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As of October 11, 2026, Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) trades at $125.14. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $120.00, 4.1% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $120.00 across 28 analysts. RSI at 67 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $101.29.
Rubrik Inc. (RBRK)
Rubrik Inc. NYSE
$125.14
4.250 (3.52%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
78 / 100
Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) is trading at $125.14, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($101.29 and $73.02), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 37.9%, significantly outpacing the sector median of 24.1%. This growth is supported by strong forward estimates, with current year revenue growth projected at 28.00% and next year at 21.00%. Despite these positive fundamental indicators, the stock faces headwinds from significant insider selling, with $419.9M in total sales versus $502K in total purchases over the last reported period. This heavy sell signal from insiders warrants caution. Also, the current stock price of $125.14 has surpassed the median analyst price target of $120.00, suggesting limited upside from current levels according to Wall Street consensus.
RBRK Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$121.29
Day Range
$119.36 to $125.21
Prev Close
$120.89
Volume
2.52M
52-Week Range
$42.25 to $127.90
Market Cap
$25.76B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Technology)
Performance vs XLK
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-20% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
RBRK Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 1 quarters, RBRK beat estimates 1 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
RBRK Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-4.11% Downside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$120.00
AI Technical Analysis
Rubrik Inc. is currently trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $101.29 and its 200-day SMA of $73.02, indicating an overall bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66.54, classified as bullish momentum, suggesting strong buying interest without being overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive at 7.14, further supporting the bullish sentiment. Key support levels are established around the 50-day SMA ($101.29) and the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $114.14. Resistance is less clearly defined given the upward momentum, but the current price action suggests continued upward pressure. Volume has been slightly below average recently, which could indicate a temporary pause in the strong uptrend, but does not negate the bullish technical signals.
ProTips
- Significant insider selling totaling $244.9 million warrants close monitoring as it may signal a lack of confidence from management.
- The stock's current price has surpassed the median analyst target price of $120.00, suggesting limited immediate upside potential.
- Given the premium valuation (P/S of 16.70 vs. sector median of 7.5), consider position sizing carefully and be prepared for potential volatility if growth expectations are not met.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Momentum
Rubrik Inc. reported 37.9% revenue growth, exceeding the sector median, and maintains strong forward estimates for continued expansion.
Source: Company FilingsBullish
Consistent Earnings Beats
The company has consistently surpassed EPS estimates, most recently with a 400% surprise in the quarter to September 2026, indicating operational efficiency.
Source: Company FilingsBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $244.9 million worth of stock versus only $502.2 thousand in purchases, indicating potential concerns about future stock performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Exceeded Median Analyst Price Target
The current stock price of $125.14 is above the median Wall Street price target of $120.00, suggesting limited upside from current levels.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsMarket Outlook
Rubrik Inc. is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with current year revenue projected to increase by 28.00% and next year by 21.00%. The company's strong revenue growth and consistent earnings beats, coupled with bullish technical indicators, suggest potential for further appreciation. The base case scenario for the stock price in 2030 is $230.09, with a Monte Carlo simulation indicating an upside potential to $828.87. However, the outlook is tempered by significant insider selling and a premium valuation. A substantial downside risk exists, with a projected price of $63.87 in 2030, driven by factors such as a failure to meet aggressive growth expectations or a broader market downturn. Investors should monitor insider activity closely and consider the high valuation relative to current profitability.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 25.76B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -1.27 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 127.90 |
| 52 Week Low | 42.25 |
Rubrik Inc. exhibits strong revenue growth at 37.9%, significantly exceeding the sector median of 24.1%. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 16.70, which is considerably higher than the sector median of 7.5, indicating a premium valuation. The company's profit margin is negative at -16.50%, and its operating margin is -16.83%, reflecting ongoing investment and a lack of profitability at this stage. Despite the negative profitability, the company shows a remarkable return on equity of 67.14%, though this is likely influenced by its negative earnings and potentially a small equity base relative to its market capitalization. The debt-to-equity ratio is a very low -0.02, suggesting minimal leverage and a strong balance sheet. The high price-to-sales ratio, coupled with negative earnings, implies that investors are pricing in substantial future growth.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Rubrik Inc. has demonstrated significant earnings beats in its recent quarters, with the quarter to September 2026 reporting an actual EPS of $0.20 against an estimate of $0.04, a 400% surprise. This follows a pattern of strong positive surprises, including a 633.33% beat in the quarter to June 2026. Despite these beats, the stock experienced price declines following the last two earnings reports, suggesting that market expectations may be very high or that the beats are not translating into sustained positive sentiment. Revenue growth has been consistently strong, with the current quarter's revenue growth estimated at +23.00% year-over-year, and current year revenue growth projected at +28.00%. The company's forward earnings estimates show a significant rebound, with next year's EPS expected to grow by 52.5%.