Stock·NYSE·Industrials
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK)
- Market cap
- $3.90B
- Dividend yield
- None
- Street target
- $50.50median of 16 analysts
- 52-week range
- $32.33 $60.63
ALK stock forecast today
Where ALK stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
ALK at a glance
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK): Sell, 31/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($39.60 and $44.28).
- Earnings ALK beat estimates in 3 of the 6 reports in our data, yet fell the next day after 2 of those beats.
- Insiders Insiders sold $5.1M and bought $1.0M over the last 18 months.
Figures as of October 26, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
CleaRank rates Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Sell, with a model score of 31/100.
The analysts' outlook lifts the score most: 15 of 16 analysts rate it a buy and the median target is 44.5% above the price. The trend holds it back most: the price is 21.06% below its 200-day average and 11.75% below its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 10.55% below the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $39.60 and the 200-day at $44.28. Over the past year the price fell 20.15%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from ALK's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
ALK stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
0/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $34.95 is 11.8% below the 50-day simple moving average of $39.60.Price above its 200-day average ›
The price is 21.1% below the 200-day simple moving average of $44.28.50-day average above the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($39.60) is 10.6% below the 200-day average ($44.28), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the upper half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 9% of its 52-week range, between $32.33 and $60.63.
ALK share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far ALK has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where ALK sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
ALK fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
1/3P/S below the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 0.25 is 93.7% below the sector median of 4.0.Profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was -$395.0M on revenue of $15.3B, a net margin of -2.6%.Beat estimates in most recent reports ›
ALK beat the EPS estimate in 3 of the 6 reports in our data.
Key statistics
The headline figures for ALK.
As of October 26, 2026, ALK trades at $34.95, with a market value of $3.90B and no P/E ratio (its trailing earnings are negative).
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of ALK's valuation, growth and risks.
ALK cannot be valued on earnings: its P/E is not meaningful, because its earnings per share over the last 12 months are negative. On sales, the price-to-sales ratio of 0.25 is 93.8% below the sector median of 4.0. The company's market capitalisation stands at $3.9B.
The company is losing money, with a net margin of -2.58% and an operating margin of 2.48%, and a return on equity of -10.45%, below the sector median of 17.8%. Rounding out the fundamentals, ALK reports debt-to-equity of 2.13.
ALK's most recent earnings report, dated October 20, 2026, showed EPS of -$0.31 against an analyst estimate of $0.28, which was worse than expected. The shares dropped 2.39% in the following session.
For this fiscal year, analysts expect an average EPS of -$4.70, improving to $3.24 next year.
ALK's typical daily move is about 2.55%, and its beta against the S&P 500 is 1.33. The trend is against holders until the price gets back above its moving averages. The stock is 42.36% below its 52-week high of $60.63. Over the last 18 months, insiders sold $5.1M of stock and bought $1.0M. Sales like these are often planned ahead or made to cover taxes on vesting shares, so they carry less weight than open-market purchases would.
ALK against the Industrials sector
How ALK compares with the median Industrials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to sales vs sector: On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, ALK trades at 0.2531x, far below the sector average of 4.00x.
Return vs XLI: Since May 14, 2025, ALK has lost 35.5% against a gain of 18.8% for XLI.
Performance against XLI
ALK and the Industrials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much ALK sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
The quarterly bars end with Q2 '26 (the quarter to June 30, 2026); ALK reported again on October 20, 2026, and that quarter is not in our statement data yet. The 12-month figures come from the statistics feed and may include it.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 21.3% in FY2025 to $14.2B, from $11.7B a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was 0.7% in FY2025, down from 3.4% the year before.
Profitable: ALK earned $100M in FY2025.
Earnings reality check
Did ALK beat what analysts expected, and how did the stock react?
Earnings record: ALK beat the analyst estimate in 3 of the 6 reports in our data.
Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 2 of those 3 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own.
| Report | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | First session | 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026after close | $0.28 | -$0.31 | -210.71% | -2.39% | - |
| Jul 21, 2026after close | -$0.99 | -$0.92 | +7.07% | -2.42% | +6.93% |
| Jan 22, 2026after close | $0.11 | $0.43 | +290.91% | +4.11% | +9.09% |
| Oct 24, 2025after close | $1.10 | $1.05 | -4.55% | +2.31% | -4.66% |
| Jul 23, 2025after close | $1.54 | $1.78 | +15.58% | -5.66% | -1.02% |
| Apr 23, 2025after close | -$0.77 | -$0.77 | +0.00% | -9.98% | -3.99% |
As of October 26, 2026, ALK has beaten the analyst EPS estimate in 3 of the 6 reports in our data and fell in the first trading session after 2 of those beats; its latest report, on October 20, 2026, came in 210.71% below the estimate and the stock moved -2.39% in the first session.
