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As of September 9, 2026, Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) trades at $162.33. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $195.00, 20.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $195.00 across 13 analysts. RSI at 20 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $179.95.
Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)
Boston Beer Company, Inc. NYSE
$162.33
0.2700 (0.17%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is trading at $162.33, significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($179.95 and $203.14), signaling a bearish trend. The company faces headwinds with a reported revenue decline of 3.3% year-over-year for the current year, and forward estimates suggest flat growth next year. Persistent insider selling, with $1.6 million in sales versus no purchases in the last reporting period, further dampens sentiment. While the stock's RSI is oversold at 20.02, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, the fundamental and insider activity suggest a challenging outlook. SAM's valuation is difficult to assess due to negative EPS of -6.68, making P/E ratio analysis impossible. The company's sector, Consumer Defensive, is expected to see revenue growth of 10.0%, highlighting SAM's underperformance. The median Wall Street price target of $195.00 suggests a 20.1% upside from the current price, but the consensus rating is 'Hold' with 11 out of 13 analysts recommending the same, reflecting caution. Key risks include ongoing competitive pressures in the beverage market and the potential for continued negative sales momentum.
SAM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$161.11
Day Range
$160.45 to $166.22
Prev Close
$162.06
Volume
299.7K
52-Week Range
$158.68 to $264.46
Market Cap
$1.67B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs VDC
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-6% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
SAM Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, SAM beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
SAM Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Volume has surged 64.8% above its average, accompanying the recent price action for Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM). The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($179.95 and $203.14), and its 20-day EMA ($176.84), indicating a strong bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to an oversold level of 20.02, suggesting a potential for a near-term reversal, though this is not guaranteed given the prevailing downward momentum. Key support levels are being tested, with the current price of $162.33 hovering near recent lows. The MACD indicator is negative at -4.29, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. While the oversold RSI presents a possibility for a bounce, the sustained price weakness relative to key moving averages and the significant volume increase suggest that downward pressure may continue until fundamental catalysts emerge or insider selling abates.
ProTips
- Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for any signs of revenue stabilization or growth, as this is critical for SAM's turnaround potential.
- Given the bearish technicals and oversold RSI, traders may look for short-term opportunities on any bounce, but the prevailing trend suggests caution for longer-term positions.
- The persistent insider selling is a key risk factor; any shift to net buying activity from insiders would be a significant positive signal.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Persistent Insider Selling Continues
Insiders have sold $1.6 million worth of SAM stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects and potentially signaling further downside.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Negative Revenue Growth Trend
SAM reported a 3.3% year-over-year revenue decline, and current estimates project flat growth for the next fiscal year, significantly lagging sector peers and raising concerns about market share.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesBearish
Bearish Technical Setup
The stock is trading below key moving averages (50-day, 200-day, 20-day EMA) with a negative MACD, reinforcing a bearish trend despite an oversold RSI.
Source: Technical AnalysisNeutral
Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus
With a median price target of $195.00, analysts maintain a 'Hold' rating, reflecting a balanced view of potential upside against current fundamental challenges.
Source: Wall Street SummaryMarket Outlook
The base case outlook for Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is cautious, with a median Wall Street price target of $195.00 suggesting a potential 20.1% upside from current levels. However, this target is tempered by a 'Hold' consensus rating and ongoing negative fundamental trends. The company's revenue has declined, and forward estimates show minimal growth, which contrasts sharply with sector averages. A significant turnaround in sales and profitability would be required to achieve higher valuations. Potential catalysts for a bullish shift would include a clear reversal in revenue trends, positive earnings surprises, and a cessation of insider selling. Conversely, continued sales declines, increased competition, or further negative earnings surprises could push the stock towards its lower support levels. The long-range projection suggests a base case of $180.92 by 2030, but with significant downside risk to $63.67.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 1.67B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -6.68 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 264.46 |
| 52 Week Low | 158.68 |
Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) presents a challenging fundamental picture, with a negative EPS of -6.68 rendering traditional P/E ratio analysis impossible. The company's revenue has contracted by 3.3% year-over-year, and current year revenue estimates project a further 2.00% decline, with next year's growth expected to be flat at 0.00%. This contrasts sharply with the sector average revenue growth of 10.00%, indicating SAM is losing market share or facing significant headwinds. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the negative profitability and revenue trends raise concerns. The current valuation is difficult to justify given the lack of growth and profitability. While the median analyst target price of $195.00 offers a potential upside, the 'Hold' consensus and the company's current financial trajectory suggest that the stock may struggle to reach these levels without a significant turnaround in sales and profitability.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) has shown a pattern of missing earnings estimates in recent quarters. The latest earnings report on July 23, 2026, showed an EPS of $3.65 against an estimate of $4.83, a miss of 24.43%, which was followed by a 3.23% price increase. Prior to that, on April 30, 2026, the company missed estimates by 16.75% with an EPS of $1.64 versus $1.97, leading to a 9.59% price drop. While there was a positive surprise in October 2025, the overall trend indicates significant earnings volatility and a struggle to meet analyst expectations.
