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As of September 11, 2026, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) trades at $902.38. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $902.38, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $1,100.00 across 39 analysts. RSI at 38 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $941.18.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
Costco Wholesale Corporation NASDAQ
$902.38
-0.2200 (-0.02%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is trading at $902.38, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($941.18 and $960.44), indicating a bearish technical momentum. The company's valuation, with a P/E ratio of 45.44, appears stretched compared to sector averages, and recent insider transactions show a net seller position totaling $35.6 million in sales, signaling a moderate sell signal. Despite these headwinds, Costco maintains a strong brand presence and consistent revenue growth, with analysts projecting 9.00% revenue growth next quarter and 8.00% next year. Wall Street analysts maintain a generally positive stance with a consensus 'Buy' rating from 39 analysts, a score of 66/100, and a median price target of $1100, suggesting a potential 21.9% upside. However, the current price action and insider selling warrant caution, suggesting that the stock may be range-bound in the near term as it digests its recent gains and awaits clearer fundamental catalysts.
COST Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$906.28
Day Range
$899.00 to $912.09
Prev Close
$902.60
Volume
1.92M
52-Week Range
$844.06 to $1,096.50
Market Cap
$400.19B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs VDC
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+78%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
COST Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, COST beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
COST Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+21.90% Upside
Median of 39 analysts (12-month)
$1,100.00
AI Technical Analysis
Costco's trading volume of 1.92 million shares is currently 4.7% below its average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders. The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($941.18 and $960.44), and its 20-day EMA ($932.57), all of which are now acting as resistance. The RSI is at 37.89, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is negative at -11.04, further reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current downward trend, but the stock's proximity to its 52-week low could offer some psychological support. The current chart structure suggests a potential for further downside or a period of consolidation until a clearer trend emerges, possibly driven by upcoming earnings or broader market sentiment shifts.
ProTips
- Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for signs of sustained revenue growth and profitability that can justify Costco's current premium valuation.
- Given the bearish technical signals and moderate insider selling, consider a more conservative entry point or a stop-loss order below recent support levels.
- The company's consistent revenue growth and strong brand loyalty are key strengths, but investors should remain vigilant regarding competitive dynamics within the discount retail sector.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Earnings Surprise
A stronger-than-expected EPS beat in future quarters could validate Costco's premium valuation and reignite bullish sentiment.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Continued Insider Selling
Sustained or increased insider selling could signal a lack of confidence in the stock's near-term prospects, potentially pressuring the stock price.
Source: Insider TransactionsNeutral
Revenue Growth Projections
Meeting or exceeding projected revenue growth of 9.00% next quarter and 8.00% next year will be key to maintaining investor confidence.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Valuation Compression
If market sentiment shifts or interest rates rise, the premium P/E ratio of 45.44 could face compression, leading to a price decline.
Source: Valuation AnalysisMarket Outlook
Costco's base case outlook for the next 6-12 months suggests a period of consolidation or moderate growth, with the median Wall Street price target indicating a potential 21.9% upside to $1100. The company's strong revenue growth trajectory, projected at 9.00% next quarter and 8.00% next year, provides a solid foundation. However, the current premium valuation and bearish technical indicators suggest that significant upward momentum may be limited in the short term. The thesis could be altered by stronger-than-expected earnings reports that justify the current valuation, or by a significant shift in insider sentiment towards buying. Conversely, increased competitive pressure, a broader market downturn, or a failure to meet revenue growth expectations could lead to a re-rating of the stock, potentially pushing it towards its downside projection of $824.82.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 400.19B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.44 |
| EPS (TTM) | 19.86 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6139% |
| 52 Week High | 1,096.50 |
| 52 Week Low | 844.06 |
