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As of September 11, 2026, Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) trades at $99.22. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $112.00, 12.9% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $112.00 across 36 analysts. RSI at 38 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $105.25.
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
Starbucks Corp. NASDAQ
$99.22
-0.8200 (-0.82%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) is currently trading at $99.22, below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $105.25, indicating near-term weakness. The stock's RSI is at 37.8, signaling bearish momentum. Despite this, the company has a history of beating earnings estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 30.77% EPS surprise. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Hold' consensus with a median price target of $112, suggesting a modest upside of 12.9%. However, recent insider transactions show a net seller position, with $267.8M in total sales versus $22.0M in total purchases, indicating caution from management. The company is projected to have flat revenue growth of approximately 2.00% for the current and next fiscal years. While Starbucks has a history of strong earnings beats, the current technical indicators and insider sentiment suggest a period of consolidation rather than significant upside in the near term. The dividend yield stands at approximately 2.48%, providing some income support for investors.
SBUX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$100.37
Day Range
$98.78 to $101.67
Prev Close
$100.04
Volume
6.98M
52-Week Range
$77.99 to $110.51
Market Cap
$113.11B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Cyclical)
Performance vs XLY
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+176%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
SBUX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, SBUX beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
SBUX Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+12.88% Upside
Median of 36 analysts (12-month)
$112.00
AI Technical Analysis
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $105.25, indicating a bearish trend in the short to medium term. The stock is currently above its 200-day SMA of $97.90, suggesting that longer-term support remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.8 is in bearish territory, reinforcing the notion of weakening momentum. The MACD is also negative at -0.98, further supporting a bearish technical outlook. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 6.98 million compared to an average of 5.63 million, suggesting increased trading activity but not necessarily conviction. Key support is seen around the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA. The current price action suggests a potential for further downside towards the 200-day SMA if bearish momentum persists, especially given the bearish RSI and MACD signals.
ProTips
- Monitor Starbucks' upcoming earnings reports closely for any signs of revenue growth acceleration, which would be a key catalyst for upside.
- Given the bearish technical momentum and the stock trading below its 50-day SMA, consider waiting for a confirmed bullish reversal signal before initiating new long positions.
- With a dividend yield of approximately 2.48%, Starbucks offers some income, but investors should weigh this against the valuation and growth concerns.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Consistent EPS Beats
Starbucks has demonstrated a strong track record of exceeding analyst EPS estimates, as seen in the latest quarter's 30.77% surprise, which could support investor confidence.
Source: Earnings ReportBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $2 million worth of stock versus $994,500 purchased, indicating a net seller position that may signal caution regarding near-term stock performance.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Bearish Technical Momentum
The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA and exhibits a bearish RSI of 37.8, suggesting potential for further price declines in the short term.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Projected Flat Revenue Growth
Revenue growth is expected to remain flat at approximately 2.00% for the current and next fiscal years, indicating a lack of significant top-line expansion.
Source: Revenue EstimatesMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) anticipates a period of consolidation, with a fair value target of $112.00, implying a 12.9% upside from the current price of $99.22. This projection is supported by the median Wall Street price target and the company's history of earnings beats, which could provide a floor for the stock. The projected flat revenue growth for the upcoming fiscal years, however, limits the potential for significant near-term appreciation. Key factors that could alter this outlook include a significant acceleration in revenue growth, potentially driven by successful new product launches or international expansion, which could push the stock towards its higher long-term projections. Conversely, persistent negative revenue trends, increased competition, or a failure to meet earnings expectations could lead to a decline towards the lower end of the projected range, especially given the current bearish technical signals and elevated valuation.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 113.11B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.35 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.73 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.50% |
| 52 Week High | 110.51 |
| 52 Week Low | 77.99 |
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) exhibits a P/E ratio of 57.35, significantly higher than the sector median of 20.8, indicating a premium valuation relative to its peers. The company's revenue growth has been negative at -1.4% in the last reported period, contrasting with the sector median of 6.7%. This suggests that the current valuation may not be fully supported by fundamental growth metrics. While the company has demonstrated strong EPS beats in recent quarters, the overall revenue trajectory and high P/E ratio present a risk. The sector averages show a Return on Equity (ROE) of 12.5%, and while specific ROE for Starbucks is not provided, the valuation suggests high expectations for future profitability and growth that are not currently reflected in its revenue performance. Investors should monitor future revenue growth and margin trends to justify the current premium valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) has shown a pattern of beating earnings estimates in recent quarters, with the latest report on July 29, 2026, showing an EPS of $0.85 against an estimate of $0.65, a 30.77% surprise. This follows a 13.64% surprise in April 2026. However, the company's revenue growth has been negative, with the current quarter's revenue estimated to be down 4.00% year-over-year. This divergence between strong EPS beats and negative revenue growth warrants close attention.