The first session is the first full trading day on the news: the report day itself for a report before the open, the next day for one after the close. Surprise is actual EPS against the consensus estimate.
ALK AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
1/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 38.1, showing bearish momentum without being oversold.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 38.1 is below the 50 midpoint, so sellers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is negative, so the 12-day average is below the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of ALK
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
ALK is in a downtrend. At $34.95, the stock sits 11.75% below its 50-day average of $39.60 and 21.06% below its 200-day average of $44.28. Near the bottom of its 52-week range, the price is 8.10% above the low of $32.33, and 42.36% below the high of $60.63. The 50-day average is 10.55% below the 200-day, a gap that backs up the weakness rather than cutting against it.
The 14-day RSI of 38.1 is in the bearish zone, above the oversold line, and the MACD line is negative. The price is down over each of these periods: 14.63% over the past month, 26.42% over the past three months and 20.15% over the past year. Volume in the last session ran 32.7% below its average, on a day the price rose 1.60%.
Earnings miss ›
The October 20, 2026 report missed the EPS estimate by 210.71%, and the share price fell 2.39% in the first session after it.
Source: Earnings report, October 20, 2026Rating reaffirmed ›
Citigroup kept its Sell rating on October 22, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Citigroup, October 22, 2026
- Two levels matter most: the 20-day EMA at $36.80 sits above the price, and the 52-week low of $32.33 sits below it.
- A 14-day RSI of 38.1 falls in the bearish zone, and the MACD line is negative. Readings above 70 or below 30 would signal stretched momentum.
- The share price fell 2.39% in the first session after the October 20, 2026 report.
ALK sits below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($39.60 and $44.28), and that placement is why the trend reads down. A recovery would first need to reclaim the 50-day average. The closest level overhead is the 20-day EMA, at $36.80.
The next level below the price is the 52-week low of $32.33. With the RSI in the bearish zone, momentum still leans toward lower prices.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for ALK, from its daily closes.
As of October 26, 2026, with ALK at $34.95, its 14-day RSI is 38.1 (showing bearish momentum without being oversold), its 50-day simple moving average is $39.60 and its 200-day is $44.28.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 26, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What ALK moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of October 26, 2026, ALK's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.54 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.47 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.19 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.13 with gold (XAU).
ALK price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
15 of 16 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 0 a hold and 1 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $50.50 is 44.5% above the price.More buy ratings than three months ago ›
15 of 16 rate it a buy now, against 15 of 16 three months ago.
ALK Wall Street View
12-month price targets
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Sell |
| Oct 22, 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform |
| Oct 22, 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive |
| Oct 16, 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive |
As of October 26, 2026, 16 Wall Street analysts cover ALK: 15 rate it a buy or strong buy, 0 a hold and 1 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $33.00 to $78.00. The median ALK price target is $50.50, 44.5% above the price of $34.95.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
ALK trade plan: entry, stop loss and targets
Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.
ALK trade plan
Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.
Short entry pick an entry style
Risk management
Profit targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
These levels come from ALK's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.
Risk profile
How much ALK tends to move, against the market and on its own.
ALK price history and drawdowns
ALK's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
0/4Average daily move under 2% ›
The price has moved 2.55% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).Recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 72.1%, from February 2017 to May 2020; the price is still 61.7% below that peak.Most 1-year holds ended higher ›
33% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins ›
$10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $5,249, against $42,015 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
ALK Drawdowns & Recovery
As of October 26, 2026, ALK's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -72.1% (February 2017 to May 2020); it is still 61.7% below that peak, and 33% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.
From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into ALK in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: ALK trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $5,248.53 against $42,015.
A $10,000 investment in ALK in October 2016 would be worth about $5,249 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,015 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).
Seasonal patterns
Which calendar months have been kind to ALK, and which have not.
Strongest month, November: an average of +8.89%, up in 8 of 10 years.
Weakest month, March: an average of -11.98%, up in 3 of 10 years.
This month, October: has averaged -3.16%, up in 4 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.
Over the last 10 years, ALK's strongest calendar month has been November (average +8.89%, up in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -11.98%, up in 3 of 10 years).
Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included.
ALK stock price prediction 2030
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
Monte Carlo projection
Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in ALK, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.
