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As of September 10, 2026, Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) trades at $40.16. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $40.36, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $58.00 across 16 analysts. RSI at 46 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $46.00.
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK)
Alaska Air Group Inc. NYSE
$40.16
-0.2000 (-0.50%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
78 / 100
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is currently trading at $40.36, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($46.00 and $45.90), indicating a bearish technical trend. However, the company has demonstrated positive revenue growth of 9.7% and analysts project continued growth, with current quarter revenue estimates at $4.3 billion, a 14.00% increase year-over-year. The median analyst price target stands at $58, suggesting a substantial 43.7% upside from the current price. Despite recent insider selling activity, the overall analyst consensus remains positive, with 15 out of 16 analysts rating the stock as Buy or Strong Buy. The company also offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.53%. Recent earnings reports show mixed results, with a beat in the latest quarter (EPS actual -0.92 vs estimate -0.99, +7.07% surprise) but a negative price reaction of -2.42%. Prior quarters also showed beats with negative price reactions. The company's net profit margin is negative, reflecting an EPS of -1.61. While the stock is trading below key moving averages, the strong analyst conviction and projected revenue growth provide a bullish fundamental outlook. Key risks include the ongoing insider selling and the mixed price reactions to earnings beats.
ALK Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$39.68
Day Range
$39.41 to $40.84
Prev Close
$40.36
Volume
49.7K
52-Week Range
$33.03 to $65.88
Market Cap
$4.50B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+269%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
ALK Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, ALK beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
ALK Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+44.42% Upside
Median of 16 analysts (12-month)
$58.00
AI Technical Analysis
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $45.9994 and its 200-day SMA of $45.9014, indicating a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is at 45.85, falling within the neutral momentum range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD is at -1.53, also signaling bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price of $40.36, with resistance seen at the 50-day SMA of $45.9994. Volume on the latest trading day was 1,986,200, slightly below the average of 2,007,200, indicating moderate trading activity. The chart structure suggests that the stock needs to break above the $45.90 to $46.00 range to signal a potential reversal of the current downtrend.
ProTips
- Consider the moderate insider selling as a signal of caution, and monitor future transactions closely.
- The stock is currently trading below key moving averages, suggesting that a break above $46 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
- With a dividend yield of approximately 3.53%, ALK may appeal to income-focused investors, but profitability concerns should be weighed against dividend sustainability.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
16 analysts cover ALK, with a median price target of $58, representing a 43.7% upside from the current price. The consensus rating is predominantly Buy.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBullish
Projected Revenue Growth
Analysts forecast current quarter revenue to reach $4.3 billion, a 14.00% increase year-over-year, indicating strong top-line expansion potential.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold $5.1 million worth of stock versus $1 million in purchases, indicating a net seller position and potential lack of confidence in the short term.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Negative Price Reaction to Earnings Beats
Despite recent EPS beats, ALK's stock price has declined, suggesting that positive earnings news is not currently translating into market optimism.
Source: Earnings Recent DataMarket Outlook
The base case for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) over the next 6-12 months anticipates a potential move towards the median analyst target price of $58, driven by projected revenue growth and positive analyst sentiment. The company's ability to sustain revenue expansion and potentially improve profitability could lead to a re-rating of the stock. The current dividend yield of 3.53% also provides a baseline return for investors. Upside catalysts include a stronger-than-expected recovery in air travel demand or successful cost-management initiatives that improve net margins. Conversely, downside risks involve a potential increase in fuel costs, intensified competition within the airline industry, or a failure to translate revenue growth into profitability, which could pressure the stock towards its lower support levels around $40.36.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 4.50B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -1.61 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.53% |
| 52 Week High | 65.88 |
| 52 Week Low | 33.03 |
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) exhibits a negative P/E ratio due to its EPS of -1.61, making traditional valuation comparisons difficult. However, the company has achieved revenue growth of 9.7%, and analysts forecast continued expansion with current quarter revenue expected to increase by 14.00% year-over-year to $4.3 billion. The median analyst price target of $58 suggests a significant upside from the current price, implying that the market may be undervaluing the company's future revenue potential relative to its current stock price. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the negative EPS indicates profitability challenges. The company's dividend yield is approximately 3.53%, offering some income to investors. Given the negative EPS and P/E, the current valuation appears stretched if solely based on profitability metrics, but the strong revenue growth projections and analyst targets suggest a potential turnaround or growth story is anticipated by the market.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) most recently reported an EPS of -0.92 on July 21, 2026, which beat the analyst estimate of -0.99 by 7.07%. Despite this earnings beat, the stock experienced a price decline of -2.42%. Prior earnings reports also show a pattern of beating estimates, such as the 0.92 EPS versus an estimate of 0.83 in April 2026, yet the stock reacted negatively with a -4.8% change. This suggests that positive earnings surprises are not currently translating into stock price appreciation, possibly due to broader market sentiment or concerns about future profitability.
