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As of October 11, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) trades at $326.56. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $361.50, 10.7% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $361.50 across 28 analysts. RSI at 70 is in overbought territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $317.35.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. NYSE
$326.56
3.270 (1.01%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
67 / 100
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is trading at $326.56, a level that is above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($317.35 and $316.89), indicating positive short-to-medium term momentum. The company's valuation, with a P/E ratio of 47.88, is significantly higher than the sector average of 20.8, suggesting investors are pricing in substantial future growth. This optimism is echoed by Wall Street analysts, who maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $361.50, implying an upside of 10.7% from current levels. Forward estimates for EPS and revenue growth are positive, with next year's revenue projected to increase by 9.00% and EPS by 15.6%. The company also boasts strong operating margins of 62.99% and a net profit margin of 31.03%. However, a notable risk is the recent insider selling activity, with $41.9 million in sales versus no reported purchases, signaling a potential lack of immediate insider confidence. The stock's RSI of 70.06 also indicates it is currently in overbought territory, suggesting a potential for a near-term pullback.
HLT Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$324.76
Day Range
$323.29 to $327.70
Prev Close
$323.29
Volume
1.15M
52-Week Range
$253.54 to $358.00
Market Cap
$73.50B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XHB
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+130%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
HLT Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, HLT beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 4 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
HLT Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+10.70% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$361.50
AI Technical Analysis
At 70.06, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s RSI is in overbought territory, signaling a potential risk of a price pullback. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $317.35 and its 200-day SMA of $316.89, indicating an overall bullish trend. The MACD at 2.13 also suggests positive momentum, though the overbought RSI warrants caution. Volume on the latest trading day was 1.15 million shares, slightly below the average of 1.32 million, indicating moderate investor interest. Key support levels are near the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, while the current price action suggests upward momentum may continue if the overbought condition resolves without a significant price decline. Investors should monitor the RSI for signs of cooling off.
ProTips
- Monitor the RSI for signs of a cooling-off from its current overbought level to avoid potential pullbacks.
- Given the significant insider selling, investors should closely watch for any changes in management sentiment or further disclosures.
- Consider position sizing carefully due to the stock's premium valuation and overbought technicals.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Forward Growth Estimates
Analysts project strong revenue growth of 9.00% next year and EPS growth of 15.6%, indicating confidence in Hilton's future performance.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Strong Analyst Consensus
A 'Buy' consensus rating from 28 analysts with a median price target of $361.50 suggests broad market approval and potential for price appreciation.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBearish
Significant Insider Selling
Recent insider transactions show $41.9 million in sales versus no reported purchases, which could indicate a lack of confidence from management.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Overbought Technical Condition
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.06, indicating the stock may be overextended and due for a price correction.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with analysts forecasting revenue growth of 9.00% next year and EPS growth of 15.6%. The company's strong operating margins and minimal debt provide a solid foundation for this expansion. The median analyst price target of $361.50 suggests a potential upside of 10.7% from the current price, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to execute its growth strategy. However, the stock's current overbought technical condition and significant insider selling present near-term risks. A failure to sustain current momentum or a shift in insider sentiment could lead to a price correction. Upside catalysts could include stronger-than-expected travel demand or successful new market entries, while downside risks include increased competition, economic downturns impacting travel spending, or a broader market sell-off that disproportionately affects high-valuation stocks.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 73.50B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.88 |
| EPS (TTM) | 6.82 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.18% |
| 52 Week High | 358.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 253.54 |
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 47.88, significantly above the sector average of 20.8, and a Price-to-Sales ratio of 14.40, which is also elevated compared to the sector median of 1.9. Despite this premium valuation, the company demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 31.03% and an operating margin of 62.99%. Its return on equity is reported as -27.25%, which is concerning and deviates from the sector average of 12.4%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is a very low -0.02, indicating a strong balance sheet with minimal leverage. The company's high valuation appears to be driven by strong forward growth expectations, with next year's EPS estimated to grow by 15.6% and revenue by 9.00%. While the current profitability metrics are impressive, the negative ROE warrants further investigation into the underlying causes, potentially related to recent corporate actions or accounting practices. The minimal debt, however, provides financial flexibility.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. has consistently met or slightly exceeded analyst EPS estimates in its recent quarterly reports. For the quarter ending June 2026, EPS came in at $2.29 against an estimate of $2.27, a 0.88% surprise, with a minor price decrease of -0.22%. The prior quarter to March 2026 saw an EPS of $2.01 versus an estimate of $1.97, a 2.03% surprise, accompanied by a -2.74% price change. This pattern of slight beats suggests stable operational performance, though the stock price reaction has been mixed following these reports.
