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As of September 23, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) trades at $308.44. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $361.50, 17.2% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $361.50 across 28 analysts. RSI at 45 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $318.82.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. NYSE
$308.44
1.360 (0.44%)
At close: Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is currently trading at $308.44, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($318.82 and $314.45), signaling a neutral to slightly bearish technical trend. The company's fundamentals are mixed, with a high P/E ratio of 45.03 compared to the sector median of 20.8, but strong revenue growth estimates of 8.00% for the current year. Recent earnings have shown consistent, albeit small, positive surprises, and the company maintains a substantial cash position relative to its market cap, providing a buffer against potential downturns. However, significant insider selling totaling $41.9 million in recent filings, with no insider purchases, warrants attention as a potential risk factor. The lodging industry, represented by ETFs like XLY, is sensitive to economic cycles and consumer spending. Hilton's strong brand recognition and global presence are key advantages, but competitive pressures from other major hotel chains and alternative accommodations remain a constant factor. The company's forward revenue growth estimates are positive, with analysts projecting an 8.00% increase for the current year and 9.00% for the next, suggesting continued expansion. Despite these positive growth indicators, the current technical setup and insider selling activity suggest a period of consolidation or potential pullback before a significant upward move.
HLT Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$311.64
Day Range
$307.26 to $314.00
Prev Close
$307.08
Volume
1.74M
52-Week Range
$253.54 to $358.00
Market Cap
$69.42B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+116%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
HLT Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, HLT beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 4 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
HLT Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+17.20% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$361.50
AI Technical Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) exhibits neutral momentum with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.91, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($318.82 and $314.45), suggesting a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also negative at -4.51, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Key support levels are being tested, with the current price of $308.44 hovering near the 200-day SMA. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with 1.74 million shares traded compared to an average of 1.82 million, indicating a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. The current technical setup suggests that a break below the 200-day SMA could lead to further downside, while a move back above the 50-day SMA would be required to signal a shift in momentum.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction activity closely; continued net selling could signal headwinds for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT).
- The stock's current position below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($318.82 and $314.45) suggests a cautious approach, with a potential for further downside if key support levels are breached.
- Given the premium valuation, investors should pay close attention to forward guidance and revenue growth figures in upcoming earnings reports to justify the current stock price.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Consistent Earnings Beats
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) has a track record of beating analyst EPS estimates, as seen in the quarter to June 2026 with a 0.88% surprise. Continued positive earnings surprises could support the stock price.
Source: Earnings ReportsBullish
Positive Revenue Growth Estimates
Analysts project revenue growth of 8.00% for the current year and 9.00% for the next, indicating continued expansion for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT).
Source: Analyst EstimatesBearish
Moderate Insider Selling Signal
Insiders have sold $41.9 million worth of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) stock across 83 transactions with no reported purchases, indicating a moderate insider selling and potential lack of confidence.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Trading Below Key Moving Averages
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($318.82 and $314.45), suggesting a bearish technical trend and potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) over the next 6-12 months anticipates a potential recovery towards its median analyst price target of $361.50, representing a 17.2% upside from the current price. This scenario assumes that the stock can regain momentum above its key moving averages and that recent earnings beats continue to support the company's growth trajectory. Analysts are forecasting solid revenue growth of 8.00% for the current year and 9.00% for the next, which should provide a fundamental tailwind. However, the thesis could be challenged by continued insider selling and a failure to break out of its current technical downtrend. If the stock fails to find support and breaks below the 200-day moving average, it could signal a deeper correction. Also, any slowdown in global travel or increased competition could impact revenue growth and profitability, potentially leading to a reassessment of the current valuation. The significant difference between the AI's consensus score (55) and Wall Street's (67) suggests a divergence in risk assessment, with the AI highlighting insider selling and technical weakness more prominently.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 69.42B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.03 |
| EPS (TTM) | 6.82 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.19% |
| 52 Week High | 358.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 253.54 |
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) presents a valuation that appears stretched, with a P/E ratio of 45.03 significantly higher than the sector median of 20.8. Its Price-to-Sales ratio of 13.54 also indicates a premium valuation compared to the sector average of 1.9. While the company's profit margin of 31.03% is strong, its return on equity is negative at -27.25%, which is concerning and deviates significantly from the sector average ROE of 12.4. Despite the high valuation multiples, analysts project strong revenue growth, with an estimated 8.00% increase for the current year and 9.00% for the next, aligning with the sector's average revenue growth of 7.2%. The company's balance sheet appears healthy, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.02, suggesting minimal leverage. However, the negative ROE and high P/E ratio combined with moderate insider selling raise questions about the sustainability of its current valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) has demonstrated a pattern of consistently beating analyst EPS estimates in recent quarters. For the quarter ending June 2026, the company reported an EPS of $2.29, slightly above the estimate of $2.27, with a price reaction of -0.22%. This follows similar small positive surprises in the preceding quarters, indicating operational predictability. Revenue growth is projected to be around 8.00% for the current year, suggesting continued top-line expansion.
