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As of September 9, 2026, Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) trades at $38.68. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $50.00, 29.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $50.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 34 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $44.90.
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE
$38.68
0.0100 (0.03%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is currently trading at $38.68, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($44.90 and $43.14), indicating near-term technical weakness. The company reported strong earnings beats in its most recent quarters, with Q2 2026 EPS exceeding estimates by 80.77%, though the stock reacted negatively. Despite the current price action, insiders are net sellers, investing $1.1 million against $306,534 in sales, signaling moderate confidence. Analysts maintain a consensus 'Hold' rating with a median price target of $50, suggesting a 29.3% upside potential. The airline sector is experiencing significant revenue growth, with Southwest projected to grow revenue by 18.00% in the current quarter and 19.00% in the next. This growth, coupled with insider buying, provides a foundation for potential recovery. However, the stock's current technical indicators, including a bearish RSI and trading below key moving averages, present immediate headwinds. Investors should monitor the company's ability to sustain earnings beats and capitalize on sector tailwinds to overcome the current bearish momentum.
LUV Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$37.89
Day Range
$37.75 to $38.82
Prev Close
$38.67
Volume
4.37M
52-Week Range
$29.26 to $55.11
Market Cap
$18.92B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-4% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
LUV Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, LUV beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
LUV Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+29.27% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$50.00
AI Technical Analysis
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $44.90 and its 200-day SMA of $43.14, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.88 is in bearish territory, suggesting further downside potential. The MACD is also negative at -1.82, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price around $38.68, with resistance seen at the 50-day SMA. Volume on recent trading days has been slightly above average, with the latest volume at 4.37 million shares compared to an average of 4.27 million. This indicates some level of investor interest, but not enough to overcome the prevailing bearish sentiment. The stock's positioning below its 20-day EMA further confirms the short-term downtrend. Investors should watch for a decisive break above the 50-day SMA to signal a potential trend reversal.
ProTips
- Monitor Southwest Airlines' ability to sustain its positive earnings surprise trend and translate strong revenue growth into upward price momentum, especially given the current bearish technical indicators.
- Consider the impact of fuel price volatility on Southwest Airlines' margins and overall profitability, as this remains a key variable for the airline industry.
- With a dividend yield of 1.86%, Southwest Airlines offers a modest income stream, but investors should prioritize capital appreciation given the current focus on growth and technical recovery.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Q2 2026 Earnings Beat
Southwest Airlines reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.94, significantly exceeding estimates by 80.77%, indicating strong operational performance.
Source: Company Earnings ReportBullish
Moderate Insider Buying Activity
Insiders have demonstrated net buying activity, with $1.1 million in purchases versus $306,534 in sales, signaling confidence in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Positive Revenue Growth Projections
Analysts forecast strong revenue growth for Southwest Airlines, with an estimated 18.00% increase for the current quarter and 19.00% for the next.
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Bearish Technical Indicators
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($44.90 and $43.14), and the RSI is in bearish territory, suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Negative Stock Reaction to Earnings
Despite strong earnings beats, Southwest Airlines' stock price has experienced negative reactions, indicating potential investor skepticism or broader market pressures.
Source: Market DataMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Southwest Airlines (LUV) over the next 6-12 months anticipates a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $50, driven by strong revenue growth projections and positive insider sentiment. The company is expected to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates, supported by an 18.00% revenue growth forecast for the current quarter. Achieving this target would represent a 29.3% upside from the current price. However, the outlook is tempered by significant technical headwinds, including the stock trading below key moving averages and a bearish RSI, which could prolong the current downtrend. Upside catalysts would include a decisive break above the 50-day SMA and sustained positive price reactions to earnings reports. Downside risks involve increased competition, volatile fuel prices, and a failure to translate strong revenue growth into sustained positive stock performance.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 18.92B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.42 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.60 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.86% |
| 52 Week High | 55.11 |
| 52 Week Low | 29.26 |
Southwest Airlines (LUV) exhibits a P/E ratio of 24.42, which is slightly below the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a relatively fair valuation compared to peers. The company's revenue growth of 16.4% is strong, outpacing the sector average of 10.0%. However, the current price-to-sales ratio is not provided, making a full valuation comparison difficult. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $1.60. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the dividend yield of 1.86% indicates a commitment to returning value to shareholders. While the valuation appears reasonable relative to the sector, the current technical weakness and the need to sustain earnings beats are key factors to consider.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Southwest Airlines (LUV) has demonstrated a strong pattern of earnings beats in its recent quarterly reports. Most notably, in Q2 2026, the company reported an EPS of $0.94, significantly exceeding the estimate of $0.52 by 80.77%. This follows a pattern of positive surprises, although the stock price reaction has been mixed, with a -6.19% drop after the Q2 2026 report. Prior quarters also showed EPS beats, with the exception of Q4 2025 where EPS of $0.45 missed estimates by 4.26%.
