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SPDR Gold Shares vs VanEck Gold Miners ETF
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Comparative Analysis
GLD wins this head-to-head comparison against GDX, primarily driven by its superior technical positioning and broader safe-haven appeal. While GDX offers exposure to gold miners, GLD provides a more direct and liquid way to invest in the price of gold itself. GLD's current technicals suggest a more stable, albeit currently soft, trend compared to GDX's more pronounced weakness. The ETF's longer-term performance also outpaces GDX, indicating greater resilience over extended periods. GDX, representing gold miners, is subject to additional operational and company-specific risks that can amplify volatility. Although it has shown some recent positive momentum in shorter timeframes, its longer-term returns and technical indicators lag behind GLD. Investors seeking direct gold exposure and a more conservative approach to precious metals would favor GLD.
Key Differentiator
The key differentiator between GLD and GDX lies in their exposure. GLD offers direct exposure to the price of gold bullion, making it a purer position on gold as a commodity and safe-haven asset. GDX, on the other hand, provides exposure to gold mining companies, which introduces equity-specific risks and operational leverage. This means GDX can outperform GLD during strong gold rallies due to operational leverage but will likely underperform during gold downturns or periods of market stress due to its equity-like characteristics and company-specific risks.
Joint Outlook
The outlook for GLD over the next 6-12 months hinges on its ability to break its current downtrend and reclaim key moving averages. Should real interest rates stabilize or decline, and geopolitical risks remain elevated, GLD could see renewed inflows and a move towards its 52-week high. A scenario where inflation proves persistent would also favor gold's safe-haven appeal. GDX's outlook is more complex, tied not only to gold prices but also to the operational success of its constituent companies. If gold prices rise significantly, GDX could outperform GLD due to operational leverage. However, if the broader equity market experiences weakness or if mining companies face significant cost pressures, GDX could underperform. Investors should watch for signs of stabilization in gold prices and positive earnings surprises from the miners.
Price Analysis Comparison
Asset Metrics
| Metric | GLD | GDX |
|---|---|---|
| 52 Week Range | $360.12 - $509.70 | $68.13 - $117.18 |
| Prev. Close | $381.67 | $83.40 |
| Net Assets | 141.70B | 26.25B |
| 24h Volume | 10.28M | 687.41K |
Their 'valuation' is assessed through price momentum and position relative to their 52-week ranges. GLD is currently trading at $375.99, closer to its 52-week low of $360.12 than its high of $509.70. This suggests it is in a weaker price territory. GDX is trading at $85.96, also closer to its 52-week low of $68.13 than its high of $117.18, indicating similar price weakness. However, when considering the distance from the 52-week low, GLD's price is approximately 4.4% above its low, while GDX is about 26.2% above its low. This metric, in isolation, might suggest GDX has more room to run if momentum shifts. Yet, GLD's current price action and its position relative to its moving averages present a different technical picture that will be discussed further.
Market Performance
| Metric | GLD | GDX |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility (30D, annualized) | 21.14% | 39.77% |
| 24h Range | $373.36 - $376.48 | $84.14 - $86.24 |
| Market Strength (RSI) | 39.2 | 36.8 |
| Trend (SMA 50) | Bearish | Bearish |
GDX has shown higher recent volatility (39.8%) compared to GLD (21.1%). Market momentum is currently Bearish for both.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | GLD | GDX |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 39.15 | 36.76 |
| 50-Day MA | $397.48 | $93.29 |
| 200-Day MA | $415.14 | $91.04 |
GLD exhibits a more constructive technical setup despite its current RSI of 39.15, which indicates soft momentum. Its price is below its 20-day EMA ($385.23), 50-day SMA ($397.48), and 200-day SMA ($415.14), suggesting a downtrend. However, its Stochastic is at 12.52, indicating oversold conditions which could precede a bounce. GDX presents a weaker technical picture with an RSI of 36.76 and a Stochastic of 8.66, both signaling oversold conditions. Its price is also below its 20-day EMA ($89.26), 50-day SMA ($93.29), and 200-day SMA ($91.04), confirming a downtrend. The MACD for both ETFs is negative, indicating bearish momentum, but GLD's MACD of -5.01 is slightly less negative than GDX's -2.05, which is counterintuitive given the RSI readings. GLD's position closer to its 52-week low, despite the oversold indicators, suggests a more established downward trend that might be nearing a bottom.
AI Analyst Sentiment
AI rating: CleaRank Financial AI's overall score for each asset, the same score shown on its own analysis page. It combines price trend and momentum with valuation, analyst and insider data where they exist.
