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As of October 11, 2026, Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) trades at $41.66. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $41.66, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $50.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 49 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $41.87.
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE
$41.66
0.3000 (0.73%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is currently trading at $41.66, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($41.87 and $43.53), indicating a bearish short-term trend. Despite this, the stock exhibits moderate insider buying, with insiders purchasing $713.4K versus selling $306.5K over the last 45 transactions, signaling a degree of confidence. The company's fundamentals show a profit margin of 2.78% and a return on equity of 11.10%, which are below the sector medians of 3.38% and 17.8% respectively. However, revenue growth is strong at 16.4%, outpacing the sector average of 11.7%. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.67 is below the sector average of 4.0, suggesting potential undervaluation on a sales basis. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.97, aligning with the sector median.
LUV Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$41.02
Day Range
$40.62 to $41.74
Prev Close
$41.36
Volume
6.87M
52-Week Range
$29.26 to $55.11
Market Cap
$20.38B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-24%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
LUV Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, LUV beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
LUV Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+20.02% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$50.00
AI Technical Analysis
Southwest Airlines is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $41.87 and its 200-day SMA of $43.53, indicating a bearish technical posture. The RSI is at 49.26, falling within the neutral momentum range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The current price action suggests downward pressure. Volume on the latest trading day was 6.87 million shares, slightly above the average of 6.3 million, indicating moderate investor interest. The MACD at 0.173 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, but the overall trend remains challenged by the moving average crossovers.
ProTips
- Monitor Southwest Airlines' ability to sustain its strong revenue growth amidst competitive pressures and potential shifts in consumer travel demand.
- The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($41.87 and $43.53), suggesting caution for short-term traders until a clear upward trend is established.
- Given the moderate insider buying signal, consider the company's forward guidance and upcoming earnings reports as key indicators of management's confidence.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Insider Buying Signal
Insiders have made net purchases totaling $713.4K versus $306.5K in sales, indicating a moderate level of confidence in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Next quarter's revenue is estimated to grow by 20.00% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the sector average and signaling strong demand for Southwest's services.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
The stock is currently positioned below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($41.87 and $43.53), indicating a bearish short-term technical trend and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Mixed Analyst Sentiment
While the median analyst target price suggests a 20% upside, the consensus rating is 'Hold' with a significant number of 'Hold' ratings (11 out of 25 analysts), reflecting divided Wall Street opinion.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Southwest Airlines suggests a potential recovery towards its median analyst target price of $50.00, representing a 20% upside from the current price of $41.66. This projection is supported by strong revenue growth estimates and a moderate insider buying signal. Upside potential could be realized if the company consistently beats earnings expectations and demonstrates improved operational efficiency, leading to a re-rating by analysts. Conversely, a failure to break above key technical resistance levels, escalating competition, or adverse macroeconomic conditions could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing downside targets around $34.00 as indicated by the low analyst price target.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 20.38B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.74 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.60 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.73% |
| 52 Week High | 55.11 |
| 52 Week Low | 29.26 |
Southwest Airlines' valuation appears mixed, with a P/E ratio of 25.74, which is below the sector median of 34, suggesting it may be attractively priced relative to its earnings peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.67 is also significantly lower than the sector median of 4.0. The company's profit margin of 2.78% and operating margin of 3.38% are below sector averages, but its return on equity of 11.10% is respectable. Revenue growth of 16.4% is a strong positive, exceeding the sector average of 11.7%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97 is in line with the sector median, indicating a balanced capital structure.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Southwest Airlines recently reported an EPS of $0.94 for the quarter ending June 2026, significantly beating the estimate of $0.52 by 80.77%, though the stock price declined 6.19% on the news. Prior quarters showed mixed performance, with a miss in March 2026 and a beat in the preceding quarter. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with next quarter's revenue expected to increase by 20.00% year-over-year.
