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As of September 9, 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) trades at $185.71. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $210.00, 13.1% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $210.00 across 16 analysts. RSI at 43 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $188.06.
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)
Philip Morris International Inc. NYSE
$185.71
0.9800 (0.53%)
At close: Sep 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
73 / 100
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is currently trading at $185.71, below its 50-day moving average of $188.06 but above its 200-day moving average of $174.69. The company's consensus rating is 'Buy' with a consensus score of 73, supported by 16 Wall Street analysts who have set a median price target of $210, implying a 13.1% upside. Revenue growth is projected to be around 7.00% for the current year, with analysts estimating $43.4 billion in revenue. The stock's recent earnings performance has been mixed, with a significant EPS beat of 200% in the most recent reported quarter (August 25, 2026), though prior quarters showed smaller beats or misses. The company pays a dividend yield of approximately 3.17%. Despite the mixed technical indicators, with the RSI at a neutral 42.94, the overall sentiment from Wall Street remains positive. The company's focus on reduced-risk products is a key strategic driver. However, the tobacco sector faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny and evolving consumer preferences, which represent persistent risks. The current valuation, with a P/E ratio of 25.07, is in line with sector averages, suggesting that the market has largely priced in current growth expectations.
PM Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$185.50
Day Range
$181.55 to $186.25
Prev Close
$184.73
Volume
3.87M
52-Week Range
$142.11 to $207.76
Market Cap
$289.45B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Consumer Defensive)
Performance vs VDC
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (0.0112% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
PM Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+13.08% Upside
Median of 16 analysts (12-month)
$210.00
AI Technical Analysis
Philip Morris International Inc. is currently trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages, at $185.71 versus $188.06 and $187.88 respectively, indicating near-term downward pressure. However, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average of $174.69, suggesting that the longer-term uptrend is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.94, which falls into the neutral momentum category, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD is currently at -0.78776, indicating bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the 200-day moving average at $174.69, while resistance can be observed around the 50-day moving average at $188.06. Trading volume on the latest day was 3.87 million shares, slightly above the average volume of 3.81 million shares, suggesting moderate investor interest. The current technical setup suggests a cautious outlook, with potential for a short-term pullback towards support if selling pressure continues, but the longer-term trend remains supported by the 200-day SMA.
ProTips
- Philip Morris International Inc. pays a dividend yield of approximately 3.17%, offering a steady income stream for investors in addition to potential capital appreciation.
- The stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating near-term weakness, but remains above its 200-day moving average, suggesting the longer-term uptrend is intact. Monitor support at $174.69.
- Given the mature nature of the tobacco industry and ongoing regulatory scrutiny, investors should maintain a diversified portfolio and consider position sizing carefully to manage sector-specific risks.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong EPS Beat in Latest Earnings Report
Philip Morris International Inc. reported a 200% EPS surprise on August 25, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations and indicating strong operational performance.
Source: Company Earnings ReleaseBullish
Continued Growth in Reduced-Risk Products
Successful expansion and consumer adoption of Philip Morris International's heated tobacco and e-vapor products could drive future revenue growth and offset declines in traditional cigarette sales.
Source: Company StrategyBearish
Ongoing Regulatory Scrutiny
The tobacco industry faces continuous regulatory pressure globally, including potential new taxes, marketing restrictions, and product bans, which could negatively impact sales and profitability.
Source: Industry AnalysisBearish
Intensifying Competition
Competition from both established tobacco companies and new entrants in the reduced-risk product market poses a threat to Philip Morris International's market share and pricing power.
Source: Market ResearchMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Philip Morris International Inc. over the next 6-12 months anticipates continued trading within a range, potentially testing its 200-day moving average support around $174.69 if near-term technical weakness persists, or consolidating around current levels if momentum stabilizes. Analysts project revenue growth of approximately 7.00% for the current year, with a median price target of $210, suggesting that the stock is currently undervalued relative to its future earnings potential and analyst expectations. The company's strategic focus on transitioning to reduced-risk products is expected to be a key driver of sustained revenue and profitability. Potential upside catalysts include stronger-than-expected adoption of its heated tobacco and e-vapor products, favorable regulatory developments in key markets, or successful product innovation that captures greater market share. Conversely, downside risks include stricter government regulations, increased excise taxes, intensified competition, or a slower-than-anticipated consumer shift away from traditional cigarettes. Any significant negative regulatory news or a failure to gain traction with new product categories could pressure the stock and alter its trajectory.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 289.45B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.07 |
| EPS (TTM) | 7.28 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.17% |
| 52 Week High | 207.76 |
| 52 Week Low | 142.11 |
Philip Morris International Inc. exhibits a P/E ratio of 25.07, which aligns with the sector average of 25.07, suggesting a fair valuation relative to its peers. The company's revenue growth is projected at 7.00% for the current year, with expectations for continued growth of 6.00% next year. Profitability metrics, such as Net Profit Margin, are not directly provided but the EPS of $7.28 indicates solid earnings power. The dividend yield stands at approximately 3.17%, offering a steady income stream to investors. The balance sheet strength is not detailed with debt-to-equity or cash figures, but the consistent revenue growth and positive EPS suggest operational efficiency. The company's strategy to transition towards reduced-risk products is a key factor in its long-term fundamental outlook, aiming to offset declining traditional cigarette volumes. While valuation appears reasonable, the company operates in a mature and highly regulated industry, which could limit significant upside potential without further innovation or market expansion.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Philip Morris International Inc. demonstrated a remarkable 200% EPS surprise in its most recent earnings report on August 25, 2026, with actual EPS at $0.08 against an estimate of -$0.08, leading to a 0.09% price increase. Prior to this, the company had shown a pattern of modest beats, such as a 7.32% surprise in July 2026 and a 2.94% surprise in May 2026. The earnings trajectory indicates an ability to exceed analyst expectations, particularly in the most recent period, which could signal improving operational performance or successful cost management.
