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As of October 11, 2026, Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) trades at $5.120. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $5.120, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $7.000 across 20 analysts. RSI at 56 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $5.276.
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON)
Peloton Interactive Inc. NASDAQ
$5.12
0.2000 (4.07%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
56 / 100
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) is currently trading at $5.12, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($5.28 and $5.31), indicating near-term bearish technicals. The company faces headwinds from declining revenue, with estimates for the next quarter and current year showing a negative growth rate of -3.00%. While the median analyst price target of $7.00 suggests a potential upside of 36.71%, this is tempered by significant insider selling totaling $37.2 million and a consensus rating of Hold from 20 analysts. The company's fundamental picture shows a negative return on equity of -45.24%, though its profit margin is positive at 2.58%. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative at -0.12, suggesting minimal debt. However, the forward-looking growth estimates are concerning, with a projected -22.7% revenue growth for next year and a steep -119.9% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, according to Wall Street estimates. This combination of declining revenue, negative equity returns, and substantial insider selling presents a challenging outlook.
PTON Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$4.92
Day Range
$4.87 to $5.13
Prev Close
$4.92
Volume
7.05M
52-Week Range
$3.65 to $9.20
Market Cap
$2.25B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+76%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
PTON Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, PTON beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
PTON Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+36.72% Upside
Median of 20 analysts (12-month)
$7.000
AI Technical Analysis
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($5.28 and $5.31), with the 50-day SMA at $5.28 and the 200-day SMA at $5.31, signaling a bearish trend. The stock is trading above its 20-day exponential moving average at $4.99, which may offer some short-term support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.94, indicating neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD is slightly negative at -0.076, suggesting a lack of strong bullish momentum. Volume on the latest trading day was 7.05 million shares, which is 19.2% below the average volume of 8.72 million shares, indicating subdued investor interest. Key support levels are near the current price, with the 20-day EMA acting as immediate support, while resistance lies at the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The current chart structure suggests a potential for further downside if the stock cannot reclaim these key moving averages.
ProTips
- Significant insider selling totaling $37.2 million suggests caution is warranted for Peloton (PTON).
- Peloton (PTON) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($5.28 and $5.31), indicating potential for further downside risk.
- Given the negative revenue growth estimates and weak long-term outlook, consider position sizing carefully for Peloton (PTON).
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Significant Insider Selling Exceeds $37 Million
Insiders have sold a total of $37.2 million worth of Peloton (PTON) stock across 169 transactions, indicating a lack of confidence in near-term prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Declining Revenue Growth Estimates
Wall Street revenue estimates project a 3.00% decline for the next quarter and current year, signaling headwinds for Peloton (PTON).
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Median Analyst Price Target Suggests Upside
The median analyst price target for Peloton (PTON) is $7.00, offering a potential upside of 36.71% from the current price.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Weak Long-Term Growth Projections
Peloton (PTON) faces a projected five-year compound annual growth rate of -119.9%, indicating significant long-term challenges.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesMarket Outlook
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) faces a challenging outlook, with current price action below key technical levels and negative revenue growth projections. The median analyst target price of $7.00 offers a potential upside, but this is counterbalanced by significant insider selling and a consensus rating of 'Hold'. The company's ability to reverse its declining revenue trend and improve its significantly negative return on equity will be critical for any sustained recovery. Key catalysts for a bullish shift would involve a significant turnaround in subscriber growth, successful product innovation, or a change in management strategy to address profitability. Conversely, continued revenue declines, failure to meet analyst expectations, or further negative insider activity could push the stock towards its downside projection of $0.99. The long-term growth estimates are particularly concerning, suggesting structural challenges that may be difficult to overcome.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 2.25B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.57 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.1400 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 9.20 |
| 52 Week Low | 3.65 |
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) exhibits a mixed fundamental profile, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.57, which is significantly higher than the sector average P/E of 20.8. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 0.92, below the sector average of 1.9, suggesting it is relatively cheaper on a sales basis. The company's return on equity is significantly negative at -45.24%, indicating inefficient use of shareholder capital, while its profit margin is a modest 2.58% and operating margin is 14.43%. The company's balance sheet shows a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.12, implying it has more cash and equivalents than debt. However, the forward-looking revenue growth estimates are concerning, with the next quarter and current year projected to decline by 3.00%. The long-term growth outlook is also weak, with next year's revenue growth estimated at -1.00% and a five-year compound annual growth rate projection of -119.9%. This suggests that despite a relatively low price-to-sales ratio, the company faces significant challenges in reversing its revenue decline and improving profitability.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, beating analyst estimates with an EPS of $0.13 against an expected $0.12, resulting in a positive price reaction of 3.18%. This follows a pattern of mixed performance, with a miss in the quarter ending March 2026 (EPS $0.06 vs. estimate $0.08) and a beat in the quarter ending December 2025 (EPS -$0.03 vs. estimate -$0.05). Revenue growth has been stagnant, with estimates for the next quarter and current year showing a 3.00% decline.
