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As of September 26, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) trades at $24.36. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Buy with a fair value of $36.00, 47.8% above the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $36.00 across 10 analysts. RSI at 60 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $22.39.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
Firefly Aerospace Inc. NASDAQ
$24.36
1.270 (5.50%)
At close: Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
70 / 100
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is trading at $24.36, above its 50-day SMA of $22.39 but below its 200-day SMA of $27.79. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, increasing by 656.9% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the sector median of 11.7%. This rapid expansion is reflected in its price-to-sales ratio of 14.21, which is considerably higher than the sector average of 4.00. Despite the strong top-line performance, FLY is currently loss-making, with a negative EPS of -4.94 and a net profit margin of -129.06%. The company's balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, indicating minimal leverage. Analyst sentiment is predominantly positive, with a consensus rating of Buy and a median price target of $36, suggesting a substantial upside potential of 47.8% from the current price. The primary risk lies in the company's path to profitability amidst its aggressive growth phase.
FLY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$23.31
Day Range
$23.30 to $25.58
Prev Close
$23.09
Volume
5.29M
52-Week Range
$16.00 to $62.17
Market Cap
$4.08B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, FLY trades at 14.21x, +255% versus the sector average of 4.00x.
FLY Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, FLY beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often "priced in" or investors are selling the news.
FLY Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+47.78% Upside
Median of 10 analysts (12-month)
$36.00
AI Technical Analysis
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is showing bullish momentum, trading above its 50-day and 20-day SMAs at $22.39 and $22.33 respectively, with its RSI at a healthy 60.16. However, the stock remains below its 200-day SMA of $27.79, indicating a longer-term downtrend is still in effect. Volume has been notably strong, with the latest session at 5.29 million shares, 49.8% above the average, suggesting increased investor interest. Key support is seen around the $22.39 level (50-day SMA), while resistance lies at the $27.79 mark (200-day SMA). The current technical setup suggests potential for a near-term upward move if the stock can break decisively above its 200-day moving average, but caution is warranted given the overhead resistance.
ProTips
- Monitor Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s (FLY) progress towards profitability closely, as its current valuation is heavily reliant on future earnings potential.
- Consider the significant revenue growth as a key driver, but be aware of the technical resistance at the 200-day SMA of $27.79.
- Given the company's rapid expansion and current losses, ensure any investment aligns with a high-risk tolerance and a long-term investment horizon.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Acceleration
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) reported 656.9% YoY revenue growth, with current quarter estimates at $103.2M (+235.00% YoY), indicating significant market traction and demand for its services.
Source: Company Reports & Analyst EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
With a consensus rating of Buy and a median analyst price target of $36, analysts see substantial upside potential of 47.8% for FLY, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects.
Source: Wall Street AnalystsBullish
Narrower-than-Expected Loss in Recent Earnings
For the quarter ending June 2026, FLY reported an EPS of -0.42, beating the estimated -0.53 by 20.75%, suggesting improving operational efficiency.
Source: Company Earnings ReportNeutral
Parent Company Stake Reduction
AEROEQUITY GP L.L.C, a parent/institutional holder, has reduced its stake by $384 million. This is considered a corporate restructuring rather than a bearish signal from management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Sustained Negative Profitability
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) continues to report significant losses, with a net profit margin of -129.06% and negative EPS, posing a risk if revenue growth falters or costs escalate.
Source: Company FinancialsMarket Outlook
The outlook for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is cautiously optimistic, driven by its exceptional revenue growth and positive analyst sentiment, with a median price target of $36 suggesting a 47.8% upside. The company is expected to continue its rapid expansion, with revenue estimates for next year projecting $657.8 million, a 56.00% increase. The primary challenge remains achieving profitability, as evidenced by current negative EPS and profit margins. If FLY can successfully manage its costs and move towards positive earnings, the current valuation may prove justified. Upside catalysts include continued strong contract wins and successful execution of its launch services, while downside risks involve potential delays in achieving profitability, increased competition, or a broader market downturn impacting growth stocks.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 4.08B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -4.94 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 62.17 |
| 52 Week Low | 16.00 |
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) exhibits an extremely high revenue growth rate of 656.9%, far exceeding the sector median of 11.7%, which is a primary driver for its elevated price-to-sales ratio of 14.21 compared to the sector average of 4.00. While this growth is impressive, the company is not yet profitable, reporting a negative EPS of -4.94 and a net profit margin of -129.06%, indicating significant operational costs or investment in expansion. The company's return on equity is also significantly negative at -57.95%. However, its financial health is bolstered by a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, suggesting minimal financial risk from leverage. The current valuation appears stretched based on profitability metrics, but the market is pricing in substantial future growth, as evidenced by the positive analyst sentiment and price targets.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) most recently reported a narrower-than-expected loss for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of -0.42 against an estimated -0.53, representing a 20.75% surprise. This followed a slight miss in the prior quarter, where actual EPS was 0.38 versus an estimate of 0.39. The company's revenue growth remains exceptionally strong, with current quarter estimates showing a +235.00% year-over-year increase to $103.2 million. Despite the recent earnings beat, the stock saw a modest 0.68% gain on the reporting date, suggesting that the market is more focused on the company's long-term growth trajectory and path to profitability rather than short-term earnings fluctuations.
