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As of October 11, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) trades at $20.00. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $20.00, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $36.00 across 10 analysts. RSI at 37 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $22.91.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
Firefly Aerospace Inc. NASDAQ
$20.00
-0.6700 (-3.24%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
59 / 100
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is currently trading at $20.00, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.91 and $27.82), indicating a bearish technical trend. The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth of 656.9%, significantly outpacing the sector median of 11.7%, and Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $36.00, implying an 80% upside. However, FLY is currently loss-making with a negative EPS of $-0.26 and a profit margin of -129.06%, which is a key concern. While the company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.04, its return on equity is a negative -57.95%. The significant insider selling, though dominated by a parent company divestiture, adds a layer of caution to the outlook.
FLY Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$20.72
Day Range
$19.65 to $20.96
Prev Close
$20.67
Volume
2.85M
52-Week Range
$16.00 to $62.17
Market Cap
$3.35B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Industrials)
Performance vs ITA
Sector Position Analysis
On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, FLY trades at 12.06x, +201% versus the sector average of 4.00x.
FLY Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
FLY Analysis
Company's Health
2/5
AI Technical Analysis
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.91 and $27.82), signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.9, indicating bearish momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also negative at -0.319. Volume has been below average recently, down 22.8%, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from buyers. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the limited trading history and current downtrend, while resistance is expected around the 50-day SMA. The current price action suggests further downside risk until a clear bullish reversal pattern emerges on the charts.
ProTips
- Insider selling is dominated by a parent company divestiture, suggesting corporate restructuring rather than a bearish signal from management.
- The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.91 and $27.82), indicating bearish momentum; consider waiting for a technical reversal before initiating a long position.
- Given the company's current unprofitability and high price-to-sales ratio, investors should closely monitor progress towards positive earnings and cash flow generation.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Strong Revenue Growth Projections
Wall Street revenue estimates show significant growth, with current year revenue projected to increase by 174.00% to $438.5 million, indicating strong market demand for FLY's services.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBullish
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The majority of Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $36.00, suggesting an 80% upside potential from the current price.
Source: Wall Street ConsensusNeutral
Parent Company Divestiture
AEROEQUITY GP L.L.C, the parent company, has been systematically reducing its stake, representing a significant portion of insider selling. This is viewed as a corporate restructuring, not a bearish signal from company management.
Source: Insider TransactionsBearish
Persistent Unprofitability
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) continues to report negative EPS and profit margins, posing a significant risk to its long-term financial health and valuation.
Source: Company FundamentalsBearish
Bearish Technical Indicators
The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.91 and $27.82), with a bearish RSI status, suggesting potential for further price declines.
Source: Technical AnalysisMarket Outlook
The base case scenario for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) anticipates continued strong revenue growth, driven by its expansion in the aerospace and defense sector. Analysts project revenue to reach $657.8 million next year, a 56.00% increase. However, the path to profitability remains a significant hurdle, with current EPS estimates remaining negative. Upside catalysts could include successful contract wins and technological advancements that accelerate revenue and move the company towards profitability. Conversely, failure to achieve profitability, increased competition, or further dilution from equity offerings could pressure the stock price, potentially testing the downside projection of $5.21.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 3.35B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -0.2600 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 62.17 |
| 52 Week Low | 16.00 |
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) exhibits a high price-to-sales ratio of 12.06, significantly above the sector median of 4.0, indicating that the stock may be overvalued relative to its current revenue. The company is currently loss-making, with a negative EPS of $-0.26 and a profit margin of -129.06%, which contrasts sharply with the sector's positive median return on equity of 17.8%. Despite these fundamental weaknesses, Wall Street revenue estimates show strong growth, with next year's revenue projected to increase by 56.00% to $657.8 million. The company's balance sheet appears healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, but the negative profitability metrics raise concerns about its long-term sustainability without further funding or a path to profitability.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has reported a negative EPS of $-0.26 for the current quarter, which is an improvement from the year-ago EPS of $-0.5482. Wall Street analysts estimate a next quarter EPS of $-0.48409 and a current year EPS of $-1.89675. While revenue growth is projected to be strong, the company remains unprofitable, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving positive earnings.
