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As of September 11, 2026, Dollar General Corp. (DG) trades at $122.99. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $138.00, 12.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $138.00 across 30 analysts. RSI at 53 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $123.28.
Dollar General Corp. (DG)
Dollar General Corp. NYSE
$122.99
-1.580 (-1.27%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Dollar General Corp. (DG) is trading at $122.99, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($123.28 and $126.46), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's recent earnings have shown mixed results, with a significant EPS beat in Q3 2026 offset by price declines in other quarters. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $138, implying a 12.2% upside from current levels. The company operates in the Discount Stores industry within the Consumer Defensive sector, facing competition from peers like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT). Fundamental analysis reveals a P/E ratio of 16.35, which aligns with the sector average. Revenue growth is projected to be around 4-5% for the current and next fiscal years. However, insider transactions show a net selling trend, with over $10 million in sales in recent filings, signaling a 'Moderate Sell Signal' according to the insider summary. This, combined with the stock's positioning below key moving averages, presents a cautious outlook for the near term.
DG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$124.15
Day Range
$122.40 to $126.06
Prev Close
$124.57
Volume
2.11M
52-Week Range
$95.11 to $158.23
Market Cap
$27.13B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs VDC
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-0.0278% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
DG Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, DG beat estimates 5 times. However, the stock fell 4 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
DG Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+12.20% Upside
Median of 30 analysts (12-month)
$138.00
AI Technical Analysis
Dollar General's stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($123.28 and $126.46), at $123.28 and $126.46 respectively, suggesting a bearish trend. The 20-day exponential moving average also sits above the current price at $125.83, reinforcing this downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53.47, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD is slightly positive at 1.316, offering no strong directional signal. Key support levels are not clearly defined by the provided data, but the current price is below significant moving averages. Volume on the latest trading day was 2.11 million shares, which is 32.4% below the average volume of 3.12 million shares, suggesting subdued investor interest. The stock's technical setup indicates potential for further downside if it cannot reclaim its key moving averages.
ProTips
- Insider selling totaling over $10 million suggests caution, as management may be signaling concerns about future performance or valuation.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($123.28 and $126.46), indicating a bearish technical trend that could persist until key resistance levels are reclaimed.
- Consider position sizing carefully given the moderate insider selling and neutral technical momentum; a stop-loss below the 200-day SMA could mitigate downside risk.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold over $10 million worth of stock across 64 transactions, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' and potentially signaling a lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Below Key Moving Averages
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($123.28 and $126.46), suggesting a bearish technical trend and potential for further downside if these levels remain as resistance.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Mixed Earnings Reaction
Despite a significant EPS beat in Q3 2026, the stock price declined, indicating that positive earnings surprises may not consistently translate into stock price gains, creating uncertainty around future earnings catalysts.
Source: Earnings DataBullish
Median Analyst Target Price Upside
The median analyst price target of $138 suggests a potential upside of 12.2% from the current price, offering a modest bullish case if analysts' expectations are met.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Dollar General (DG) suggests a neutral to slightly bearish near-term trajectory, with the stock trading below key moving averages and facing moderate insider selling. The median analyst price target of $138 implies a modest 12.2% upside from the current price of $122.99, but this is tempered by the 'Hold' consensus rating. Revenue growth is expected to remain in the 4-5% range, which is solid but not exceptional for the sector. Potential catalysts for upside could include a significant improvement in consumer spending in the discount retail segment or a shift in analyst sentiment driven by stronger-than-expected forward guidance. Conversely, persistent insider selling, continued weakness in technical indicators, or increased competition from larger retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing the lower end of the long-range projection around $68.64 by 2030.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 27.13B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.35 |
| EPS (TTM) | 7.70 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.92% |
| 52 Week High | 158.23 |
| 52 Week Low | 95.11 |
