Stock·NASDAQ·Consumer Defensive
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)
- Market cap
- $23.20B
- P/E
- 15.06
- Dividend yield
- None
- Street target
- $137.50median of 29 analysts
- 52-week range
- $85.88 $142.40
DLTR stock forecast today
Where DLTR stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
DLTR at a glance
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR): Buy, 74/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($121.75 and $116.82).
- Earnings DLTR beat estimates in 8 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after 3 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $251.3M and bought $402K over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 15.1 against 24.2 for the Consumer Defensive sector: a discount to peers (-38%).
Figures as of October 27, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) earns a CleaRank rating of Buy and a model score of 74/100.
Valuation pushes the score higher than any other factor. The P/E of 15.06 sits 37.8% below the sector median, which marks a discount to peers, and the P/S of 1.16 is 47.3% below the sector median. The trend is up, with the price 1.56% above its 50-day average of $121.75 and 5.85% above its 200-day average of $116.82. Across the past year, the price climbed 20.53%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from DLTR's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
DLTR stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
4/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $123.65 is 1.6% above the 50-day simple moving average of $121.75.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 5.8% above the 200-day simple moving average of $116.82.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($121.75) is 4.2% above the 200-day average ($116.82), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 67% of its 52-week range, between $85.88 and $142.40.
DLTR share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far DLTR has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where DLTR sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
DLTR fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
4/4P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 15.06 is 37.8% below the Consumer Defensive median of 24.2.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 1.16 is 47.5% below the sector median of 2.2.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $1.6B on revenue of $20.1B, a net margin of 8.1%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
DLTR beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.
Key statistics
The headline figures for DLTR.
As of October 27, 2026, DLTR trades at $123.65, with a market value of $23.20B and a P/E ratio of 15.06.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of DLTR's valuation, growth and risks.
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) screens as a discount to peers. Its P/E of 15.06 is 37.8% below the Consumer Defensive sector median of 24.2.
With revenue growth of 7.00%, DLTR is 1.7 percentage points faster than the sector median of 5.3%. DLTR turns sales into profit at a net margin of 8.04% and an operating margin of 6.21%, alongside a return on equity of 46.03%, above the sector median of 19.7%. The balance sheet rounds out the picture, with debt-to-equity of 2.24.
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) reported $2.70 per share against an estimate of $1.14 in its August 27, 2026 report, beating the estimate by 136.84%. Investors responded positively, and the stock rose 0.99% in the next session.
Across its last 8 reports, DLTR beat the estimate every time, though the stock still fell in the first session after 3 of those 8 beats. The consensus EPS estimate stands at $7.93 for this fiscal year and $7.91 for next, growth of 37.9% for the current year.
Daily price swings are the main risk to plan for. DLTR moves 1.95% on an average session, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 0.72.
DLTR against the Consumer Defensive sector
How DLTR compares with the median Consumer Defensive stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: DLTR trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-38%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs SPY: Since May 15, 2025, DLTR has gained 42.8% against a gain of 30.4% for SPY.
Performance against SPY
DLTR and the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much DLTR sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 10.4% in FY2026 to $19.4B, from $17.6B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 6.6% in FY2026, up from -17.2% the year before.
Profitable: DLTR earned $1.3B in FY2026.
Earnings reality check
Did DLTR beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: DLTR beat the analyst estimate in 8 of the last 8 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 3 of those 8 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026after close | $1.14 | $2.70 | +136.84% | +0.99% | +3.18% |
| May 28, 2026after close | $1.54 | $1.74 | +12.99% | +3.04% | -3.30% |
| Mar 16, 2026after close | $2.53 | $2.56 | +1.19% | -2.20% | -5.33% |
| Dec 3, 2025after close | $1.08 | $1.21 | +12.04% | +2.61% | +10.02% |
| Sep 3, 2025after close | $0.41 | $0.77 | +87.80% | -1.74% | -3.12% |
| Jun 4, 2025after close | $1.21 | $1.26 | +4.13% | +9.08% | +6.31% |
| Mar 26, 2025after close | $2.20 | $2.29 | +4.09% | +11.18% | +12.08% |
| Dec 4, 2024after close | $1.08 | $1.12 | +3.70% | -1.72% | -2.98% |
As of October 27, 2026, DLTR has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 3 of those beats; its latest report, on August 27, 2026, came in 136.84% above the estimate and the stock moved +0.99% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
DLTR AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 54.1, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 54.1 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of DLTR
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) is trading at $123.65, above both of its main moving averages. The price sits 1.56% above its 50-day average of $121.75 and 5.85% above its 200-day average of $116.82. The 50-day average is 4.22% above the 200-day, a configuration that supports the upward move. Inside its 52-week range of $85.88 to $142.40, the price stands at 67%, and it is 13.17% below the high.
The short and long run point different ways: the price rose 8.40% over the past month, fell 2.45% over the past three months and rose 20.53% over the past year. The 14-day RSI of 54.1 is in the neutral zone, and the MACD line is positive.
Earnings beat ›
The August 27, 2026 report beat the EPS estimate by 136.84%, and the share price rose 0.99% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, August 27, 2026Analyst upgrade ›
Loop Capital upgraded it to Buy from Hold on October 1, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Loop Capital, October 1, 2026
- The two levels closest to the price matter most: the 52-week high at $142.40 above, and the 20-day EMA at $122.03 below.
- A 14-day RSI of 54.1 is neutral, and the MACD line is positive. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
- The share price rose 0.99% in the first session after the August 27, 2026 report, and DLTR has beaten estimates in 8 of the last 8 reports.
