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As of September 11, 2026, Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) trades at $118.66. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $118.66, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $140.00 across 28 analysts. RSI at 38 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $127.18.
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)
Dollar Tree Inc. NASDAQ
$118.66
0.2700 (0.23%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
57 / 100
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) is currently trading at $118.66, below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The company's recent earnings have shown significant EPS beats, particularly in the latest quarter with a 136.84% surprise, yet the stock price reaction has been mixed, suggesting that positive earnings are not fully translating into sustained upward momentum. Analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $140, implying an 18% upside from current levels, but the overall analyst score of 57 reflects a cautious outlook. Despite the mixed technical picture, Dollar Tree's revenue growth is projected to continue at approximately 6-7% year-over-year for the upcoming quarters and the current year. The company's fundamental valuation, with a P/E ratio of 14.54, appears attractive relative to sector averages, but this is tempered by the bearish technical indicators and a neutral RSI momentum. The primary risk remains the stock's current trading pattern and the potential for further downside if key support levels are breached.
DLTR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$118.32
Day Range
$117.80 to $120.36
Prev Close
$118.39
Volume
2.51M
52-Week Range
$84.71 to $142.40
Market Cap
$22.26B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs VDC
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-43%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
DLTR Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+17.98% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$140.00
AI Technical Analysis
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $127.18 and its 20-day EMA of $127.49, signaling bearish short-term momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day SMA of $117.42, which serves as a key support level. The RSI is at 38.02, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is negative at -1.04, further reinforcing the current downtrend. The nearest resistance is observed at the 50-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA acts as a critical support level. Volume on recent trading days has been slightly below average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. The current chart structure implies that the stock may continue to face selling pressure until it can decisively break above its near-term moving averages. Investors should monitor the 200-day SMA closely for any signs of a potential reversal or further decline.
ProTips
- Monitor Dollar Tree's ability to break above its 50-day SMA ($127.18) and 20-day EMA ($127.49) for signs of a trend reversal.
- The significant selling activity from MANTLE RIDGE, L.P. should be closely watched, as it represents a large block of shares that could impact market supply.
- Given the current bearish technical momentum, consider implementing stop-loss orders below the 200-day SMA ($117.42) to mitigate potential downside risk.
Key Catalysts
Neutral
Parent Divestiture by MANTLE RIDGE, L.P.
MANTLE RIDGE, L.P. has been systematically reducing its stake in Dollar Tree, representing $248.3M in sales. This is classified as a corporate restructuring rather than a bearish signal from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Strong EPS Beat in Latest Quarter
Dollar Tree reported an EPS of $2.70 for the quarter ending August 27, 2026, significantly exceeding the analyst estimate of $1.14 by 136.84%, leading to a positive price reaction.
Source: Earnings ReportNeutral
Continued Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts project year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 6.00% for the current quarter and 7.00% for the current year, indicating sustained business expansion.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA and 20-day EMA, with a bearish RSI and negative MACD, suggesting potential for further price declines if key support levels are breached.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) is expected to maintain its 'Hold' consensus rating in the near term, with a median analyst price target of $140 suggesting a modest 18% upside from its current price of $118.66. The company's revenue is projected to grow by approximately 6-7% year-over-year for the upcoming quarters and the current year, supported by its competitive P/E ratio of 14.54, which is below the sector average. The outlook hinges on the company's ability to overcome its bearish technical indicators, including trading below key moving averages and a neutral RSI. A decisive break above the 50-day SMA would be a positive signal, potentially leading to a re-evaluation of the stock's trajectory. Key risks include continued selling pressure from MANTLE RIDGE, L.P. and intense industry competition, which could hinder further price appreciation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 22.26B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.54 |
| EPS (TTM) | 8.16 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 142.40 |
| 52 Week Low | 84.71 |
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) presents a P/E ratio of 14.54, which is notably lower than the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a potentially undervalued stock from a valuation perspective. However, its revenue growth of 7% is slightly below the sector average of 10%. The company's profitability, as indicated by its EPS of $8.16, remains solid. The market capitalization stands at $22.26 billion. While the valuation metrics appear favorable, the company's performance needs to be viewed in the context of its sector. The discount store industry often operates on thinner margins, and Dollar Tree's growth rate, while positive, is not exceptional compared to the broader consumer defensive sector. Investors should consider the company's ability to maintain its market share and profitability in a competitive environment, especially given the current bearish technical indicators.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) has demonstrated a strong track record of beating earnings estimates in recent quarters. The most recent quarter, ending August 27, 2026, saw an EPS of $2.70 against an estimate of $1.14, a significant 136.84% surprise, leading to a 0.99% price increase. Prior to this, the company also beat estimates in May 2026 and March 2026, though with smaller positive price reactions. This consistent outperformance in earnings suggests effective cost management and operational efficiency, even as the stock's price action has been more muted.
