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As of September 9, 2026, FedEx Corp. (FDX) trades at $309.24. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $359.50, 16.3% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $359.50 across 28 analysts. RSI at 33 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $319.03.
FedEx Corp. (FDX)
FedEx Corp. NYSE
$309.24
-4.890 (-1.56%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is currently trading at $309.24, below its 50-day SMA ($319.03) but above its 200-day SMA ($292.65), signaling a bearish technical momentum. The company's consensus rating is Hold, supported by a consensus score of 55, reflecting a balanced view of its prospects. Wall Street analysts maintain a predominantly Buy rating with a median price target of $359.50, suggesting a potential 16.3% upside from current levels. However, recent insider activity shows a net seller position, with $26 million in sales versus no reported purchases, indicating caution among management. Fundamental analysis reveals a mixed picture. While the company has a reasonable P/E ratio of 16.63 compared to the sector average of 25.5, projected revenue growth for the current year is negative at -6.00%, with only a modest rebound expected next year at +4.00%. This contrasts with the sector's average revenue growth of 10.00%. The company's health score is moderate at 3, suggesting areas for improvement. Key risks include the projected revenue contraction and the ongoing insider selling, which could weigh on investor sentiment.
FDX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$311.86
Day Range
$308.58 to $313.00
Prev Close
$314.13
Volume
1.01M
52-Week Range
$178.33 to $345.37
Market Cap
$73.19B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs XLI
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-35%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds.
FDX Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, FDX beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
FDX Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+16.25% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$359.50
AI Technical Analysis
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is trading below its 50-day SMA of $319.03 and its 20-day EMA of $322.90, indicating short-term weakness, though it remains above its 200-day SMA of $292.65. The RSI is at 33.26, classified as bearish, reinforcing the notion of weakening momentum. MACD is also negative at -1.07, further supporting a bearish technical outlook. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 1.01 million compared to an average of 1.51 million, suggesting a lack of conviction behind current price movements. Key support is identified at the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA. The current price action suggests a potential for further downside if the 200-day SMA is breached, given the bearish technical indicators. Investors should monitor volume for signs of increased conviction in either direction.
ProTips
- Monitor FedEx's upcoming earnings reports closely for signs of revenue stabilization or continued contraction, as this will be a key driver of future performance.
- Given the bearish technicals and moderate insider selling, consider a more conservative position sizing until a clear bullish trend emerges.
- The company's dividend yield of approximately 1.53% provides a modest income stream, but investors should prioritize capital appreciation given the current growth challenges.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Projected Revenue Decline
Current year revenue is projected to decline by 6.00%, indicating significant headwinds for the company's top line.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Moderate Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $26 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, signaling a lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider Transaction DataBullish
Positive Wall Street Consensus
A majority of Wall Street analysts maintain a Buy rating, with a median price target of $359.50, suggesting a potential 16.3% upside from current levels.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBullish
Earnings Beat in Recent Quarters
FedEx has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, demonstrating operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.
Source: Recent Earnings DataMarket Outlook
FedEx Corp. (FDX) faces a challenging near-term outlook, with projected revenue declines of -6.00% for the current year and a modest rebound to +4.00% expected next year. The company's technical indicators are bearish, with the RSI at 33.26 and the stock trading below key moving averages, suggesting potential for further price pressure. The median analyst price target of $359.50 indicates a 16.3% upside, but this is contingent on the company reversing its revenue contraction trend. Key catalysts for a bullish shift would include stronger-than-expected revenue growth, a reversal in insider selling trends, and a sustained move above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Conversely, continued revenue declines, increased insider selling, or a breach of the 200-day SMA could lead to further downside, potentially testing the lower end of analyst targets and long-range projections.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 73.19B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.63 |
| EPS (TTM) | 18.57 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.53% |
| 52 Week High | 345.37 |
| 52 Week Low | 178.33 |
FedEx Corp. (FDX) exhibits a P/E ratio of 16.63, which is below the Industrials sector average of 25.5, suggesting a potential valuation discount. However, this is tempered by a projected negative revenue growth of -6.00% for the current year, significantly underperforming the sector average of 10.00%. While forward revenue growth is expected to turn positive next year at +4.00%, it remains below the sector's historical growth rate. The company's profitability, as indicated by its EPS of $18.57, appears solid on a trailing twelve-month basis. However, the forward revenue outlook and the moderate health score of 3 suggest that the company may face challenges in translating its current valuation into significant future growth. The dividend yield of approximately 1.53% offers some return to shareholders, but the overall fundamental picture is mixed, with valuation appearing attractive relative to peers but growth prospects lagging.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
FedEx Corp. (FDX) most recently reported Q4 2026 earnings on July 22, 2026, with an EPS of $2.99, beating the estimate of $2.91 by 2.75%. This beat was accompanied by a -1.68% price change. Prior quarters also showed a pattern of earnings beats, including a significant 25.6% surprise in Q3 2026 and a 16.15% surprise in Q2 2026. Despite these positive earnings surprises, the stock price reaction has been mixed, with recent quarters showing slight declines or minimal gains.