Costco's current P/E ratio of 45.44 significantly exceeds the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation that may not be fully supported by its current earnings. While the company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 21.5%, its profitability metrics and balance sheet strength relative to its valuation need careful consideration. The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be around 15.0%, aligning with sector averages, but the high P/E suggests investors are pricing in substantial future growth. The company's dividend yield of approximately 0.61% is modest, reflecting its strategy of reinvesting profits back into the business. Investors should monitor forward-looking revenue estimates, which project 9.00% growth next quarter and 8.00% next year, to see if the current valuation can be justified by sustained expansion. The significant insider selling also raises questions about management's near-term confidence in the stock's valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Costco's recent earnings report for the quarter ending May 28, 2026, showed an EPS of $4.93, slightly beating the estimate of $4.92 by 0.2%, though the stock reacted negatively with a 3.91% price drop. Prior to this, an earnings surprise of 74.34% was reported in the quarter ending March 27, 2026, with an actual EPS of -$0.97 against an estimate of -$3.78, which saw a positive price reaction of 1.29%. The company has a mixed pattern of earnings beats and misses in the recent quarters presented, making future performance difficult to predict solely on historical data.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Costco is its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly higher than its sector peers, suggesting potential for a valuation correction. Recent insider selling, totaling $35.6 million, represents a moderate sell signal and could indicate a lack of near-term confidence from management. Also, the stock is trading below key moving averages, signaling bearish technical momentum and potential for further price declines if broader market sentiment sours or competitive pressures intensify.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 37.89 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -11.04 |
| SMA 50 | 941.18 |
| SMA 200 | 960.44 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $941.18, 200-day: $960.44), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.30
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.24
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.00
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
COST Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$893.36
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$902.38
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$866.56
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (37.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$920.16
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$938.02
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$964.82
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for COST is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in COST in September 2016 would be worth about $59,488 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in COST today could grow to about $32,973 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $80,833 and a bear case around $13,450. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
COST Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,454 for COST by 2030 in the base case, from $902 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $825. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on COST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $766 | $1,017 | $1,350 |
| 2028 | $767 | $1,146 | $1,711 |
| 2029 | $790 | $1,291 | $2,109 |
| 2030 | $825 | $1,454 | $2,564 |
| 2031 | $869 | $1,639 | $3,089 |
| 2032 | $922 | $1,846 | $3,698 |
| 2033 | $982 | $2,080 | $4,405 |
| 2034 | $1,051 | $2,344 | $5,227 |
| 2035 | $1,128 | $2,641 | $6,183 |
| 2036 | $1,214 | $2,975 | $7,294 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using COST's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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COST Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$35.6M
22 Transactions
Insiders
23
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.6M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | JELINEK WALTER CRAIG
Director
|
Sell | 8.0K | $5.5M |
| Oct 25, 2018 | LAZARUS FRANZ E
Officer
|
Sell | 23.0K | $5.2M |
| Oct 30, 2018 | JELINEK WALTER CRAIG
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 22.5K | $5.0M |
| Oct 30, 2019 | PORTERA JOSEPH P
Officer
|
Sell | 14.1K | $4.2M |
| Apr 17, 2025 | KLAUER JAMES C
Officer
|
Sell | 4.0K | $3.9M |
| Oct 11, 2024 | MILLER RUSSELL D
Officer
|
Sell | 4.4K | $3.9M |
| Jul 14, 2025 | RUBANENKO YORAM B.
Officer
|
Sell | 4.0K | $3.9M |
| Mar 11, 2025 | VACHRIS ROLAND MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 3.6K | $3.4M |
| Jan 8, 2021 | MOULTON PAUL G
Officer
|
Sell | 9.0K | $3.3M |
| Sep 29, 2025 | MILLER RUSSELL D
Officer
|
Sell | 3.4K | $3.1M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Costco (COST) stock a buy right now?
Costco (COST) is currently rated as a 'Hold' with a consensus score of 55. While Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' consensus and a median price target of $1100, suggesting a 21.9% upside, the stock's current valuation is high relative to its sector, and recent insider selling indicates caution.
What is Costco's (COST) fair value?
Costco's (COST) fair value is currently assessed at $902.38, which is its present trading price, indicating no immediate upside based on this valuation metric.
What are the biggest risks facing Costco (COST)?
The primary risks for Costco (COST) include its high valuation relative to sector averages, recent moderate insider selling totaling $35.6 million, and bearish technical momentum indicated by its position below key moving averages.
How is Costco's (COST) revenue growth trending?
Costco (COST) has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a reported 21.5% year-over-year increase. Analysts project continued growth, estimating 9.00% for the next quarter and 8.00% for the next year.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Costco (COST) stock?
The Wall Street consensus for Costco (COST) is predominantly 'Buy', with 4 'Strong Buy', 20 'Buy', and 13 'Hold' ratings from 39 analysts. The overall Wall Street score is 66 out of 100, with a median price target of $1100.
What does the insider trading activity suggest for Costco (COST)?
Insider activity for Costco (COST) shows a 'NET SELLER' position, with total sales of $35.6 million and no reported purchases. This results in a moderate insider selling, suggesting caution among insiders.
What is Costco's (COST) stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Costco's (COST) stock price prediction for 2030 has a base case of $1454.3, a downside case of $824.82, and an upside case of $2564.18. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.