Key Risks
The primary risk for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is its persistent unprofitability, with a negative EPS and profit margin, despite significant revenue growth. The stock is also trading below key moving averages, indicating bearish technical momentum and potential for further price declines. Also, the high price-to-sales ratio suggests the current valuation may not be sustainable if profitability is not achieved in the near future.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 36.90 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.32 |
| SMA 50 | 22.91 |
| SMA 200 | 27.82 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Bearish
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $22.91, 200-day: $27.82), price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.37
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.39
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.44
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.16
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with FLY? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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FLY Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$19.80
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$20.00
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$17.82
MAX LOSS
-10.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (36.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$20.39
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$20.79
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$21.38
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
FLY is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 3.98%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in FLY in August 2025 would be worth about $3,314 today, compared with about $12,314 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in FLY today could grow to about $8,526 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $64,687 and a bear case around $1,124. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
FLY Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $18.76 for FLY by 2030 in the base case, from $20.00 today (0.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $5.21. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on FLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $10.37 | $19.68 | $37.36 |
| 2028 | $7.83 | $19.37 | $47.95 |
| 2029 | $6.28 | $19.07 | $57.85 |
| 2030 | $5.21 | $18.76 | $67.60 |
| 2031 | $4.41 | $18.47 | $77.39 |
| 2032 | $3.78 | $18.18 | $87.33 |
| 2033 | $3.28 | $17.89 | $97.47 |
| 2034 | $2.87 | $17.61 | $108 |
| 2035 | $2.53 | $17.33 | $118 |
| 2036 | $2.25 | $17.05 | $129 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using FLY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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FLY Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
$1.1M
5 Transactions
Sold
$384.3M
3 Transactions
Insiders
17
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$48.2M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | AEROEQUITY GP L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
|
Sell | 8.0M | $384.0M |
| May 18, 2026 | WHEELER DAVID LEIGH
General Counsel
|
Sell | 3.8K | $169.9K |
| Apr 17, 2026 | WHEELER DAVID LEIGH
General Counsel
|
Sell | 3.8K | $169.6K |
| Sep 22, 2026 | KIM JESUNG
Chief Executive Officer
|
Option | 43.3K | $100.0K |
| Aug 4, 2026 | O'KONEK NATHAN
General Counsel
|
Grant | 103.2K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | BOLAND RYAN MICHAEL
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | EMERSON CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER IV
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | KONERT KIRK MICHAEL
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
| Jun 4, 2026 | LUSCZAKOSKI JONATHAN DONALD
Director
|
Grant | 3.6K | - |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s (FLY) stock price is projected to be $18.76 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $5.21, while the upside projection reaches $67.60. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets.
Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock a buy right now?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is currently rated a Hold. While Wall Street analysts have a consensus 'Buy' rating and a median price target of $36.00, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and remains unprofitable, presenting near-term risks.
What are the biggest risks facing Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
The primary risks for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) include its current unprofitability, indicated by a negative EPS and profit margin, and bearish technical indicators such as trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($22.91 and $27.82). The high price-to-sales ratio also suggests a potentially stretched valuation.
How is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) performing financially?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is experiencing strong revenue growth, projected to increase by 174.00% this year to $438.5 million. However, the company is currently unprofitable, with a negative EPS of $-0.26 and a profit margin of -129.06%.
What is the Wall Street consensus on Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Wall Street analysts have a consensus 'Buy' rating for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY), with 1 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings among 10 analysts. The median price target is $36.00, suggesting an 80% upside from the current price.
What is the outlook for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) revenue growth?
Revenue growth for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) is projected to be strong, with next quarter's revenue estimated to grow by +137.00% year-over-year to $136.9 million, and current year revenue expected to increase by +174.00% to $438.5 million.
Are there any significant insider transactions for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Insiders at Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) are net sellers, with $1.1M in total purchases versus $384.3M in total sales. However, 100% of the selling value comes from parent company AEROEQUITY GP L.L.C, indicating a corporate restructuring rather than a lack of confidence from management.