Key Risks
A primary risk for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly higher than sector averages, which could lead to a sharp correction if growth expectations are not met. The stock's current overbought RSI reading of 70.06 suggests a potential for a near-term pullback. Also, recent insider selling totaling $41.9 million without corresponding insider purchases indicates a potential lack of confidence from management, which could weigh on future performance.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 70.06 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 2.13 |
| SMA 50 | 317.35 |
| SMA 200 | 316.89 |
RSI
Overbought
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 70.1 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.58
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.07
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with HLT? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
HLT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$320.03
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$326.56
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$308.51
MAX LOSS
-3.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (70.1) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$336.03
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$352.03
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$368.03
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for HLT is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in HLT in October 2016 would be worth about $70,573 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in HLT today could grow to about $35,121 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $112,633 and a bear case around $10,951. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
HLT Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $540 for HLT by 2030 in the base case, from $327 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $258. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on HLT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $256 | $370 | $535 |
| 2028 | $249 | $420 | $707 |
| 2029 | $251 | $476 | $901 |
| 2030 | $258 | $540 | $1,128 |
| 2031 | $268 | $612 | $1,395 |
| 2032 | $281 | $694 | $1,711 |
| 2033 | $297 | $787 | $2,086 |
| 2034 | $315 | $892 | $2,530 |
| 2035 | $335 | $1,012 | $3,056 |
| 2036 | $358 | $1,147 | $3,678 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using HLT's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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HLT Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$41.9M
4 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$10.5M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2018 | HNA TOURISM GROUP CO., LTD.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 66.0M | $4.8B |
| Feb 17, 2026 | NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 114.3K | $36.3M |
| Nov 3, 2021 | JACOBS KEVIN J
Officer
|
Sell | 195.7K | $28.4M |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.7K | $10.9M |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 43.6K | $8.5M |
| Feb 18, 2021 | CAMPBELL KRISTIN ANN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 57.1K | $6.2M |
| Dec 16, 2024 | DUFFY MICHAEL W.
Officer
|
Sell | 23.4K | $5.9M |
| Feb 10, 2023 | CAMPBELL KRISTIN ANN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 32.9K | $5.0M |
| Feb 15, 2019 | JACOBS KEVIN J
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 53.0K | $4.3M |
| Nov 5, 2021 | CAMPBELL KRISTIN ANN
General Counsel
|
Sell | 28.1K | $4.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $539.74, with a downside scenario at $258.29 and an upside scenario at $1127.92. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets.
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. stock a buy right now?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is currently rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $361.50, suggesting a 10.7% upside from the current price of $326.56. The stock exhibits positive technical momentum, trading above key moving averages, and analysts project strong future growth.
What are the recent earnings results for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.?
In the quarter to June 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reported an EPS of $2.29, slightly beating the estimate of $2.27 by 0.88%. The stock saw a minor decline of -0.22% following this report. Previous quarters also showed slight EPS beats.
How does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. trades at a significantly higher P/E ratio (47.88) and Price-to-Sales ratio (14.40) compared to sector averages of 20.8 and 1.9, respectively. However, its profit margins are stronger than the sector's average ROE of 12.4%.
What are the main risks facing Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.?
Key risks include its premium valuation, an overbought technical condition indicated by the RSI, and significant recent insider selling totaling $41.9 million, which could signal a lack of management confidence.
What is the outlook for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. revenue and earnings growth?
Analysts project strong growth for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., with revenue expected to increase by 9.00% next year and EPS by 15.6%. The company's current year revenue growth is estimated at +8.00%.
What is the consensus rating for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. stock?
The consensus rating for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. stock among 28 analysts is 'Buy', with a Wall Street score of 67 out of 100. This includes 4 'Strong Buy', 13 'Buy', and 10 'Hold' ratings.