Dollar General's valuation appears reasonable, with a P/E ratio of 16.35 that is in line with the sector average. The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 4-5% in the current and next fiscal years, with current year revenue projected at $44.5 billion. Profitability metrics such as Net Profit Margin are not explicitly provided, but the EPS of $7.7 suggests a healthy earnings capacity relative to its market capitalization of $27.13 billion. However, the balance sheet strength is not detailed, and the 'Moderate Sell Signal' from insider transactions, with over $10 million in sales, raises concerns about management's near-term confidence. While the stock is not trading at a significant premium to its sector peers based on P/E, the combination of insider selling and a neutral technical outlook warrants caution.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Dollar General recently reported a strong EPS beat in Q3 2026, with actual EPS of $2.48 exceeding estimates by 23.38%, although the stock saw a 2.38% price decline on the news. Prior quarters showed mixed performance, including a 6.38% beat in Q2 2026 and a significant 40% beat in Q1 2026, but also price drops in two of those instances. This pattern suggests that while the company can exceed earnings expectations, the market reaction is not consistently positive, potentially due to forward guidance or broader market sentiment.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Dollar General is the moderate insider selling, with over $10 million in sales, signaling a potential lack of confidence from management. Technically, the stock is trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish momentum and a risk of further price depreciation. Additionally, the mixed market reaction to recent earnings beats suggests that positive financial results may not translate into stock price appreciation, highlighting a potential disconnect between performance and investor sentiment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 53.47 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 1.32 |
| SMA 50 | 123.28 |
| SMA 200 | 126.46 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $123.28, 200-day: $126.46), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
-0.02
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
DG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$121.76
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$122.99
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$116.29
MAX LOSS
-4.5%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (53.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$125.41
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$127.85
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$131.50
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for DG is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in DG in September 2016 would be worth about $17,137 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in DG today could grow to about $18,435 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $68,255 and a bear case around $4,979. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DG Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $157 for DG by 2030 in the base case, from $123 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $68.64. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $86.43 | $131 | $198 |
| 2028 | $77.40 | $139 | $250 |
| 2029 | $72.14 | $148 | $303 |
| 2030 | $68.64 | $157 | $359 |
| 2031 | $66.18 | $167 | $421 |
| 2032 | $64.40 | $178 | $489 |
| 2033 | $63.12 | $189 | $564 |
| 2034 | $62.22 | $201 | $647 |
| 2035 | $61.61 | $213 | $738 |
| 2036 | $61.24 | $227 | $839 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using DG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
DG Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$10.0M
11 Transactions
Insiders
21
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$911.0K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2021 | VASOS TODD JOSEPH
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 337.5K | $74.6M |
| Aug 29, 2022 | VASOS TODD JOSEPH
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 216.7K | $52.0M |
| May 28, 2021 | VASOS TODD JOSEPH
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 255.2K | $51.9M |
| Sep 2, 2020 | VASOS TODD JOSEPH
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 198.0K | $39.7M |
| May 29, 2020 | VASOS TODD JOSEPH
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 165.5K | $31.6M |
| Sep 1, 2022 | VASOS TODD JOSEPH
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 97.3K | $23.5M |
| Aug 26, 2022 | TAYLOR RHONDA M
General Counsel
|
Sell | 44.4K | $10.8M |
| May 28, 2021 | TAYLOR RHONDA M
General Counsel
|
Sell | 52.3K | $10.7M |
| Mar 22, 2019 | RAVENER ROBERT D JR
Officer
|
Sell | 79.0K | $9.3M |
| May 29, 2020 | GARRATT JOHN W
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 45.0K | $8.5M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Dollar General stock a buy right now?
Dollar General (DG) is currently rated as 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 60. The stock is trading below its key moving averages and exhibits moderate insider selling, suggesting limited near-term upside potential.
What is Dollar General's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Dollar General's stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $157.08 and a downside projection of $68.64. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
What are the biggest risks facing Dollar General?
Key risks include moderate insider selling totaling over $10 million, a bearish technical trend indicated by the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($123.28 and $126.46), and mixed market reactions to recent earnings beats.
How does Dollar General compare to its sector averages?
Dollar General's P/E ratio of 16.35 aligns with the sector average, and its projected revenue growth of 4-5% is also in line. However, its current stock price is trading below the sector's average P/E and revenue growth metrics.
What is the Wall Street consensus on Dollar General stock?
The Wall Street consensus for Dollar General (DG) is 'Hold', with 19 out of 30 analysts rating it as such. The overall consensus score is 60 out of 100, with a median price target of $138.
What was Dollar General's most recent earnings performance?
In Q3 2026, Dollar General reported an EPS of $2.48, beating estimates by 23.38%, though the stock price declined 2.38%. Previous quarters showed mixed results with both beats and misses, and inconsistent stock price reactions.
What is the outlook for Dollar General's revenue growth?
Revenue growth for Dollar General is projected to be around 5.00% for the current quarter and 4.00% for the next quarter. The current fiscal year is expected to see approximately 4.00% revenue growth, reaching an estimated $44.5 billion.