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As of September 22, 2026, Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) trades at $80.23. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $118.50, 47.7% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $118.50 across 27 analysts. RSI at 34 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $92.47.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation NYSE
$80.23
1.800 (2.30%)
At close: Sep 21, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is currently trading at $80.23, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($92.47 and $102.24), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's fundamentals show a strong return on equity of 42.56% and a healthy profit margin of 18.36%, but this is juxtaposed with moderate insider selling totaling $1.9 million versus $200,319 in purchases. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $118.50, suggesting a potential upside of 47.7% from current levels. Despite the positive analyst outlook on valuation, the current technical setup and insider selling warrant caution. The company operates in the Footwear & Accessories industry within the Consumer Cyclical sector, which has a median P/E of 20.8 and revenue growth of 7.2%. DECK's P/E of 11.41 is below the sector average, and its revenue growth of 5.7% is slightly below the median, indicating it is not commanding a premium valuation despite its strong profitability metrics. Key risks include the bearish technical momentum and the recent insider selling activity.
DECK Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$79.38
Day Range
$77.93 to $80.77
Prev Close
$78.43
Volume
3.81M
52-Week Range
$77.37 to $122.29
Market Cap
$10.93B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-45%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
DECK Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, DECK beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
DECK Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
AI Technical Analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's stock is exhibiting bearish momentum, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($92.47 and $102.24), and its 20-day EMA ($83.29). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.24 further confirms this bearish sentiment, indicating it is not overbought and has room to fall before reaching oversold territory. Volume on the latest trading day was 3.81 million, slightly below the average of 3.87 million, suggesting a lack of strong conviction behind recent price action. The current price of $80.23 is significantly below the 200-day SMA, implying substantial overhead resistance. The MACD at -3.94 also points to a downward trend. Investors should monitor for any signs of a reversal or a break below current price levels.
ProTips
- Monitor the 50-day moving average at $92.47 as a key resistance level; a sustained break above this could signal a trend reversal.
- Given the moderate insider selling, investors should pay close attention to upcoming earnings calls for any management commentary that could justify or alleviate these concerns.
- The company's strong ROE and profit margins, coupled with a below-sector P/E, present a potential value opportunity if technicals and insider sentiment improve.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Moderate Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $1.9 million in stock versus $200,319 purchased, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($92.47 and $102.24), with a bearish RSI of 34.24, suggesting further downside potential.
Source: Technical Analysis DataBullish
Attractive Valuation Relative to Sector
DECK's P/E ratio of 11.41 is significantly lower than the sector median of 20.8, offering potential upside if market sentiment shifts positively.
Source: Fundamental Analysis DataBullish
Strong Profitability Metrics
The company demonstrates a high return on equity (42.56%) and profit margin (18.36%), indicating efficient operations and strong earnings power.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's base case outlook suggests a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $118.50, implying a 47.7% upside from the current $80.23. This target is supported by strong profitability metrics and a P/E ratio below the sector average. Analysts project revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year and 7.00% for the next year, with a strong 5-year average annual growth estimate of 21.44%. However, the immediate future is clouded by bearish technical indicators and moderate insider selling. A significant downside risk would be a failure to break above the 50-day moving average ($92.47), which could lead to further price declines towards the $44.77 Monte Carlo downside projection. Upside catalysts would need to include a clear reversal in technical momentum, positive commentary on future demand, and a reduction in insider selling activity.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 10.93B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.41 |
| EPS (TTM) | 7.03 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 122.29 |
| 52 Week Low | 77.37 |
Deckers Outdoor Corporation presents a mixed fundamental picture, with strong profitability metrics contrasting with a bearish technical outlook. The company boasts an impressive return on equity of 42.56% and a profit margin of 18.36%, significantly outperforming the sector median ROE of 12.4%. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.98 is in line with the sector median of 1.9, while its P/E ratio of 11.41 is notably lower than the sector median of 20.8, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to its earnings power. However, the company's revenue growth of 5.7% is slightly below the sector's median of 7.2%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 is healthy and below the sector median, indicating a manageable debt load. While profitability is strong, the current price action and insider selling suggest that the market may be pricing in future headwinds or a slowdown in growth, despite the attractive valuation multiples.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's recent earnings reports show a mixed performance. In the quarter to June 2026, the company reported an EPS of $0.94, beating the estimate of $0.87 by 8.05%, though the stock saw a slight decline of 0.2%. Prior to that, the quarter to March 2026 showed a significant miss, with an actual EPS of -$1.00 against an estimate of -$0.40, a surprise of -150%, leading to a 1.32% price drop. The company has demonstrated an ability to beat estimates, as seen in the quarter to March 2026 where it reported $0.43 versus an estimate of $0.16, a 168.75% surprise, although the stock reacted minimally. Overall, the earnings trajectory shows inconsistency, with strong beats followed by significant misses.
