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As of September 26, 2026, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades at $13.87. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $13.87, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $17.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 64 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $14.17.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ
$13.87
0.5200 (3.90%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
At $13.87, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.17 and $13.89), indicating a bearish short-term trend. The stock's current valuation is below the sector median for Price-to-Sales, but its negative EPS and profit margin highlight ongoing profitability challenges. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus, with a median price target of $17.00 suggesting 22.6% upside from current levels, though the overall analyst score is 59/100. Recent earnings have shown positive surprises, particularly in the latest quarter, with revenue growth projected to accelerate to 18.00% year-over-year for the current quarter. Despite positive revenue trends and a substantial cash position relative to market cap, significant insider selling totaling $7 million over 42 transactions weighs on sentiment, with a 'Moderate Sell Signal' verdict. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is negative, indicating more cash than debt, but the negative EPS and profit margin remain key concerns. The airline industry faces ongoing volatility, and while AAL shows signs of operational improvement, the path to consistent profitability and sustained upside remains uncertain.
AAL Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$13.58
Day Range
$13.38 to $13.97
Prev Close
$13.35
Volume
76.00M
52-Week Range
$10.09 to $18.79
Market Cap
$9.18B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+28%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
AAL Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 2 quarters, AAL beat estimates 1 times. The stock rose 1 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
AAL Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+22.57% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$17.00
AI Technical Analysis
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is currently trading at $13.87, below its 50-day SMA of $14.17 and 200-day SMA of $13.89, signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 63.81, indicating bullish momentum, but the MACD is negative at -0.187, suggesting downward pressure. The stock is trading above its 20-day EMA of $13.41, which acts as immediate support. Key resistance levels are observed at the 50-day SMA ($14.17) and the 200-day SMA ($13.89). Volume has been slightly below average, with the latest volume at 76 million compared to an average of 81 million, indicating a lack of strong conviction behind recent price movements. The current chart structure suggests a period of consolidation or potential further downside if key moving averages continue to act as resistance.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; recent significant selling by insiders warrants caution.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.17 and $13.89), suggesting potential for further downside if these levels continue to act as resistance.
- Given the ongoing profitability challenges, investors should consider the company's ability to manage costs and debt effectively to ensure long-term viability.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Forward estimates indicate strong revenue growth for American Airlines, with current quarter revenue expected to increase by 18.00% year-over-year, signaling strong demand.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive EPS Surprises in Recent Quarters
American Airlines has beaten EPS estimates in the last two reported quarters, including a significant 200% surprise in the quarter ending June 2026, indicating improving operational efficiency.
Source: Earnings ReportsBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold approximately $7 million worth of stock across 42 transactions, resulting in a 'Moderate Sell Signal' which may indicate a lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.17 and $13.89), suggesting bearish momentum and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) suggests a potential stabilization and modest recovery, driven by accelerating revenue growth and positive earnings surprises. Analysts project revenue to grow by 18.00% year-over-year in the current quarter and 17.00% in the next, with a median price target of $17.00 indicating a 22.6% upside. The company's strong revenue growth and favorable debt-to-equity ratio provide a foundation for potential improvement. However, significant headwinds remain, including persistent insider selling and negative EPS. The stock's current trading below key moving averages suggests near-term caution is warranted. Upside catalysts could include continued strong revenue performance and successful cost management, while downside risks involve a potential slowdown in travel demand, increased competition, or a failure to achieve consistent profitability, which could lead to further price depreciation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 9.18B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.4900 |
| Dividend Yield | None (suspended) |
| 52 Week High | 18.79 |
| 52 Week Low | 10.09 |
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) exhibits a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.16, which is below the sector median of 4.0, suggesting it may be undervalued on a sales basis. However, the company reports a negative EPS of -0.49 and a net profit margin of -0.56%, indicating it is currently loss-making. The return on equity is also negative at -2.98%, further underscoring profitability challenges. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is -0.09, which is favorable as it implies cash exceeds debt. Despite the negative profitability metrics, revenue growth has been positive at 16.3%, with forward estimates projecting strong revenue acceleration in the coming quarters. This suggests that while the company is growing its top line, it is struggling to translate that growth into net profits, making its current valuation metrics difficult to interpret definitively.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $0.15, significantly beating the estimated $0.05 by 200% and leading to a 6.78% stock price increase. The prior quarter, ending March 2026, also saw an EPS beat of 13.04% with an actual EPS of -0.40 against an estimate of -0.46, resulting in a 2.72% stock price rise. However, the quarter ending December 2025 missed estimates by 10.53%, with an EPS of 0.34 versus 0.38, though the stock still saw a 2.43% gain. This pattern of recent earnings beats, coupled with strong revenue growth projections, suggests improving operational performance. The company's ability to consistently beat EPS estimates in the last two reported quarters, despite overall negative profitability for the year, indicates positive momentum that could support future performance.
