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As of September 26, 2026, Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) trades at $73.95. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $40.00, 45.9% below the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $110.00 across 20 analysts. RSI at 67 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $69.49.
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB)
Rocket Lab Corporation NASDAQ
$73.95
0.3400 (0.46%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is currently trading at $73.95, below its 200-day moving average of $81.09, indicating a bearish trend despite recent bullish momentum signals. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with current quarter estimates showing a 66.00% year-over-year increase, and forward estimates projecting 42.00% growth next year. However, this growth is overshadowed by substantial insider selling, with over $972 million in sales versus zero purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. The company's valuation metrics, such as a price-to-sales ratio of 61.48, are significantly higher than the sector median of 4.00, suggesting it is overvalued relative to its peers. The negative profit margin of -21.51% and EPS of -0.29 also point to ongoing profitability challenges. Analysts maintain a generally positive outlook with a consensus 'Buy' rating and a median price target of $110.00, implying an upside of 48.7%. However, the significant insider selling pressure and the stark contrast between the company's current valuation and its profitability metrics present a considerable risk. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.04, which is a positive, but the overall financial health is impacted by consistent losses. Investors should closely monitor future earnings reports and any changes in insider transaction patterns.
RKLB Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$74.15
Day Range
$72.78 to $75.32
Prev Close
$73.61
Volume
18.80M
52-Week Range
$37.57 to $151.00
Market Cap
$47.28B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, RKLB trades at 61.48x, far above the sector average of 4.00x.
RKLB Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, RKLB beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
RKLB Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is currently trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $69.49 and its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $68.50, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, the stock is trading below its 200-day SMA of $81.09, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67.21, which is in the 'BULLISH' territory, signaling strong upward momentum. The MACD is at 0.199, also indicating positive momentum. Despite the bullish short-term indicators, the price action relative to the 200-day SMA and the substantial insider selling present a cautionary signal for sustained upward movement. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with 18.8 million shares traded compared to the average of 21.8 million.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction patterns closely; the current heavy selling pressure is a significant bearish signal that outweighs positive revenue growth.
- Given the stock is trading below its 200-day SMA and faces substantial insider selling, consider risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders at least 1.5x the daily volatility away from the current price.
- The company's high valuation relative to its profitability and sector peers warrants caution. Investors should look for clear signs of improving margins and earnings before considering a long-term position.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Exceeds $972 Million
Insiders have sold over $972 million worth of RKLB stock with no reported purchases, indicating a significant lack of confidence from management and a strong bearish signal.
Source: Insider Transactions DataBearish
Valuation Disconnect with Sector Peers
Rocket Lab's price-to-sales ratio of 61.48 is substantially higher than the sector median of 4.00, suggesting the stock is significantly overvalued and vulnerable to a correction.
Source: Company FundamentalsBullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Current year revenue estimates show a 59.00% year-over-year increase, with next year projected at 42.00%, indicating strong top-line expansion potential.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Short-Term Technical Momentum
The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA and 20-day EMA, with an RSI of 67.21 in bullish territory, suggesting positive short-term price momentum.
Source: Technical Analysis DataBearish
Persistent Negative Earnings
The company continues to report negative EPS and profit margins, raising concerns about its path to profitability despite revenue growth.
Source: Company FundamentalsMarket Outlook
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) faces a challenging outlook despite strong revenue growth projections and bullish short-term technical signals. The company's current price of $73.95 is below its 200-day moving average, and the heavy insider selling of over $972 million suggests significant internal concerns that outweigh positive analyst sentiment. The projected revenue growth for the next year at 42.00% is strong, but the persistent negative earnings and a price-to-sales ratio of 61.48, far above the sector median, indicate a high valuation that is difficult to justify without a clear path to profitability. The base case scenario for the next 6-12 months suggests continued pressure on the stock, potentially testing lower support levels. Upside catalysts would need to include a significant shift in insider transaction patterns, a clear demonstration of profitability in upcoming earnings reports, or a substantial reduction in valuation multiples. Conversely, downside risks include continued insider divestitures, failure to meet revenue growth targets, or increased competition in the aerospace and defense sector, which could further pressure the stock price towards its fair value estimate of $40.00.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 47.28B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.2900 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 151.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 37.57 |