Key Risks
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) faces moderate selling pressure from insiders, with $5.1 million in sales versus $1 million in purchases, indicating a degree of caution among management. The stock is also trading below key moving averages, signaling potential near-term weakness. Also, recent earnings beats have been met with negative stock price reactions, highlighting investor skepticism or broader industry headwinds that could impact future performance.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 45.85 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.53 |
| SMA 50 | 46.00 |
| SMA 200 | 45.90 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.54
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.10
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
ALK Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$39.36
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$40.16
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$37.22
MAX LOSS
-5.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (45.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$41.32
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$43.29
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$45.26
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for ALK is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ALK in September 2016 would be worth about $5,783 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ALK today could grow to about $9,993 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $59,626 and a bear case around $1,675. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ALK Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $40.15 for ALK by 2030 in the base case, from $40.16 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $12.97. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ALK's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $22.83 | $40.16 | $70.64 |
| 2028 | $18.06 | $40.15 | $89.26 |
| 2029 | $15.09 | $40.15 | $107 |
| 2030 | $12.97 | $40.15 | $124 |
| 2031 | $11.35 | $40.15 | $142 |
| 2032 | $10.06 | $40.14 | $160 |
| 2033 | $9.01 | $40.14 | $179 |
| 2034 | $8.12 | $40.14 | $198 |
| 2035 | $7.37 | $40.13 | $219 |
| 2036 | $6.73 | $40.13 | $239 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ALK's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
ALK Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.0M
1 Transactions
Sold
$5.1M
12 Transactions
Insiders
19
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$465.8K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | HARRISON ANDREW R
Officer
|
Sell | 91.7K | $6.5M |
| Apr 23, 2021 | TILDEN BRADLEY DOUGLAS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 33.8K | $2.3M |
| Dec 12, 2024 | MINICUCCI BENITO
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 30.0K | $2.0M |
| Feb 10, 2025 | TACKETT SHANE R
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 22.9K | $1.7M |
| Feb 18, 2025 | VON MUEHLEN CONSTANCE E
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 22.2K | $1.7M |
| Mar 12, 2021 | TILDEN BRADLEY DOUGLAS
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 23.4K | $1.6M |
| Feb 18, 2026 | TACKETT SHANE R
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 24.0K | $1.4M |
| Mar 25, 2021 | MINICUCCI BENITO
Officer
|
Sell | 14.4K | $962.3K |
| Dec 11, 2024 | HARRISON ANDREW R
Officer
|
Sell | 13.9K | $888.4K |
| Feb 13, 2026 | HARRISON ANDREW R
Officer
|
Sell | 14.5K | $794.8K |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) stock a buy right now?
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is currently rated as a Buy by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $58, suggesting a 43.7% upside from its current price of $40.36. While technical indicators are bearish, the positive revenue growth and analyst consensus support a bullish outlook.
What is Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) dividend yield?
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.53%, with a dividend rate of $1.42 per share.
What are the key risks for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK)?
Key risks for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) include moderate insider selling totaling $5.1 million, a bearish technical trend with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($46.00 and $45.90), and negative stock price reactions to recent earnings beats.
How is Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) revenue growth trending?
Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) has demonstrated revenue growth of 9.7%. Analysts forecast continued expansion, with current quarter revenue estimated at $4.3 billion, representing a 14.00% year-over-year increase.
What is the analyst consensus for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK)?
The Wall Street consensus for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is predominantly Buy, with 15 out of 16 analysts recommending the stock as Buy or Strong Buy. The overall Wall Street score is 78 out of 100.
What is Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) long-term stock forecast?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) stock forecast for 2030 shows a base price projection of $40.35, with a downside price of $13.04 and an upside price of $124.87. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How did Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) perform in its latest earnings report?
In its latest earnings report on July 21, 2026, Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) reported an EPS of -0.92, beating the estimate of -0.99 by 7.07%. However, the stock price declined by 2.42% following the announcement.