Key Risks
Southwest Airlines faces risks including its current trading position below key moving averages, suggesting potential for further downside. Competition within the airline industry remains intense, potentially pressuring margins and pricing power. Additionally, the company's reliance on fuel prices and operational efficiency can be impacted by external factors such as economic downturns or geopolitical events.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 49.26 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.17 |
| SMA 50 | 41.87 |
| SMA 200 | 43.53 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $41.87, 200-day: $43.53), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.53
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.45
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with LUV? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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LUV Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$41.24
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$41.66
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$39.54
MAX LOSS
-4.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (49.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$42.48
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$43.31
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$44.54
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for LUV is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in LUV in October 2016 would be worth about $10,470 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in LUV today could grow to about $14,028 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $64,642 and a bear case around $3,044. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
LUV Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $47.70 for LUV by 2030 in the base case, from $41.66 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $18.15. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on LUV's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $26.58 | $43.09 | $69.86 |
| 2028 | $22.51 | $44.58 | $88.28 |
| 2029 | $19.97 | $46.11 | $106 |
| 2030 | $18.15 | $47.70 | $125 |
| 2031 | $16.75 | $49.34 | $145 |
| 2032 | $15.63 | $51.04 | $167 |
| 2033 | $14.70 | $52.80 | $190 |
| 2034 | $13.93 | $54.61 | $214 |
| 2035 | $13.26 | $56.49 | $241 |
| 2036 | $12.68 | $58.44 | $269 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using LUV's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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LUV Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$713.4K
5 Transactions
Sold
$306.5K
2 Transactions
Insiders
21
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$145.7K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2020 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 2.3M | $74.3M |
| Oct 28, 2024 | ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 1.2M | $35.9M |
| May 17, 2017 | KELLY GARY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 51.0K | $2.9M |
| Feb 22, 2018 | KELLY GARY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 38.8K | $2.2M |
| Dec 14, 2017 | JORDAN ROBERT E
Officer
|
Sell | 32.9K | $2.1M |
| Feb 23, 2021 | VAN DE VEN MICHAEL G
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 32.5K | $1.8M |
| Mar 2, 2018 | VAN DE VEN MICHAEL G
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 31.1K | $1.8M |
| Mar 8, 2021 | JORDAN ROBERT E
Officer
|
Sell | 28.8K | $1.7M |
| Feb 22, 2018 | KELLY GARY C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 27.3K | $1.6M |
| Feb 25, 2021 | ROMO TAMMY
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 26.7K | $1.6M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is LUV stock's price forecast for 2030?
The long-range projection for LUV stock in 2030 indicates a base case price of $47.70, with a downside scenario at $18.15 and an upside scenario at $125.36, based on Monte Carlo simulations.
Is Southwest Airlines a buy right now?
Southwest Airlines is currently rated a 'Hold' with a consensus score of 59. While it shows moderate insider buying and strong revenue growth, it is trading below key technical levels, suggesting a cautious approach.
What are the key earnings trends for Southwest Airlines?
Southwest Airlines recently delivered a strong EPS beat for the quarter ending June 2026, reporting $0.94 against an estimate of $0.52. However, the stock experienced a price decline following this announcement, indicating market concerns beyond the earnings figures.
How does Southwest Airlines' valuation compare to its sector?
Southwest Airlines' P/E ratio of 25.74 and price-to-sales ratio of 0.67 are both below their respective sector medians, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to industry peers.
What is the outlook for Southwest Airlines' revenue growth?
Revenue growth is a strong point for Southwest Airlines, with a reported 16.4% and projected 20.00% year-over-year growth for the next quarter, significantly outpacing the sector average.
Are insiders buying or selling Southwest Airlines stock?
insiders are net sellers of Southwest Airlines stock, with total purchases of $713.4K compared to $306.5K in sales in recent filings, indicating a moderate buy signal.
What are the main risks facing Southwest Airlines?
Key risks include intense industry competition, sensitivity to fuel price fluctuations, and the current bearish technical trend indicated by the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($41.87 and $43.53).