Key Risks
Southwest Airlines faces significant risks related to its current technical positioning, trading below key moving averages with bearish momentum indicators like the RSI. Competitive pressures within the airline industry and potential fluctuations in fuel costs represent ongoing operational challenges. Also, the stock's recent negative price reactions to strong earnings reports suggest investor sentiment may be cautious, potentially limiting upside even with positive fundamental data.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 33.88 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.82 |
| SMA 50 | 44.90 |
| SMA 200 | 43.14 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($44.90) above the 200-day SMA ($43.14), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.52
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.43
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.01
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
LUV Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$38.29
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$38.68
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$36.67
MAX LOSS
-4.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (33.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$39.44
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$40.21
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$41.36
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for LUV is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in LUV in September 2016 would be worth about $10,356 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in LUV today could grow to about $13,941 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $64,293 and a bear case around $3,023. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
LUV Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $44.18 for LUV by 2030 in the base case, from $38.68 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $16.80. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on LUV's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $24.66 | $39.99 | $64.84 |
| 2028 | $20.87 | $41.34 | $81.89 |
| 2029 | $18.50 | $42.73 | $98.72 |
| 2030 | $16.80 | $44.18 | $116 |
| 2031 | $15.50 | $45.67 | $135 |
| 2032 | $14.45 | $47.21 | $154 |
| 2033 | $13.59 | $48.81 | $175 |
| 2034 | $12.86 | $50.46 | $198 |
| 2035 | $12.23 | $52.16 | $222 |
| 2036 | $11.69 | $53.92 | $249 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using LUV's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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LUV Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.1M
9 Transactions
Sold
$306.5K
2 Transactions
Insiders
21
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$126.0K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2020 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.3M | $74.3M |
| Oct 28, 2024 | ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.2M | $35.9M |
| May 17, 2017 | KELLY GARY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 51.0K | $2.9M |
| Feb 22, 2018 | KELLY GARY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 38.8K | $2.2M |
| Dec 14, 2017 | JORDAN ROBERT E
Officer
|
Sell | 32.9K | $2.1M |
| Feb 23, 2021 | VAN DE VEN MICHAEL G
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 32.5K | $1.8M |
| Mar 2, 2018 | VAN DE VEN MICHAEL G
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 31.1K | $1.8M |
| Mar 8, 2021 | JORDAN ROBERT E
Officer
|
Sell | 28.8K | $1.7M |
| Feb 22, 2018 | KELLY GARY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 27.3K | $1.6M |
| Feb 25, 2021 | ROMO TAMMY
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 26.7K | $1.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock a buy right now?
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street with a median price target of $50, suggesting a 29.3% upside from the current price of $38.68. While insiders are net sellers and recent earnings have shown strong beats, the stock is trading below key technical levels, indicating caution is warranted.
What is LUV's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Southwest Airlines' (LUV) stock price is projected to reach a base case of $44.18 by 2030, with a downside scenario of $16.80 and an upside scenario of $116.16. These are statistical outcomes, not definitive price targets.
What are the key risks for Southwest Airlines (LUV)?
Key risks for Southwest Airlines (LUV) include its current bearish technical indicators, such as trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($44.90 and $43.14) and a bearish RSI. Competitive pressures and fuel cost volatility also pose ongoing operational challenges.
How has Southwest Airlines performed on earnings recently?
Southwest Airlines (LUV) has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, notably in Q2 2026 where EPS exceeded expectations by 80.77%. However, the stock price has reacted negatively to some of these positive earnings reports.
What is the revenue growth outlook for Southwest Airlines?
The revenue growth outlook for Southwest Airlines (LUV) is positive, with analysts projecting 18.00% year-over-year growth for the current quarter and 19.00% for the next quarter. Full-year revenue growth is estimated at 17.00%.
Are insiders buying or selling Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock?
Insiders at Southwest Airlines (LUV) are net buyers, with total purchases of $1.1 million compared to $306,534 in sales in recent filings. This indicates moderate confidence from management.
How does Southwest Airlines' valuation compare to its sector?
Southwest Airlines (LUV) has a P/E ratio of 24.42, which is slightly below the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a relatively fair valuation. Its revenue growth of 16.4% significantly outpaces the sector average of 10.0%.