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As of September 9, 2026, CSX Corporation (CSX) trades at $48.37. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $54.00, 11.6% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $54.00 across 25 analysts. RSI at 32 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $50.17.
CSX Corp (CSX)
CSX Corp NASDAQ
$48.37
-0.6300 (-1.29%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
CSX Corp is currently trading at $48.37, below its 50-day and 20-week moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term technical trend. The company has demonstrated consistent earnings beats over the past few quarters, with the most recent quarter showing a 3.85% EPS surprise and a 5.77% stock price increase. Revenue growth has been solid, projected at 10.00% year-over-year for the current quarter and 8.00% for the full year, supported by a positive long-term outlook. However, significant insider selling, totaling $18.6 million against $3 million in purchases, signals a degree of caution from management. Wall Street analysts maintain a generally positive stance with a 'Buy' consensus rating (68/100 score) and a median price target of $54, implying an 11.6% upside. The sector averages show CSX trading at a premium on a P/E basis (28.67 vs. sector average of 25.5), but its revenue growth aligns with the sector. Key risks include the current bearish technical momentum and the moderate insider selling signal, which temper the otherwise positive fundamental and analyst outlook.
CSX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$48.63
Day Range
$48.27 to $48.92
Prev Close
$49.00
Volume
8.97M
52-Week Range
$31.80 to $53.60
Market Cap
$89.60B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (0.0154% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
CSX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CSX beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
CSX Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+11.64% Upside
Median of 25 analysts (12-month)
$54.00
AI Technical Analysis
CSX Corp is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $50.17 and its 20-day EMA of $49.95, indicating bearish short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.64 is in 'BEARISH' territory, suggesting further downside potential. The stock is trading above its 200-day SMA of $43.31, which acts as a key support level. Near-term resistance is observed around the $50.17 (50-day SMA) and $49.95 (20-day EMA) levels. The current price of $48.37 is approaching the $43.31 support. Volume has been slightly below its average, with 8.97 million shares traded versus an average of 9.27 million, suggesting a lack of strong conviction behind the current price action.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; while recent selling is moderate, a significant increase could signal waning management confidence.
- The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating bearish short-term momentum. Consider waiting for a technical confirmation of a trend reversal before initiating new positions.
- With a P/E ratio above the sector average, ensure that future revenue and earnings growth meet or exceed expectations to justify the current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Consistent Earnings Beats
CSX Corp has exceeded earnings per share estimates in its last four reported quarters, most recently by 3.85% on July 22, 2026, which drove a 5.77% stock price increase, indicating strong operational execution.
Source: Company Earnings ReportsBullish
Positive Revenue Growth Projections
The company is projected to achieve 10.00% revenue growth year-over-year for the current quarter and 8.00% for the full year, signaling continued business expansion and demand for its services.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $18.6 million worth of stock against $3 million in purchases across 52 transactions, resulting in a moderate insider selling verdict, which may indicate reduced management confidence in the near-term stock performance.
Source: Insider Transaction DataBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($50.17) and 20-day EMA ($49.95), with an RSI of 31.64 in 'BEARISH' territory, suggesting potential for further price declines in the short term.
Source: Technical Analysis DataMarket Outlook
CSX Corp is expected to maintain its positive long-term trajectory, driven by consistent revenue growth and its essential role in North American logistics. The median analyst target price of $54 suggests an 11.6% upside from the current price of $48.37. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates further supports this outlook, indicating operational strength and effective management. However, the near-term outlook is tempered by bearish technical signals and moderate insider selling. A break below the $43.31 support level could signal a more significant downturn. Conversely, a sustained move above the 50-day SMA ($50.17) and positive news flow regarding infrastructure investments or increased shipping volumes could propel the stock towards its price targets and potentially challenge higher resistance levels.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 89.60B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.67 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.72 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.14% |
| 52 Week High | 53.60 |
| 52 Week Low | 31.80 |
CSX Corp's P/E ratio of 28.67 is above the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a valuation premium relative to its peers. However, its revenue growth of 10.1% is strong and aligns with the sector average of 10.0%. The company's profitability, as indicated by its EPS of $1.72, supports the current valuation, though it is not explicitly compared against sector ROE or debt-to-equity ratios. The forward revenue growth estimates are positive, with the current year projected at 8.00% and next year at 5.00%, indicating continued expansion. While the valuation appears somewhat stretched compared to sector averages on a P/E basis, the consistent revenue growth and positive analyst outlook suggest underlying business strength.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
CSX Corp has a recent track record of beating earnings estimates, with the latest quarter on July 22, 2026, showing an EPS of $0.54 against an estimate of $0.52, a 3.85% surprise that coincided with a 5.77% stock price increase. This follows a pattern of positive surprises in the preceding quarters, indicating operational efficiency and effective cost management. The company's revenue growth has also been strong, with current quarter estimates showing a 10.00% year-over-year increase.
