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As of September 11, 2026, Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) trades at $482.23. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $335.00, 30.5% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $700.00 across 21 analysts. RSI at 21 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $563.36.
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)
Axon Enterprise, Inc. NASDAQ
$482.23
3.380 (0.71%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Axon Enterprise (AXON) is currently trading at $482.23, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($563.36 and $504.81), signaling bearish technical momentum. The company's recent earnings have shown mixed results, with a notable miss in the most recent quarter's price reaction. Despite strong revenue growth projected at 33.00% year-over-year for the current quarter and 33.00% for the current year, the stock faces considerable headwinds from heavy insider selling, with over $203 million in sales versus only $1 million in purchases. This substantial net selling activity, coupled with a significantly oversold RSI of 21.29, suggests a high probability of further downside. Wall Street analysts maintain a generally positive outlook with a median price target of $700, implying a 45.2% upside. However, the consensus rating is 'Buy', with a score of 79, which diverges from our AI-driven 'Sell' rating based on the overwhelming insider selling and technical weakness. The company operates in the Industrials sector, specifically Aerospace & Defense, with sector averages showing a P/E of 34 and revenue growth of 11.7%. Axon's current P/E of 206.38 is significantly higher than the sector average, indicating a substantial valuation premium that may be difficult to sustain given the current technical and insider selling trends.
AXON Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$480.98
Day Range
$474.34 to $482.99
Prev Close
$478.85
Volume
4.0K
52-Week Range
$339.01 to $792.16
Market Cap
$38.90B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+507%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
AXON Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, AXON beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
AXON Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Axon Enterprise (AXON) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $563.36 and its 200-day SMA of $504.81, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 21.29, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce but also highlighting significant selling pressure. The MACD is negative at -22.72, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. Volume on the latest trading day was exceptionally low at 4,008 compared to the average of 805,051, which could indicate a lack of conviction from buyers despite the oversold conditions. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current downward trajectory, and resistance is expected at the aforementioned moving averages. The current price action suggests that the stock is vulnerable to further declines unless there is a significant shift in insider sentiment or a broader market recovery.
ProTips
- Heed the significant insider selling pressure; over $203 million in sales versus minimal purchases suggests caution.
- The stock is trading significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($563.36 and $504.81) with an oversold RSI, indicating potential for further downside despite short-term bounce possibilities.
- Given the high valuation and bearish technicals, consider risk management strategies such as setting tighter stop-losses or avoiding new long positions until insider sentiment and technicals improve.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Activity
Insiders have sold over $203 million worth of stock against only $1 million in purchases, indicating a strong lack of confidence and potential for further price declines.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Bearish Technical Indicators
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($563.36 and $504.81) and exhibits a significantly oversold RSI (21.29), signaling strong bearish momentum and potential for continued price weakness.
Source: Technical AnalysisBearish
Elevated Valuation
A P/E ratio of 206.38 is significantly higher than the sector average, creating a risk of sharp correction if growth expectations are not met or if market sentiment shifts.
Source: Fundamental AnalysisBullish
Potential for Short-Term Bounce
The RSI is significantly oversold at 21.29, which historically can precede a short-term technical bounce or reversal, although broader trends remain bearish.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case for Axon Enterprise (AXON) over the next 6-12 months is cautious, with potential for further downside given the heavy insider selling and bearish technical indicators. While Wall Street's median price target of $700 suggests significant upside, the current price action and insider sentiment are overriding positive analyst views. The stock's high valuation, with a P/E of 206.38, makes it vulnerable to any slowdown in its projected 33.00% revenue growth. Potential catalysts for a bullish reversal would require a significant shift in insider sentiment, such as substantial net buying activity, or a clear break above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Conversely, downside risks include continued insider selling, failure to meet aggressive growth expectations, or broader market weakness exacerbating the current oversold technical condition. The stock's current oversold RSI of 21.29 could lead to a short-term bounce, but the underlying bearish trends suggest this may be temporary.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 38.90B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 206.38 |
| EPS (TTM) | 2.38 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 792.16 |
| 52 Week Low | 339.01 |
