Stock·NASDAQ·Industrials
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
- Market cap
- $3.97B
- Dividend yield
- No dividend
- Street target
- $35.00median of 11 analysts
- 52-week range
- $14.45 $62.17
FLY stock forecast today
Where FLY stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.
FLY at a glance
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY): Buy, 63/100 on CleaRank's AI score.
- Trend Mixed: the price is above its 50-day but below its 200-day moving average ($20.43 and $26.83).
- Insiders Insiders sold $384.3M and bought $1.1M over the last 18 months.
Figures as of November 10, 2026.
CleaRank Financial AI
FLY, or Firefly Aerospace Inc., earns a Buy rating from CleaRank with a model score of 63/100.
Momentum is the strongest contributor, driven by a 14-day RSI of 62.1 in the bullish zone and a positive MACD line. Valuation is the largest drag, as the P/S of 13.81 sits 245.3% above the sector median. Trend is mixed: the stock is 16.03% above its 50-day average of $20.43 yet 11.67% below its 200-day average of $26.83. Across the past year, the price climbed 23.18%.
Only on CleaRank
Figures we compute ourselves from FLY's own price, earnings and insider-filing history. Tap one to see it in context.
FLY stock price and trading
The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.
Trend checks
1/4Price above its 50-day average ›
The price of $23.70 is 16.0% above the 50-day simple moving average of $20.43.Price below its 200-day average ›
The price is 11.7% below the 200-day simple moving average of $26.83.50-day average below the 200-day ›
The 50-day average ($20.43) is 23.9% below the 200-day average ($26.83), the arrangement of a falling longer-term trend.In the lower half of its 52-week range ›
The price sits at 19% of its 52-week range, between $14.45 and $62.17.
FLY share price
Pick a period: each tab shows how far FLY has moved over it, to the last close.
Today's trading
Where FLY sits inside today's range and its 52-week range.
FLY fundamentals and valuation
Valuation against the sector, and the revenue and earnings behind it.
Valuation and quality checks
0/2P/S above the sector median ›
The price-to-sales ratio of 13.81 is 245.3% above the sector median of 4.0.Not profitable over the last 12 months ›
Net income over the last 12 months was -$370.4M on revenue of $287.0M, a net margin of -129.1%.
Key statistics
The headline figures for FLY.
As of November 10, 2026, FLY trades at $23.70, with a market value of $3.97B.
What the numbers say
CleaRank Financial AI's reading of FLY's valuation, growth and risks.
FLY is priced richly against its sales: its P/S of 13.81 is 245.3% above the sector median of 4.0. Its market value stands at $4.0B.
Firefly Aerospace is currently unprofitable, with a net margin of -129.06% and an operating margin of -80.89%. Year on year, revenue expanded 656.90% in the latest quarter, running 645.2 percentage points ahead of the Industrials sector median of 11.7%. Return on equity is -57.95%, which sits below the sector median of 17.8%. Debt-to-equity is 0.04.
FLY's earnings outlook is still in the red. Analysts forecast EPS of -$1.87 for this fiscal year, followed by -$1.76 the year after.
FLY's typical daily move is 9.05%. The price is 61.88% below its 52-week high of $62.17. Over the last 18 months, insider sales totalled $384.3M against $1.1M of purchases; planned sales and tax sales on vesting shares make selling a weaker signal than buying.
FLY against the Industrials sector
How FLY compares with the median Industrials stock CleaRank tracks.
Price to sales vs sector: On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, FLY trades at 13.81x, +245% versus the sector median of 4.00x.
Return vs XLI: Since Aug 7, 2025, FLY has lost 60.7% against a gain of 12.0% for XLI.
Performance against XLI
FLY and the Industrials sector fund over the same days.
Revenue and earnings
How much FLY sells, and how much of it becomes profit.
The quarterly bars end with Q1 '26 (the quarter to March 31, 2026); FLY reported again on August 11, 2026, and that quarter is not in our statement data yet. The 12-month figures come from the statistics feed and may include it.
Revenue growth: Revenue grew 163.0% in FY2025 to $160M, from $60.8M a year earlier.
