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As of September 11, 2026, Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) trades at $60.54. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $81.00, 33.8% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $81.00 across 23 analysts. RSI at 26 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $70.94.
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR)
Builders FirstSource Inc. NYSE
$60.54
1.565 (2.65%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is currently trading at $60.54, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($70.94 and $89.38), signaling a bearish technical trend. Despite recent revenue declines of 8.8% year-over-year, the company has seen substantial insider buying totaling $60.7 million, indicating management confidence. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Hold' rating with a median price target of $81, suggesting a potential 33.8% upside, though revenue estimates for the current year project a 6.00% decrease. The stock's oversold RSI of 25.62 suggests a potential for a short-term bounce, but the broader trend and declining top-line performance present considerable risks.
BLDR Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$59.57
Day Range
$58.40 to $61.00
Prev Close
$58.97
Volume
41.8K
52-Week Range
$58.13 to $151.03
Market Cap
$6.34B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+163%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
BLDR Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+33.81% Upside
Median of 23 analysts (12-month)
$81.00
AI Technical Analysis
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($70.94 and $89.38), indicating a bearish trend over the medium to long term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 25.62, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term reversal or bounce. MACD is also negative at -3.10, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Volume has been significantly below average recently, with the latest volume at 41,791 compared to a 2,325,489 average, indicating a lack of conviction behind the current price action. Key support levels are implied by the current price, while resistance is expected around the 50-day SMA.
ProTips
- Given the oversold RSI of 25.62, consider monitoring for potential short-term buying opportunities, but be aware of the prevailing bearish trend and declining revenue.
- The substantial insider buying of $60.7 million provides a degree of confidence, but ensure this is corroborated by improving fundamental performance before committing significant capital.
- As Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) operates in the building products sector, monitor housing market trends and interest rate movements, as these macro factors significantly influence demand for its products.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Significant Insider Buying Activity
Insiders have purchased $60.7 million worth of BLDR stock against only $571,912 in sales, signaling strong confidence from management and a 'Moderate Buy Signal'.
Source: Insider Trading DataBullish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 25.62, indicating the stock is oversold and may be due for a technical bounce or short-term price appreciation.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Declining Revenue Trend
Builders FirstSource Inc. reported an 8.8% year-over-year revenue decline, and current year estimates project a further 6.00% decrease, posing a risk to future profitability.
Source: Revenue EstimatesBearish
Below Moving Average Price Action
The stock is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($70.94 and $89.38), indicating a bearish technical trend and potential for further downside.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The outlook for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is cautiously neutral, with a median analyst target price of $81 suggesting a potential 33.8% upside from the current price. However, this optimism is tempered by a high P/E ratio and recent negative revenue growth. The company's ability to reverse the top-line decline and improve profitability will be critical in achieving this target. The oversold technical conditions may provide a near-term catalyst for a rebound, but sustained growth will depend on broader market conditions and the company's operational execution.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 6.34B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 67.01 |
| EPS (TTM) | 0.8800 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 151.03 |
| 52 Week Low | 58.13 |
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a high P/E ratio of 67.01, significantly above sector averages, suggesting it may be overvalued relative to its earnings. The reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 is low, and the negative revenue growth of -8.8% year-over-year further complicates the valuation. While the company has substantial insider buying, this is contrasted by a lack of strong forward revenue growth projections, with the next year's revenue growth estimated at only 4.00%. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the current valuation metrics coupled with declining revenue warrant caution.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) recently reported earnings for Q2 2026, with actual EPS of $2.84 beating the estimate of $2.80 by 1.43%, although the stock price declined 8.03% on the news. The prior quarter's earnings showed a miss, with actual EPS of $0.27 falling short of the $0.37 estimate by 27.03%, leading to a 4.26% price drop. This pattern of inconsistent earnings performance and negative price reactions highlights volatility and uncertainty surrounding the company's profitability.