CleaRank's 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, based on 10 years of price history, projects that a $10,000 investment in ALK today could grow to about $9,635 by 2030 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $29,928 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $3,102. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ALK Stock Price Prediction 2030: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $33.67 for ALK by 2030 in the base case, from $34.95 today (1.0x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $10.84. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ALK's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $19.65 | $34.63 | $61.03 | |
| 2028 | $15.39 | $34.31 | $76.46 | |
| 2029 | $12.74 | $33.99 | $90.70 | |
| 2030 | $10.84 | $33.67 | $105 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of ALK's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
ALK insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
ALK insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: Insiders bought $1.0M on the open market and sold $5.1M.
As of October 26, 2026, ALK insiders reported 12 open-market sales worth $5.1M and 1 open-market purchase worth $1.0M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Rakow Diana Birkett
Officer
|
Grant | 313 | - |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Kyle B Levine
Officer
|
Grant | 210 | - |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Jason M Berry
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Benito Minicucci
Chief Executive Officer
|
Buy | 25.0K | $1.0M |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Sell | 5.3K | $263.3K |
| Jun 1, 2026 | G Michael Sievert
Director
|
Grant | 4.3K | $189.6K |
| May 13, 2026 | Patricia M Bedient
Director
|
Grant | 6.5K | $250.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | James Alexander Beer
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | Raymond Lee Conner
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | Daniel Kevin Elwell
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | Kathleen T Hogan
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | Adrienne Rochelle Lofton
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | Helvi Kay Sandvik
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | Peter A Shimer
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| May 13, 2026 | Eric Kawika Yeaman
Director
|
Grant | 5.2K | $200.0K |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Jason M Berry
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 697 | - |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Shane R Tackett
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 24.0K | $1.4M |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Sell | 5.5K | $311.5K |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Sell | 14.5K | $794.8K |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Jason M Berry
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 5.1K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Rakow Diana Birkett
Officer
|
Grant | 9.3K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Emily Halverson
Officer and Treasurer
|
Grant | 4.9K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Grant | 25.9K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Kyle B Levine
Officer
|
Grant | 13.6K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Benito Minicucci
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 61.9K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Andrea L Schneider
Officer
|
Grant | 12.1K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Shane R Tackett
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 28.3K | - |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Muehlen Constance E Von
Officer
|
Grant | 22.0K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Jason M Berry
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 3.1K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Rakow Diana Birkett
Officer
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Emily Halverson
Officer
|
Grant | 1.2K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Grant | 5.5K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Kyle B Levine
Officer
|
Grant | 3.7K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Benito Minicucci
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 15.5K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Andrea L Schneider
Officer
|
Grant | 2.8K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Shane R Tackett
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 6.4K | - |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Muehlen Constance E Von
Officer
|
Grant | 5.1K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Jason M Berry
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 2.4K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Rakow Diana Birkett
Officer
|
Grant | 5.1K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Emily Halverson
Officer and Treasurer
|
Grant | 2.5K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Grant | 16.8K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Kyle B Levine
Officer
|
Grant | 7.7K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Benito Minicucci
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 38.8K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Andrea L Schneider
Officer
|
Grant | 7.5K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Shane R Tackett
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 17.9K | - |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Muehlen Constance E Von
Officer
|
Grant | 13.0K | - |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Kyle B Levine
Officer
|
Sell | 2.9K | $176.7K |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Shane R Tackett
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 10.0K | $550.0K |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Benito Minicucci
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 3.9K | - |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Emily Halverson
Officer and Treasurer
|
Grant | 970 | - |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Kyle B Levine
Officer
|
Grant | 4.9K | - |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Jason M Berry
Officer
|
Grant | 2.0K | - |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Kyle B Levine
General Counsel
|
Sell | 5.9K | $341.5K |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Shane R Tackett
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 5.0K | $285.3K |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Sell | 7.6K | $404.5K |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Emily Halverson
Officer and Treasurer
|
Sell | 2.9K | $151.3K |
| May 19, 2025 | Andrew R Harrison
Officer
|
Sell | 7.5K | $401.3K |
| May 8, 2025 | Patricia M Bedient
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | James Alexander Beer
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | Raymond Lee Conner
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | Daniel Kevin Elwell
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | Kathleen T Hogan
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | Adrienne Rochelle Lofton
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | Helvi Kay Sandvik
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | Peter A Shimer
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 8, 2025 | Eric Kawika Yeaman
Director
|
Grant | 2.7K | $140.0K |
| May 7, 2025 | Muehlen Constance E Von
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 33 | $1.7K |
| May 7, 2025 | Muehlen Constance E Von
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 143 | - |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
ALK stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 26, 2026.