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As of September 11, 2026, Johnson Controls International (JCI) trades at $146.23. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $161.00, 10.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $161.00 across 21 analysts. RSI at 56 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $144.78.
Johnson Controls International (JCI)
Johnson Controls International NYSE
$146.23
3.415 (2.39%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Johnson Controls International (JCI) is currently trading at $146.23, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($144.78 and $135.34), indicating a generally positive technical trend. The company has demonstrated consistent earnings beats over the last four reported quarters, with the most recent quarter exceeding estimates by 9.23%. Revenue growth is projected to be around 9.00% for the current quarter and 8.00% for the full year, suggesting continued top-line expansion. However, a significant concern arises from heavy insider selling, with total sales amounting to $56.8 million against only $1 million in purchases, signaling potential headwinds or a lack of insider confidence despite the positive operational metrics. The stock's valuation, with a P/E ratio of 40.23, appears elevated compared to sector averages, suggesting that current price levels may not offer substantial upside without further fundamental catalysts.
JCI Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$144.50
Day Range
$144.29 to $146.34
Prev Close
$142.81
Volume
41.8K
52-Week Range
$103.82 to $157.06
Market Cap
$86.51B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+58%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
JCI Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+10.10% Upside
Median of 21 analysts (12-month)
$161.00
AI Technical Analysis
At $146.23, Johnson Controls International is trading above its 50-day SMA of $144.78 and its 200-day SMA of $135.34, indicating a generally bullish trend in the medium to long term. The RSI is at 56.37, which is in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and MACD is slightly negative at -0.58, hinting at a potential consolidation or slight weakening of momentum. The stock is also trading above its 20-day EMA of $144.24. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA, while resistance may be found near recent highs. Volume has been significantly below average recently, which could imply a lack of conviction behind current price movements.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely, as the current heavy selling pressure from insiders warrants caution despite positive operational metrics.
- Given the elevated P/E ratio of 40.23 compared to the sector average of 25.5, consider a more conservative entry point or await clearer signals of sustained insider buying to validate the current valuation.
- With a dividend yield of approximately 1.05%, JCI may appeal to income-focused investors, but the current valuation and insider selling trends suggest prioritizing capital appreciation potential over dividend income.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $56.8 million worth of JCI stock against only $1 million in purchases, indicating a significant lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling upcoming headwinds.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Elevated Valuation Relative to Sector
Johnson Controls International's P/E ratio of 40.23 is substantially higher than the sector average of 25.5, suggesting the stock may be overvalued and vulnerable to a valuation reset.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisBullish
Consistent Earnings Beats
The company has a strong track record of exceeding analyst EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 9.23% surprise, indicating operational efficiency and effective management.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Positive Revenue Growth Projections
Projected revenue growth of approximately 9.00% for the current quarter and 8.00% for the full year suggests continued expansion and market demand for JCI's products and services.
Source: Revenue EstimatesNeutral
Mixed Wall Street Consensus
While the median price target suggests a modest upside, the Wall Street consensus is 'Hold', with a split of 1 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 8 Hold, and 2 Strong Sell ratings, indicating divided analyst sentiment.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Johnson Controls International suggests a potential upside of 10.1% to a median analyst target price of $161.00 over the next 6-12 months, supported by consistent earnings beats and projected revenue growth of approximately 8-9%. The company's ability to continue exceeding EPS estimates and maintain its revenue trajectory will be key drivers. However, the significant insider selling and a P/E ratio nearly double the sector average introduce considerable risk, potentially capping upside and increasing vulnerability to market downturns or sector rotation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 86.51B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.23 |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.55 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.05% |
| 52 Week High | 157.06 |
| 52 Week Low | 103.82 |
Johnson Controls International's current P/E ratio stands at 40.23, which is notably higher than the sector average of 25.5, suggesting the stock may be trading at a premium. While the company has a strong revenue growth projection of 9.00% for the current quarter and 8.00% for the year, its elevated valuation warrants caution. The most recent EPS was $1.42, beating estimates by 9.23%, and the company has a history of positive earnings surprises. However, the significant insider selling activity, with $405.8M in total sales versus $1.3M in total purchases, raises concerns about management's near-term outlook despite the positive operational performance and revenue growth.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Johnson Controls International has consistently beaten earnings per share estimates over the last four reported quarters, with the most recent quarter ending July 29, 2026, showing an actual EPS of $1.42 against an estimate of $1.12, a positive surprise of 9.23%. This beat was accompanied by a 3.2% increase in stock price. Prior quarters also showed positive surprises, indicating a pattern of exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue growth is also projected to remain strong, with an estimated 9.00% year-over-year increase for the current quarter.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Johnson Controls International stems from significant insider selling totaling $56.8 million, which contrasts sharply with only $1 million in insider purchases, signaling potential concerns among management. Additionally, the stock's P/E ratio of 40.23 is substantially higher than the sector average of 25.5, indicating a potentially overvalued position that could be vulnerable to market corrections or sector rotation. While earnings have consistently beaten estimates, the elevated valuation and insider selling pressure present considerable downside risk.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 56.37 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.58 |