Profit margin: The net margin was -186.6% in FY2025, up from -380.2% the year before.
Loss-making: FLY lost $298M in FY2025.
FLY AI analysis and technical indicators
CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.
Momentum checks
3/3RSI not overbought or oversold ›
The 14-day RSI is 62.1, showing bullish momentum without being overbought.RSI above 50 ›
An RSI of 62.1 is above the 50 midpoint, so buyers have had the upper hand over the last 14 days.MACD line above zero ›
The MACD line is positive, so the 12-day average is above the 26-day average.
CleaRank Financial AI analysis of FLY
The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is caught between its two moving averages. The price of $23.70 sits 11.67% below the 200-day average of $26.83, yet it is 16.03% above the 50-day average of $20.43. Across its 52-week range the stock stands at 19%, and the price is 64.07% above the 52-week low of $14.45. Because the averages trail the price, the 50-day sits 23.87% below the 200-day.
On momentum, the 14-day RSI reads 62.1, in the bullish zone, below the overbought line, with the MACD line positive. The three-month move runs against the others: the price rose 18.50% over the past month, fell 10.09% over the past three months and rose 23.18% over the past year.
Rating reaffirmed ›
B. Riley Securities kept its Buy rating on November 4, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, B. Riley Securities, November 4, 2026
New analyst coverage ›
Barclays started coverage at Equal-Weight on October 9, 2026.
Source: Analyst action, Barclays, October 9, 2026
- Watch the two nearest levels: the 200-day SMA at $26.83 above the price and the 50-day SMA at $20.43 below it.
- A 14-day RSI of 62.1 lands in the bullish zone, and the MACD line is positive. Readings above 70 or below 30 signal stretched momentum.
The trend is mixed: FLY is above its 50-day average at $20.43 but below its 200-day average at $26.83. A close above the 200-day would turn both signals up, and a close below the 50-day would turn both down. In the meantime the price sits between the 50-day SMA ($20.43) underneath and the 200-day SMA ($26.83) overhead.
FLY's RSI sits in the bullish band, a reading that backs the current direction without signalling an overstretched move.
Technical indicators
Momentum and trend for FLY, from its daily closes.
As of November 10, 2026, with FLY at $23.70, its 14-day RSI is 62.1 (showing bullish momentum without being overbought), its 50-day simple moving average is $20.43 and its 200-day is $26.83.
Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of November 10, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26). How we calculate these
What FLY moves with
Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.
As of November 10, 2026, FLY's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.40 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.43 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.31 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.15 with gold (XAU).
FLY price target and analyst forecast
The analysts' target range and how their ratings split.
Analysts checks
2/3Most analysts rate it a buy ›
7 of 11 analysts rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell.Median target above the price ›
The median 12-month target of $35.00 is 47.7% above the price.Buy share not up from three months ago ›
7 of 11 rate it a buy now, against 7 of 10 three months ago.
FLY Wall Street View
12-month price targets
The price, $23.70, sits below every analyst's target.
Ratings
Recent rating actions
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Keybanc | Maintains | Overweight |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Barclays | Initiates | Equal-Weight |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Roth Capital | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 12, 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | Overweight |
As of November 10, 2026, 11 Wall Street analysts cover FLY: 7 rate it a buy or strong buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell or strong sell. Their 12-month price targets range from $25.00 to $45.00. The median FLY price target is $35.00, 47.7% above the price of $23.70.
Source: TwelveData analyst consensus. Targets and ratings belong to the analysts, not to CleaRank.
FLY risk and volatility
How much it moves day to day, and how it stacks up against similar assets.
Risk profile
How much FLY tends to move, against the market and on its own.
FLY price history and drawdowns
FLY's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.
Track record checks
0/3Typical daily move of 2% or more ›
A typical daily move is 9.05% (the standard deviation of the last 30 daily returns).Not yet recovered from its worst fall ›
The worst fall was 74.9%, from August 2025 to November 2026; the price is still 60.7% below that peak.Trailed the S&P 500 since August 2025 ›
$10,000 invested in August 2025 is now worth $3,927, against $12,022 in the S&P 500 (SPY).