Key Risks
Philip Morris International Inc. faces significant regulatory risks inherent to the tobacco industry, including potential new restrictions on product sales, marketing, and taxation across various global markets. Competition from both traditional tobacco companies and emerging players in the reduced-risk product space remains intense, potentially pressuring market share and margins. Also, evolving consumer preferences and increasing health consciousness could lead to a sustained decline in demand for tobacco products, impacting long-term revenue and profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 42.94 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.79 |
| SMA 50 | 188.06 |
| SMA 200 | 174.69 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($188.06) above the 200-day SMA ($174.69), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.02
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
-0.08
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
PM Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🟢 LONG ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$182.00
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
AGGRESSIVE
$185.71
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$174.93
MAX LOSS
-3.9%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (42.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$191.10
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$200.20
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$209.30
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for PM is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 9, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in PM in September 2016 would be worth about $18,939 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PM today could grow to about $19,448 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $53,940 and a bear case around $7,012. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
PM Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $242 for PM by 2030 in the base case, from $186 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $127. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $144 | $198 | $274 |
| 2028 | $134 | $212 | $335 |
| 2029 | $130 | $227 | $396 |
| 2030 | $127 | $242 | $462 |
| 2031 | $126 | $259 | $533 |
| 2032 | $126 | $277 | $610 |
| 2033 | $126 | $296 | $695 |
| 2034 | $127 | $316 | $787 |
| 2035 | $128 | $338 | $889 |
| 2036 | $130 | $361 | $1,002 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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PM Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$28.8M
6 Transactions
Insiders
16
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$4.8M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2026 | OLCZAK JACEK
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 80.0K | $14.6M |
| Oct 23, 2024 | CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 101.9K | $13.2M |
| Feb 22, 2024 | CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 95.0K | $8.6M |
| Feb 17, 2022 | CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 75.0K | $8.3M |
| May 11, 2018 | CAMILLERI LOUIS C
Director
|
Sell | 100.0K | $8.2M |
| Feb 17, 2023 | CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 80.0K | $8.0M |
| Feb 19, 2026 | BABEAU EMMANUEL
Officer
|
Sell | 33.8K | $6.1M |
| Feb 20, 2025 | CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
Chairman of the Board
|
Sell | 40.6K | $6.1M |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OLCZAK JACEK
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 40.0K | $6.0M |
| Apr 24, 2019 | CAMILLERI LOUIS C
Director
|
Sell | 70.0K | $5.8M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Philip Morris International Inc.'s consensus rating?
Philip Morris International Inc. currently holds a 'Buy' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. This rating is supported by a consensus score of 73 out of 100, reflecting a generally positive outlook among analysts covering the stock.
What is the median analyst price target for Philip Morris International Inc. stock?
The median analyst price target for Philip Morris International Inc. is $210.00. With the current stock price at $185.71, this target suggests a potential upside of 13.1% for investors.
How has Philip Morris International Inc. performed in recent earnings reports?
Philip Morris International Inc. has shown mixed but recently strong earnings performance. The latest report on August 25, 2026, revealed a significant 200% EPS beat, and previous quarters also showed positive surprises, indicating an ability to exceed analyst expectations.
What are the key technical indicators for Philip Morris International Inc.?
Technically, Philip Morris International Inc. is trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages but above its 200-day moving average. The RSI is neutral at 42.94, and the MACD indicates bearish momentum, suggesting a cautious near-term outlook.
What is the long-term outlook for Philip Morris International Inc.?
The long-term outlook for Philip Morris International Inc. is cautiously optimistic, driven by its strategic shift towards reduced-risk products and consistent revenue growth projections. However, regulatory challenges and evolving consumer habits remain key factors to monitor.
What are the main risks facing Philip Morris International Inc.?
The primary risks for Philip Morris International Inc. include stringent regulatory environments in the tobacco industry, intense competition in both traditional and reduced-risk product markets, and potential shifts in consumer preferences away from tobacco consumption.
Does Philip Morris International Inc. pay a dividend?
Yes, Philip Morris International Inc. pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.17%. This provides a regular income stream for shareholders.
How does Philip Morris International Inc. compare to its sector averages?
Philip Morris International Inc.'s P/E ratio of 25.07 is in line with the sector average of 25.07. Projected revenue growth for the current year is 7.00%, aligning with the sector average of 10.00%.