Key Risks
Persistent insider selling, with $1.6 million in sales and no reported purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management in the company's near-term prospects. The company is experiencing negative revenue growth, with current year sales down 3.3% and projected flat growth for next year, significantly underperforming the sector average. Also, the stock is trading well below its key moving averages, with an oversold RSI suggesting potential for further downside if current trends persist.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 20.02 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -4.29 |
| SMA 50 | 179.95 |
| SMA 200 | 203.14 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $179.95, 200-day: $203.14), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 20.0 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.13
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.08
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
SAM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$165.58
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$162.33
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$175.40
MAX LOSS
-5.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (20.0) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$157.30
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$149.02
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$140.74
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for SAM is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in SAM in September 2016 would be worth about $9,300 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SAM today could grow to about $13,113 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $68,359 and a bear case around $2,516. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
SAM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $181 for SAM by 2030 in the base case, from $162 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $63.67. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SAM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $98.95 | $167 | $281 |
| 2028 | $81.89 | $171 | $359 |
| 2029 | $71.28 | $176 | $435 |
| 2030 | $63.67 | $181 | $514 |
| 2031 | $57.84 | $186 | $597 |
| 2032 | $53.16 | $191 | $686 |
| 2033 | $49.30 | $196 | $781 |
| 2034 | $46.05 | $202 | $883 |
| 2035 | $43.26 | $207 | $992 |
| 2036 | $40.83 | $213 | $1,110 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SAM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
SAM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$1.6M
3 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$524.4K
Moderate size
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2021 | GEIST JOHN C
Officer
|
Sell | 11.7K | $11.1M |
| Nov 4, 2020 | FISHER CYNTHIA A
Director
|
Sell | 10.2K | $10.5M |
| Oct 26, 2021 | CALAGIONE SAMUEL A III
Officer
|
Sell | 20.5K | $10.2M |
| Sep 9, 2020 | KOCH C. JAMES
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 12.8K | $10.2M |
| Aug 11, 2023 | CALAGIONE SAMUEL A III
Officer
|
Sell | 27.0K | $9.7M |
| Dec 11, 2020 | KOCH C. JAMES
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 10.0K | $9.4M |
| Dec 1, 2020 | KOCH C. JAMES
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 10.0K | $9.4M |
| Dec 8, 2020 | KOCH C. JAMES
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 10.0K | $9.4M |
| Dec 9, 2020 | KOCH C. JAMES
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 10.0K | $9.4M |
| Dec 7, 2020 | KOCH C. JAMES
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 10.0K | $9.4M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) stock a buy right now?
SAM is currently rated 'Sell' with a consensus score of 20, reflecting significant headwinds. While the stock is oversold technically, persistent insider selling and negative revenue growth present substantial risks, making it a difficult buy at this time.
What is SAM's long-term outlook based on the Monte Carlo simulation?
The Monte Carlo simulation for SAM projects a base case price of $180.92 by 2030, with a downside scenario of $63.67 and an upside scenario of $514.05. These are statistical outcomes and not definitive price targets.
What are the key risks facing Boston Beer Company, Inc.?
The primary risks for SAM include ongoing negative revenue trends, significant insider selling, and a bearish technical setup. Competitive pressures within the beverage industry also pose a threat to market share and profitability.
How does SAM's revenue growth compare to its sector averages?
SAM's revenue growth is currently negative at -3.3%, significantly underperforming the Consumer Defensive sector average of 10.0%. Current year estimates project flat growth for SAM next year, indicating a continued struggle to gain traction.
What is the Wall Street consensus for SAM stock?
The Wall Street consensus for SAM is 'Hold', with 11 out of 13 analysts recommending this rating. The overall Wall Street score is 50 out of 100, indicating a neutral stance from analysts.
What does the insider trading activity suggest for SAM?
Insider activity for SAM shows a 'Moderate Sell Signal,' with $1.6 million in total sales and no reported purchases. This indicates a net selling pressure from insiders, which is a bearish indicator.
What is the current technical condition of SAM stock?
SAM's technicals are bearish, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($179.95 and $203.14). The RSI is at an oversold level of 20.02, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains downward.