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As of September 9, 2026, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) trades at $100.08. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $100.08, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $100.00 across 18 analysts. RSI at 51 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $89.07.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. NYSE
$100.08
-4.230 (-4.06%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is currently trading at $100.08, a level that aligns with its median analyst price target of $100.00, indicating limited immediate upside potential. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with current quarter estimates showing a 36.00% year-over-year increase, and has recently beaten earnings expectations in multiple quarters. However, significant insider selling, totaling $97.6 million in sales against $464.8 thousand in purchases, signals a potential lack of confidence from management and a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict from insider activity analysis. This heavy selling pressure, coupled with a neutral RSI and a consensus rating of 'Buy' from Wall Street analysts (though with a score of 68/100), presents a balanced risk-reward scenario.
ELF Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$102.89
Day Range
$99.93 to $103.06
Prev Close
$104.31
Volume
1.61M
52-Week Range
$48.82 to $150.99
Market Cap
$5.91B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs VDC
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+339%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
ELF Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ELF beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
ELF Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+2.50% Upside
Median of 18 analysts (12-month)
$102.58
AI Technical Analysis
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($89.07 and $76.33), indicating a generally positive longer-term trend, but is currently below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50.61, which is neutral and suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, aligning with a neutral momentum status. MACD is positive at 5.03, but the CCI at -130.33 indicates some downward pressure. Volume has been slightly above its average, with the latest volume at 1.61 million compared to an average of 1.59 million, suggesting moderate investor interest. Key support can be found around the 50-day SMA of $89.07, while resistance may emerge near the recent highs around $101.33.
ProTips
- Given the significant insider selling totaling $97.6 million, investors should closely monitor future earnings reports and management commentary for any signs of changing business fundamentals or increased risk.
- The stock's current trading level aligns precisely with the median analyst price target, suggesting that further upside may be limited unless new catalysts emerge or analyst targets are revised upwards.
- With a neutral RSI and mixed technical indicators, consider employing a strategy that accounts for potential volatility, such as setting stop-loss orders below key support levels like the 50-day SMA ($89.07).
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Earnings Beat in August 2026
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) reported EPS of $1.75, significantly exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.72 by 175%, leading to a 6.88% stock price increase. This demonstrates the company's ability to outperform expectations.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
High Revenue Growth Exceeding Sector Average
The company is projected to achieve 36.00% revenue growth in the current quarter, far surpassing the sector average of 10.00%. This strong top-line expansion is a key driver for the company's valuation.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Heavy Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold a net $97.6 million worth of stock against only $464.8 thousand in purchases, resulting in a 'Heavy Sell Signal' verdict. This indicates a lack of confidence from management and a potential overhang on the stock price.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Median Analyst Target Price Matches Current Stock Price
The median analyst price target for ELF is $100.00, which is virtually identical to its current trading price of $100.08. This suggests that Wall Street analysts do not foresee significant upside potential in the near term.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesMarket Outlook
The outlook for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is cautiously balanced, with strong growth prospects tempered by valuation concerns and insider selling. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates and achieve high revenue growth provides a solid foundation for future performance. However, the current P/E ratio of 111.91, significantly above the sector average, suggests that much of this growth is already priced in, as reflected by the median analyst target price matching the current stock level. The next 6-12 months will likely see the stock's trajectory heavily influenced by its ability to maintain its exceptional growth rates and manage market expectations around its premium valuation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 5.91B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 111.91 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.9800 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 150.99 |
| 52 Week Low | 48.82 |
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) exhibits a high P/E ratio of 111.91, significantly above the sector average of 25.5, suggesting the stock is trading at a premium valuation. While the company's revenue growth of 35.5% is exceptional and far exceeds the sector average of 10.0%, its current earnings per share of $0.98 does not fully justify the high P/E. The median analyst price target of $100.00, which is precisely the current stock price, implies that the market may be pricing in most of the expected growth. The company's strong revenue trajectory is a positive, but the valuation appears stretched relative to its earnings, especially when compared to industry peers.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) has demonstrated a strong ability to beat earnings estimates, most notably with a 175% EPS surprise in August 2026 (actual $1.75 vs. estimate $0.72), which coincided with a 6.88% stock price increase. While there was a significant beat in February 2026 as well (124% actual vs. 72% estimate), the stock reacted negatively with a -9.18% drop. The company has shown a pattern of exceeding analyst expectations, indicating operational efficiency and effective management in delivering results, though market reactions have been mixed.