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) exhibits a mixed fundamental picture, characterized by strong revenue growth but persistent unprofitability and a high valuation. The company's revenue growth is strong, with current year estimates projecting a 59.00% increase year-over-year, and next year's estimates showing a 42.00% growth. However, its profit margin is significantly negative at -21.51%, and its EPS stands at -0.29, indicating significant losses. The price-to-sales ratio is a steep 61.48, far exceeding the sector median of 4.00, suggesting the stock is trading at a substantial premium. While the debt-to-equity ratio is a healthy 0.04, indicating low leverage, the company's ability to achieve profitability remains a key concern. The return on equity is also negative at -7.92%.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) has shown a pattern of mixed earnings performance. In the quarter to June 2026, the company reported an EPS of -0.08, matching estimates with a 0% surprise and a slight price decrease of 0.04%. This follows a significant beat in the quarter to March 2026, where EPS was -0.02 against an estimate of -0.04, a 50% surprise, leading to a 34.22% price increase. Prior to that, the quarter to March 2026 also saw a substantial EPS beat of 85.19%. Despite these positive surprises in prior quarters, the company consistently reports negative EPS, and the most recent quarter showed no surprise and a negative price reaction, indicating that current revenue growth is not yet translating into profitability.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is the heavy insider selling, with over $972 million in sales versus no reported purchases, suggesting a lack of management confidence. The company's valuation is also a major concern, with a price-to-sales ratio of 61.48 significantly higher than the sector median of 4.00, indicating it is overvalued. Also, persistent negative earnings and profit margins (-21.51%) highlight ongoing profitability challenges that could deter long-term investment.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 67.21 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 0.20 |
| SMA 50 | 69.49 |
| SMA 200 | 81.09 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $69.49, 200-day: $81.09), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.47
Moderate correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.50
Moderate correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.41
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with RKLB? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
RKLB Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$75.43
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$73.95
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$79.37
MAX LOSS
-5.2%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (67.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$71.66
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$67.89
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$64.11
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
RKLB is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.35%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in RKLB in November 2020 would be worth about $75,893 today, compared with about $21,236 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in RKLB today could grow to about $51,265 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $388,926 and a bear case around $6,757. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
RKLB Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $142 for RKLB by 2030 in the base case, from $73.95 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $39.47. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on RKLB's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $45.88 | $87.08 | $165 |
| 2028 | $41.43 | $103 | $254 |
| 2029 | $39.80 | $121 | $366 |
| 2030 | $39.47 | $142 | $512 |
| 2031 | $39.95 | $167 | $702 |
| 2032 | $41.03 | $197 | $947 |
| 2033 | $42.61 | $232 | $1,265 |
| 2034 | $44.63 | $273 | $1,675 |
| 2035 | $47.09 | $322 | $2,201 |
| 2036 | $49.97 | $379 | $2,876 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using RKLB's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. RKLB is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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RKLB Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$972.2M
60 Transactions
Insiders
15
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$16.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | BECK PETER
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 3.3M | $286.4M |
| Dec 16, 2025 | BECK PETER
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 2.5M | $141.1M |
| Sep 16, 2025 | BECK PETER
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 2.5M | $127.5M |
| Jan 5, 2026 | SPICE ADAM C
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 1.4M | $103.1M |
| Nov 15, 2024 | OCKO MATTHEW A
Director
|
Sell | 5.4M | $96.8M |
| Sep 16, 2025 | OCKO MATTHEW A
Director
|
Sell | 1.9M | $90.3M |
| Sep 19, 2025 | SPICE ADAM C
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 874.6K | $42.0M |
| Jun 13, 2025 | OCKO MATTHEW A
Director
|
Sell | 1.0M | $26.6M |
| Sep 11, 2023 | BECK PETER
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 3.6M | $20.2M |
| May 27, 2026 | KAMPANI ARJUN E
General Counsel
|
Sell | 98.7K | $14.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Rocket Lab Corporation's stock price prediction for 2030?
Rocket Lab Corporation's (RKLB) long-range projection for 2030 indicates a base case price of $142.19, with a downside scenario of $39.47 and an upside scenario of $512.22. These figures are derived from Monte Carlo simulations and should not be considered definitive price targets.
Is Rocket Lab Corporation stock a buy right now?
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) is currently rated 'Sell' by our AI consensus with a score of 21 out of 100. While analysts have a 'Buy' consensus and a median price target of $110.00, significant insider selling and a high valuation present considerable risks.
What is Rocket Lab Corporation's current financial health?
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, reporting a negative profit margin of -21.51% and negative EPS of -0.29. Its debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.04, indicating minimal leverage.
How does Rocket Lab Corporation compare to its sector averages?
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) significantly outperforms the Industrials sector in revenue growth, with current year estimates at 59.00% compared to the sector median of 11.70%. However, its valuation metrics are stretched, with a price-to-sales ratio of 61.48 versus the sector median of 4.00, and its profitability metrics like ROE (-7.92%) lag behind the sector median of 17.80%.
What are the key risks facing Rocket Lab Corporation?
The primary risks for Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) include substantial insider selling totaling over $972 million, a high valuation with a price-to-sales ratio of 61.48, and persistent negative earnings and profit margins.
What is Rocket Lab Corporation's recent earnings performance?
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) has demonstrated mixed earnings results, with a significant EPS beat in the quarter to March 2026. However, the most recent quarter to June 2026 showed an EPS of -0.08 matching estimates, with no surprise and a slight price decrease, indicating a slowdown in positive momentum.
What is the Wall Street consensus for Rocket Lab Corporation?
Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus for Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB), with 4 Strong Buys, 12 Buys, and 4 Holds among 20 analysts. The median price target is $110.00, suggesting an upside of 48.7% from the current price.