Key Risks
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) faces several key risks. The most prominent is the significant insider selling, with $41.9 million in sales and no reported purchases, signaling potential concerns among management regarding future performance. Additionally, the stock is trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish technical trend and potential for further price depreciation. The high P/E ratio of 45.03, significantly above the sector average, also presents a valuation risk, making the stock susceptible to sharp corrections if growth expectations are not met.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 44.91 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.51 |
| SMA 50 | 318.82 |
| SMA 200 | 314.45 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($318.82) above the 200-day SMA ($314.45), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.58
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.48
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.13
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with HLT? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
HLT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$305.36
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$308.44
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$295.31
MAX LOSS
-3.3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (44.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$314.52
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$320.62
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$329.78
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for HLT is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 23, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in HLT in September 2016 would be worth about $63,691 today, compared with about $35,806 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in HLT today could grow to about $33,842 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $108,529 and a bear case around $10,553. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
HLT Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $502 for HLT by 2030 in the base case, from $308 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $240. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on HLT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $241 | $348 | $504 |
| 2028 | $234 | $394 | $663 |
| 2029 | $235 | $445 | $842 |
| 2030 | $240 | $502 | $1,050 |
| 2031 | $249 | $567 | $1,293 |
| 2032 | $260 | $641 | $1,581 |
| 2033 | $273 | $724 | $1,920 |
| 2034 | $288 | $818 | $2,320 |
| 2035 | $306 | $924 | $2,791 |
| 2036 | $325 | $1,044 | $3,347 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using HLT's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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HLT Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$41.9M
4 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$10.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2018 | HNA TOURISM GROUP CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 66.0M | $4.8B |
| Feb 17, 2026 | NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 114.3K | $36.3M |
| Nov 3, 2021 | JACOBS KEVIN J
Officer
|
Sell | 195.7K | $28.4M |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.7K | $10.9M |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 43.6K | $8.5M |
| Feb 18, 2021 | CAMPBELL KRISTIN ANN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 57.1K | $6.2M |
| Dec 16, 2024 | DUFFY MICHAEL W.
Officer
|
Sell | 23.4K | $5.9M |
| Feb 10, 2023 | CAMPBELL KRISTIN ANN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 32.9K | $5.0M |
| Feb 15, 2019 | JACOBS KEVIN J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 53.0K | $4.3M |
| Nov 5, 2021 | CAMPBELL KRISTIN ANN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 28.1K | $4.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) stock a buy right now?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is currently rated as a 'Hold' by Wall Street consensus, with a median price target of $361.50, suggesting a 17.2% upside from the current price of $308.44. However, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and exhibits moderate insider selling, which warrants caution.
What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s (HLT) fair value?
The calculated fair value for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is $361.50, offering a potential upside of 17.2% from its current trading price. This valuation is based on the median analyst price target.
What are the biggest risks for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)?
The primary risks for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) include significant insider selling totaling $41.9 million, a high P/E ratio of 45.03 compared to the sector median, and the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($318.82 and $314.45), indicating a bearish technical trend.
How is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) performing financially?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) shows strong revenue growth projections, with an estimated 8.00% increase for the current year. While profit margins are healthy, the return on equity is negative at -27.25%, and the P/E ratio is high at 45.03, suggesting potential valuation concerns.
What is the outlook for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) in the next 12 months?
The outlook for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is cautiously optimistic, with analysts projecting continued revenue growth and a median price target of $361.50. However, the stock's current technical weakness and insider selling activity suggest potential near-term volatility.
What is HLT stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) has a base case forecast of $502.29 for 2030, with a downside projection of $240.37 and an upside projection of $1049.62. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
How does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) compare to its sector peers?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) trades at a premium valuation with a P/E of 45.03 and a P/S of 13.54, significantly higher than the sector medians of 20.8 and 1.9 respectively. While its revenue growth is projected to be strong, its negative ROE of -27.25% contrasts with the sector's positive ROE of 12.4.