Key Risks
The primary risk for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) stems from its significantly elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio far exceeding sector averages, and a median analyst price target that offers no upside from the current stock price. Also, substantial insider selling, amounting to nearly $97.6 million, raises concerns about management's near-term outlook for the stock. Competitive pressures within the consumer defensive sector, particularly in household and personal products, could also impact future growth and profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 50.61 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 5.03 |
| SMA 50 | 89.07 |
| SMA 200 | 76.33 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($89.07) above the 200-day SMA ($76.33), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.33
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.31
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
ELF Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$99.08
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$100.08
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$94.14
MAX LOSS
-5.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (50.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$102.05
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$104.03
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$107.01
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
ELF is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.33%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ELF in September 2016 would be worth about $39,362 today, compared with about $35,268 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ELF today could grow to about $27,873 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $211,460 and a bear case around $3,674. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ELF Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $151 for ELF by 2030 in the base case, from $100 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $41.86. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ELF's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $58.42 | $111 | $210 |
| 2028 | $49.64 | $123 | $304 |
| 2029 | $44.86 | $136 | $413 |
| 2030 | $41.86 | $151 | $543 |
| 2031 | $39.87 | $167 | $700 |
| 2032 | $38.53 | $185 | $889 |
| 2033 | $37.64 | $205 | $1,118 |
| 2034 | $37.10 | $227 | $1,392 |
| 2035 | $36.82 | $252 | $1,721 |
| 2036 | $36.77 | $279 | $2,116 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ELF's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. ELF is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
ELF Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$464.8K
1 Transactions
Sold
$97.6M
63 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2025 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 116.3K | $15.4M |
| Apr 18, 2024 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 74.5K | $12.4M |
| Jun 6, 2024 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 64.7K | $12.0M |
| Dec 14, 2023 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 77.3K | $11.0M |
| Feb 12, 2024 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 58.0K | $10.2M |
| Jun 5, 2023 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 89.2K | $9.4M |
| Jan 2, 2024 | MILSTEN SCOTT KENNETH
General Counsel
|
Sell | 64.9K | $9.0M |
| Mar 2, 2021 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 302.7K | $8.0M |
| Sep 5, 2023 | AMIN TARANG P
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 56.4K | $7.7M |
| Sep 8, 2025 | FIELDS MANDY J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 55.7K | $7.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) stock a buy right now?
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is currently rated as a 'Hold' by our consensus score of 59, and Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a score of 68. The median analyst price target is $100.00, which matches the current stock price, suggesting limited immediate upside. Significant insider selling also presents a cautionary signal.
What is ELF's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s (ELF) stock price forecast for 2030 shows a base case of $150.81, with a downside projection of $41.86 and an upside projection of $543.26. These are statistical outcomes and not definitive price targets.
How has e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) performed in recent earnings reports?
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, including a significant 175% EPS surprise in August 2026. While most recent quarters have shown positive surprises, the stock's price reaction has been mixed, with a notable drop following a large beat in February 2026.
What are the key risks facing e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)?
Key risks for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) include its high valuation relative to sector averages, a median analyst price target that offers no upside, and substantial insider selling pressure. Competitive dynamics within the consumer defensive sector also pose a potential threat to future performance.
How does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) compare to its sector averages?
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) significantly outperforms its sector averages in revenue growth (35.5% vs. 10.0%) and shows strong EPS performance. However, its P/E ratio of 111.91 is substantially higher than the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation.
What is the long-term outlook for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)?
The long-term outlook for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is supported by its consistent revenue growth and ability to beat earnings estimates. However, the current high valuation and significant insider selling introduce uncertainty, suggesting that future performance will depend on continued strong execution and market acceptance of its premium pricing.
What is the momentum and technical picture for ELF stock?
Technically, ELF is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($89.07 and $76.33) but below its 20-day EMA, with a neutral RSI at 50.6. While the MACD is positive, the CCI indicates some downward pressure, suggesting a mixed technical picture with limited immediate directional conviction.