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As of September 11, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) trades at $278.10. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $372.50, 33.9% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $372.50 across 12 analysts. RSI at 60 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $288.86.
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. NYSE
$278.10
-3.740 (-1.33%)
At close: Sep 11, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
71 / 100
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) is trading at $278.10, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($288.86 and $334.53), but shows positive momentum with its price above the 20-day EMA. The company's recent earnings have shown mixed results, with the latest quarter missing estimates by 9.34%. However, significant insider selling, totaling $48.9 million against $6.8 million in sales, signals strong management conviction. This activity, coupled with a 'Buy' consensus from Wall Street analysts and a median price target of $372.50, suggests potential for upside. The automotive retail sector is facing some revenue challenges, with GPI's revenue growth reported at -5.6% and projected to remain flat for the current year. Despite this, the company's P/E ratio of 11.66 is below the sector median of 20.8, indicating a potentially attractive valuation. The substantial insider purchases are a key bullish signal, potentially outweighing the near-term revenue concerns and mixed earnings performance.
GPI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$286.32
Day Range
$277.71 to $286.32
Prev Close
$281.84
Volume
6.6K
52-Week Range
$249.54 to $488.39
Market Cap
$3.32B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs VCR
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-44%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
GPI Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, GPI beat estimates 1 times. The stock rose 1 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
GPI Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+33.94% Upside
Median of 12 analysts (12-month)
$372.50
AI Technical Analysis
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($288.86 and $334.53), indicating a bearish trend in the medium to long term. However, the stock is positioned above its 20-day exponential moving average, suggesting some short-term positive momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.63, which falls within the neutral territory, implying neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Key support levels are not explicitly provided, but the current price action suggests that the 20-day EMA at $277.51 is acting as immediate support. Volume has been significantly below average recently, which could indicate a lack of strong conviction from traders. The chart structure, with prices below longer-term averages but above the short-term EMA, points to a period of consolidation or potential transition, with insider buying potentially providing a floor.
ProTips
- Significant insider buying totaling $48.9 million suggests strong conviction from management, potentially signaling an undervalued stock.
- Monitor the 20-day EMA at $277.51 as a key short-term support level; a break below could signal further weakness.
- Given the mixed earnings and negative revenue growth, consider position sizing carefully and maintaining a disciplined stop-loss strategy, potentially around 1.5x the daily volatility of 7.9% (implying a stop loss >11.85% away from entry).
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Substantial Insider Net Buying
Insiders have purchased $48.9 million in stock versus $6.8 million in sales, indicating strong confidence in the company's future prospects and potentially signaling an undervalued stock.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Attractive Valuation Relative to Peers
GPI's P/E ratio of 11.66 is significantly lower than the sector median of 20.8, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisBearish
Recent Revenue Decline and Earnings Misses
The company reported a -5.6% revenue growth and missed earnings estimates in its latest quarter, raising concerns about near-term performance.
Source: Earnings ReportNeutral
Mixed Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
While the overall consensus is 'Buy', analyst ratings show a mix of 'Overweight', 'Equal-Weight', and 'Neutral' ratings, with price targets ranging from $275 to $450.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) suggests a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $372.50 over the next 6-12 months, implying a 33.9% upside. This optimism is primarily driven by substantial insider selling and a valuation that appears attractive relative to sector peers. The company's ability to navigate current revenue headwinds and consistently meet earnings expectations will be critical for achieving this target. Potential catalysts for upside include a broader market recovery in the automotive sector, successful integration of any new dealership acquisitions, or improved consumer spending. Conversely, persistent revenue declines, increased competition, or unfavorable economic conditions could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing the downside projection of $135.96. The company's strategic initiatives and management's execution will be key determinants of its future performance.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 3.32B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.66 |
| EPS (TTM) | 24.17 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7731% |
| 52 Week High | 488.39 |
| 52 Week Low | 249.54 |
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) exhibits a P/E ratio of 11.66, which is notably lower than the sector median of 20.8, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $24.17. While the current revenue growth is negative at -5.6%, forward estimates indicate a slight recovery with projected revenue growth of 6.00% for next year, aligning with the sector median of 6.7%. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 12.5%, which is in line with the sector average. However, the recent earnings reports have shown misses against analyst expectations, with the latest quarter showing a -9.34% surprise. Despite these mixed earnings, the strong insider selling activity provides a positive fundamental signal, indicating management's confidence in the company's future prospects and potentially signaling that current valuation levels are attractive.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) has recently reported mixed earnings results. The most recent quarter ending July 30, 2026, saw EPS of $9.61, missing the analyst estimate of $10.60 by 9.34%, leading to a price decline of 3.35%. Prior quarters also showed misses, with the quarter ending January 29, 2026, missing estimates by 7.31%. However, the quarter ending January 7, 2026, did beat expectations by 9.79%. This pattern suggests some inconsistency in meeting analyst expectations, which could be a point of concern for investors.