Key Risks
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) faces significant risks including substantial insider selling totaling $37.2 million, indicating a lack of confidence from management. Also, declining revenue estimates and a weak long-term growth outlook, with a projected five-year CAGR of -119.9%, pose a considerable threat to future profitability. The stock's current trading position below key moving averages also suggests ongoing technical weakness.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 55.94 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.08 |
| SMA 50 | 5.28 |
| SMA 200 | 5.31 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.40
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.36
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with PTON? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
PTON Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$5.069
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$5.120
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$4.655
MAX LOSS
-8.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (55.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$5.221
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$5.322
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$5.474
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PTON is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PTON in September 2019 would be worth about $1,988 today, compared with about $26,214 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PTON today could grow to about $4,092 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $31,041 and a bear case around $539. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PTON Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $3.58 for PTON by 2030 in the base case, from $5.12 today (0.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $0.9941. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PTON's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $2.47 | $4.68 | $8.89 |
| 2028 | $1.73 | $4.28 | $10.60 |
| 2029 | $1.29 | $3.92 | $11.88 |
| 2030 | $0.9941 | $3.58 | $12.90 |
| 2031 | $0.7815 | $3.28 | $13.72 |
| 2032 | $0.6233 | $3.00 | $14.39 |
| 2033 | $0.5027 | $2.74 | $14.92 |
| 2034 | $0.4089 | $2.50 | $15.34 |
| 2035 | $0.335 | $2.29 | $15.66 |
| 2036 | $0.2761 | $2.09 | $15.89 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PTON's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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PTON Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$37.2M
78 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$477.3K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2021 | LYNCH WILLIAM J JR.
President
|
Sell | 500.0K | $72.5M |
| Dec 22, 2020 | CORTESE THOMAS
Officer
|
Sell | 150.0K | $23.6M |
| Feb 8, 2021 | KUSHI HISAO T
Officer
|
Sell | 160.0K | $23.2M |
| Dec 14, 2020 | LYNCH WILLIAM J JR.
President
|
Sell | 163.5K | $20.0M |
| Jun 28, 2021 | CORTESE THOMAS
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 154.4K | $19.2M |
| Feb 16, 2021 | LYNCH WILLIAM J JR.
President
|
Sell | 116.7K | $17.4M |
| Jan 15, 2021 | FOLEY JOHN PAUL
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $16.0M |
| Feb 16, 2021 | FOLEY JOHN PAUL
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $14.9M |
| Feb 12, 2021 | BOONE KAREN
Director
|
Sell | 83.5K | $12.6M |
| Dec 15, 2020 | FOLEY JOHN PAUL
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 100.0K | $12.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Peloton's current stock price and consensus rating?
Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) is currently trading at $5.12 per share. The consensus rating among analysts is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 56 out of 100.
What is Peloton's projected stock price for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Peloton's projected stock price for 2030 is a base case of $3.58, with a downside projection of $0.99 and an upside projection of $12.90. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Are Peloton's recent earnings beats or misses?
Peloton's recent earnings have been mixed. They beat estimates for the quarter ending June 2026 with an EPS of $0.13 versus $0.12 expected, but missed estimates for the quarter ending March 2026 with an EPS of $0.06 versus $0.08 expected.
What is the outlook for Peloton's revenue growth?
Wall Street revenue estimates project a decline for Peloton. The next quarter and current year are expected to see a 3.00% decrease in revenue, with next year's revenue growth estimated at -1.00%.
What are the main risks facing Peloton stock?
Key risks for Peloton include significant insider selling totaling $37.2 million, declining revenue projections, and a weak long-term growth outlook. The stock is also trading below its key moving averages, indicating technical weakness.
How does Peloton's valuation compare to its sector averages?
Peloton's P/E ratio of 36.57 is higher than the sector average of 20.8, but its price-to-sales ratio of 0.92 is lower than the sector average of 1.9. The company's return on equity is significantly worse than the sector average.
What is the analyst median price target for Peloton?
The median analyst price target for Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) is $7.00, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 36.71% from the current stock price.