Key Risks
FedEx Corp. (FDX) faces significant risks from projected revenue declines of -6.00% for the current year, which is substantially below the sector average. Also, moderate insider selling, with $26 million in sales versus no purchases, signals a lack of strong conviction from management. The company's technical indicators are also bearish, with the RSI below 40 and the stock trading below key moving averages, suggesting potential for further price depreciation.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 33.26 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -1.07 |
| SMA 50 | 319.03 |
| SMA 200 | 292.65 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($319.03) above the 200-day SMA ($292.65), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.39
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
FDX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$306.15
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$309.24
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$296.96
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (33.3) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$315.33
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$321.45
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$330.64
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for FDX is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in FDX in September 2016 would be worth about $24,236 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in FDX today could grow to about $22,094 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $85,431 and a bear case around $5,714. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
FDX Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $425 for FDX by 2030 in the base case, from $309 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $181. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FDX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $218 | $335 | $513 |
| 2028 | $198 | $362 | $663 |
| 2029 | $187 | $392 | $823 |
| 2030 | $181 | $425 | $999 |
| 2031 | $177 | $460 | $1,196 |
| 2032 | $175 | $498 | $1,418 |
| 2033 | $174 | $539 | $1,670 |
| 2034 | $174 | $583 | $1,955 |
| 2035 | $175 | $631 | $2,277 |
| 2036 | $177 | $683 | $2,642 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using FDX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
FDX Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$26.0M
12 Transactions
Insiders
25
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$2.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | SMITH FREDERICK W
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 113.4K | $31.1M |
| Apr 11, 2023 | SMITH FREDERICK W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 131.8K | $30.6M |
| Apr 15, 2021 | SMITH FREDERICK W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 102.0K | $29.6M |
| Jun 28, 2024 | ALLEN MARK RUSSELL
General Counsel
|
Sell | 77.9K | $23.0M |
| May 7, 2020 | SMITH FREDERICK W
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 155.8K | $18.3M |
| Apr 14, 2026 | ADAMS GINA F
General Counsel
|
Sell | 20.5K | $7.5M |
| Apr 15, 2026 | BRIGHTMAN TRACY B
Officer
|
Sell | 17.0K | $6.2M |
| Sep 18, 2020 | MERINO JOHN L
Officer
|
Sell | 25.0K | $6.1M |
| May 5, 2021 | MAIER HENRY J
Officer
|
Sell | 19.4K | $5.9M |
| May 3, 2021 | COLLERAN DONALD F
Officer
|
Sell | 17.2K | $5.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is FedEx Corp. (FDX) stock a buy right now?
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is currently rated Hold, with a consensus score of 55. While Wall Street analysts have a positive outlook with a median price target of $359.50, suggesting a 16.3% upside, the stock faces headwinds from projected revenue declines and moderate insider selling.
What is FedEx Corp.'s (FDX) long-term outlook?
FedEx Corp.'s (FDX) long-term outlook is moderately positive, with a projected revenue growth of +4.00% for next year and a Monte Carlo simulation suggesting a base case price of $424.62 by 2030. However, this is balanced by a downside projection of $180.52, indicating significant volatility potential.
What are the biggest risks for FedEx Corp. (FDX)?
The primary risks for FedEx Corp. (FDX) include projected revenue contraction in the current year, a bearish technical momentum indicated by its RSI and moving average positions, and moderate insider selling activity totaling $26 million.
How does FedEx Corp. (FDX) compare to its sector averages?
FedEx Corp. (FDX) trades at a lower P/E ratio (16.63) than the Industrials sector average (25.5), but its projected revenue growth (-6.00%) significantly lags the sector average of 10.00%.
What is FedEx Corp.'s (FDX) current valuation?
FedEx Corp. (FDX) has a P/E ratio of 16.63 and a price-to-sales ratio that is likely below the sector average, given its current market capitalization relative to its revenue. The fair value is estimated at $359.50, implying a 16.3% upside.
What is the analyst consensus for FedEx Corp. (FDX)?
The analyst consensus for FedEx Corp. (FDX) is predominantly Buy, with 4 Strong Buys, 16 Buys, and 6 Holds out of 28 analysts. The overall Wall Street score is 69 out of 100.
What is FDX stock forecast for 2030?
The projected base case price for FDX stock in 2030 is $424.62, based on Monte Carlo simulations. The downside projection is $180.52, and the upside projection is $998.78. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.