As of September 26, 2026, Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (DFEN) trades at $51.99. RSI at 23 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $69.40.
Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (DFEN)
Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares NYSE
Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (DFEN) is a leveraged ETF aiming to deliver three times the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index. The fund utilizes financial instruments to provide amplified exposure to U.S. aerospace and defense companies involved in aircraft manufacturing, defense equipment, and military systems. As a daily reset product, DFEN is intended for short-term tactical acts rather than long-term investment, offering concentrated, sector-specific exposure.
The fund's current price action indicates a significant downturn. It is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($69.40 and $72.43), signaling a bearish trend. The recent performance figures show negative returns across multiple short-term periods, including a 15.21% drop in the last month and a 14.90% decline over three months. While longer-term returns show positive figures, the immediate trend is decidedly negative.
DFEN Price Analysis
Market Metrics
DFEN Fund Facts
Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares is a leveraged exchange-traded fund designed to deliver three times the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index. The fund uses financial instruments such as swap agreements and other index-linked exposures to provide amplified access to U.S. aerospace and defense companies. Its portfolio is centered on businesses involved in aircraft manufacturing, defense equipment, military systems, and related technology services across the sector.
Sector weights
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | DFEN | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 1 month | -15.21% | 0.00% |
| 3 months | -14.90% | 0.00% |
| 1 year | 19.51% | 0.00% |
| 3 years | 59.36% | 0.00% |
| 5 years | 30.97% | 0.00% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 26, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
DFEN Analysis
DFEN is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $69.40 and its 200-day SMA of $72.43, indicating a bearish trend. The price is also below its 20-day EMA of $57.39, reinforcing the short-term downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 22.75, which is considered oversold, suggesting that the selling pressure may be reaching an extreme.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -5.44, further confirming the bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator at 14.52 also indicates oversold conditions. Given these indicators, the 50-day SMA at $69.40 and the 200-day SMA at $72.43 are now acting as resistance levels.
- DFEN is a leveraged ETF designed for short-term trading, not long-term investment.
- Monitor the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index for directional cues.
- Be aware of the high volatility and risk associated with 3x leveraged products.
- Consider the sector's sensitivity to government spending and geopolitical events.
- The current oversold technicals suggest a potential short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish.
The outlook for DFEN is currently bearish, driven by its significant technical underperformance and oversold indicators. The ETF is trading well below its key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $69.40 and the 200-day SMA at $72.43 acting as strong resistance levels. The RSI below 30 further supports the notion of a strong downtrend.
For the outlook to shift positively, DFEN would need to break decisively above its short-term (20-day EMA) and longer-term (50-day and 200-day SMA) resistance levels, accompanied by improving momentum indicators. Until then, the potential for further downside remains significant, especially given its leveraged structure and sector-specific risks.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
How does any other asset move with DFEN? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Key Statistics
| Yield | 10.81% |
|---|---|
| Day High | $52.95 |
| Day Low | $50.80 |
| 52 Week High | 97.75 |
| 52 Week Low | 50.28 |
The Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (DFEN) is heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, with 100% of its assets allocated to this area, primarily through stocks (24.23%) and other index-linked exposures (72.05%), with minimal cash holdings (3.73%). The fund's strategy is to provide amplified daily returns of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index, making its fundamental health tied to the performance and outlook of this specific industry segment.
The expense ratio for DFEN is 0.96%, costing $96.00 per $10,000 invested annually. The fund's net assets stand at $335,238,784 as of September 26, 2026. While the fund's own performance has shown positive returns over longer periods like 3-year (59.36%) and 5-year (30.97%), its recent performance is negative, with a 19.51% gain over the past year being overshadowed by recent declines.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
As a leveraged ETF tracking an index, DFEN's earnings analysis focuses on the aggregate earnings trends of the underlying aerospace and defense companies. The sector's performance is influenced by government defense spending, commercial aircraft demand, and technological advancements. Positive earnings momentum among the top constituents of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index would typically support the fund's objective, but recent negative price action suggests that broader market sentiment or sector-specific headwinds are currently outweighing any positive earnings signals.
The fund's objective is to deliver three times the daily performance of its benchmark index. Therefore, any significant shifts in the earnings outlook for major aerospace and defense companies, such as large contract wins or significant order cancellations, would directly impact the index and, consequently, DFEN's daily returns. The current oversold technical indicators suggest that market participants may be anticipating a downturn in the sector's earnings or outlook.
Key Risks
The primary risk for DFEN is its leveraged nature, which amplifies both gains and losses, making it highly volatile and unsuitable for long-term holding. Its significant concentration in the Aerospace & Defense sector exposes it to sector-specific downturns, geopolitical events, and changes in government defense budgets. Also, the fund's recent sharp price decline, evidenced by oversold technical indicators, highlights the risk of substantial capital loss in a short period.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 22.75 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -5.44 |
| SMA 50 | 69.40 |
| SMA 200 | 72.43 |
DFEN Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in DFEN in May 2017 would be worth about $21,117 today, compared with about $32,344 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in DFEN today could grow to about $21,101 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $160,086 and a bear case around $2,781. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DFEN ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $70.09 for DFEN by 2030 in the base case, from $51.99 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $19.46. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DFEN's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $29.52 | $56.02 | $106 |
| 2028 | $24.39 | $60.36 | $149 |
| 2029 | $21.44 | $65.04 | $197 |
| 2030 | $19.46 | $70.09 | $252 |
| 2031 | $18.02 | $75.52 | $316 |
| 2032 | $16.94 | $81.38 | $391 |
| 2033 | $16.09 | $87.69 | $478 |
| 2034 | $15.42 | $94.49 | $579 |
| 2035 | $14.89 | $102 | $696 |
| 2036 | $14.46 | $110 | $832 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using DFEN's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.