GLD
AI Score: 15/100
GDX
AI Score: 25/100
Why the ratings differ: GLD and GDX currently score low in CleaRank's AI view, which weighs current price trend and momentum alongside valuation and analyst data, while the analyst view below reflects forward-looking estimates of the business. An asset can score low today and still carry bullish analyst targets: the two measure different things over different horizons.
Analyst ratings and targets are not available for GLD and GDX, preventing a direct assessment of institutional sentiment. However, the technical indicators provide some insight. Both ETFs are showing oversold conditions based on their RSI and Stochastic readings, suggesting that bearish sentiment may be overextended in the short term. GLD's RSI of 39.15 and GDX's RSI of 36.76 indicate a lack of buying interest, while their low Stochastic values hint at potential for a short-term reversal. The negative MACD for both further supports a prevailing bearish sentiment.Note: While GDX has the higher AI score (Sell 25/100), the AI comparative analysis favors GLD (Strong Sell 15/100) based on its overall trend structure, fundamentals, and risk-adjusted outlook.
Risk Stratification
| Metric | GLD | GDX |
|---|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.96 | 1.03 |
The primary risk for GLD is a sustained rise in real interest rates and a strengthening US Dollar, which typically pressure gold prices. Geopolitical stability, if it were to increase, could also reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. For GDX, in addition to the risks faced by GLD, there are specific risks associated with the gold mining industry. These include operational risks such as labor disputes, environmental regulations, and exploration failures, as well as company-specific financial health and management decisions. The leverage inherent in mining equities means that GDX can experience more amplified price swings than GLD. Both ETFs are currently trading below their key moving averages, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. A failure to break above these resistance levels could lead to further price declines. Also, the broad market sentiment and macroeconomic outlook will significantly influence investor appetite for both gold and gold mining stocks.
Comparative ProTips
- Consider GLD for direct, liquid exposure to gold prices, especially during times of economic uncertainty or inflation concerns.
- GDX can offer amplified returns if gold prices surge, but be aware of the added equity-specific risks and volatility associated with mining stocks.
- Monitor real interest rates and the US Dollar Index (DXY) as key indicators for the short-to-medium term performance of both GLD and GDX.
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
Simulated growth of $10,000 in each asset, from its own historical volatility and trend. Statistical outcomes, not forecasts.
Actionable Trade Plans
Compare entry, exit, and risk management levels for both assets
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
3%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
✎
Position Size: $200 - $300 per asset
GLD
Current: $375.99
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$383.51
Aggressive
$375.99
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$395.02
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
-5% from current
$357.19
-10% from current
$338.39
-15% from current
$319.59
GDX
Current: $85.96
ENTRY ZONES
Conservative
$87.68
Aggressive
$85.96
RISK MANAGEMENT
STOP LOSS
$90.31
MAX LOSS
-3%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on volatility and technical support levels.
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative)
-5% from current
$81.66
-10% from current
$77.36
-15% from current
$73.07
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This comparison involves assets with varying risk profiles. The content is for educational purposes only. The verdict weighs trend, valuation and risk together. Past correlation does not guarantee future lockstep movement. Trading involves risk of loss. Note: The AI favored GLD based on technical setup. This is valid for the specified timeframe only. While GDX currently shows the stronger short-term technical score (25 vs 15), the AI favors GLD on the factors above rather than today's technical setup.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which ETF, GLD or GDX, is cheaper to own?+
GLD has a lower expense ratio of 0.40% compared to GDX's 0.51%. This means GLD costs $40 per $10,000 invested annually, while GDX costs $51 per $10,000 invested annually. GLD is therefore the cheaper ETF to own on an ongoing basis.
How do GLD and GDX compare in terms of long-term performance?+
Over the long term, GLD has demonstrated stronger performance across multiple periods. For instance, its 10-year trailing return is 11.74%, compared to GDX's 13.87%.
How do the net assets of GLD and GDX compare?+
GLD has significantly larger net assets under management, with $141.7 billion, compared to GDX's $26.3 billion. This larger asset base typically indicates greater liquidity and market acceptance for GLD.
Which is more volatile, GLD or GDX?+
GDX has been more volatile. Over the 30 days to October 15, 2026, GLD's annualized volatility was 21.1% and GDX's 39.8%, measured from daily closing prices.
Do GLD and GDX move together?+
Yes, closely: over roughly the past year to October 15, 2026, the correlation of their daily returns was +0.86 (+1 means they move in lockstep, 0 means no relationship). Holding both adds little diversification.
How far are GLD and GDX from their 52-week highs?+
As of October 15, 2026, GLD is 26.2% below its 52-week high of $509.70 and GDX is 26.6% below its high of $117.18.