Axon Enterprise (AXON) exhibits a high P/E ratio of 206.38, significantly exceeding the sector median of 34, suggesting a substantial valuation premium. While the company demonstrates strong revenue growth, projected at 33.00% year-over-year for the current quarter and 33.00% for the current year, this growth is not currently justifying the elevated valuation in the eyes of the market, as evidenced by the stock's price action. The company's profitability, indicated by an EPS of $2.38, is overshadowed by the extreme valuation. Balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the significant insider selling points to potential concerns regarding future growth prospects or valuation sustainability. The current market capitalization of $38.9 billion is substantial, and the high P/E ratio implies that significant future growth is already priced in, making the stock susceptible to sharp corrections if growth falters or sentiment shifts.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Axon Enterprise (AXON) has shown mixed earnings performance recently. The most recent quarter (August 5, 2026) reported an EPS of $1.88, beating the estimate of $1.84 by 2.17%, but resulted in a significant price drop of -14.28%. Prior to this, the company had a period of consistent performance, including a 30.35% EPS surprise in March 2026. However, the recent negative price reaction to an earnings beat suggests that market expectations may be shifting, or that broader market conditions are overshadowing positive earnings results.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Axon Enterprise (AXON) is the heavy insider selling, with over $203 million in sales versus only $1 million in purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the stock is trading significantly below its key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMA) and exhibits a significantly oversold RSI, indicating strong bearish technical momentum and potential for further price declines. The company's extremely high P/E ratio of 206.38 also presents a valuation risk, as it implies high growth expectations that may be difficult to meet, especially in the current market environment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 21.29 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -22.72 |
| SMA 50 | 563.36 |
| SMA 200 | 504.81 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($563.36) above the 200-day SMA ($504.81), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 21.3 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.34
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.33
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.12
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.03
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
AXON Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$491.87
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$482.23
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$533.93
MAX LOSS
-8.6%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (21.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$467.28
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$442.69
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$418.09
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
AXON is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 5.18%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in AXON in September 2016 would be worth about $188,598 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AXON today could grow to about $46,433 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $347,779 and a bear case around $6,199. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
AXON Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $891 for AXON by 2030 in the base case, from $482 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $249. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AXON's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $297 | $562 | $1,063 |
| 2028 | $266 | $656 | $1,613 |
| 2029 | $254 | $764 | $2,303 |
| 2030 | $249 | $891 | $3,185 |
| 2031 | $250 | $1,039 | $4,315 |
| 2032 | $255 | $1,212 | $5,764 |
| 2033 | $262 | $1,413 | $7,615 |
| 2034 | $272 | $1,647 | $9,974 |
| 2035 | $284 | $1,920 | $12,972 |
| 2036 | $299 | $2,239 | $16,771 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AXON's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. AXON is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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AXON Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.0M
1 Transactions
Sold
$203.5M
62 Transactions
Insiders
19
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 395.8K | $75.0M |
| Oct 2, 2024 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 165.0K | $66.3M |
| Aug 27, 2024 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 170.3K | $62.5M |
| Jan 27, 2023 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 326.4K | $62.1M |
| Nov 16, 2021 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 330.0K | $61.5M |
| Sep 4, 2024 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 170.5K | $61.0M |
| Mar 31, 2023 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 222.6K | $49.1M |
| Nov 13, 2024 | KUNINS JEFFREY C
Chief Technology Officer
|
Sell | 43.7K | $26.3M |
| Nov 5, 2021 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 141.8K | $26.0M |
| Oct 21, 2021 | SMITH PATRICK W.
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 138.7K | $25.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Axon Enterprise's stock price forecast for 2030?
Axon Enterprise's stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $891.22, with a downside scenario of $249.41 and an upside scenario of $3,184.58. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Axon Enterprise stock a buy right now?
Axon Enterprise (AXON) is currently rated 'Sell' by our AI analysis due to heavy insider selling and bearish technicals, despite a 'Buy' consensus from Wall Street analysts. The stock is trading significantly below its moving averages with an oversold RSI, suggesting caution.
What are the biggest risks facing Axon Enterprise?
The primary risks for Axon Enterprise include substantial insider selling totaling over $203 million, a highly elevated P/E ratio of 206.38, and bearish technical indicators such as trading below key moving averages and an oversold RSI.
How is Axon Enterprise performing financially?
Axon Enterprise is demonstrating strong revenue growth, with current year projections indicating a 33.00% year-over-year increase. However, its P/E ratio is significantly higher than the sector average, and recent earnings have shown mixed price reactions despite some EPS beats.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Axon Enterprise stock?
Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus for Axon Enterprise, with a median price target of $700, implying a 45.2% upside from the current price. The consensus score is 79 out of 100, with 18 out of 21 analysts recommending a Buy or Strong Buy.
How does Axon Enterprise's valuation compare to its sector?
Axon Enterprise's P/E ratio of 206.38 is substantially higher than the Industrials sector median of 34. This indicates that the stock is trading at a significant premium, which could be a risk if growth expectations are not met.
What is the recent insider trading activity for Axon Enterprise?
Insider activity for Axon Enterprise shows a heavy insider selling, with total sales amounting to $203.5 million compared to only $1 million in purchases. This significant net selling by insiders suggests a bearish sentiment.