Stock·NYSE·Industrials
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
- Market cap
- $83.23B
- P/E
- 17.61
- Dividend yield
- 6.71%
- Street target
- $116.00median of 29 analysts
- 52-week range
- $85.24 $122.41
The short version
Where UPS stands today, in four lines, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
UPS at a glance
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Hold, 58/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($99.54 and $104.72).
- Earnings UPS beat estimates in 7 of its last 8 quarters, yet fell the next day after 5 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $2.7M and bought $1.5M over the last 18 months.
- Valuation P/E of 17.6 against 34.0 for the Industrials sector: a discount to peers (-48%).
Figures as of October 16, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is currently trading at $97.83, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($99.54 and $104.72), indicating a bearish technical trend.
The company offers a dividend yield of 6.71%, providing income for investors. Recent earnings have shown mixed performance, with a slight beat in the latest quarter but a negative surprise in the quarter prior. Insider transactions show a moderate sell signal, with total sales of $2.7 million against $1.5 million in purchases, suggesting some caution from management. The company operates in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry within the Industrials sector, facing competition from other logistics providers.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from UPS's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
Price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $97.83 is 1.7% below the 50-day simple moving average of $99.54.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 6.6% below the 200-day simple moving average of $104.72.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($99.54) is 4.9% below the 200-day average ($104.72), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 34% of its 52-week range, between $85.24 and $122.41.
UPS share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far UPS has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where UPS sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
Fundamentals
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
5/5P/E below the sector median ›
The trailing P/E of 17.61 is 48.2% below the Industrials median of 34.0.P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.91 is 77.3% below the sector median of 4.0.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was $4.6B on revenue of $89.9B, a net margin of 5.1%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
UPS beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.Pays a dividend ›
The trailing dividend yield is 6.71%, or $6.56 a share a year.
Key statistics
The headline figures for UPS.
As of October 16, 2026, UPS trades at $97.83, with a market value of $83.23B, a P/E ratio of 17.61 and a dividend yield of 6.71%.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of UPS's valuation, growth and risks.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) exhibits a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 17.61, which is below the sector median of 34.00, suggesting it is trading at a discount relative to its peers.
The company's Price-to-Sales ratio stands at 0.91, also below the sector median of 4.00. With a Return on Equity of 29.60%, UPS outperforms the sector average of 17.80%. However, its Profit Margin of 5.08% is below the sector median, and its Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.90 is in line with the sector average. Revenue growth of 7.6% is below the sector's median growth of 11.7%.
UPS against the Industrials sector
How UPS compares with the median Industrials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to earnings vs sector: UPS trades at a notable discount to sector peers (-48%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
Return vs XLI: Since May 5, 2025, UPS has gained 2.4% against a gain of 24.7% for XLI.
Performance against XLI
UPS and the Industrials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much UPS sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
Revenue growth: Revenue fell 2.6% in FY2025 to $88.7B, from $91.1B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 6.3% in FY2025, down from 6.3% the year before.
Profitable: UPS earned $5.6B in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did UPS beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: UPS beat the analyst estimate in 7 of the last 8 quarters.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 5 of those 7 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026after close | $1.66 | $1.76 | +6.02% | -0.92% | +3.39% |
| Apr 28, 2026after close | $1.02 | $1.07 | +4.90% | +2.57% | -5.65% |
| Jan 27, 2026after close | $2.20 | $2.38 | +8.18% | -3.26% | +4.34% |
| Oct 28, 2025after close | $1.30 | $1.74 | +33.85% | +1.08% | -3.23% |
| Jul 29, 2025after close | $1.57 | $1.55 | -1.27% | -4.03% | -4.47% |
| Apr 29, 2025after close | $1.38 | $1.49 | +7.97% | -1.48% | -3.02% |
| Jan 30, 2025after close | $2.53 | $2.75 | +8.70% | -0.58% | -1.24% |
| Oct 24, 2024after close | $1.62 | $1.76 | +8.64% | -0.66% | -3.10% |
As of October 16, 2026, UPS has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reported quarters and fell in the first trading session after 5 of those beats; its latest report, on July 28, 2026, came in 6.02% above the estimate and the stock moved -0.92% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
AI analysis and technicals
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
2/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 54.7, in neutral territory.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 54.7 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank AI analysis of UPS
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $99.54 and its 200-day SMA of $104.72, signaling a bearish trend.