Key Risks
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) faces significant risks including its elevated P/E ratio of 67.01, which appears stretched given the negative revenue growth of -8.8%. The stock is trading well below its key moving averages, indicating a bearish technical trend. Also, recent earnings reports have shown mixed results with negative price reactions, suggesting investor concerns about future profitability and growth.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 25.62 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -3.10 |
| SMA 50 | 70.94 |
| SMA 200 | 89.38 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $70.94, 200-day: $89.38), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 25.6 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.44
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.35
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
BLDR Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$59.93
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$60.54
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$55.32
MAX LOSS
-7.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (25.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$61.73
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$62.93
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$64.72
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
BLDR is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.53%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in BLDR in September 2016 would be worth about $46,543 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BLDR today could grow to about $29,886 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $210,827 and a bear case around $4,237. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
BLDR Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $93.80 for BLDR by 2030 in the base case, from $60.54 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $27.26. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BLDR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $36.41 | $67.54 | $125 |
| 2028 | $31.45 | $75.35 | $181 |
| 2029 | $28.84 | $84.07 | $245 |
| 2030 | $27.26 | $93.80 | $323 |
| 2031 | $26.29 | $105 | $417 |
| 2032 | $25.71 | $117 | $530 |
| 2033 | $25.41 | $130 | $668 |
| 2034 | $25.32 | $145 | $834 |
| 2035 | $25.41 | $162 | $1,035 |
| 2036 | $25.65 | $181 | $1,276 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using BLDR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. BLDR is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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BLDR Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$60.7M
4 Transactions
Sold
$571.9K
2 Transactions
Insiders
25
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$10.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2024 | STEINKE CRAIG ARTHUR
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $4.6M |
| Mar 13, 2024 | BOYDSTON CORY JACOBS
Director
|
Sell | 17.5K | $3.5M |
| Dec 10, 2021 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 38.0K | $3.0M |
| Feb 27, 2025 | RUSH DAVID E.
Director
|
Sell | 18.0K | $2.5M |
| May 7, 2019 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 149.2K | $2.5M |
| Aug 6, 2019 | MCALEENAN DONALD F
General Counsel
|
Sell | 125.4K | $2.4M |
| Mar 3, 2022 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 30.0K | $2.3M |
| May 13, 2019 | CROW MICHAEL CHAD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 123.7K | $2.0M |
| Jun 14, 2022 | SHERMAN FLOYD F
Director
|
Sell | 35.0K | $1.9M |
| May 9, 2019 | MCALEENAN DONALD F
General Counsel
|
Sell | 116.3K | $1.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current consensus rating for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR)?
The current consensus rating for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is 'Hold', based on a weighted score of 64 out of 100. This rating reflects a balance of analyst opinions and technical indicators.
What is the median Wall Street price target for BLDR stock?
The median Wall Street price target for BLDR stock is $81.00, with a high estimate of $100 and a low of $61.00. This suggests a potential upside of 33.8% from the current price of $60.535.
Is Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) technically oversold?
Yes, Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is technically oversold, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently at 25.62. This indicates that the stock may be due for a short-term bounce or reversal.
What are the recent earnings trends for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR)?
Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) recently reported mixed earnings. While Q2 2026 EPS beat estimates by 1.43%, the stock price fell 8.03%. The prior quarter saw an EPS miss of 27.03%, with a 4.26% price decline.
What is the revenue growth outlook for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR)?
The revenue growth outlook for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) is currently negative, with a year-over-year decline of 8.8% reported. Current year revenue estimates project a 6.00% decrease, with a modest 4.00% growth expected next year.
Are there significant insider transactions for BLDR stock?
Yes, there has been substantial insider buying for BLDR stock, with total purchases amounting to $60.7 million against $571,912 in sales, indicating a 'Moderate Buy Signal' and net buying activity from insiders.
What are the key risks facing Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR)?
Key risks for Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR) include its high P/E ratio of 67.01, a bearish technical trend indicated by prices below moving averages, and declining revenue growth. The stock's recent earnings performance has also been inconsistent, contributing to investor uncertainty.
What is Builders FirstSource Inc.'s stock price prediction for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Builders FirstSource Inc.'s stock price prediction for 2030 has a base case of $93.80, a downside projection of $27.26, and an upside projection of $322.70. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.