FLY Drawdowns & Recovery
As of November 10, 2026, FLY's worst peak-to-trough fall over the period since August 2025 was -74.9% (August 2025 to November 2026); it is still 60.7% below that peak.
From daily closing values. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.
Growth of $10,000
What $10,000 put into FLY in August 2025 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.
Against the market: FLY trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $3,927.09 against $12,022.
A $10,000 investment in FLY in August 2025 would be worth about $3,927 today, compared with about $12,022 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark with its dividends reinvested.
FLY stock price prediction 2027
Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.
FLY Stock Price Prediction 2027: Simulated Scenarios
The same simulation in share prices, year by year.
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $23.43 for FLY by 2027 in the base case, from $23.70 today (1.0x over 1 year). The 10th-percentile path ends near $12.35. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | 10th percentile | Base case | 90th percentile | range base today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $12.35 | $23.43 | $44.47 |
Method: a lognormal simulation of FLY's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles. How the simulation works
FLY insider trading
What the people running the company have bought and sold.
FLY insider trading
Shares the company's directors and officers bought and sold, from their own filings.
Month by month
Open-market purchases above the line, sales below.
Net insider selling: Insiders bought $1.1M on the open market and sold $384.3M.
As of November 10, 2026, FLY insiders reported 3 open-market sales worth $384.3M and 5 open-market purchases worth $1.1M over the last 18 months; grants and option exercises are not counted.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Jesung Kim
Chief Executive Officer
|
Option | 43.3K | $100.0K |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Nathan O'Konek
General Counsel
|
Grant | 103.2K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Ryan Michael Boland
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Pamela Joyce Braden
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Christopher Plummer Emerson IV
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kirk Michael Konert
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Jonathan Donald Lusczakoski
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kevin G. McAllister
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Thomas Hansueli Zurbuchen
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Aeroequity GP L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.0M | $384.0M |
| May 18, 2026 | David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
|
Sell | 3.8K | $169.9K |
| May 18, 2026 | David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
|
Option | 3.8K | $8.7K |
| Apr 17, 2026 | David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
|
Sell | 3.8K | $169.6K |
| Apr 17, 2026 | David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
|
Option | 3.8K | $8.7K |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Remington Wu
Officer
|
Grant | 10.4K | - |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Jesung Kim
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 52.8K | - |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Russell Shea Ferring
Chief Technology Officer
|
Grant | 15.8K | - |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Darren Ma
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 27.4K | - |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Ramon Gilbert Sanchez
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 18.5K | - |
| Mar 10, 2026 | David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
|
Grant | 25.0K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Ryan Michael Boland
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Pamela Joyce Braden
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Christopher Plummer Emerson IV
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Kirk Michael Konert
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Jonathan Donald Lusczakoski
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Kevin G. McAllister
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Marc Allen Weiser
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Thomas Hansueli Zurbuchen
Director
|
Grant | 3.3K | - |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Ramon Gilbert Sanchez
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 100.0K | - |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Daniel Frank Fermon
Chief Operating Officer
|
Grant | 88.9K | - |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Russell Shea Ferring
Chief Technology Officer
|
Grant | 216.7K | - |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Jesung Kim
Chief Executive Officer
|
Grant | 888.9K | - |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Darren Ma
Chief Financial Officer
|
Grant | 222.2K | - |
| Sep 24, 2025 | David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
|
Grant | 55.6K | - |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Remington Wu
Officer
|
Grant | 30.0K | - |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Aeroequity GP L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Buy | 11.1K | $500.0K |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Pamela Joyce Braden
Director
|
Buy | 8.9K | $400.0K |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Kirk Michael Konert
Director
|
Buy | 3.3K | $150.0K |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Jonathan Donald Lusczakoski
Director
|
Buy | 266 | $12.0K |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Thomas Hansueli Zurbuchen
Director
|
Buy | 800 | $36.0K |
Source: TwelveData, from SEC Form 4 filings
FLY stock forecast: questions people ask
Answered from the figures on this page, as of November 10, 2026.