Key Risks
A significant risk for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is the ongoing insider selling, with $7 million in sales across 42 transactions, signaling a 'Moderate Sell Signal' from management. The stock is also trading below key moving averages, indicating potential downward pressure. Also, despite revenue growth, the company's persistent negative EPS and profit margin present a fundamental challenge to achieving sustained profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 63.81 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.19 |
| SMA 50 | 14.17 |
| SMA 200 | 13.89 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($14.17) above the 200-day SMA ($13.89), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.55
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.48
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.22
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with AAL? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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AAL Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$13.73
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$13.87
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$12.77
MAX LOSS
-7.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (63.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$14.14
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$14.42
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$14.83
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for AAL is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AAL in September 2016 would be worth about $3,971 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AAL today could grow to about $8,090 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $61,372 and a bear case around $1,066. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AAL Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $12.74 for AAL by 2030 in the base case, from $13.87 today (0.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $3.54. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AAL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $7.15 | $13.58 | $25.77 |
| 2028 | $5.37 | $13.29 | $32.90 |
| 2029 | $4.29 | $13.02 | $39.49 |
| 2030 | $3.54 | $12.74 | $45.90 |
| 2031 | $2.98 | $12.47 | $52.28 |
| 2032 | $2.54 | $12.21 | $58.68 |
| 2033 | $2.19 | $11.96 | $65.15 |
| 2034 | $1.91 | $11.71 | $71.71 |
| 2035 | $1.68 | $11.46 | $78.36 |
| 2036 | $1.48 | $11.22 | $85.12 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AAL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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AAL Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$7.0M
7 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$1.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2018 | PARKER WILLIAM DOUGLAS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 224.6K | $11.8M |
| Oct 31, 2016 | NOCELLA ANDREW P
Officer
|
Sell | 171.4K | $7.0M |
| Dec 28, 2016 | PARKER WILLIAM DOUGLAS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 113.7K | $5.5M |
| Jun 2, 2017 | KERR DEREK J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 104.2K | $5.2M |
| Nov 17, 2016 | EBERWEIN ELISE R
Officer
|
Sell | 89.6K | $4.0M |
| Feb 6, 2017 | ISOM ROBERT D JR
President
|
Sell | 59.8K | $2.7M |
| Aug 2, 2017 | EBERWEIN ELISE R
Officer
|
Sell | 50.0K | $2.5M |
| Jun 25, 2026 | SEYMOUR DAVID
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 125.8K | $2.2M |
| Jan 29, 2018 | KERR DEREK J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 39.7K | $2.1M |
| Feb 5, 2018 | HART MATTHEW J
Director
|
Sell | 35.2K | $1.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is American Airlines (AAL) stock a buy right now?
American Airlines (AAL) stock is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 59/100. While recent earnings have shown positive surprises and revenue growth is projected to accelerate, significant insider selling and the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.17 and $13.89) suggest caution. The median analyst price target of $17.00 implies 22.6% upside, but profitability remains a concern.
What is the outlook for American Airlines (AAL) revenue growth?
American Airlines (AAL) is projected to experience strong revenue growth in the near term. Current quarter revenue estimates show a year-over-year increase of 18.00%, with next quarter and the current year also expected to see strong growth of 17.00% and 16.00%, respectively. This positive top-line trajectory is a key factor supporting the analyst consensus.
What are the key risks facing American Airlines (AAL)?
Key risks for American Airlines (AAL) include persistent insider selling totaling $7 million, a 'Moderate Sell Signal' from management, and the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($14.17 and $13.89). Additionally, the company's negative EPS and profit margin remain significant challenges despite positive revenue trends.
How does American Airlines (AAL) compare to sector averages?
American Airlines (AAL) shows a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.16, which is significantly lower than the sector median of 4.0. However, its Return on Equity is -2.98%, compared to the sector median of 17.8%, and its revenue growth of 16.3% outpaces the sector's median of 11.7%. The company's debt-to-equity is negative, indicating a strong balance sheet relative to peers.
What is the Wall Street consensus for American Airlines (AAL)?
The Wall Street consensus for American Airlines (AAL) is 'Hold', supported by 25 analysts. The consensus score is 59/100, with 10 Buy ratings, 11 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings. The median price target is $17.00, suggesting a 22.6% upside from the current price.
What is the long-term projection for AAL stock?
The long-term projection for AAL stock, based on Monte Carlo simulations for 2030, indicates a base case price of $12.74 and a downside scenario of $3.54. The upside scenario projects a price of $45.90, though these are statistical outcomes and not guaranteed price targets.
How have recent earnings impacted American Airlines (AAL) stock?
Recent earnings reports have positively impacted American Airlines (AAL) stock, with the company beating EPS estimates in the last two reported quarters. The quarter ending June 2026 saw a significant 200% EPS surprise, leading to a 6.78% stock price increase, suggesting improving operational performance.