Key Risks
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) faces significant risks related to its current lack of profitability, with a significantly negative net profit margin of -129.06% and EPS of -4.94. The company's high price-to-sales ratio of 14.21, while supported by rapid revenue growth, leaves it vulnerable to any slowdown in expansion or failure to achieve future profitability targets. Also, the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, indicating potential for further downside if broader market sentiment shifts or company-specific challenges emerge.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 60.16 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.03 |
| SMA 50 | 22.39 |
| SMA 200 | 27.79 |
RSI
Bullish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $22.39, 200-day: $27.79), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.40
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.31
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.16
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with FLY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
FLY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$23.87
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$24.36
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$20.37
MAX LOSS
-14.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (60.2) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$25.07
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$26.26
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$27.45
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
FLY is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 4.14%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 26, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in FLY in August 2025 would be worth about $4,036 today, compared with about $12,200 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in FLY today could grow to about $9,430 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $71,542 and a bear case around $1,243. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
FLY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $23.79 for FLY by 2030 in the base case, from $24.36 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $6.61. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $12.76 | $24.22 | $45.96 |
| 2028 | $9.73 | $24.08 | $59.59 |
| 2029 | $7.89 | $23.93 | $72.62 |
| 2030 | $6.61 | $23.79 | $85.72 |
| 2031 | $5.64 | $23.66 | $99.13 |
| 2032 | $4.89 | $23.52 | $113 |
| 2033 | $4.29 | $23.38 | $127 |
| 2034 | $3.79 | $23.24 | $142 |
| 2035 | $3.38 | $23.11 | $158 |
| 2036 | $3.03 | $22.97 | $174 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using FLY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
People Also Watch
FLY Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.1M
5 Transactions
Sold
$384.3M
3 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$48.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | AEROEQUITY GP L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.0M | $384.0M |
| May 18, 2026 | WHEELER DAVID LEIGH
General Counsel
|
Sell | 3.8K | $169.9K |
| Apr 17, 2026 | WHEELER DAVID LEIGH
General Counsel
|
Sell | 3.8K | $169.6K |
| Aug 4, 2026 | O'KONEK NATHAN
General Counsel
|
Grant | 103.2K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | BOLAND RYAN MICHAEL
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | EMERSON CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER IV
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | KONERT KIRK MICHAEL
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | LUSCZAKOSKI JONATHAN DONALD
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | MCALLISTER KEVIN G.
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has a projected base case price of $23.79 for 2030, with a downside scenario of $6.61 and an upside scenario of $85.72. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets.
Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. stock a buy right now?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is currently rated a Buy with a consensus score of 70. The median analyst price target is $36, suggesting a potential upside of 47.8% from the current price of $24.36.
What is Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s revenue growth rate?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is experiencing exceptional revenue growth, reporting a 656.9% increase year-over-year. Analysts project continued strong growth, with current quarter revenue estimates at $103.2 million, a +235.00% increase.
How does Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s valuation compare to its sector?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has a price-to-sales ratio of 14.21, which is significantly higher than the Industrials sector median of 4.00. This premium valuation is driven by its rapid revenue growth, but it also indicates higher expectations for future performance.
What are the main risks facing Firefly Aerospace Inc.?
The primary risks for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) include its current lack of profitability, evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -129.06%, and its high valuation metrics relative to its current earnings. The stock also faces technical resistance above its 200-day moving average.
Has Firefly Aerospace Inc. reported recent earnings?
Yes, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) most recently reported a narrower-than-expected loss for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of -0.42 against an estimate of -0.53. Revenue growth remains a strong point, with current quarter estimates showing a +235.00% year-over-year increase.
What is the outlook for Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s revenue?
Analysts project strong revenue growth for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY), with current quarter estimates at $103.2 million (+235.00% YoY) and next year's estimates at $657.8 million (+56.00% YoY). This indicates sustained top-line expansion is expected.