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As of October 11, 2026, Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) trades at $52.85. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $52.85, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $81.00 across 23 analysts. RSI at 30 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $64.25.
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR)
Builders FirstSource Inc. NYSE
$52.85
-0.9600 (-1.78%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is currently trading at $52.85, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($64.25 and $84.34), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company's recent earnings have shown negative surprises, with EPS estimates for the current quarter and next quarter also trending downwards. Despite a 'Hold' consensus from 23 analysts and a median price target of $81.0, suggesting a 53.3% upside, the stock's fundamental picture is challenged by an -8.8% revenue growth and a high P/E ratio of 57.45 compared to sector averages. Insiders have been net buyers, with significant purchases totaling $60.7 million against minimal sales, signaling some confidence. However, the company's profit margin of 0.71% and operating margin of 3.33% are considerably lower than sector medians, and its revenue growth has turned negative. The current price action and recent earnings misses warrant caution, even with the potential upside indicated by analyst targets.
BLDR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$53.67
Day Range
$52.06 to $53.81
Prev Close
$53.81
Volume
1.92M
52-Week Range
$52.06 to $131.50
Market Cap
$5.69B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+69%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
BLDR Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, BLDR beat estimates 1 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
BLDR Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
AI Technical Analysis
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is exhibiting bearish momentum, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($64.25 and $84.34). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30.49 further confirms this bearish sentiment, indicating the stock is in oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also negative, suggesting downward pressure on the stock price. Key support levels are being tested as the stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($64.25 and $84.34). Volume has been below average recently, which could indicate a lack of conviction behind the current price action. The current chart structure suggests that the stock may continue to face selling pressure unless a significant catalyst emerges to reverse the trend.
ProTips
- Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for signs of sustained revenue growth and margin improvement, as recent performance has been mixed.
- Given the bearish technicals, consider waiting for a confirmed trend reversal or a break above key resistance levels before initiating new long positions.
- The significant insider buying activity is a positive signal, but it should be considered alongside the company's fundamental performance and broader market conditions.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Insider Buying Activity
Insiders have purchased $60.7 million worth of BLDR stock against minimal sales, indicating strong conviction from management in the company's future prospects.
Source: Insider TransactionsBullish
Projected Return to Revenue Growth
Analysts forecast a return to positive revenue growth in the next quarter (+2.00%) and next year (+3.00%), which could support a re-rating of the stock if achieved.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Negative Revenue Growth and Profitability Concerns
The company's recent -8.8% revenue growth and significantly lower profit margins compared to sector averages pose a substantial risk to its valuation.
Source: Company FundamentalsBearish
Bearish Technical Trend
BLDR is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($64.25 and $84.34) with oversold RSI levels, suggesting continued downward pressure in the short term.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) over the next 6-12 months is cautious, with the stock facing headwinds from declining revenue and profitability. While Wall Street's median price target of $81.0 suggests significant upside, the current bearish technicals and high valuation relative to its current performance present considerable challenges. The company's ability to return to consistent profitability and positive revenue growth will be key to realizing this upside. Potential catalysts for upside include a successful execution of projected revenue growth in the coming quarters and a broader market recovery in the industrials sector. Conversely, a failure to meet earnings expectations, continued negative revenue trends, or increasing competition could lead to further price declines, potentially testing the lower end of analyst targets around $61.0.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 5.69B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.45 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.9200 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 131.50 |
| 52 Week Low | 52.06 |
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) presents a mixed fundamental picture, trading at a P/E ratio of 57.45, significantly higher than the Industrials sector median of 34. Its price-to-sales ratio of 0.39 is below the sector average of 4, suggesting it may be undervalued on a sales basis. However, the company's return on equity (2.51%) and profit margin (0.71%) are substantially lower than the sector medians of 17.8% and the implied sector average, respectively. The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.31, which is in line with the sector average. While revenue growth has recently turned negative at -8.8%, Wall Street analysts project a return to positive growth in the next quarter (+2.00%) and next year (+3.00%), with a 5-year average growth estimate of 31.1%. This projected growth, however, needs to be weighed against the current valuation and profitability concerns.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) recently reported mixed earnings, with the quarter to June 2026 showing an EPS beat of $2.84 versus an estimate of $2.80, though this was accompanied by an -8.03% price drop. The prior quarter to March 2026 missed estimates significantly, with actual EPS of $0.27 against a $0.37 estimate, leading to a -4.26% stock decline. The company's earnings performance has been volatile, with a notable decline in year-over-year EPS for the current year estimates.