The 14-day RSI is at 54.74, indicating neutral momentum. The 20-day EMA at $95.71 is currently acting as support, with the price trading above it. Volume on the latest trading day was 5.9 million shares, exceeding the average volume of 4.6 million shares by 28.8%, suggesting increased investor interest. The CCI at 242.42 indicates strong upward momentum, contrasting with the moving average positioning.
Strong Return on Equity ›
UPS's Return on Equity of 29.60% significantly outperforms the sector median of 17.80%, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisAttractive Dividend Yield ›
The company offers a substantial dividend yield of 6.71%, providing a consistent income stream for shareholders.
Source: Dividend DataMixed Earnings Performance ›
While the latest earnings report showed a beat, prior quarters have seen mixed results, suggesting earnings consistency remains a point to watch.
Source: Earnings Analysis
Moderate Insider Selling Signal ›
Insiders have sold $2.7 million worth of shares versus $1.5 million purchased, indicating a moderate sell signal that could weigh on sentiment.
Source: Insider TransactionsBelow Key Moving Averages ›
UPS is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($99.54 and $104.72), signaling a bearish technical trend that may persist.
Source: Technical Analysis
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for UPS, from its daily closes.
As of October 16, 2026, with UPS at $97.83, its 14-day RSI is 54.7 (neutral territory), its 50-day simple moving average is $99.54 and its 200-day is $104.72.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 16, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).
What UPS moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 16, 2026, UPS's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.38 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.30 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.00 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.08 with gold (XAU).
What Wall Street expects
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
1/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
14 of 29 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 12 a hold and 3 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $116.00 is 18.6% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
14 of 29 rate it a buy now, against 14 of 29 three months ago.
UPS Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Buy |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Neutral |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Overweight |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform |
As of October 16, 2026, 29 Wall Street analysts cover UPS: 14 rate it a buy or strong buy, 12 a hold and 3 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $76.00 to $135.00, with a median of $116.00, 18.6% above the price of $97.83.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
A trade plan, if you want one
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
UPS trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from UPS's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much UPS tends to move, against the market and on its own.
The long record
UPS's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
1/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 1.65% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 56.2%, from February 2022 to August 2025; the price is still 45.3% below that peak.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
51% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $13,312, against $42,525 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
UPS Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 16, 2026, UPS's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -56.2% (February 2022 to August 2025); it is still 45.3% below that peak, and 51% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into UPS in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: UPS trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $13,312 against $42,525.
A $10,000 investment in UPS in October 2016 would be worth about $13,312 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,525 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to UPS, and which have not.
Strongest month, July: an average of +5.51%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, February: an average of -4.59%, up in 4 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged +0.96%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, UPS's strongest calendar month has been July (average +5.51%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest February (average -4.59%, up in 4 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
Long-term scenarios
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in UPS, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in UPS today could grow to about $12,884 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $40,357 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $4,113. The simulation models price only; at today's 6.71% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
UPS Stock Price Prediction: 2030
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $108 for UPS by 2030 in the base case, from $97.83 today (1.1x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $52.59. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on UPS's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $69.93 | $100 | $144 | |
| 2028 | $61.76 | $103 | $171 | |
| 2029 | $56.48 | $106 | $197 | |
| 2030 | $52.59 | $108 | $223 | |
| 2031 | $49.53 | $111 | $249 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of UPS's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.
Insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
UPS insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Insider buying: Insiders bought $1.5M on the open market and sold $2.7M.
As of October 16, 2026, UPS insiders reported 1 open-market sale worth $2.7M and 3 open-market purchases worth $1.5M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Norman Michael Brothers Jr.
Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $2.7M |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Christiana Smith Shi
Director
|
Buy | 500 | $44.1K |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Carol B. Tome
Chief Executive Officer
|
Buy | 11.7K | $1.0M |
| Jul 31, 2025 | William R Johnson
Director
|
Buy | 5.0K | $432.5K |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
Questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 16, 2026.