Key Risks
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) faces valuation risk due to its high P/E ratio of 57.35 compared to the sector median of 20.8, especially with recent negative revenue growth. Moderate insider selling, with $2 million in sales versus $994,500 in purchases, suggests a degree of caution among management. Also, the stock is trading below its 50-day SMA with bearish technical indicators, indicating potential for further price declines.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 37.80 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.98 |
| SMA 50 | 105.25 |
| SMA 200 | 97.90 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($105.25) above the 200-day SMA ($97.90), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.44
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.17
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
SBUX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$98.23
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$99.22
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$93.92
MAX LOSS
-4.4%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (37.8) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$101.17
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$103.14
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$106.09
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for SBUX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in SBUX in September 2016 would be worth about $18,136 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SBUX today could grow to about $19,003 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $62,721 and a bear case around $5,757. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
SBUX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $128 for SBUX by 2030 in the base case, from $99.22 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $60.27. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SBUX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $72.52 | $106 | $154 |
| 2028 | $66.14 | $113 | $192 |
| 2029 | $62.55 | $120 | $231 |
| 2030 | $60.27 | $128 | $273 |
| 2031 | $58.79 | $137 | $318 |
| 2032 | $57.83 | $146 | $368 |
| 2033 | $57.26 | $156 | $422 |
| 2034 | $56.99 | $166 | $483 |
| 2035 | $56.96 | $177 | $549 |
| 2036 | $57.12 | $189 | $622 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SBUX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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SBUX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$994.5K
1 Transactions
Sold
$2.0M
12 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$232.5K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2021 | JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 359.2K | $44.1M |
| Dec 8, 2021 | JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 250.0K | $29.0M |
| Apr 5, 2021 | JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 170.0K | $18.9M |
| Aug 6, 2021 | CULVER JOHN
Chief Operating Officer
|
Sell | 148.6K | $17.7M |
| Apr 1, 2021 | JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 153.3K | $16.7M |
| Feb 7, 2019 | CULVER JOHN
Officer
|
Sell | 169.1K | $11.6M |
| Nov 17, 2020 | JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 107.8K | $10.6M |
| Nov 9, 2020 | JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 107.8K | $10.4M |
| Jan 29, 2019 | BURROWS CLIFFORD
Officer
|
Sell | 152.6K | $10.3M |
| Oct 9, 2020 | JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 107.8K | $9.7M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Starbucks stock a buy right now?
Starbucks (SBUX) is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts with a median price target of $112, implying a 12.9% upside from the current price of $99.22. While the company has a history of beating earnings estimates, its high P/E ratio, negative revenue growth, and bearish technical indicators suggest a cautious approach is warranted.
What is Starbucks' fair value?
Based on our analysis, Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) has a fair value estimate of $112.00, offering a potential upside of 12.9% from its current trading price of $99.22.
What are the biggest risks facing Starbucks stock?
The primary risks for Starbucks (SBUX) include its elevated valuation (P/E of 57.35 vs. sector median of 20.8), recent negative revenue growth, and moderate insider selling. Bearish technical momentum, indicated by the RSI and its position below the 50-day SMA, also poses a risk.
What is the outlook for Starbucks' revenue growth?
Starbucks (SBUX) is projected to experience flat revenue growth, with estimates indicating approximately 2.00% growth for both the current and next fiscal years. This contrasts with the sector median revenue growth of 6.7%.
How is Starbucks performing on earnings?
Starbucks (SBUX) has consistently beaten earnings per share (EPS) estimates in recent quarters, most recently reporting a 30.77% EPS surprise in July 2026. However, this strong EPS performance has not translated into positive revenue growth.
What do Wall Street analysts think of Starbucks stock?
Wall Street analysts hold a 'Hold' consensus for Starbucks (SBUX), with 17 out of 36 analysts rating it as 'Hold'. The median price target is $112, suggesting limited upside from the current price.
What is SBUX stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) has a base case forecast of $128.27 for 2030, with a downside projection of $60.27 and an upside projection of $272.97. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.