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Rubrik Inc. is the heavy insider selling, with over $244 million in sales compared to minimal purchases, signaling potential concerns among management regarding future stock performance. Additionally, the stock is trading at a premium valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 16.70 compared to the sector median of 7.5, making it vulnerable to any slowdown in growth or negative market sentiment. Finally, the current stock price has already surpassed the median Wall Street price target, indicating limited upside potential from current levels.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 66.54 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 7.14 |
| SMA 50 | 101.29 |
| SMA 200 | 73.02 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($101.29) above the 200-day SMA ($73.02), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.45
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.24
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with RBRK? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
RBRK Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$122.64
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$125.14
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$113.62
MAX LOSS
-7.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (66.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$128.77
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$134.90
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$141.03
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
RBRK is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.88%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in RBRK in April 2024 would be worth about $33,822 today, compared with about $15,463 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in RBRK today could grow to about $45,841 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $347,777 and a bear case around $6,042. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
RBRK Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $230 for RBRK by 2030 in the base case, from $125 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $63.87. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on RBRK's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $76.78 | $146 | $277 |
| 2028 | $68.56 | $170 | $420 |
| 2029 | $65.13 | $198 | $600 |
| 2030 | $63.87 | $230 | $829 |
| 2031 | $63.93 | $268 | $1,123 |
| 2032 | $64.93 | $312 | $1,499 |
| 2033 | $66.68 | $363 | $1,980 |
| 2034 | $69.07 | $423 | $2,591 |
| 2035 | $72.05 | $493 | $3,368 |
| 2036 | $75.61 | $574 | $4,352 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using RBRK's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. RBRK is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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RBRK Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$502.2K
1 Transactions
Sold
$244.9M
92 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.6M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2024 | SINHA BIPUL
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 1.2M | $81.4M |
| Jun 13, 2025 | SALEM ENRIQUE T
Director
|
Sell | 700.0K | $63.8M |
| Sep 12, 2025 | SINHA BIPUL
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 615.8K | $46.6M |
| Jun 3, 2026 | NITHRAKASHYAP ARVIND
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 225.1K | $18.9M |
| Jan 14, 2025 | NITHRAKASHYAP ARVIND
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 227.6K | $14.8M |
| Jun 5, 2025 | NITHRAKASHYAP ARVIND
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 97.4K | $9.6M |
| Dec 15, 2025 | MHATRE RAVI
Director
|
Sell | 107.0K | $8.8M |
| May 7, 2025 | NITHRAKASHYAP ARVIND
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 97.5K | $7.3M |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NITHRAKASHYAP ARVIND
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 97.5K | $7.1M |
| Jan 8, 2025 | NITHRAKASHYAP ARVIND
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 97.5K | $6.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Rubrik Inc. stock a buy right now?
Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) is currently rated as a Buy with a consensus score of 78. The stock is trading above key moving averages and shows strong revenue growth. However, the median analyst price target of $120.00 is below the current price of $125.14, and significant insider selling presents a notable risk.
What is Rubrik Inc.'s revenue growth rate?
Rubrik Inc. reported a revenue growth rate of 37.9%. The sector median revenue growth is 24.1%. Current year revenue growth is projected to be 28.00%, with next year's growth estimated at 21.00%.
What are the recent earnings results for Rubrik Inc.?
Rubrik Inc. has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters. For the quarter to September 2026, EPS actual was $0.20 versus an estimate of $0.04, a 400% surprise. Despite these beats, the stock saw a -13.05% price change following this report.
What is Rubrik Inc.'s valuation compared to its sector?
Rubrik Inc. trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 16.70, which is significantly higher than the sector median of 7.5. Its profit margin is negative at -16.50%, while the sector median is 13.4%.
What are the key risks facing Rubrik Inc.?
The primary risks for Rubrik Inc. include heavy insider selling totaling $244.9 million, a premium valuation with a high price-to-sales ratio, and the current stock price exceeding the median Wall Street price target, suggesting limited near-term upside.
What is the outlook for Rubrik Inc.'s stock price in 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Rubrik Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $230.09 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $63.87, and the upside projection is $828.87. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How does Rubrik Inc.'s technical momentum look?
Rubrik Inc. exhibits bullish technical momentum, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($101.29 and $73.02). The RSI is at 66.54 (bullish) and the MACD is positive, indicating strong buying interest and an upward trend.