The uptrend rests on DLTR staying above its 50-day average at $121.75 and its 200-day average at $116.82; a close below the 50-day would be the first crack in it. On a pullback, the first level the price would meet is the 20-day EMA at $122.03.
DLTR's next overhead level is its 52-week high of $142.40. The 14-day RSI of 54.1 sits in the neutral band between 40 and 60.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for DLTR, from its daily closes.
As of October 27, 2026, with DLTR at $123.65, its 14-day RSI is 54.1 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $121.75 and its 200-day is $116.82.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 27, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What DLTR moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 27, 2026, DLTR's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.21 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.14 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.07 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.00 with gold (XAU).
DLTR price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
1/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
11 of 29 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 14 a hold and 4 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $137.50 is 11.2% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
11 of 29 rate it a buy now, against 11 of 28 three months ago.
DLTR Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | In-Line |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral |
| Aug 28, 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight |
As of October 27, 2026, 29 Wall Street analysts cover DLTR: 11 rate it a buy or strong buy, 14 a hold and 4 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $98.00 to $170.00. The median DLTR price target is $137.50, 11.2% above the price of $123.65.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
DLTR trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
DLTR trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from DLTR's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much DLTR tends to move, against the market and on its own.
DLTR price history and drawdowns
DLTR's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
2/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.95% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 64.7%, from July 2022 to November 2024; the price is still 28.7% below that peak.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
60% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $16,779, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
DLTR Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 27, 2026, DLTR's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -64.7% (July 2022 to November 2024); it is still 28.7% below that peak, and 60% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into DLTR in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: DLTR trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $16,779 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in DLTR in October 2016 would be worth about $16,779 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to DLTR, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +6.97%, up in 7 of 10 years.
Weakest month, September: an average of -5.81%, up in 3 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +4.82%, up in 6 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, DLTR's strongest calendar month has been November (average +6.97%, up in 7 of 10 years) and its weakest September (average -5.81%, up in 3 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
DLTR stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in DLTR, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in DLTR today could grow to about $12,555 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $32,915 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $4,789. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DLTR Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $155 for DLTR by 2030 in the base case, from $124 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $59.22. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DLTR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $80.84 | $131 | $212 | |
| 2028 | $70.09 | $139 | $274 | |
| 2029 | $63.65 | $147 | $338 | |
| 2030 | $59.22 | $155 | $407 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of DLTR's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
DLTR insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
DLTR insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: Insiders bought $402K on the open market and sold $251.3M.
As of October 27, 2026, DLTR insiders reported 9 open-market sales worth $251.3M and 2 open-market purchases worth $402K over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Stephanie P Stahl
Director
|
Sell | 1.2K | $155.8K |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Robert Aflatooni
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 2.5K | $315.0K |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Stephanie P Stahl
Director
|
Grant | 1.2K | - |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Cheryl W Grise
Director
|
Grant | 1.2K | $150.0K |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Daniel J Heinrich
Director
|
Grant | 1.2K | $150.0K |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Timothy A Johnson
Director
|
Grant | 1.2K | $150.0K |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Diane Elizabeth Randolph
Director
|
Grant | 1.2K | $150.0K |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Diane Elizabeth Randolph
Director
|
Grant | 1.4K | - |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Ridge, L.p. Mantle
Unknown
|
Sell | 2.2M | $248.3M |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Ridge, L.p. Mantle
Unknown
|
Option | 602.2K | $89.6M |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Robert Aflatooni
Chief Technology Officer
|
Grant | 8.7K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Brent A Beebe
Officer
|
Grant | 7.4K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Michael C Creedon Jr
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 44.2K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Stewart F Glendinning
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 18.4K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Jocelyn Z Konrad
Officer
|
Grant | 6.0K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Aditya Maheshwari
Officer
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | John S Mitchell Jr
Officer
|
Grant | 7.4K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Steven Schumacher
Officer
|
Grant | 6.9K | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Roxanne Rena Weng
Officer
|
Grant | 6.0K | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Robert Aflatooni
Chief Technology Officer
|
Grant | 1.3K | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Brent A Beebe
Officer
|
Grant | 221 | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Michael C Creedon Jr
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 1.9K | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | John S Mitchell Jr
Officer
|
Grant | 221 | - |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Steven Schumacher
Officer
|
Grant | 221 | - |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Robert Aflatooni
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 175 | $23.0K |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Brent A Beebe
Officer
|
Sell | 2.2K | $274.2K |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Brent A Beebe
Officer
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Robert Aflatooni
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 1.3K | $119.3K |
| Oct 3, 2025 | John S Mitchell Jr
Officer
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Stewart F Glendinning
Chief Financial Officer
|
Buy | 3.5K | $342.1K |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Stephanie P Stahl
Director
|
Sell | 1.2K | $118.9K |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Stephanie P Stahl
Director
|
Grant | 1.2K | - |
| Jul 1, 2025 | William W Douglas III
Director
|
Grant | 1.5K | $149.9K |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Daniel J Heinrich
Director
|
Grant | 1.5K | $149.9K |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Timothy A Johnson
Director
|
Grant | 1.5K | $149.9K |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Diane Elizabeth Randolph
Director
|
Grant | 1.2K | - |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Diane Elizabeth Randolph
Director
|
Grant | 1.5K | $149.9K |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Robert Aflatooni
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 175 | $17.1K |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Aditya Maheshwari
Officer
|
Buy | 610 | $59.9K |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Richard L. Mcneely
Officer
|
Sell | 21.0K | $2.0M |
| May 30, 2025 | Roxanne Rena Weng
Officer
|
Grant | 5.5K | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
DLTR stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 27, 2026.