Jump to any asset
849 assets, updated daily
As of September 23, 2026, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) trades at $234.89. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $234.89, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $353.00 across 28 analysts. RSI at 20 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $287.50.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. NYSE
$234.89
-15.36 (-6.14%)
At close: Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is currently trading at $234.89, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($287.50 and $287.38), signaling a strong bearish trend. The company's fundamentals show a high profit margin of 23.54% and a return on equity of 44.67%, yet its valuation metrics, such as a price-to-sales ratio of 3.58, appear stretched relative to sector averages. A critical concern is the heavy insider selling, with over $643 million in dispositions and no insider purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Despite these headwinds, Wall Street analysts maintain a generally positive outlook, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' and a median price target of $353, implying a 50.3% upside. However, the significantly oversold RSI of 19.91 suggests that the stock is technically weak and could face further downward pressure. The company's forward growth estimates are also negative over the next five years, which warrants caution.
RCL Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$259.00
Day Range
$231.03 to $261.66
Prev Close
$250.25
Volume
8.34M
52-Week Range
$231.03 to $356.39
Market Cap
$62.82B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-26%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
RCL Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, RCL beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
RCL Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($287.50 and $287.38), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 19.91, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but also highlighting significant selling pressure. MACD is also negative at -13.24, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Volume has been significantly above average recently, with the latest volume at 8.34 million compared to an average of 2.81 million, indicating strong conviction behind the recent price action. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current trend, but the oversold condition may offer some temporary respite. However, the persistent heavy insider selling suggests that the downward pressure could continue.
ProTips
- Given the heavy insider selling exceeding $643 million, investors should closely monitor any changes in insider activity and management commentary for signs of confidence restoration.
- The stock is significantly oversold with an RSI of 19.91; consider waiting for technical confirmation of a bottom, such as a break above key moving averages or a bullish RSI divergence, before considering a long position.
- With negative long-term growth estimates, risk management is paramount. Consider tighter stop-loss orders given the current volatility and bearish technical setup.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $643 Million
Insiders have sold over $643 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating a strong lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
significantly Oversold Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 19.91 and the stock is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($287.50 and $287.38), suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Negative Long-Term Growth Projections
Forward-looking estimates show a negative compound annual growth rate of -146.3% over the next five years, posing a significant risk to future revenue and profitability.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
Despite current headwinds, 28 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $353, implying a 50.3% upside from the current price.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusBullish
Recent EPS Beat
The company reported an EPS beat for the quarter ending June 2026, exceeding estimates by 5.78%, which could signal operational resilience.
Source: Earnings ReportMarket Outlook
The base case for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) over the next 6-12 months is challenging, given the heavy insider selling and significantly oversold technical conditions. While analysts maintain a median price target of $353, suggesting significant upside, the current price action and negative insider sentiment cannot be ignored. The stock's current price of $234.89 is well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($287.50 and $287.38), and the RSI of 19.91 indicates extreme oversold conditions that could precede further declines. Potential catalysts for a turnaround would require a significant shift in insider sentiment, a strong recovery in technical indicators, and positive reassurances regarding future growth. Conversely, continued selling pressure from insiders, a failure to break out of oversold territory, or worsening long-term growth prospects could lead to further price depreciation. The negative five-year growth estimate of -146.3% is a significant overhang that needs to be addressed for a sustained bullish thesis to emerge.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 62.82B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.45 |
| EPS (TTM) | 16.20 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.28% |
| 52 Week High | 356.39 |
| 52 Week Low | 231.03 |
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) exhibits strong profitability with a net profit margin of 23.54% and a return on equity of 44.67%, significantly outperforming the sector median ROE of 12.4%. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.58, which is higher than the sector median of 1.9, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its revenue. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.25 is also considerably higher than the sector average of 2.25, indicating a leveraged balance sheet. While the company demonstrates strong operational efficiency, the current stock price is trading at a P/E ratio of 15.45, which is below the sector average P/E of 20.8. However, the negative long-term growth estimates (next 5 years at -146.3%) raise concerns about future expansion and profitability, making the current valuation appear less attractive in light of potential future headwinds.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with actual EPS of $4.21 beating the estimate of $3.98 by 5.78%, leading to a slight positive price change of 0.33%. Prior quarters also showed mixed results, including a beat in March 2026 and a miss in December 2025. The company has demonstrated an ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations in recent periods, but the overall trend in forward growth estimates is negative.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is the heavy insider selling, with over $643 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, signaling a strong lack of confidence from management. Technically, the stock is significantly oversold with RSI at 19.91 and trading well below key moving averages, indicating potential for further price declines. Additionally, the negative long-term growth projections for the next five years present a substantial risk to future revenue and profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 19.91 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -13.24 |
