.2M
59 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.6M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | RETORT VINCENT D
Officer
|
Sell | 38.7K | $33.0M |
| Feb 12, 2026 | RETORT VINCENT D
Officer
|
Sell | 45.0K | $26.6M |
| May 11, 2026 | LILLIE BRIAN J
Director
|
Sell | 12.0K | $11.7M |
| Aug 25, 2026 | KIM JAE
General Counsel
|
Sell | 12.0K | $10.2M |
| May 21, 2026 | SMALL IAN SEYMOUR
Director
|
Sell | 5.0K | $4.3M |
| Nov 25, 2024 | RETORT VINCENT
Officer
|
Sell | 41.7K | $3.7M |
| Feb 27, 2026 | ALI WAJID
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 5.3K | $3.7M |
| May 29, 2026 | HARRIS ISAAC HOSOJIRO
Director
|
Sell | 4.0K | $3.4M |
| Nov 25, 2019 | RETORT VINCENT
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 46.9K | $3.3M |
| May 8, 2026 | SMALL IAN SEYMOUR
Director
|
Sell | 3.5K | $3.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $1765.65 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $490.13, while the upside projection reaches $6360.59. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. stock a buy right now?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is rated a Buy with a consensus score of 76 out of 100. Analysts have a median price target of $1168, offering a 24% upside from the current price of $941.65.
What are the key technical indicators for Lumentum Holdings Inc. stock?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($859.07 and $729.23), indicating a positive trend. The RSI is neutral at 56.41, and the MACD is positive at 18.91, suggesting underlying strength.
How does Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s revenue growth compare to its sector?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. exhibits exceptional revenue growth of 109.3%, significantly outpacing the Technology sector median of 24.1%.
What is the sentiment from Wall Street analysts regarding Lumentum Holdings Inc.?
Wall Street analysts maintain a positive outlook on Lumentum Holdings Inc., with a consensus rating of Buy. Out of 26 analysts, 5 rate it Strong Buy, 17 rate it Buy, and 4 rate it Hold, contributing to a Wall Street score of 76 out of 100.
What are the main risks facing Lumentum Holdings Inc.?
Significant insider selling totaling $155.2 million, negative net profit margins, and an elevated price-to-sales ratio of 28.02 represent key risks for Lumentum Holdings Inc. Investors should monitor these factors closely.
How has Lumentum Holdings Inc. performed in recent earnings reports?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. has consistently beaten analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters. For the quarter ending June 2026, EPS was $3.23 against an estimate of $2.97, resulting in a price increase of 13.63%.
What is the institutional and insider activity for Lumentum Holdings Inc.?
Insiders have been net sellers, with $155.2 million in sales versus no reported purchases, indicating heavy selling pressure. There are no significant institutional buyers noted.