Key Risks
The primary risks for Deckers Outdoor Corporation stem from its bearish technical momentum, with the stock trading below key moving averages and exhibiting a bearish RSI. Additionally, moderate insider selling, with total sales exceeding purchases by nearly $1.7 million, signals a potential lack of confidence from management in the near term. The company's revenue growth of 5.7% is also slightly below the sector median, raising concerns about its ability to maintain market share against competitors.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 34.24 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -3.94 |
| SMA 50 | 92.47 |
| SMA 200 | 102.24 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $92.47, 200-day: $102.24), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.44
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.13
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
-0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with DECK? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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DECK Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$79.43
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$80.23
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$75.08
MAX LOSS
-5.5%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (34.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$81.81
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$83.40
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$85.78
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for DECK is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 22, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in DECK in September 2016 would be worth about $76,107 today, compared with about $35,616 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in DECK today could grow to about $36,073 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $204,252 and a bear case around $6,371. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
DECK Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $134 for DECK by 2030 in the base case, from $80.23 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $44.77. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on DECK's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $52.72 | $91.21 | $158 |
| 2028 | $47.76 | $104 | $225 |
| 2029 | $45.61 | $118 | $305 |
| 2030 | $44.77 | $134 | $401 |
| 2031 | $44.72 | $152 | $519 |
| 2032 | $45.23 | $173 | $664 |
| 2033 | $46.17 | $197 | $840 |
| 2034 | $47.49 | $224 | $1,056 |
| 2035 | $49.14 | $255 | $1,319 |
| 2036 | $51.11 | $289 | $1,639 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using DECK's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. DECK is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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DECK Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$200.3K
1 Transactions
Sold
$1.9M
7 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$260.6K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | POWERS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 36.0K | $14.4M |
| Jan 16, 2024 | POWERS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 18.0K | $12.9M |
| Jun 6, 2024 | POWERS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 11.0K | $11.9M |
| Dec 6, 2023 | STEFANO CAROTI
Officer
|
Sell | 14.7K | $10.1M |
| Nov 6, 2020 | POWERS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 34.0K | $9.2M |
| Nov 22, 2024 | POWERS DAVID A
Director
|
Sell | 32.0K | $6.1M |
| Nov 15, 2021 | YANG WENDY W
Officer
|
Sell | 14.4K | $6.1M |
| Mar 15, 2024 | POWERS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 6.0K | $5.5M |
| Jun 6, 2024 | STEFANO CAROTI
Officer
|
Sell | 5.0K | $5.4M |
| Feb 15, 2024 | POWERS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 6.0K | $5.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock a buy right now?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is currently rated as a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 59. While the median analyst price target of $118.50 suggests a 47.7% upside from the current price of $80.23, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and exhibits bearish technical momentum.
What is DECK's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Deckers Outdoor Corporation's stock price is projected to be $134.03 in 2030 as a base case, with a downside projection of $44.77 and an upside projection of $401.27. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How does DECK's valuation compare to its sector?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's P/E ratio of 11.41 is significantly lower than the Consumer Cyclical sector median of 20.8, and its price-to-sales ratio of 1.98 is in line with the sector median of 1.9. This suggests DECK may be undervalued relative to its peers, especially considering its strong profit margins.
What is the recent insider trading activity for DECK stock?
Insiders at Deckers Outdoor Corporation have been net sellers, with total sales of $1.9 million compared to $200,319 in purchases in recent filings. This moderate sell signal suggests a cautious sentiment among management.
What are the key risks facing Deckers Outdoor Corporation?
Key risks for DECK include its bearish technical trend, indicated by prices below moving averages and a low RSI, as well as significant insider selling. Additionally, its revenue growth is slightly below the sector average, potentially signaling competitive pressures.
How has DECK performed in recent earnings reports?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation has shown inconsistent earnings performance. While it beat estimates in the quarter to June 2026 by 8.05%, it significantly missed expectations in the quarter to March 2026 with an EPS miss of 150%. This mixed track record warrants close monitoring of future guidance.
What is the dividend policy for Deckers Outdoor Corporation?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation currently has a dividend yield of 0% and a dividend rate of 0%, indicating it does not pay dividends to shareholders at this time.