Key Risks
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) faces key risks including its current bearish technical momentum, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages, and a neutral RSI indicating a lack of strong upward momentum. Additionally, the significant selling pressure from MANTLE RIDGE, L.P., although classified as a parent divestiture, represents a substantial volume of shares potentially entering the market, which could weigh on price. Competition within the discount retail sector remains intense, requiring continuous innovation and efficient operations to maintain market share and profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 38.02 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.04 |
| SMA 50 | 127.18 |
| SMA 200 | 117.42 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($127.18) above the 200-day SMA ($117.42), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.16
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.15
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
DLTR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$117.47
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$118.66
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$113.66
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (38.0) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$121.00
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$123.35
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$126.87
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for DLTR is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in DLTR in September 2016 would be worth about $14,404 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in DLTR today could grow to about $16,770 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $76,691 and a bear case around $3,667. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DLTR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $146 for DLTR by 2030 in the base case, from $119 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $55.79. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DLTR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $77.27 | $125 | $202 |
| 2028 | $66.67 | $132 | $260 |
| 2029 | $60.26 | $139 | $319 |
| 2030 | $55.79 | $146 | $382 |
| 2031 | $52.45 | $154 | $450 |
| 2032 | $49.85 | $162 | $525 |
| 2033 | $47.77 | $170 | $608 |
| 2034 | $46.07 | $179 | $699 |
| 2035 | $44.68 | $189 | $799 |
| 2036 | $43.52 | $199 | $910 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using DLTR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
DLTR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$2.2M
4 Transactions
Sold
$251.4M
12 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$15.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | MANTLE RIDGE, L.P.
Unknown
|
Sell | 2.2M | $248.3M |
| Dec 1, 2020 | SAUNDERS THOMAS A III
Director
|
Sell | 104.9K | $11.7M |
| Oct 4, 2019 | SASSER BOB
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 70.0K | $8.1M |
| Dec 2, 2020 | SAUNDERS THOMAS A III
Director
|
Sell | 64.6K | $7.2M |
| Apr 27, 2021 | WAMPLER KEVIN S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 20.1K | $2.3M |
| Jun 14, 2019 | WAMPLER KEVIN S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 20.5K | $2.2M |
| Dec 3, 2020 | SAUNDERS THOMAS A III
Director
|
Sell | 18.4K | $2.1M |
| Nov 15, 2021 | OLD WILLIAM A JR
Officer
|
Sell | 16.3K | $2.0M |
| Jun 6, 2025 | MCNEELY RICHARD L.
Officer
|
Sell | 21.0K | $2.0M |
| Jun 24, 2019 | SAUNDERS THOMAS A III
Director
|
Sell | 14.5K | $1.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Dollar Tree's current stock price and consensus rating?
As of September 11, 2026, Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) is trading at $118.66 per share. The current consensus rating from Wall Street analysts is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 57 out of 100.
What are the key technical indicators for Dollar Tree stock?
Dollar Tree's technical indicators show bearish momentum, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages. The RSI is at 38.02, indicating bearish sentiment, and the MACD is negative. The 200-day SMA at $117.42 is a critical support level to watch.
How has Dollar Tree performed in recent earnings reports?
Dollar Tree has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters. The latest report showed an EPS surprise of 136.84%, with the stock reacting positively. This trend suggests strong operational performance, though it has not always translated into sustained stock price gains.
What is the median analyst price target for Dollar Tree?
The median analyst price target for Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) is $140.00, suggesting an upside potential of 18.0% from its current trading price of $118.66.
What are the main risks facing Dollar Tree?
Key risks for Dollar Tree include its current bearish technical trend, significant selling activity from MANTLE RIDGE, L.P. which could impact supply, and intense competition within the discount retail sector. The stock's inability to break above key moving averages also presents a near-term risk.
How does Dollar Tree's valuation compare to its sector averages?
Dollar Tree's P/E ratio of 14.54 is significantly lower than the consumer defensive sector average of 25.5, indicating a potentially attractive valuation. However, its revenue growth of 7% is below the sector average of 10%.
What is the long-range projection for Dollar Tree stock?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Dollar Tree's stock price projection for 2030 shows a base case of $145.92, with a downside scenario at $55.79 and an upside scenario at $381.65. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.