Key Risks
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) faces significant risks including its high P/E ratio of 57.45 relative to the sector median of 34, coupled with recent negative revenue growth of -8.8%. The stock's bearish technicals, trading below key moving averages with a low RSI, suggest further downside potential. Additionally, the company's profit margins are considerably weaker than industry averages, indicating potential operational inefficiencies or competitive pressures.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 30.49 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -2.85 |
| SMA 50 | 64.25 |
| SMA 200 | 84.34 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $64.25, 200-day: $84.34), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.43
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.11
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with BLDR? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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BLDR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$52.32
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$52.85
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$49.68
MAX LOSS
-5.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (30.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$53.89
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$54.94
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$56.51
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for BLDR is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in BLDR in October 2016 would be worth about $47,272 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BLDR today could grow to about $30,081 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $212,042 and a bear case around $4,267. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BLDR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $82.10 for BLDR by 2030 in the base case, from $52.85 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $23.88. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BLDR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $31.82 | $59.00 | $109 |
| 2028 | $27.50 | $65.87 | $158 |
| 2029 | $25.23 | $73.54 | $214 |
| 2030 | $23.88 | $82.10 | $282 |
| 2031 | $23.04 | $91.66 | $365 |
| 2032 | $22.55 | $102 | $464 |
| 2033 | $22.30 | $114 | $585 |
| 2034 | $22.24 | $128 | $732 |
| 2035 | $22.33 | $142 | $908 |
| 2036 | $22.55 | $159 | $1,121 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using BLDR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. BLDR is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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BLDR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$60.7M
4 Transactions
Sold
$571.9K
2 Transactions
Insiders
24
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$10.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2024 | STEINKE CRAIG ARTHUR
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $4.6M |
| Mar 13, 2024 | BOYDSTON CORY JACOBS
Director
|
Sell | 17.5K | $3.5M |
| Dec 10, 2021 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 38.0K | $3.0M |
| Feb 27, 2025 | RUSH DAVID E.
Director
|
Sell | 18.0K | $2.5M |
| May 7, 2019 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 149.2K | $2.5M |
| Aug 6, 2019 | MCALEENAN DONALD F
General Counsel
|
Sell | 125.4K | $2.4M |
| Mar 3, 2022 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $2.3M |
| May 13, 2019 | CROW MICHAEL CHAD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 123.7K | $2.0M |
| Jun 14, 2022 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 35.0K | $1.9M |
| May 9, 2019 | MCALEENAN DONALD F
General Counsel
|
Sell | 116.3K | $1.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Builders FirstSource Inc. stock a buy right now?
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts with a consensus score of 59. While insiders have been net buyers, the stock is trading below key moving averages and has experienced recent earnings misses, warranting a cautious approach.
What is the median analyst price target for BLDR stock?
The median analyst price target for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is $81.0, suggesting a potential upside of 53.3% from its current price of $52.85.
How has Builders FirstSource Inc. performed in recent earnings reports?
In the quarter to June 2026, BLDR reported EPS of $2.84, slightly beating estimates, but the stock fell 8.03%. The preceding quarter to March 2026 saw a significant EPS miss and a 4.26% stock decline, indicating recent earnings volatility.
What are the key financial risks for Builders FirstSource Inc.?
Key financial risks include a high P/E ratio of 57.45 compared to the sector median, negative revenue growth of -8.8%, and profit margins significantly below industry averages, despite projected future growth.
What is the technical outlook for BLDR stock?
The technical outlook for BLDR is bearish, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($64.25 and $84.34) and exhibiting oversold conditions on the RSI (30.5).
Are insiders buying or selling Builders FirstSource Inc. stock?
Insiders have been net buyers of Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) stock, with total purchases of $60.7 million significantly outweighing total sales of $571,912, indicating a moderate buy signal.
How does BLDR's revenue growth compare to its sector?
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) has experienced negative revenue growth of -8.8%, which is considerably weaker than the Industrials sector median revenue growth of 11.7%.