Key Risks
The primary risks for CSX Corp include its current bearish technical momentum, evidenced by trading below key moving averages and a low RSI, which could lead to further price declines in the short term. Additionally, moderate insider selling, with over $18 million in sales against $3 million in purchases, suggests a degree of caution from management regarding the stock's near-term prospects. The valuation also appears stretched compared to sector averages on a P/E basis.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 31.64 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.35 |
| SMA 50 | 50.17 |
| SMA 200 | 43.31 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($50.17) above the 200-day SMA ($43.31), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.45
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
CSX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$47.89
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$48.37
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$46.45
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (31.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$49.32
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$50.28
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$51.72
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for CSX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in CSX in September 2016 would be worth about $52,707 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CSX today could grow to about $31,456 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $96,237 and a bear case around $10,282. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
CSX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $76.50 for CSX by 2030 in the base case, from $48.37 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $37.72. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CSX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $38.09 | $54.24 | $77.25 |
| 2028 | $36.89 | $60.83 | $100 |
| 2029 | $36.97 | $68.22 | $126 |
| 2030 | $37.72 | $76.50 | $155 |
| 2031 | $38.91 | $85.79 | $189 |
| 2032 | $40.46 | $96.21 | $229 |
| 2033 | $42.33 | $108 | $275 |
| 2034 | $44.50 | $121 | $329 |
| 2035 | $46.97 | $136 | $392 |
| 2036 | $49.73 | $152 | $465 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CSX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
CSX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$3.0M
2 Transactions
Sold
$18.6M
9 Transactions
Insiders
20
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.0M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2019 | MANTLE RIDGE, L.P.
Unknown
|
Sell | 3.5M | $234.6M |
| Apr 30, 2021 | HILAL PAUL C
Director
|
Sell | 1.9M | $192.7M |
| Jan 25, 2019 | MANTLE RIDGE, L.P.
Director
|
Sell | 2.8M | $179.1M |
| Jan 24, 2019 | MANTLE RIDGE, L.P.
Director
|
Sell | 1.9M | $125.5M |
| Mar 7, 2017 | MANTLE RIDGE, L.P.
Unknown
|
Sell | 1.7M | $84.0M |
| Apr 29, 2020 | HILAL PAUL C
Director
|
Sell | 700.0K | $47.8M |
| Feb 20, 2024 | GOLDMAN NATHAN DOUGLAS
Officer
|
Sell | 244.5K | $9.0M |
| Jun 3, 2026 | BOONE KEVIN S
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 136.7K | $6.4M |
| Sep 8, 2021 | WALLACE MARK KENNETH
Officer
|
Sell | 161.5K | $5.1M |
| May 10, 2021 | WALLACE MARK KENNETH
Officer
|
Sell | 48.0K | $5.0M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSX Corp stock a buy right now?
CSX Corp is currently rated as 'Hold' by our AI consensus and 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts. While recent earnings have been positive and revenue growth is strong, the stock is trading below key technical levels and exhibits moderate insider selling, suggesting a cautious approach is warranted.
What is CSX Corp's long-term outlook?
CSX Corp has a positive long-term outlook, with projected revenue growth of 8.00% for the current year and 5.00% for the next. The median Wall Street price target of $54 suggests potential upside, and the company's role in essential logistics infrastructure supports sustained demand.
What are the key risks for CSX Corp investors?
Key risks include bearish technical indicators, such as trading below moving averages and a low RSI, which could pressure the stock price. Significant insider selling also raises concerns about management's short-term confidence, and the current P/E ratio is above the sector average.
How has CSX Corp performed in recent earnings reports?
CSX Corp has consistently beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters. The latest report on July 22, 2026, showed an EPS of $0.54 versus an estimate of $0.52, leading to a 5.77% stock price increase.
What is the Wall Street consensus for CSX Corp stock?
The Wall Street consensus for CSX Corp is 'Buy', with a score of 68 out of 100. This is based on 25 analysts, including 4 'Strong Buy', 13 'Buy', 6 'Hold', 1 'Sell', and 1 'Strong Sell' rating. The median price target is $54.
What is CSX Corp's stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, CSX Corp's stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $76.50, a downside projection of $37.72, and an upside projection of $155.17. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How does CSX Corp's valuation compare to its sector?
CSX Corp's P/E ratio of 28.67 is higher than the sector average of 25.5, indicating a valuation premium. However, its revenue growth aligns with the sector average, suggesting that the premium may be justified by its growth prospects.