| SMA 50 | 287.50 |
| SMA 200 | 287.38 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 19.9 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.59
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.52
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.17
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with RCL? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
RCL Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$239.59
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$234.89
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$292.01
MAX LOSS
-21.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (19.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$227.61
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$215.63
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$203.65
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for RCL is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 23, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in RCL in September 2016 would be worth about $32,628 today, compared with about $35,806 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in RCL today could grow to about $25,534 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $193,715 and a bear case around $3,366. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
RCL Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $342 for RCL by 2030 in the base case, from $235 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $94.87. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on RCL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $136 | $258 | $490 |
| 2028 | $114 | $283 | $701 |
| 2029 | $103 | $311 | $944 |
| 2030 | $94.87 | $342 | $1,231 |
| 2031 | $89.56 | $375 | $1,573 |
| 2032 | $85.79 | $412 | $1,981 |
| 2033 | $83.09 | $453 | $2,467 |
| 2034 | $81.17 | $497 | $3,046 |
| 2035 | $79.87 | $546 | $3,734 |
| 2036 | $79.06 | $600 | $4,550 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using RCL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. RCL is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
RCL Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$643.0M
18 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$35.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2019 | A WILHELMSEN AS
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 4.8M | $554.7M |
| Feb 5, 2019 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 4.8M | $554.7M |
| Feb 27, 2026 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director
|
Sell | 771.6K | $243.6M |
| Feb 24, 2026 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director
|
Sell | 473.5K | $149.4M |
| Nov 21, 2024 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director
|
Sell | 619.4K | $145.7M |
| Aug 25, 2020 | A WILHELMSEN AS
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.0M | $126.9M |
| Aug 25, 2020 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director
|
Sell | 2.0M | $126.9M |
| Dec 14, 2023 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director
|
Sell | 1.0M | $120.5M |
| Nov 18, 2024 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director
|
Sell | 395.6K | $91.7M |
| Feb 17, 2026 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER
Director
|
Sell | 280.0K | $91.2M |
Page 1 of 1
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) stock a buy right now?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is currently rated as a 'Sell' with a consensus score of 21 out of 100. Despite a median analyst price target of $353, the stock is trading at $234.89, and heavy insider selling and significantly oversold technical conditions suggest significant downside risk.
What is RCL's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) has a projected base case price of $341.75 for 2030, with a downside projection of $94.87. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees, and reflect a wide range of potential future scenarios.
What are the biggest risks facing Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)?
The primary risks for RCL include substantial insider selling totaling over $643 million, a significantly oversold technical condition with an RSI at 19.9, and negative long-term growth estimates projecting a -146.3% compound annual growth rate over the next five years.
How does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) compare to its sector averages?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) shows stronger profitability with a ROE of 44.67% compared to the sector median of 12.4% and a higher profit margin of 23.54%. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 3.58 is higher than the sector median of 1.9, and its debt-to-equity ratio of 2.25 matches the sector median.
What is the Wall Street consensus on RCL stock?
Wall Street analysts collectively rate Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) as a 'Buy', with a consensus score of 70 out of 100. This is based on 3 'Strong Buy', 16 'Buy', and 9 'Hold' ratings, with no 'Sell' or 'Strong Sell' ratings.
How has Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) performed in recent earnings reports?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) most recently reported a 5.78% EPS beat for the quarter ending June 2026, with actual EPS of $4.21 versus an estimate of $3.98. Prior quarters showed mixed results, but the company has generally met or exceeded earnings expectations.
What is the current technical outlook for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)?
Technically, RCL is in a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($287.50 and $287.38), with a significantly oversold RSI at 19.9. Recent volume has been significantly above average, indicating strong conviction behind the downward price action.