| SMA 50 | 144.78 |
| SMA 200 | 135.34 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($144.78) above the 200-day SMA ($135.34), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.63
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.61
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.25
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.09
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
JCI Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$144.76
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$146.23
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$140.42
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (56.4) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$149.11
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$152.00
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$156.34
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for JCI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in JCI in September 2016 would be worth about $30,978 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in JCI today could grow to about $24,911 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $78,234 and a bear case around $7,932. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
JCI Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $211 for JCI by 2030 in the base case, from $146 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $102. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on JCI's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $112 | $160 | $230 |
| 2028 | $105 | $176 | $293 |
| 2029 | $103 | $192 | $360 |
| 2030 | $102 | $211 | $434 |
| 2031 | $103 | $231 | $518 |
| 2032 | $104 | $253 | $614 |
| 2033 | $106 | $277 | $722 |
| 2034 | $109 | $303 | $845 |
| 2035 | $112 | $332 | $985 |
| 2036 | $116 | $364 | $1,144 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using JCI's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
JCI Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.0M
1 Transactions
Sold
$56.8M
21 Transactions
Insiders
26
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.6M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2025 | OLIVER GEORGE R SR
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 410.3K | $36.6M |
| Feb 7, 2025 | OLIVER GEORGE R SR
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 410.3K | $35.7M |
| Feb 14, 2025 | OLIVER GEORGE R SR
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 325.8K | $29.0M |
| Nov 21, 2024 | OLIVER GEORGE R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 293.5K | $24.4M |
| Feb 26, 2025 | OLIVER GEORGE R SR
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 253.7K | $21.3M |
| Mar 14, 2025 | OLIVER GEORGE R SR
Director
|
Sell | 200.0K | $15.9M |
| Nov 25, 2024 | OLIVER GEORGE R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 180.7K | $15.1M |
| Aug 3, 2021 | OLIVER GEORGE R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 176.8K | $12.7M |
| May 8, 2026 | SCHLITZ LEI ZHANG
Officer
|
Sell | 88.8K | $12.5M |
| Jul 6, 2021 | OLIVER GEORGE R
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 176.8K | $12.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Johnson Controls International stock a buy right now?
Johnson Controls International (JCI) is currently rated as 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $161.00, suggesting a 10.1% upside from the current price of $146.23. While the company has a history of beating earnings estimates and shows positive revenue growth, significant insider selling and a high P/E ratio of 40.23 present considerable risks.
What is Johnson Controls International's price target for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Johnson Controls International's projected price range for 2030 is between $102.15 and $434.42, with a base case of $210.66. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets or guarantees.
What are the biggest risks facing Johnson Controls International?
The most significant risks for Johnson Controls International include heavy insider selling totaling $56.8 million and an elevated P/E ratio of 40.23, which is considerably higher than the sector average. These factors suggest potential overvaluation and a lack of insider confidence despite positive operational performance.
How has Johnson Controls International performed in recent earnings reports?
Johnson Controls International has consistently beaten earnings per share estimates in its last four reported quarters. The most recent quarter saw an EPS beat of 9.23%, with the stock price reacting positively by 3.2%.
What is the revenue growth outlook for Johnson Controls International?
Revenue growth for Johnson Controls International is projected to be strong, with an estimated 9.00% year-over-year increase for the current quarter and an 8.00% increase expected for the current year.
How does Johnson Controls International compare to its sector peers?
Johnson Controls International's P/E ratio of 40.23 is significantly higher than the sector average of 25.5. While its revenue growth is projected to be strong, the valuation suggests it is trading at a premium compared to its industry peers.
What is the consensus rating for Johnson Controls International stock?
The Wall Street consensus rating for Johnson Controls International is 'Hold', with 21 analysts covering the stock. The consensus score is 60 out of 100, reflecting a balanced view between buy and hold recommendations.