Key Risks
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) faces risks related to its recent revenue decline of -5.6% and the mixed performance in meeting earnings estimates, as evidenced by the latest quarterly miss. The stock is also trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($288.86 and $334.53), indicating potential downward pressure or a period of recovery needed. Also, the automotive retail sector is subject to cyclical demand and competitive pressures, which could impact future sales and profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 59.63 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.22 |
| SMA 50 | 288.86 |
| SMA 200 | 334.53 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Neutral
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $288.86, 200-day: $334.53), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.32
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.23
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
GPI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$272.54
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$278.10
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$259.86
MAX LOSS
-4.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (59.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$286.16
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$299.79
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$313.42
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for GPI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in GPI in September 2016 would be worth about $46,007 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in GPI today could grow to about $29,741 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $183,725 and a bear case around $4,815. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
GPI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $430 for GPI by 2030 in the base case, from $278 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $136. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on GPI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $174 | $310 | $552 |
| 2028 | $153 | $346 | $781 |
| 2029 | $142 | $386 | $1,046 |
| 2030 | $136 | $430 | $1,360 |
| 2031 | $132 | $480 | $1,738 |
| 2032 | $131 | $535 | $2,192 |
| 2033 | $130 | $596 | $2,736 |
| 2034 | $130 | $665 | $3,390 |
| 2035 | $132 | $742 | $4,173 |
| 2036 | $134 | $827 | $5,109 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using GPI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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GPI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$48.9M
2 Transactions
Sold
$6.8M
4 Transactions
Insiders
13
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$9.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2023 | PEREIRA LINCOLN
Director
|
Sell | 40.0K | $8.3M |
| Mar 3, 2025 | KENNINGHAM DARYL A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 15.1K | $6.9M |
| Dec 9, 2021 | PEREIRA LINCOLN
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $6.1M |
| Oct 27, 2022 | HESTERBERG EARL J JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $5.2M |
| Mar 10, 2021 | HESTERBERG EARL J JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 20.0K | $3.4M |
| Aug 26, 2025 | PEREIRA LINCOLN
Director
|
Sell | 7.0K | $3.3M |
| Jan 11, 2018 | HESTERBERG EARL J JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $3.2M |
| Jan 9, 2018 | HESTERBERG EARL J JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $3.1M |
| Dec 5, 2019 | PEREIRA LINCOLN
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $3.1M |
| Dec 6, 2022 | HESTERBERG EARL J JR.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 15.0K | $2.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Group 1 Automotive, Inc.'s (GPI) current stock price and consensus rating?
As of September 11, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) is trading at $278.10. The consensus rating among Wall Street analysts is 'Buy', supported by a consensus score of 71 out of 100.
What is the median analyst price target for GPI stock?
The median analyst price target for Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) is $372.50, suggesting an upside potential of 33.9% from the current price of $278.10.
How has GPI performed in recent earnings reports?
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) has shown mixed earnings performance. The latest quarter ending July 30, 2026, missed estimates by 9.34%, and previous quarters have also seen some misses, though one quarter did beat expectations.
What are the key risks facing Group 1 Automotive, Inc.?
Key risks for GPI include a recent revenue decline of -5.6%, mixed earnings performance, and trading below its longer-term moving averages. The cyclical nature of the auto industry and competitive pressures also pose risks.
Is there significant insider activity in GPI stock?
Yes, there is significant insider selling activity in GPI. Insiders have purchased approximately $48.9 million worth of stock, far exceeding the $6.8 million in sales, indicating a 'Moderate Buy Signal' and strong management conviction.
How does GPI's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) has a P/E ratio of 11.66, which is considerably lower than the sector median of 20.8, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to other companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What is the long-range forecast for GPI stock?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case forecast for GPI stock in 2030 is $430.08, with a downside projection of $135.96 and an upside projection of $1360.49. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.